Pigskin Nightly
More
GamedayScores & liveEvery game, live field, drive chartVideoHighlights for every gameStartersProjected, last game, confirmedInjury reportWho is out this weekTravel & restMiles, time zones, short weeks
AnalyticsThe VerdictWho deserved to win, graded weeklyEPA mapEvery offense and defenseWith / WithoutTeam splits when a starter sitsMilestone WatchCareer marks within reachCompare playersSide by side, every numberDFS researchDefense vs position, usage, totalsFree widgetsLive scores and stats for your siteGlossaryWhat every number means
The LabAll Lab toolsOriginal tools, built from every snapDeserved StandingsThe table the snaps would have builtSliding DoorsThe play that could have flipped itClock IQEvery staff against the clockRef Crew ReportEvery officiating crew, in numbersMarket vs SnapsWhere the line and the tape disagreeScheme DNAEvery playbook's fingerprintGame DNAEvery game drawn as one strandPaid vs PlayedEvery contract against the fieldLoudest StadiumsCrowd noise, measured since 1999Turf vs GrassInjuries by playing surfaceWeather LedgerReal weather, every game since 2000Line MovementOpening vs closing, every game since 2023
ClubsStandingsDivisions and playoff seedsPlayoff odds10,000 simulated seasonsStrength of scheduleThe road left for all 32All 32 teamsHubs, depth charts, snapsRostersEvery player, every teamNewsroomThe 32 club desksHow we writeOur editorial standards
Week 10
Latest
InjuryDohnte Meyers: Active → Clearedjust nowPro Football RumorsFalcons To Sign Jake Moody Off Ravens’ Practice Squad, Release Nick FolkPro Football RumorsBroncos TE Evan Engram Generating Trade Interest49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoArizona CardinalsYou've Got Mail: Banged Up But Battling ForwardInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful18 min agoPro Football RumorsPatriots WR A.J. Brown Could Miss Week 10 With Knee IssueBaltimore RavensJesse Minter Could Shake Up Ravens DefenseInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoESPNBengals trade for Eagles LB Arnold Ebiketie, sources saySaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score44 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out51 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score54 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 · AFC North · through Week 9

Ravens logoBaltimore RavensThe Verdict

Ravens are 4-5; the play says 4.2 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-2 in one-score games. On fourth down, Jesse Minter kicked away 3 of 9 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 20th of 32−0.24-5 real · 4.2 deserved · 3.3 Pythagorean
Luck points · 24th of 32−6.2fumble bounces −2.0 · opponents' kicks −4.2
Chicken Index · 27th of 3233%Jesse Minter · 3.0 expected points lost on 41 graded calls
Flags net · 29th of 32−59.9 WP74 flags for 539 yards against · 49 drawn

Every game, judged

Lucky 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: BAL @ DAL, where the Cowboys lost with a 74% deserved win probability. 2 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Jaguars logoJaguars46% success · +0.11 EPA/play
3310
Ravens logoRavens32% success · −0.37 EPA/play

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 19.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 19.0
Real marginJAX by 23
Luck pts JAX−6.7
Luck pts BAL+4.3

The swingQ1 14:17 · JAX · +14 pts of win probability. 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 87-N.Boerkircher to BAL 21 for 52 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Ravens logoRavens33% success · −0.42 EPA/play
1036
Bills logoBills49% success · +0.04 EPA/play

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 18.5, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBUF by 18.5
Real marginBUF by 26
Luck pts BAL−4.2
Luck pts BUF+4.8

