Colts 7, Jaguars 42: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · EverBank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
IND	0	0	7	0	7
JAX	7	21	14	0	42

Home · 6-2JacksonvilleJaguars42

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts 42-7 on Sun, Nov 1 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Colts 2-7, Jaguars 6-2. T.Lawrence (JAX) led all players with +7.0 EPA on 19 dropbacks.

Who won Colts vs Jaguars?

The Jacksonville Jaguars won 42-7. By quarter: IND 0-0-7-0, JAX 7-21-14-0.

Who was the best player in Colts vs Jaguars?

By expected points added: T.Lawrence (JAX, +7.0 EPA on 19 dropbacks), B.Tuten (JAX, +4.0 EPA on 16 carries) and J.Downs (IND, +3.3 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Colts vs Jaguars?

The biggest swing in win probability (7 points toward the Jaguars) came in Q2 at 9:11: (Shotgun) J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Colts 7, Jaguars 42: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-ind-at-jax (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Colts40% success · −0.43 EPA/play

742

Jaguars45% success · +0.25 EPA/play

IND 0% deserveddeserved 100% JAX

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 30.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 30.3

Real marginJAX by 35

Luck pts IND−0.3

Luck pts JAX−0.1

The swingQ2 9:11 · IND · −10 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-57-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

Flags that moved this game

1Face MaskJAX → helped IND · Wk 8 Q2 14:28 · 20-S.McGowan right tackle to IND 31 for 7 yards (41-J.Hines-Allen). PENALTY on JAX-99-R.Orhorhoro, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced…+3.6 WP
2Defensive HoldingIND → helped JAX · Wk 8 Q2 7:42 · (Shotgun) 33-B.Tuten right end pushed ob at IND 36 for 8 yards (58-A.Ajiake). PENALTY on IND-95-A.Adebawore, Defensive Holding,…+2.9 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA131 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAdrian Hill17 accepted flags in this game · 16.9 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: JAX by 10 · Snaps: JAX by 30.3Jaguars covered; the snaps agree

7@42

Week 8

If the Colts had fallen on their own fumble

Colts after the play17%what really happened

Q2 9:11 28-J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-57-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

JAX ▲IND ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+7%Q2 9:11 · for JAX(Shotgun) J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.
+7%Q1 5:30 · for JAX(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to Bri.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
+5%Q1 10:33 · for JAXW.Milum reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence pass deep right to B.Strange pushed ob at IND 32 for 46 yards (A.Haulcy).
+4%Q2 7:14 · for JAXT.Lawrence pass deep left to N.Boerkircher for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
+4%Q1 13:27 · for JAX(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Taylor to JAX 49 for -7 yards (F.Oluokun).

Every drive, on the field

JAX attacks →← IND attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT4p · 18y · 2:22
Q1 12:38TD12p · 98y · 7:08
Q1 5:30PUNT3p · 4y · 2:05
Q1 3:25PUNT5p · 18y · 2:14
Q1 1:11PUNT7p · 43y · 3:32
Q2 12:39PUNT3p · 5y · 1:56
Q2 10:43FUM4p · 8y · 1:38
Q2 9:05TD4p · 50y · 1:51
Q2 7:14PUNT4p · 11y · 2:30
Q2 4:44TD7p · 80y · 2:53
Q2 1:51PUNT3p · -2y · 0:48
Q2 1:03FUM1p · -10y · 0:08
Q2 0:55INT3p · 14y · 0:45
Q2 0:10HALF1p · -1y · 0:10
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · -11y · 2:22
Q3 12:38DOWNS4p · 3y · 2:08
Q3 10:30TD3p · 37y · 1:22
Q3 9:08TD10p · 65y · 5:09
Q3 3:59TD6p · 83y · 3:59
Q4 15:00INT5p · 31y · 1:39
Q4 13:21PUNT3p · -3y · 1:36
Q4 11:45DOWNS4p · 9y · 2:28
Q4 9:17PUNT3p · -1y · 1:51
Q4 7:26PUNT4p · 10y · 2:52
Q4 4:34PUNT3p · 5y · 2:18
Q4 2:16END4p · 22y · 2:16

