Dolphins 28, Jets 25: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · MetLife StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
MIA	14	7	0	7	28
NYJ	7	0	7	11	25

Home · 2-7New YorkJets25

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 3:31 AM ET

The Miami Dolphins beat the New York Jets 28-25 on Sun, Oct 25 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Dolphins 1-7, Jets 2-7. M.Willis (MIA) led all players with +18.3 EPA on 28 dropbacks.

Who won Dolphins vs Jets?

The Miami Dolphins won 28-25. By quarter: MIA 14-7-0-7, NYJ 7-0-7-11.

Who was the best player in Dolphins vs Jets?

By expected points added: M.Willis (MIA, +18.3 EPA on 28 dropbacks), G.Smith (NYJ, +12.6 EPA on 34 dropbacks) and O.Cooper (NYJ, +9.2 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Dolphins vs Jets?

The biggest swing in win probability (20 points toward the Dolphins) came in Q4 at 4:44: M.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Dolphins 28, Jets 25: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-mia-at-nyj (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

Dolphins50% success · +0.28 EPA/play

2825

Jets53% success · +0.27 EPA/play

MIA 62% deserveddeserved 38% NYJ

Dolphins earned it: the snaps said Dolphins by 1.6, a deserved win probability of 62%.

Deserved marginMIA by 1.6

Real marginMIA by 3

Luck pts MIA+2.5

Luck pts NYJ−0.2

The swingQ4 4:55 · MIA · +18 pts of win probability. 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs.

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the PasserNYJ → helped MIA · Wk 7 Q4 4:55 · 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards,…+17.6 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessMIA → helped NYJ · Wk 7 Q4 11:25 · 0-B.Allen up the middle to MIA 1 for 10 yards (42-J.Woodard; 23-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Unnecessary Roughness,…+6.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIA · 4th & 2Jeff Hafley chose Punt at own 23, Wk 7 Q2 11:17, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.57 EP
2NYJ · 4th & 4Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 43, Wk 7 Q2 8:51, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA130 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Allen11 accepted flags in this game · 15 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: NYJ by 3.5 · Snaps: MIA by 1.6Dolphins covered; the snaps agree

28@25

Week 7

If the Jets had stopped that fourth-and-1

Jets after the play5%what really happened

Q4 2:00 2-M.Willis up the middle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (91-J.Briggs).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NYJ ▲MIA ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+20%Q4 4:44 · for MIAM.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
+20%Q4 2:00 · for MIAM.Willis up the middle to NYJ 47 for 2 yards (J.Briggs).
+13%Q4 9:43 · for MIAG.Smith sacked at MIA 15 for -12 yards (C.Robinson).
+13%Q3 7:34 · for NYJ(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep middle to O.Cooper to MIA 10 for 60 yards (C.Johnson).Penalty on MIA-J.Brents, Defensive Holding, declined.
+12%Q2 12:06 · for MIAG.Smith pass short middle intended for M.Taylor INTERCEPTED by M.Taaffe at MIA 15. M.Taaffe to MIA 15 for no gain (J.Ruckert).

Every drive, on the field

NYJ attacks →← MIA attacks

Q1 15:00TD7p · 76y · 4:07
Q1 10:53TD4p · 65y · 2:16
Q1 8:37TD14p · 60y · 7:35
Q1 1:02INT9p · 47y · 4:03
Q2 11:59PUNT3p · 8y · 0:49
Q2 11:10PUNT4p · 13y · 2:26
Q2 8:44TD15p · 91y · 8:38
Q2 0:06HALF1p · -1y · 0:06
Q3 15:00MISS9p · 43y · 4:58
Q3 10:02PUNT3p · 5y · 1:46
Q3 8:16TD6p · 73y · 2:26
Q3 5:50PUNT9p · 28y · 5:43
Q3 0:07FG12p · 68y · 6:10
Q4 8:57PUNT3p · 2y · 1:09
Q4 7:48PUNT3p · 0y · 1:39
Q4 6:09TD3p · 76y · 1:25
Q4 4:44TD7p · 65y · 1:20
Q4 3:24END7p · 23y · 3:24

