Pittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10
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Philadelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?
Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota Vikings
ESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. Bills
Broncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference5 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared5 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below AveragesMinnesota VikingsO'Connell: Vikings Have to 'Improve Offensively at Rapid Pace'InjuryBlake Cashman: Active → Cleared6 h agoVikings DeskVikings go 0-for-8 on third down and never get a receiver open in a 23-6 loss to Bills6 h agoInjuryWill Reichard: Active → Cleared6 h agoBills DeskJosh Allen's picks and sacks didn't matter: Bills force three turnovers in Minneapolis6 h ago
Pro Football RumorsSeahawks Interested In Adding WR DepthInjuryGreg Dortch: Active → Cleared6 h agoESPNJosh Allen and the Bills move to 7-1 with a 23-6 win over the sputtering VikingsBuffalo BillsBills 23 , Vikings 6 | Final Score, recap + highlightsMinnesota VikingsVikings vs. Bills Game Observations: Offense's Misfires & Turnovers Add Up
InjuryCarl Granderson: Active → Cleared7 h agoESPNJosh Allen, Bills outlast Vikings 23-6 on MNFESPNJosh Allen leads Bills to win over tough Vikings' defense
ESPNCarson Beck next man up for CardinalsEvery game re-judged from the snaps: the margin the plays were worth, the win probability that margin carries, and the results that lied.
NYJ 2losses the play said they should have won↳Bottom line7 of these 136 games went against the play. The biggest: GB @ NYJ, where the Jets lost with a 85% deserved win probability. 18 more were coin flips.
Jets played like a 5.7-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 85% of the time. Jets lost.
The swingQ4 4:49 · NYJ · −26 pts of win probability. 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to GB 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 23-S.Moore pushed ob at NYJ 19 for 63 yards (82-A.Smith).
Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.
The swingQ4 1:24 · CAR · −33 pts of win probability. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play…
Bengals played like a 3.8-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 76% of the time. Bengals lost.
The swingQ4 0:53 · CIN · −42 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at PIT 46 for -8 yards (99-D.Harmon). FUMBLES (99-D.Harmon) [99-D.Harmon], RECOVERED by PIT-69-S.Joseph at CIN 49.
Cowboys played like a 3.5-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 74% of the time. Cowboys lost.
The swingQ4 0:01 · BAL · +27 pts of win probability. 33-T.Loop 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.
Rams played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Rams lost.
The swingQ4 5:01 · LA · −53 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Jets played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Jets lost.
The swingQ4 6:11 · NYJ · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (31-T.Stukes).
Chiefs played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Chiefs lost.
The swingQ4 0:04 · KC · −38 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).
Broncos won as the underdog of the snaps: 32%, with Seahawks better by 2.5.
Cowboys won as the underdog of the snaps: 36%, with Texans better by 1.9.
Titans won as the underdog of the snaps: 37%, with Colts better by 1.9.
Seahawks won as the underdog of the snaps: 38%, with Chargers better by 1.7.
Browns won a coin flip: the snaps had it 41% for Browns.
Lions won a coin flip: the snaps had it 42% for Lions.
Bills won a coin flip: the snaps had it 44% for Bills.
Bills won a coin flip: the snaps had it 45% for Bills.
↳Bottom lineBiggest gap of the season: GB @ NYJ in Week 2, 85%.
| Game | Wk | Score | Deserved | Deserved WP | Gap | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 GB @ NYJ | 2 | 20-17 | NYJ +5.7 | 85% | 85% | Robbed |