The swingQ2 1:21 · BAL · −16 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Igbinosun (25-G.Stone) at 50. 21-D.Igbinosun to BAL 33 for 17 yards (79-R.Stanley; 6-J.Lane).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-2Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−2.0 ptsKept 3 of 8 own fumbles; won 5 of 9 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−4.2 ptsOpponents made 20 of 22 field goals against an expected 18.6, and 20 of 21 extra points.
Own kicking−2.0 ptsMade 14 of 18 field goals against 14.7 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.01419th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-3Our pregame model in Ravens games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Jesse Minter · 41 graded fourth downs · went for it 10×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 2.1 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Punt at own 37, Wk 2 Q4 8:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
  2. 2BAL · 4th & 4Jesse Minter chose Field goal at opp 8, Wk 8 Q3 11:31, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.41 EP
  3. 3BAL · 4th & 5Jesse Minter chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 5 Q1 4:53, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.37 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Go for it at opp 5, Wk 4 Q1 12:13, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  2. 2BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Go for it at own 30, Wk 3 Q1 6:12, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  3. 3BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Go for it at own 29, Wk 9 Q2 4:37, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4BAL · 4th & 1Jesse Minter chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 3 Q4 13:07, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 6 · opp 35 · Q1 6:369Field goalField goal0.79-0.111.46✓good
4th & 11 · own 43 · Q2 9:429PuntPunt-1.06-0.52–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 29 · Q2 4:379Go for itGo for it0.10-1.11–✓converted
4th & 9 · own 45 · Q2 2:129PuntPunt-0.79-0.46–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q2 0:229Puntnot graded0.14-0.67–punted
4th & 4 · own 36 · Q3 10:139Puntnot graded-0.67-0.79–punted
4th & 11 · own 30 · Q3 6:009Puntnot graded-1.89-1.06–punted
4th & 1 · opp 41 · Q3 3:079Go for itnot graded1.96-0.160.55stopped
4th & 10 · own 29 · Q1 8:428PuntPunt-1.89-1.11–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 35 · Q1 4:248PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.93-0.83–✓punted
4th & 16 · opp 16 · Q2 7:418Field goalField goal0.64–2.78✓missed
4th & 5 · own 28 · Q2 4:338PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.38-1.16–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 8 · Q3 11:318Field goalGo for it3.32–2.91−0.41good
4th & 9 · own 33 · Q3 8:028Puntnot graded-1.55-0.92–punted
4th & 6 · own 27 · Q3 1:088Puntnot graded-1.60-1.21–punted
4th & 3 · own 44 · Q4 9:358Go for itnot graded0.09-0.49–stopped
4th & 12 · own 16 · Q1 6:537PuntPunt-2.91-1.87–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 16 · Q2 9:467Field goalField goal2.08–2.78✓good
4th & 3 · opp 6 · Q2 0:537Field goalnot graded3.73–2.92good
4th & 15 · own 21 · Q3 7:267PuntPunt-2.72-1.55–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 12 · Q4 15:007Go for itGo for it3.39–2.86✓stopped
4th & 7 · own 40 · Q4 9:267PuntPunt-0.90-0.63–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 48 · Q4 4:447Go for itnot graded1.52-0.28–stopped
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q1 8:146Go for itGo for it3.29–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 9 · opp 16 · Q1 4:406Field goalField goal1.73–2.78✓good
4th & 9 · own 37 · Q2 14:306PuntPunt-1.29-0.75–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 24 · Q2 9:206PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.17-1.38–−0.21punted
4th & 8 · own 31 · Q2 1:426Puntnot graded-1.58-1.01–punted
4th & 15 · own 38 · Q2 0:076Puntnot graded-1.59-0.71–punted
4th & 10 · 50 · Q3 4:586PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.56-0.32–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 31 · Q4 14:186Field goalField goal0.58-0.111.92✓missed
4th & 3 · own 23 · Q4 7:096PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.23-1.43–−0.20punted
4th & 7 · own 41 · Q4 2:086Puntnot graded-0.84-0.59–punted
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q1 10:305Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94✓good
4th & 5 · opp 49 · Q1 4:535PuntGo for it0.07-0.30–−0.37punted
4th & 8 · own 40 · Q2 12:305PuntPunt-1.01-0.63–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 33 · Q2 8:085Field goalField goal0.79-0.111.70✓good
4th & 17 · opp 33 · Q2 0:035Field goalnot graded0.17-0.111.70good
4th & 11 · own 38 · Q3 1:385PuntPunt-1.38-0.71–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 38 · Q4 6:305PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.54-0.71–−0.16punted
4th & 1 · opp 5 · Q1 12:134Go for itGo for it4.98–2.93✓touchdown
4th & 18 · own 45 · Q1 2:354PuntPunt-1.25-0.46–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 19 · Q2 1:054Puntnot graded-1.49-1.67–punted
4th & 3 · own 41 · Q3 12:484Puntnot graded-0.10-0.59–punted
4th & 10 · opp 48 · Q3 3:444Puntnot graded-0.43-0.28–punted
4th & 11 · own 47 · Q3 0:114Puntnot graded-0.81-0.40–punted
4th & 8 · own 44 · Q4 10:254Puntnot graded-0.76-0.49–punted
4th & 6 · opp 22 · Q4 3:244Field goalnot graded1.66–2.57missed
4th & 4 · own 29 · Q1 13:373PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.11-1.11–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 30 · Q1 6:123Go for itGo for it0.17-1.06–✓stopped
4th & 6 · opp 9 · Q2 4:483Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.79–2.90✓good
4th & 14 · own 21 · Q3 9:083PuntPunt-2.67-1.55–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q4 13:073Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓stopped
4th & 5 · own 45 · Q4 7:403PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.30-0.46–−0.16punted
4th & 6 · own 29 · Q1 13:322PuntPunt-1.47-1.11–✓punted
4th & 13 · opp 31 · Q2 10:152Field goalField goal0.46-0.111.92✓blocked
4th & 22 · opp 31 · Q3 3:282Field goalField goal0.17-0.111.92✓good
4th & 26 · own 35 · Q3 0:052PuntPunt-2.09-0.83–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 37 · Q4 8:142PuntGo for it0.60-0.75–−1.34punted
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q2 12:071Go for itField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94−0.15stopped
4th & 15 · own 29 · Q2 1:391Puntnot graded-2.18-1.11–punted
4th & 5 · own 39 · Q3 12:571Puntnot graded-0.68-0.67–punted
4th & 11 · 50 · Q3 4:311Puntnot graded-0.62-0.32–punted
4th & 3 · opp 27 · Q4 4:131Field goalnot graded1.94–2.27good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Roughing the Passer on BAL in Week 2, worth +18 points of win probability to NO.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Roughing the PasserBAL → helped NO · Wk 2 Q4 2:03 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson,…+18.2 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceBAL → helped DAL · Wk 3 Q4 0:28 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass…+11.3 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserBAL → helped DAL · Wk 3 Q3 2:55 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at BAL 33 for 19 yards (0-R.Smith; 29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on…+10.0 WP
  4. 4Neutral Zone InfractionBAL → helped JAX · Wk 9 Q1 4:25 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.+9.6 WP
  5. 5Defensive OffsideBAL → helped CLE · Wk 6 Q4 0:02 · 25-A.Szmyt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (38-K.Martin), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by BAL-98-T.Jones…+8.0 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
False Start2411533.8
Roughing the Passer21828.2
Defensive Pass Interference69221.2
Offensive Holding1212019.3
Neutral Zone Infraction159.6
Defensive Offside3158.2
Delay of Game5258.2
Defensive Holding4156.6