Colts12 drives2scoring drives (2 TD)17%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position2three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Jaguars12 drives5scoring drives (5 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position5three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
5:30Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to Bri.Thomas for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.0–7
Q2
7:14TouchdownT.Lawrence pass deep left to N.Boerkircher for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.0–14
Q2
1:51TouchdownB.Tuten right tackle for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.0–21
Q2
0:10Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left intended for T.Warren INTERCEPTED by R.Lane [R.Orhorhoro] at JAX 8. R.Lane for 92 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.0–28
Q3
9:08Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Rodriguez up the middle for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.0–35
Q3
3:59Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short left to J.Downs for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.7–35
Q3
0:00Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short right to B.Tuten for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.7–42

Team stats

INDvsJAX

243Total yards366

134Passing yards183

109Rushing yards183

4.0Yards per play6.9

17First downs18

3-11 · 27%Third down6-12 · 50%

0-2Fourth down0-0

1-2Red zone TDs1-1

21/30Comp / att11/17

4.2Yards per carry5.5

3Turnovers1

4 (−18 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−35 yds)

9 for 54Penalties8 for 65

30:22Possession29:38

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.485+0.199

Dropback EPA-0.589+0.245

Rush EPA-0.302+0.166

Success rate40%45%

Explosive plays47

Plays5853

Who moved the needle

T.LawrenceDropbacks: 19+7.0

B.TutenCarries: 16+4.0

J.DownsTargets: 5+3.3

K.AllenTargets: 7+2.9

S.McGowanCarries: 5+2.2

C.RodriguezCarries: 6+2.0

Cost their side the most

T.WarrenTargets: 10-19.7

D.JonesDropbacks: 33-16.9

J.TaylorCarries: 8-6.8

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	19/28	144	5.1	1	2	3-8	35.6	62.2
Anthony Richardson Sr.QB	2/2	8	4.0	0	0	1-10	36.8	83.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
DJ GiddensRB	6	43	7.2	12
Seth McGowanRB	5	29	5.8	16
Jonathan TaylorRB	8	23	2.9	19
Daniel JonesQB	4	7	1.8	6
Anthony Richardson Sr.QB	2	4	2.0	5
Ashton DulinWR	1	3	3.0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Keenan AllenWR	7	7	67	9.6	0	18
Jonathan TaylorRB	4	5	24	6.0	0	15
Josh DownsWR	4	5	23	5.8	1	8
Laquon TreadwellWR	1	2	18	18.0	0	18
Tyler WarrenTE	4	10	18	4.5	0	10
Deion BurksWR	1	1	2	2.0	0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
CJ AllenLB	10	4	1	1	0	1
Caden CurryLB	7	5	0	0	0	0
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Austin AjiakeLB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Grover StewartDT	4	3	0	0	0	0
Charvarius WardCB	4	1	0	0	1	0
Sauce GardnerCB	3	3	0	0	2	0
A.J. HaulcyS	3	3	0	0	0	0
Jaylahn TuimoloauDE	3	1	1	1	0	1
Ashton DulinWR	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Trevor LawrenceQB	10/14	210	15.0	3	0	3-35	76.7	153.3
Quinn EwersQB	1/3	8	2.7	0	0	0-0	3.2	42.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bhayshul TutenRB	16	104	6.5	1	39
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	6	41	6.8	1	28
Ameer AbdullahRB	6	13	2.2	0	9
Parker WashingtonWR	1	10	10.0	0	10
Trevor LawrenceQB	3	10	3.3	0	5
Travis HunterWR	1	5	5.0	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bhayshul TutenRB	2	2	55	27.5	1	30
Brenton StrangeTE	2	2	55	27.5	0	46
Nate BoerkircherTE	1	1	31	31.0	1	31
Jakobi MeyersWR	2	3	24	12.0	0	14
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	1	1	17	17.0	0	17
Parker WashingtonWR	1	2	16	16.0	0	16
Brian Thomas Jr.WR	1	2	12	12.0	1	12
Tanner KoziolTE	1	1	8	8.0	0	8
Travis HunterWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Josh CameronWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Foyesade OluokunLB	9	5	1	2	0	1
Josh Hines-AllenDE	5	4	0.5	1	0	1
Montaric BrownCB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	4	3	0	0	0	0
Matt DickersonDE	4	2	0	0	0	0
Rayuan Lane IIIS	4	1	0	0	3	1
Travon WalkerDE	3	2	1	1	0	1
Jalen HuskeyS	3	1	1	1	0	1
Arik ArmsteadDT	3	1	0.5	0	0	2
Dennis GardeckLB	3	1	0	0	1	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cam LittlePK	0/0	0.0	0	6/6	6