Dolphins8 drives4scoring drives (4 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 23avg starting field position3three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Jets8 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:53Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short right to C.Douglas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on NYJ-J.Sherwood, Defensive Holding, declined. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.7–0
Q1
8:37Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to M.Taylor for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.7–7
Q1
1:02TouchdownOllie Gordon II 1 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)14–7
Q2
0:06Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Willis scrambles left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.21–7
Q3
5:50Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to O.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.21–14
Q4
8:57Field goalJ.Sanders 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.21–17
Q4
4:44TouchdownM.Willis pass short left to C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN.PENALTY on NYJ-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards, enforced between downs. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.28–17
Q4
3:24Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short left to M.Taylor for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. G.Smith pass to M.Taylor is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.28–25

Team stats

MIAvsNYJ

360Total yards377

204Passing yards269

156Rushing yards108

5.6Yards per play7.1

24First downs19

5-12 · 42%Third down7-13 · 54%

3-3Fourth down2-2

3-3Red zone TDs3-4

14/21Comp / att23/30

3.8Yards per carry5.1

0Turnovers1

2 (−4 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−18 yds)

5 for 26Penalties6 for 36

34:36Possession25:24

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.283+0.272

Dropback EPA+0.654+0.370

Rush EPA-0.022+0.096

Success rate50%53%

Explosive plays68

Plays6253

Who moved the needle

M.WillisDropbacks: 28+18.3

G.SmithDropbacks: 34+12.6

O.CooperTargets: 5+9.2

G.DulcichTargets: 5+8.8

C.DouglasTargets: 3+7.4

M.TaylorTargets: 7+6.2

Cost their side the most

J.WrightCarries: 6-2.8

A.MitchellTargets: 3-2.3

O.GordonTargets: 3-1.9

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Malik WillisQB	14/21	208	9.9	2	0	2-4	99.4	130.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Ollie Gordon IIRB	25	103	4.1	1	25
Malik WillisQB	8	37	4.6	1	12
Malik WashingtonWR	2	8	4.0	0	8
Jaylen WrightRB	6	8	1.3	0	6

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Greg DulcichTE	5	5	86	17.2	0	32
Caleb DouglasWR	2	3	70	35.0	2	63
Malik WashingtonWR	3	3	27	9.0	0	12
Chris BellWR	3	4	25	8.3	0	9
Jaylen WrightRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Kevin Coleman Jr.WR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ollie Gordon IIRB	1	3	0	0.0	0	0
Seydou TraoreTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jordyn BrooksLB	9	5	2	0	0
Dante Trader Jr.S	7	4	0	0	0
Chris JohnsonCB	5	4	0	0	1
Zach SielerDT	5	3	1	0	1
Josh UcheLB	5	2	1	0	0
Zayne AndersonS	4	2	0	0	0
Jacob RodriguezLB	4	1	0	0	0
Jackson WoodardLB	4	1	0	0	0
Jason Marshall Jr.CB	3	1	0	0	0
Michael TaaffeS	3	1	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Zane GonzalezPK	0/0	0.0	0	4/4	4