DEN @  CAR | 9 | 26-21 | CAR +4.4 | 79% | 79% | Robbed |
 CIN @ PIT | 3 | 27-30 | CIN +3.8 | 76% | 76% | Robbed |
 BAL @  DAL | 3 | 34-31 | DAL +3.5 | 74% | 74% | Robbed |
 LAR @ DEN | 3 | 26-30 | LAR +3.1 | 71% | 71% | Robbed |
 LV @ NYJ | 8 | 38-33 | NYJ +3.1 | 71% | 71% | Robbed |
 KC @ DEN | 8 | 24-28 | KC +3.1 | 71% | 71% | Robbed |
| SEA @ DEN | 6 | 14-17 | SEA +2.5 | 68% | 68% | Coin flip |
DAL @  HOU | 4 | 34-30 | HOU +1.9 | 64% | 64% | Coin flip |
 TEN @  IND | 6 | 26-20 | IND +1.9 | 63% | 63% | Coin flip |
 LAC @ SEA | 4 | 23-30 | LAC +1.7 | 63% | 63% | Coin flip |
BAL @  CLE | 6 | 10-13 | BAL +1.3 | 60% | 60% | Coin flip |
GB @  DET | 7 | 17-20 | GB +1.1 | 58% | 58% | Coin flip |
| BUF @ LAR | 5 | 37-34 | LAR +0.9 | 56% | 56% | Coin flip |
| BUF @ HOU | 1 | 36-31 | HOU +0.6 | 55% | 55% | Coin flip |
| TEN @ NYG | 3 | 7-12 | TEN +0.3 | 52% | 52% | Coin flip |
 TB @ CIN | 1 | 27-33 | CIN +0.0 | 50% | 50% | Coin flip |
| PHI @ TEN | 2 | 24-20 | PHI +0.1 | 51% | 49% | Coin flip |
| MIN @ TB | 3 | 23-16 | MIN +0.1 | 51% | 49% | Coin flip |
HOU @  JAX | 6 | 34-31 | HOU +0.4 | 53% | 47% | Coin flip |
| KC @ LV | 4 | 30-27 | KC +0.6 | 54% | 46% | Coin flip |
SEA @  WSH | 3 | 31-33 | WSH +0.7 | 55% | 45% | Coin flip |
| NO @ BAL | 2 | 24-17 | NO +0.9 | 57% | 43% | Coin flip |
| IND @ MIN | 7 | 10-16 | MIN +1.0 | 57% | 43% | Coin flip |
 MIA @ MIN | 4 | 10-15 | MIN +1.2 | 58% | 42% | Coin flip |
| HOU @ IND | 3 | 17-19 | IND +1.5 | 61% | 39% | Earned |
| MIA @ NYJ | 7 | 28-25 | MIA +1.6 | 62% | 38% | Earned |
| ARI @ LAR | 6 | 18-16 | ARI +1.9 | 63% | 37% | Earned |
| MIN @ DET | 8 | 15-19 | DET +2.0 | 64% | 36% | Earned |
| LV @ NO | 3 | 35-27 | LV +2.2 | 65% | 35% | Earned |
| NO @ NYG | 6 | 34-27 | NO +2.2 | 65% | 35% | Earned |
| TEN @ CIN | 8 | 36-43 | CIN +2.2 | 65% | 35% | Earned |
 SF @  ATL | 7 | 20-29 | ATL +2.3 | 66% | 34% | Earned |
| GB @ TB | 4 | 17-14 | GB +2.5 | 68% | 33% | Earned |
| PIT @ CLE | 4 | 24-27 | CLE +2.6 | 68% | 32% | Earned |
| WSH @ PHI | 1 | 22-24 | PHI +2.6 | 68% | 32% | Earned |
NYJ @  NE | 6 | 19-26 | NE +2.6 | 68% | 32% | Earned |
| BUF @ LV | 6 | 33-30 | BUF +2.8 | 69% | 31% | Earned |
| CLE @ NO | 9 | 22-23 | NO +3.0 | 71% | 30% | Earned |
NE @  CHI | 7 | 24-30 | CHI +3.6 | 75% | 25% | Earned |
| NO @ DET | 1 | 30-31 | DET +3.7 | 75% | 25% | Earned |
| NYJ @ DET | 3 | 24-31 | DET +3.7 | 75% | 25% | Earned |
| DAL @ NYG | 1 | 20-28 | NYG +3.9 | 76% | 24% | Earned |
| NE @ MIA | 8 | 24-19 | NE +4.0 | 77% | 23% | Earned |
| MIN @ CHI | 2 | 9-3 | MIN +4.1 | 77% | 23% | Earned |
| DET @ CAR | 4 | 26-32 | CAR +4.2 | 78% | 22% | Earned |
| PIT @ NO | 7 | 16-10 | PIT +4.2 | 78% | 22% | Earned |
| WSH @ DAL | 2 | 20-37 | DAL +4.5 | 79% | 21% | Earned |
| JAX @ CIN | 4 | 22-17 | JAX +4.4 | 79% | 21% | Earned |
| DEN @ SF | 4 | 14-24 | SF +4.9 | 81% | 19% | Earned |
| PIT @ TB | 6 | 26-19 | PIT +5.0 | 82% | 18% | Earned |
| NE @ BUF | 4 | 29-26 | NE +5.1 | 82% | 18% | Earned |
| NYG @ WSH | 5 | 27-27 | NYG +2.3 | 66% | 16% | Tie |
| DEN @ LAC | 5 | 23-17 | DEN +5.6 | 84% | 16% | Earned |
| TB @ CHI | 9 | 24-27 | CHI +5.7 | 85% | 15% | Earned |
| NYG @ PHI | 9 | 19-11 | NYG +5.8 | 86% | 14% | Earned |
| ATL @ PIT | 1 | 13-20 | PIT +6.0 | 86% | 14% | Earned |
| LAC @ BUF | 3 | 16-24 | BUF +6.3 | 87% | 13% | Earned |
| CAR @ CLE | 3 | 18-21 | CLE +7.0 | 90% | 10% | Earned |
| IND @ KC | 2 | 30-33 | KC +7.1 | 90% | 10% | Earned |
| BAL @ ATL | 5 | 30-23 | BAL +7.2 | 91% | 10% | Earned |
| LV @ LAC | 2 | 26-14 | LV +7.3 | 91% | 9% | Earned |
| ARI @ DAL | 8 | 33-30 | ARI +7.5 | 91% | 9% | Earned |
| DET @ MIA | 9 | 19-9 | DET +7.5 | 92% | 9% | Earned |
| GB @ MIN | 1 | 22-39 | MIN +7.6 | 92% | 8% | Earned |
| CIN @ MIA | 5 | 31-24 | CIN +7.6 | 92% | 8% | Earned |
| CLE @ TB | 2 | 23-19 | CLE +8.2 | 93% | 7% | Earned |
| JAX @ DEN | 2 | 13-20 | DEN +8.2 | 93% | 7% | Earned |
