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The Verdict2026 · NFC South · through Week 9

Buccaneers logoTampa Bay BuccaneersThe Verdict

Buccaneers are 3-6; the play says 4.7 wins. That record is 1.7 wins behind how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes in their favor. They are 1-6 in one-score games. On fourth down, Todd Bowles kicked away 7 of 10 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 31st of 32−1.73-6 real · 4.7 deserved · 5.2 Pythagorean
Luck points · 12th of 32+1.4fumble bounces +7.1 · opponents' kicks −5.7
Chicken Index · 6th of 3270%Todd Bowles · 4.3 expected points lost on 50 graded calls
Flags net · 12th of 32+1.8 WP63 flags for 449 yards against · 60 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play; 2 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Buccaneers logoBuccaneers40% success · −0.27 EPA/play
2427
Bears logoBears43% success · −0.19 EPA/play

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 5.7, a deserved win probability of 85%.

Deserved marginCHI by 5.7
Real marginCHI by 3
Luck pts TB+1.6
Luck pts CHI−2.4

The swingQ3 3:50 · TB · −28 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson at CHI 33. 1-J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Falcons logoFalcons29% success · −0.57 EPA/play
016
Buccaneers logoBuccaneers42% success · −0.20 EPA/play

Buccaneers earned it: the snaps said Buccaneers by 14.6, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginTB by 14.6
Real marginTB by 16
Luck pts ATL−4.8
Luck pts TB+5.8

