Patriots 24, Dolphins 19: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Hard Rock StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NE	3	0	14	7	24
MIA	3	10	0	6	19

Home · 1-7MiamiDolphins19

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:09 PM ET

The New England Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins 24-19 on Sun, Nov 1 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Patriots 5-4, Dolphins 1-7. D.Douglas (NE) led all players with +8.0 EPA on 3 targets.

Who won Patriots vs Dolphins?

The New England Patriots won 24-19. By quarter: NE 3-0-14-7, MIA 3-10-0-6.

Who was the best player in Patriots vs Dolphins?

By expected points added: D.Douglas (NE, +8.0 EPA on 3 targets), K.Coleman (MIA, +6.0 EPA on 3 targets) and M.Washington (MIA, +5.8 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Patriots vs Dolphins?

The biggest swing in win probability (15 points toward the Patriots) came in Q3 at 9:23: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Patriots 24, Dolphins 19: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-ne-at-mia (updated 2026-11-11).

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The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Patriots50% success · +0.04 EPA/play

2419

Dolphins41% success · −0.06 EPA/play

NE 77% deserveddeserved 23% MIA

Patriots earned it: the snaps said Patriots by 4.0, a deserved win probability of 77%.

Deserved marginNE by 4.0

Real marginNE by 5

Luck pts NE+3.3

Luck pts MIA+0.7

The swingQ1 5:59 · NE · −17 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to NE 18 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 19-K.Louis). FUMBLES (10-J.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIA-8-J.Brents at NE 19.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessNE → helped MIA · Wk 8 Q2 0:40 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to NE 35 for 8 yards (7-C.Davis). MIA-6-M.Washington was injured during…+6.0 WP
2Unsportsmanlike ConductMIA → helped NE · Wk 8 Q3 9:10 · 0-O.Gordon left end to MIA 40 for 5 yards (14-R.Spillane). PENALTY on MIA-0-O.Gordon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards,…+5.7 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA137 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Moore13 accepted flags in this game · 16.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: NE by 7 · Snaps: NE by 4.0Dolphins covered; the snaps agree

24@19

Week 8Changes the winner

If the Dolphins had stopped that fourth-and-3

Dolphins after the play47%what really happened

Q2 5:04 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 86-E.Chism to MIA 29 for 12 yards (11-D.Trader).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

MIA ▲NE ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+15%Q3 9:23 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
+12%Q2 0:08 · for MIA(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to M.Washington for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: MIA-M.Washington has returned to the game. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.
+9%Q4 12:39 · for NED.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
+9%Q2 5:04 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to E.Chism to MIA 29 for 12 yards (D.Trader).
+7%Q3 5:33 · for MIAC.Kiner left end to MIA 23 for -1 yards (M.Taaffe, J.Brooks).

Every drive, on the field

MIA attacks →← NE attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 4y · 2:19
Q1 12:41FG8p · 35y · 3:31
Q1 9:10PUNT3p · -2y · 2:13
Q1 6:57FUM2p · 3y · 1:09
Q1 5:48FG4p · 6y · 2:09
Q1 3:39PUNT4p · 12y · 2:19
Q1 1:20FG12p · 55y · 6:53
Q2 9:27MISS12p · 43y · 7:08
Q2 2:19TD11p · 70y · 2:11
Q2 0:08HALF1p · -2y · 0:08
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · -1y · 2:01
Q3 12:59PUNT3p · 1y · 1:07
Q3 11:52TD5p · 62y · 2:29
Q3 9:23PUNT3p · -10y · 0:48
Q3 8:35TD13p · 73y · 7:36
Q3 0:59INT5p · 11y · 2:28
Q4 13:31TD2p · 53y · 0:52
Q4 12:39MISS11p · 45y · 5:58
Q4 6:41PUNT5p · 17y · 2:40
Q4 4:01TD8p · 84y · 1:57
Q4 2:04END6p · 7y · 2:04

Patriots9 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)44%drives ending in pointsOWN 35avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Dolphins10 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position4three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:10Field goalA.Borregales 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.3–0
Q1
3:39Field goalZ.Gonzalez 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.3–3
Q2
9:27Field goalZ.Gonzalez 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.3–6
Q2
0:08Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Willis pass short left to M.Washington for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: MIA-M.Washington has returned to the game. Z.Gonzalez extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Addington, Holder-B.Pinion.3–13
Q3
9:23Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe).New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to K.Williams for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.10–13
Q3
0:59Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Lomu reported in as eligible. D.Maye right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.17–13
Q4
12:39TouchdownD.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.24–13
Q4
2:04Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Willis pass deep left to K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Willis pass to W.Kacmarek is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.24–19

Team stats

NEvsMIA

313Total yards269

182Passing yards195

131Rushing yards74

5.3Yards per play4.5

16First downs17

6-14 · 43%Third down7-14 · 50%

2-2Fourth down0-0

1-2Red zone TDs1-2

16/20Comp / att21/32

3.6Yards per carry3.2

1Turnovers1

3 (−17 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−16 yds)