| NE @ SEA | 1 | 10-13 | SEA +8.9 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| IND @ WSH | 4 | 30-13 | IND +8.9 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| ARI @ SF | 3 | 30-36 | SF +8.9 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| CIN @ HOU | 2 | 20-6 | CIN +9.0 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| TB @ DAL | 5 | 24-16 | TB +9.1 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| CLE @ NYJ | 5 | 12-17 | NYJ +9.1 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| IND @ PIT | 5 | 22-34 | PIT +9.2 | 95% | 5% | Earned |
| LAR @ WSH | 9 | 20-13 | LAR +9.3 | 96% | 5% | Earned |
| CLE @ TEN | 7 | 27-24 | CLE +9.7 | 96% | 4% | Earned |
| NYJ @ CHI | 4 | 12-23 | CHI +10.1 | 97% | 3% | Earned |
| CIN @ ATL | 9 | 34-17 | CIN +10.2 | 97% | 3% | Earned |
| ARI @ NYG | 4 | 24-36 | NYG +10.5 | 97% | 3% | Earned |
| MIA @ LV | 1 | 13-27 | LV +10.6 | 97% | 3% | Earned |
| DAL @ GB | 6 | 13-23 | GB +11.0 | 98% | 2% | Earned |
| NYJ @ TEN | 1 | 23-10 | NYJ +11.1 | 98% | 2% | Earned |
| KC @ MIA | 3 | 24-10 | KC +11.3 | 98% | 2% | Earned |
| PHI @ WSH | 8 | 10-27 | WSH +11.4 | 98% | 2% | Earned |
| DET @ BUF | 2 | 31-41 | BUF +11.5 | 98% | 2% | Earned |
| PIT @ NE | 2 | 3-20 | NE +11.6 | 98% | 2% | Earned |
| WSH @ SF | 6 | 17-23 | SF +12.1 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| CLE @ PIT | 8 | 6-27 | PIT +12.1 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| CHI @ CAR | 1 | 59-37 | CHI +12.4 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| DET @ ARI | 5 | 45-21 | DET +12.5 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| CAR @ PHI | 6 | 25-14 | CAR +13.1 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| CHI @ ATL | 6 | 31-23 | CHI +13.2 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| TB @ CAR | 7 | 43-13 | TB +13.3 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| SF @ SEA | 5 | 32-29 | SF +13.7 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| DEN @ ARI | 7 | 30-16 | DEN +13.8 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| CAR @ GB | 8 | 19-27 | GB +13.7 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| DAL @ IND | 9 | 27-23 | DAL +13.8 | 99% | 1% | Earned |
| PHI @ CHI | 3 | 7-27 | CHI +14.1 | 100% | 1% | Earned |
| PHI @ JAX | 5 | 17-19 | JAX +14.1 | 100% | 1% | Earned |
| ARI @ LAC | 1 | 26-14 | ARI +14.4 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| MIN @ NO | 5 | 23-13 | MIN +14.7 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| ATL @ TB | 8 | 0-16 | TB +14.6 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| LAC @ KC | 6 | 6-22 | KC +15.1 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| KC @ SEA | 7 | 3-20 | SEA +15.3 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| NYG @ HOU | 7 | 27-21 | NYG +15.4 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| DAL @ PHI | 7 | 38-21 | DAL +16.0 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| CHI @ SEA | 8 | 34-17 | CHI +15.8 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| LV @ SF | 9 | 17-38 | SF +15.9 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| ARI @ SEA | 9 | 3-17 | SEA +15.7 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| SF @ LAR | 1 | 27-7 | SF +17.3 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| DEN @ KC | 1 | 10-31 | KC +17.7 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| ATL @ GB | 3 | 35-14 | ATL +16.9 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| ATL @ NO | 4 | 45-24 | ATL +18.1 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| HOU @ TEN | 5 | 26-3 | HOU +18.0 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| CIN @ BAL | 7 | 35-13 | CIN +16.8 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| LAR @ LV | 7 | 35-21 | LAR +18.0 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| GB @ NE | 9 | 45-27 | GB +17.0 | >99% | <1% | Earned |