The swingQ1 7:35 · ATL · −14 pts of win probability. 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards (5-D.London). PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at ATL 33.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-6Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+7.1 ptsKept 6 of 10 own fumbles; won 3 of 4 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−5.7 ptsOpponents made 18 of 20 field goals against an expected 16.1, and 16 of 17 extra points.
Own kicking+8.5 ptsMade 22 of 22 field goals against 19.2 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.04611th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-5Our pregame model in Buccaneers games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Todd Bowles · 50 graded fourth downs · went for it 12×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.7 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 34, Wk 9 Q3 2:02, down 11. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
  2. 2TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 33, Wk 3 Q1 1:16, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP
  3. 3TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 33, Wk 4 Q1 13:16, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP
  4. 4TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Field goal at opp 13, Wk 2 Q4 10:01, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.47 EP
  5. 5TB · 4th & 4Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 46, Wk 3 Q2 12:19, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP
  6. 6TB · 4th & 4Todd Bowles chose Punt at own 46, Wk 9 Q1 7:34, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP
  7. 7TB · 4th & 5Todd Bowles chose Punt at midfield, Wk 7 Q1 0:59, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.33 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1TB · 4th & 1Todd Bowles chose Go for it at own 35, Wk 9 Q2 7:11, down 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2TB · 4th & 1Todd Bowles chose Go for it at opp 19, Wk 4 Q2 6:45, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3TB · 4th & 2Todd Bowles chose Go for it at opp 12, Wk 9 Q1 1:02, down 14. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 4 · own 46 · Q1 7:349PuntGo for it-0.05-0.43–−0.39punted
4th & 2 · opp 12 · Q1 1:029Go for itGo for it3.39–2.86✓converted
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q2 13:529Field goalField goal1.44–2.90✓good
4th & 1 · own 35 · Q2 7:119Go for itGo for it0.47-0.83–✓stopped
4th & 10 · own 30 · Q2 5:309PuntPunt-1.82-1.06–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 19 · Q3 8:529PuntPunt-2.48-1.67–✓punted
4th & 22 · own 39 · Q3 5:279PuntPunt-1.74-0.67–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 34 · Q3 2:029PuntGo for it-0.17-0.87–−0.71punted
4th & 9 · opp 17 · Q4 11:289Field goalField goal1.67–2.75✓good
4th & 11 · own 31 · Q4 4:419Puntnot graded-1.83-1.01–punted
4th & 5 · opp 28 · Q1 7:478Field goalField goal1.41–2.19✓good
4th & 7 · opp 16 · Q1 4:068Field goalField goal1.94–2.78✓good
4th & 8 · own 27 · Q2 15:008PuntPunt-1.84-1.21–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 23 · Q2 4:088Field goalField goal1.75–2.52✓good
4th & 5 · opp 46 · Q2 0:418Puntnot graded0.25-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 5 · own 34 · Q3 13:318PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.99-0.87–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 46 · Q3 9:168PuntPunt-0.73-0.43–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 44 · Q4 7:258Puntnot graded-0.85-0.49–punted
4th & 11 · 50 · Q4 4:448Puntnot graded-0.62-0.32–punted
4th & 5 · 50 · Q1 0:597PuntGo for it0.01-0.32–−0.33punted
4th & 4 · opp 4 · Q2 14:157Field goalField goal2.44–2.94✓good
4th & 8 · opp 43 · Q3 10:427Puntnot graded0.05-0.190.20punted
4th & 4 · opp 26 · Q3 6:357Field goalnot graded1.74–2.34good
4th & 1 · own 45 · Q4 3:087Go for itnot graded1.09-0.46–stopped
4th & 24 · own 16 · Q1 12:576PuntPunt-3.35-1.87–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 17 · Q1 11:026PuntPunt-2.11-1.80–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 25 · Q1 7:556Field goalField goal1.21–2.40✓good
4th & 3 · own 27 · Q2 11:366PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.97-1.21–−0.24punted
4th & 11 · opp 29 · Q2 4:126Field goalField goal0.71–2.11✓good
4th & 9 · own 26 · Q2 1:406Puntnot graded-2.00-1.27–punted
4th & 12 · opp 15 · Q3 5:056Field goalField goal1.75–2.80✓good
4th & 5 · own 30 · Q3 2:236Puntnot graded-1.25-1.06–punted
4th & 11 · own 25 · Q4 7:106PuntPunt-2.23-1.32–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 35 · Q4 0:136Field goalnot graded1.77-0.111.46good
4th & 9 · own 27 · OT 2:186Go for itnot graded-1.94-1.21–converted
4th & 8 · opp 48 · OT 1:066Go for itnot graded-0.26-0.28–stopped
4th & 5 · own 8 · Q2 11:095PuntPunt-2.74-2.44–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 48 · Q2 3:475PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.43-0.28–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 49 · Q2 2:005PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.54-0.35–✓punted
4th & 17 · opp 23 · Q3 3:025Field goalnot graded1.02–2.52good
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q4 8:365Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95stopped
4th & 8 · own 37 · Q4 3:535Puntnot graded-1.20-0.75–punted
4th & 2 · own 33 · Q1 13:164PuntGo for it-0.23-0.92–−0.69punted
4th & 7 · own 38 · Q2 11:474PuntPunt-1.03-0.71–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 19 · Q2 6:454Go for itGo for it3.47–2.69✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 45 · Q2 1:094Go for itnot graded1.71-0.22-0.16converted
4th & 16 · own 29 · Q3 8:284PuntPunt-2.22-1.11–✓punted
4th & 24 · own 1 · Q4 5:094PuntPunt-4.51-3.03–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 47 · Q4 1:344Go for itnot graded-0.44-0.26-0.53stopped
4th & 5 · own 45 · Q1 9:003PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.30-0.46–−0.16punted
4th & 2 · own 33 · Q1 1:163PuntGo for it-0.23-0.92–−0.69punted
4th & 4 · own 46 · Q2 12:193PuntGo for it-0.05-0.43–−0.39punted
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q2 5:353Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 10 · own 26 · Q2 1:463Puntnot graded-2.09-1.27–punted
4th & 7 · own 40 · Q2 0:063Puntnot graded-0.90-0.63–punted
4th & 9 · own 42 · Q3 12:293PuntPunt-0.98-0.56–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 19 · Q3 9:383PuntPunt-1.97-1.67–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 20 · Q3 7:163Field goalField goal1.55–2.65✓good
4th & 30 · own 14 · Q3 3:093PuntPunt-3.61-2.00–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 22 · Q4 14:233PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.56-1.49–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 36 · Q4 9:063Field goalField goal0.60-0.121.32✓good
4th & 13 · own 39 · Q4 1:543Go for itnot graded-1.43-0.67–stopped
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q4 0:083Go for itnot graded0.78-0.63–stopped
4th & 4 · opp 41 · Q1 11:162Field goalGo for it (toss-up)0.77-0.160.55−0.22good
4th & 4 · opp 27 · Q1 4:062Field goalField goal1.68–2.27✓good
4th & 7 · own 45 · Q2 9:492PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.59-0.46–✓punted
4th & 21 · own 33 · Q2 4:482PuntPunt-2.11-0.92–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 13 · Q2 0:152Field goalnot graded1.83–2.84good
4th & 15 · own 37 · Q3 2:362PuntPunt-1.65-0.75–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 31 · Q4 14:552PuntPunt-1.58-1.01–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 13 · Q4 10:012Field goalGo for it3.31–2.84−0.47good
4th & 11 · opp 20 · Q4 0:222Go for itnot graded1.31–2.65stopped
4th & 5 · opp 16 · Q1 9:121Field goalField goal2.24–2.78✓good
4th & 15 · opp 33 · Q3 3:461Field goalnot graded0.24-0.111.70good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on TB in Week 6, worth +15 points of win probability to PIT.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceTB → helped PIT · Wk 6 Q4 3:38 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Metcalf. PENALTY on TB-25-J.Parrish, Defensive Pass Interference, 12…+15.4 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingTB → helped CLE · Wk 2 Q4 0:45 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+10.7 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingTB → helped MIN · Wk 3 Q4 12:02 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles up the middle to MIN 30 for 14 yards (51-B.Cashman). PENALTY on TB-87-P.Durham, Offensive…+7.2 WP
  4. 4Offensive Too Many Men on FieldTB → helped GB · Wk 4 Q3 1:47 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on TB, Offensive Too Many Men on Field, 5 yards, enforced at GB 24 - No Play.+6.1 WP
  5. 5Face MaskTB → helped CLE · Wk 2 Q3 1:37 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 38-J.McLaughlin. PENALTY on TB-0-Y.Diaby, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at…+5.4 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1716354.0
Defensive Pass Interference31722.9
False Start189019.8
Unnecessary Roughness3318.4
Offensive Too Many Men on Field156.1
Face Mask1155.4
Roughing the Passer2303.9
Defensive Holding2103.7