7 for 46Penalties6 for 50

31:57Possession28:03

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.117-0.064

Dropback EPA+0.208+0.080

Rush EPA+0.039-0.304

Success rate50%41%

Explosive plays64

Plays5661

Who moved the needle

D.DouglasTargets: 3+8.0

K.ColemanTargets: 3+6.0

M.WashingtonTargets: 6+5.8

D.MayeDropbacks: 26+5.4

M.WillisDropbacks: 38+3.1

H.HenryTargets: 3+1.3

Cost their side the most

O.GordonCarries: 19-5.5

E.RaridonTargets: 4-2.8

C.KinerCarries: 7-0.9

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	16/20	199	10.0	2	0	3-17	70.7	141.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rhamondre StevensonRB	19	82	4.3	0	9
Corey KinerRB	7	38	5.4	0	20
Lan LarisonRB	2	6	3.0	0	4
Drake MayeQB	8	5	0.6	1	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DeMario DouglasWR	3	3	76	25.3	1	48
Kyle WilliamsWR	1	1	43	43.0	1	43
Efton Chism IIIWR	5	5	37	7.4	0	12
Hunter HenryTE	3	3	30	10.0	0	20
Rhamondre StevensonRB	3	3	8	2.7	0	4
Eli RaridonTE	1	4	5	5.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Carlton Davis IIICB	9	7	0	0	0	0
Christian EllissLB	9	3	0.5	2	0	1
Kevin ByardS	7	4	0	0	1	0
Dre'Mont JonesDE	6	4	0	0	0	0
Marcus JonesCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Craig WoodsonS	5	2	0	1	0	0
Cory DurdenDT	4	2	1.5	2	0	3
Robert SpillaneLB	4	1	0	0	2	0
Milton WilliamsDT	4	1	0	0	0	0
Christian GonzalezCB	3	3	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	1/2	50.0	34	3/3	6

Miami Dolphins

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Malik WillisQB	21/32	211	6.6	2	1	5-16	65.7	92.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Ollie Gordon IIRB	19	69	3.6	16
Jaylen WrightRB	2	5	2.5	3
Malik WillisQB	1	2	2.0	2
Chris BellWR	1	-2	-2.0	-2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kevin Coleman Jr.WR	3	3	46	15.3	1	35
Greg DulcichTE	4	6	43	10.8	0	19
Caleb DouglasWR	4	6	43	10.8	0	18
Malik WashingtonWR	5	6	40	8.0	1	23
Chris BellWR	4	6	31	7.8	0	9
Jalen TolbertWR	1	1	8	8.0	0	8
Jaylen WrightRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ollie Gordon IIRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Will KacmarekTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Jordyn BrooksLB	11	6	0	0	0
Jacob RodriguezLB	8	2	0	0	0
Zach SielerDT	6	3	0	0	0
Michael TaaffeS	6	3	0	1	0
Jordan PhillipsDT	5	3	0	0	0
Josh UcheLB	4	4	1	1	1
Dante Trader Jr.S	4	3	0	0	0
Chris JohnsonCB	4	2	0	0	0
Chop RobinsonLB	3	3	2	2	2
JuJu BrentsCB	3	3	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Zane GonzalezPK	2/3	66.7	52	1/1	7

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Patriots dropback offense vs Dolphins pass defense
The Patriots' dropback offense ranks 5th in EPA per dropback (+0.21, 257 dropbacks) against a Dolphins pass defense ranked 32nd (+0.32 allowed, 191 dropbacks faced).
5thNE offense27 spots apart32ndMIA defense
2Patriots third-down offense vs Dolphins third-down defense
The Patriots' third-down offense ranks 10th in third-down conversion rate (42.9%, 84 third downs) against a Dolphins third-down defense ranked 32nd (55.1% allowed, 69 third downs faced).
10thNE offense22 spots apart32ndMIA defense
3Patriots pass protection vs Dolphins pass rush
The Patriots' pass protection ranks 14th in sack rate (5.1% sacked, 257 dropbacks) against a Dolphins pass rush ranked 31st (3.1% of dropbacks, 191 dropbacks faced).
14thNE offense17 spots apart31stMIA defense

When the Patriots have the ballEdge NE · +27 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIA pass defense

5th+0.21257 dropbacks

NE +27

+0.32 allowed191 dropbacks faced32nd

NE run gameEPA per rushMIA run defense

27th-0.17172 rushes

MIA +15

-0.10 allowed152 rushes faced12th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Dolphins have the ballNo big edge

MIA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

22nd-0.01189 dropbacks

+0.07 allowed252 dropbacks faced19th

MIA run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

19th-0.09147 rushes

-0.06 allowed157 rushes faced24th

Third downEdge NE · +22 ranks

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIA third-down defense

10th42.9%84 third downs

NE +22

55.1% allowed69 third downs faced32nd

MIA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

12th42.7%75 third downs

36.1% allowed83 third downs faced8th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIA red-zone defense

23rd50%22 trips

65% allowed26 trips faced21st

MIA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

15th60%15 trips

50% allowed22 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge MIA · +16 ranks

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIA defense against big plays

8th10.5%429 plays

NE +15

10.5% allowed343 plays faced23rd

MIA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

3rd11.3%336 plays

MIA +16

9.5% allowed409 plays faced19th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge NE · +17 ranks

NE pass protectionsack rateMIA pass rush

14th5.1% sacked257 dropbacks

NE +17

3.1% of dropbacks191 dropbacks faced31st

MIA pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

27th8.5% sacked189 dropbacks

NE +15

6.7% of dropbacks252 dropbacks faced12th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

NE ball securityturnovers per gameMIA takeaway defense

31st2.0 giveaways a game7 games

0.8 takeaways a game6 games29th

MIA ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

21st1.3 giveaways a game6 games

1.0 takeaways a game7 games16th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NE 7 games, 429 offensive and 409 defensive plays · MIA 6 games, 336 offensive and 343 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

TreVeyon HendersonRB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

A.J. BrownWR→ Efton Chism III

Mack HollinsWR→ Kyle Williams

Hunter HenryTE→ Eli Raridon

Walter RouseLG→ Ben Brown

Kyle McCordQB→ Malik Willis

Kadyn ProctorLG→ Jarrett Kingston

AwayPatriots3 next man up · 4 questionable · 5 changes