New York Jets

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Geno SmithQB	23/30	287	9.6	3	1	2-18	75.5	125.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Braelon AllenRB	17	104	6.1	27
Isaiah DavisRB	1	5	5.0	5
Geno SmithQB	2	0	0.0	1
Andrew BeckFB	1	-1	-1.0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Omar Cooper Jr.WR	5	5	115	23.0	1	60
Mason TaylorTE	5	6	62	12.4	2	20
Isaiah DavisRB	3	3	49	16.3	0	41
Braelon AllenRB	6	7	30	5.0	0	7
Garrett WilsonWR	2	3	26	13.0	0	19
Kenyon SadiqTE	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Adonai MitchellWR	0	3	0	0.0	0	0
Jelani WoodsTE	1	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Minkah FitzpatrickS	10	6	0	0	0	0
Dane BeltonS	9	6	0	0	0	0
Jamien SherwoodLB	8	4	0	2	2	0
Harrison PhillipsDT	7	2	0	0	0	0
Azareye'h ThomasCB	6	2	0	0	0	0
Kingsley EnagbareLB	6	0	0.5	0	0	1
David BaileyLB	4	3	0.5	1	0	1
Darrell Jackson Jr.DT	4	2	0	0	0	0
Jowon BriggsDT	4	1	0	0	0	0
Nate LynnDE	3	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason SandersPK	1/2	50.0	33	2/2	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jets pass rush vs Dolphins pass protection
The Jets' pass rush ranks 6th in sack rate (7.7% of dropbacks, 222 dropbacks faced) and faces a Dolphins pass protection ranked 27th (8.7% sacked, 161 dropbacks).
27thMIA offense21 spots apart6thNYJ defense
2Jets ball security vs Dolphins takeaway defense
The Jets' ball security ranks 6th in turnovers per game (0.7 giveaways a game, 6 games) against a Dolphins takeaway defense ranked 29th (0.8 takeaways a game, 5 games).
6thNYJ offense23 spots apart29thMIA defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Jets run defense vs Dolphins run game
The Jets' run defense ranks 4th in EPA per rush (-0.17 allowed, 157 rushes faced) and faces a Dolphins run game ranked 19th (-0.11, 113 rushes).
19thMIA offense15 spots apart4thNYJ defense

When the Dolphins have the ballEdge NYJ · +15 ranks

MIA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNYJ pass defense

26th-0.12161 dropbacks

+0.04 allowed222 dropbacks faced19th

MIA run gameEPA per rushNYJ run defense

19th-0.11113 rushes

NYJ +15

-0.17 allowed157 rushes faced4th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Jets have the ballEdge NYJ · +13 ranks

NYJ dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIA pass defense

18th+0.06206 dropbacks

NYJ +13

+0.30 allowed157 dropbacks faced31st

NYJ run gameEPA per rushMIA run defense

22nd-0.15143 rushes

MIA +13

-0.12 allowed133 rushes faced9th

Third downNo big edge

MIA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNYJ third-down defense

11th42.9%63 third downs

38.2% allowed76 third downs faced11th

NYJ third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIA third-down defense

24th36.8%76 third downs

55.4% allowed56 third downs faced31st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NYJ · +12 ranks

MIA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNYJ red-zone defense

22nd50%12 trips

NYJ +12

52% allowed21 trips faced10th

NYJ red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIA red-zone defense

32nd36%14 trips

MIA +12

64% allowed22 trips faced20th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge MIA · +10 ranks

MIA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNYJ defense against big plays

5th11.7%274 plays

MIA +10

8.7% allowed379 plays faced15th

NYJ big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIA defense against big plays

15th9.2%349 plays

9.7% allowed290 plays faced20th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge NYJ · +21 ranks

MIA pass protectionsack rateNYJ pass rush

27th8.7% sacked161 dropbacks

NYJ +21

7.7% of dropbacks222 dropbacks faced6th

NYJ pass protectionsack rateMIA pass rush

30th9.2% sacked206 dropbacks

2.5% of dropbacks157 dropbacks faced32nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge NYJ · +23 ranks

MIA ball securityturnovers per gameNYJ takeaway defense

23rd1.6 giveaways a game5 games

NYJ +9

1.2 takeaways a game6 games14th

NYJ ball securityturnovers per gameMIA takeaway defense

6th0.7 giveaways a game6 games

NYJ +23

0.8 takeaways a game5 games29th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: MIA 5 games, 274 offensive and 290 defensive plays · NYJ 6 games, 349 offensive and 379 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Kyle McCordQB→ Malik Willis

Kenneth GrantLDT→ Zach Sieler

Willie Gay Jr.SLB→ Jordan Phillips

Breece HallRB→ Braelon Allen

Dylan ParhamLG→ Jordan Meredith

Trevin WallaceSLB→ Harrison Phillips

Jarvis Brownlee Jr.NB→ D'Angelo Ponds

AwayDolphins3 changes