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jaguars ball security vs Colts takeaway defense
The Jaguars' ball security ranks 4th in turnovers per game (0.7 giveaways a game, 6 games) against a Colts takeaway defense ranked 31st (0.4 takeaways a game, 7 games).
4thJAX offense27 spots apart31stIND defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Jaguars pass defense vs Colts dropback offense
The Jaguars' pass defense ranks 13th in EPA per dropback (+0.04 allowed, 233 dropbacks faced) and faces a Colts dropback offense ranked 31st (-0.16, 266 dropbacks).
31stIND offense18 spots apart13thJAX defense
3Jaguars run game vs Colts run defense
The Jaguars' run game ranks 9th in EPA per rush (+0.01, 154 rushes) against a Colts run defense ranked 29th (-0.00 allowed, 163 rushes faced).
9thJAX offense20 spots apart29thIND defense

When the Colts have the ballEdge JAX · +18 ranks

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackJAX pass defense

31st-0.16266 dropbacks

JAX +18

+0.04 allowed233 dropbacks faced13th

IND run gameEPA per rushJAX run defense

3rd+0.06190 rushes

-0.17 allowed121 rushes faced3rd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Jaguars have the ballEdge JAX · +20 ranks

JAX dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

4th+0.27201 dropbacks

JAX +17

+0.08 allowed237 dropbacks faced21st

JAX run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

9th+0.01154 rushes

JAX +20

-0.00 allowed163 rushes faced29th

Third downNo big edge

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion rateJAX third-down defense

13th41.2%97 third downs

38.2% allowed68 third downs faced10th

JAX third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

5th48.6%72 third downs

30.4% allowed79 third downs faced3rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge JAX · +11 ranks

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateJAX red-zone defense

15th60%20 trips

JAX +11

40% allowed20 trips faced4th

JAX red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

12th63%19 trips

60% allowed20 trips faced17th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge JAX · +11 ranks

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play rateJAX defense against big plays

18th8.8%456 plays

JAX +10

7.9% allowed354 plays faced8th

JAX big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

6th10.7%355 plays

JAX +11

9.5% allowed400 plays faced17th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge JAX · +11 ranks

IND pass protectionsack rateJAX pass rush

23rd7.1% sacked266 dropbacks

4.7% of dropbacks233 dropbacks faced24th

JAX pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

11th5.0% sacked201 dropbacks

JAX +11

5.5% of dropbacks237 dropbacks faced22nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge JAX · +27 ranks

IND ball securityturnovers per gameJAX takeaway defense

28th1.7 giveaways a game7 games

JAX +24

1.5 takeaways a game6 games4th

JAX ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

4th0.7 giveaways a game6 games

JAX +27

0.4 takeaways a game7 games31st

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: IND 7 games, 456 offensive and 400 defensive plays · JAX 6 games, 355 offensive and 354 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Deion BurksWR→ Josh Downs

Ashton DulinWR→ Keenan Allen

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

Bryce BoettcherSLB→ Jaylon Carlies

Justin WalleyNB→ Kapena Gushiken

Ezra ClevelandRG→ Wyatt Milum

Davon GodchauxRDT→ Ruke Orhorhoro

Dennis GardeckSLB→ Bryan Thomas Jr.

Antonio JohnsonFS→ Rayuan Lane III

Jessie Bates IIISS→ Kaevon Merriweather

AwayColts1 next man up · 3 questionable · 5 changes