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped BAL · Wk 3 Q2 11:37 · (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49…+19.0 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserBUF → helped BAL · Wk 8 Q3 14:06 · (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to BUF 43 for 22 yards (3-D.Hamlin). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing…+7.9 WP
  3. 3Delay of GameCLE → helped BAL · Wk 6 Q4 5:09 · PENALTY on CLE, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 39 - No Play.+6.8 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped BAL · Wk 9 Q2 3:07 · (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass incomplete short left to 4-Z.Flowers. PENALTY on JAX-2-J.Lewis, Defensive Pass Interference, 9…+6.7 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserCLE → helped BAL · Wk 6 Q1 6:33 · 5-T.Huntley pass short right to 85-J.Cuevas to CLE 32 for 29 yards (33-R.Hickman). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing the…+5.9 WP

Garbage Time Tax

22.7% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 11th most of 32

Bottom lineDerrick Henry: 166 of 691 yards (24%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Lamar JacksonBAL · passing · 967 yds18%
Derrick HenryBAL · rushing · 691 yds24%
Zay FlowersBAL · receiving · 614 yds5%
Rashod BatemanBAL · receiving · 294 yds12%

Our picks on the Ravens

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Ravens 25% at home against jaguars. 33-10 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Ravens 43% at bills. 10-36 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Ravens 58% at home against bengals. 35-13 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Ravens 66% at browns. 10-13 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Ravens 57% at falcons. 30-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Ravens 73% at home against titans. 18-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Ravens 61% at cowboys. 34-31 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Ravens 73% at home against saints. 24-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Baltimore Ravens verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/ravens/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.