Flags drawn

  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessMIN → helped TB · Wk 3 Q4 10:49 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 2-E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (44-J.Metellus; 7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on…+15.3 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessATL → helped TB · Wk 8 Q1 7:35 · 9-M.Penix pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 34-A.Anzalone at ATL 41. 34-A.Anzalone to ATL 33 for 8 yards…+14.1 WP
  3. 3Unsportsmanlike ConductCAR → helped TB · Wk 7 Q2 9:09 · 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (23-T.Smith), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT.…+8.0 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingDAL → helped TB · Wk 5 Q2 11:09 · 9-R.Dixon punts 41 yards to TB 49, Center-86-E.Deckers, downed by TB-19-K.Johnson. PENALTY on DAL-50-S.James, Offensive Holding,…+7.2 WP
  5. 5Defensive HoldingCLE → helped TB · Wk 2 Q1 1:48 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end to TB 31 for 14 yards (26-M.Harden). PENALTY on CLE-21-D.Ward, Defensive Holding, 5…+6.5 WP

Garbage Time Tax

19.1% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 17th most of 32

Bottom lineKenny Gainwell: 148 of 305 yards (49%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Baker MayfieldTB · passing · 922 yds19%
Bucky IrvingTB · rushing · 825 yds11%
Kenny GainwellTB · rushing · 305 yds49%
Emeka EgbukaTB · receiving · 278 yds9%
Chris Godwin Jr.TB · receiving · 259 yds19%
Tez JohnsonTB · receiving · 254 yds6%

Our picks on the Buccaneers

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Buccaneers 39% at bears. 24-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Buccaneers 59% at home against falcons. 0-16 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Buccaneers 29% at panthers. 43-13 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Buccaneers 52% at home against steelers. 26-19 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Buccaneers 36% at cowboys. 24-16 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Buccaneers 62% at home against packers. 17-14 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Buccaneers 35% at home against vikings. 23-16 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Buccaneers 67% at home against browns. 23-19 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Tampa Bay Buccaneers verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/buccaneers/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.