| BAL @ IND | 1 | 41-23 | BAL +25.1 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| CLE @ JAX | 1 | 10-34 | JAX +18.4 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| CAR @ ATL | 2 | 34-3 | CAR +24.9 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| MIA @ SF | 2 | 13-35 | SF +20.4 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| SEA @ ARI | 2 | 31-7 | SEA +19.9 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| NYG @ LAR | 2 | 6-28 | LAR +33.6 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| NE @ JAX | 3 | 6-35 | JAX +23.6 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| LAR @ PHI | 4 | 24-20 | LAR +19.6 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| TEN @ BAL | 4 | 18-24 | BAL +18.2 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| LV @ NE | 5 | 17-45 | NE +26.3 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| CHI @ GB | 5 | 7-31 | GB +27.4 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| BAL @ BUF | 8 | 10-36 | BUF +18.5 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| IND @ JAX | 8 | 7-42 | JAX +30.3 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| LAC @ LAR | 8 | 9-24 | LAR +18.3 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| JAX @ BAL | 9 | 33-10 | JAX +19.0 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| NYJ @ KC | 9 | 12-35 | KC +22.4 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| HOU @ LAC | 9 | 44-22 | HOU +20.7 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
| BUF @ MIN | 9 | 23-6 | BUF +20.0 | 100% | 0% | Earned |
↳Bottom lineNew York Jets have been robbed 2 times, the most in the league.
| Team | Record | Deserved W | Robbed | Lucky | Net EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | 2-7 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 | −0.024 |
| CIN | 6-2 | 6.0 | 1 | 0 | +0.126 |
| KC | 6-2 | 6.1 | 1 | 0 | +0.163 |
| DAL | 4-5 | 4.3 | 1 | 0 | +0.009 |
| CAR | 3-5 | 3.7 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| LAR | 5-4 | 6.6 | 1 | 0 | +0.191 |
| BUF | 7-1 | 5.6 | 0 | 0 | +0.135 |
| DET | 6-2 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | +0.032 |
| MIN | 6-2 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | +0.008 |
| CLE | 5-4 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | −0.034 |
| PHI | 2-7 | 1.4 | 0 | 0 | −0.214 |
| NE | 5-4 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | −0.007 |
| ARI | 3-6 | 2.6 | 0 | 0 | −0.127 |
| NYG | 5-2-1 | 5.1 | 0 | 0 | +0.007 |
| NO | 3-5 | 2.7 | 0 | 0 | −0.097 |
| CHI | 7-2 | 6.8 | 0 | 0 | +0.102 |
| ATL | 3-6 | 2.9 | 0 | 0 | −0.097 |
| WSH | 2-5-1 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | −0.075 |
| SF | 7-1 | 7.1 | 0 | 0 | +0.246 |
| JAX | 6-2 | 6.3 | 0 | 0 | +0.278 |
| SEA | 5-4 | 5.5 | 0 | 0 | +0.071 |
| MIA | 1-7 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | −0.176 |
| IND | 2-7 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 | −0.173 |
| TEN | 1-7 | 1.8 | 0 | 0 | −0.163 |
| LAC | 0-8 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | −0.224 |
| HOU | 3-5 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 | +0.042 |
| TB | 3-6 | 4.7 | 0 | 0 | +0.046 |
| PIT | 6-2 | 5.0 | 0 | 1 | +0.050 |
| GB | 6-3 | 5.5 | 0 | 1 | +0.096 |
| LV | 4-5 | 3.6 | 0 | 1 | −0.106 |
| BAL | 4-5 | 4.2 | 0 | 1 | −0.014 |
| DEN | 7-2 | 4.1 | 0 | 3 | −0.021 |
Deserved margin. For every game we add up the expected points added (EPA, nflverse model) by each offense on its passes and runs, with kneel-downs and spikes left out. Fumbles are evened out: every fumble counts as the league-average fumble (-2.56 EPA, with offenses recovering 53% of their own), because who falls on the ball is mostly chance. Kicking and returns are left out. A regression of real margins on that net EPA across the season's 136 games gives the deserved margin: 0.82 + 0.772 × net EPA.
Deserved win probability. The deserved margin, divided by the model's typical miss (5.5 points), through a normal curve. A game is robbed when the loser's deserved win probability is 70% or more, a coin flip when the winner's is under 60%. The fit is redone as games are added, so early-season numbers can move by a point or two.
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