Giants 27, Commanders 27: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Northwest StadiumFinal/OT

Final

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
NYG	3	0	10	14	0	27
WSH	6	6	7	8	0	27

Home · 2-5-1WashingtonCommanders27

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 5:29 AM ET

The New York Giants and the Washington Commanders tied 27-27 on Sun, Oct 11 at Northwest Stadium in Landover, MD (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Giants 5-2-1, Commanders 2-5-1. J.Winston (NYG) led all players with +14.7 EPA on 60 dropbacks.

Who won Giants vs Commanders?

It ended in a 27-27 tie.

Who was the best player in Giants vs Commanders?

By expected points added: J.Winston (NYG, +14.7 EPA on 60 dropbacks), I.Likely (NYG, +10.4 EPA on 13 targets) and J.Daniels (WAS, +7.8 EPA on 38 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Giants vs Commanders?

The biggest swing in win probability (42 points toward the Commanders) came in overtime at 2:00: (Shotgun) C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (D.Payne; S.Styles). FUMBLES (D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-S.Tuttle at WAS 23.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Giants 27, Commanders 27: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-nyg-at-wsh (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5TieGame file →

Giants48% success · +0.11 EPA/play

2727

Commanders45% success · +0.08 EPA/play

NYG 66% deserveddeserved 34% WSH

A tie on the scoreboard. The snaps said Giants by 2.3.

Deserved marginNYG by 2.3

Real marginTie

Luck pts NYG−5.5

Luck pts WSH+10.5

The swingOT 8:01 · NYG · −49 pts of win probability. 34-D.Zvada 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout.

Flags that moved this game

1Face MaskWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 9:56 · (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on…+8.9 WP
2Delay of GameWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 5:43 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play.+6.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NYG · 4th & 2John Harbaugh chose Punt at own 32, Wk 5 Q1 3:47, down 6. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP
2NYG · 4th & 2John Harbaugh chose Field goal at opp 37, Wk 5 Q3 10:58, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.46 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA172 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 14 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClete Blakeman16 accepted flags in this game · 15.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: WSH by 3.5 · Snaps: NYG by 2.3Giants covered; the snaps agree

27@27

Week 5Changes the winner

If the Giants had fallen on their own fumble

Giants after the play45%what really happened

Q5 2:00 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (94-D.Payne; 52-S.Styles). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-96-S.Tuttle at WAS 23.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

50%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

WSH ▲NYG ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The five biggest swings

+42%OT 2:00 · for WSH(Shotgun) C.Skattebo up the middle to WAS 24 for no gain (D.Payne; S.Styles). FUMBLES (D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-S.Tuttle at WAS 23.
+39%OT 0:12 · for NYGJ.Daniels sacked at NYG 24 for 0 yards (T.Edmunds).
+27%OT 10:00 · for NYGD.Stevens kicks 64 yards from WAS 35 to NYG 1. T.Tracy pushed ob at NYG 33 for 32 yards (C.Yankoff).
+22%Q4 0:15 · for WSHT.Way punts 52 yards to NYG 2, Center-T.Ott, downed by WAS-I.Yiadom.
+19%OT 4:40 · for NYG(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Winston pass deep middle to M.Nabers to WAS 36 for 28 yards (Q.Martin).

Every drive, on the field

WSH attacks →← NYG attacks

Q1 15:00TD4p · 69y · 2:00
Q1 13:00MISS10p · 37y · 5:49
Q1 7:11PUNT3p · -4y · 1:21
Q1 5:50PUNT3p · 8y · 2:13
Q1 3:37PUNT3p · -8y · 1:02
Q1 2:35FG5p · 22y · 1:40
Q1 0:55FG14p · 63y · 6:58
Q2 8:57PUNT5p · -5y · 3:57
Q2 5:00PUNT3p · 0y · 2:10
Q2 2:50FUM2p · -6y · 0:52
Q2 1:58FG4p · 5y · 0:56
Q2 1:02MISS8p · 26y · 1:00
Q2 0:02HALF1p · -1y · 0:02
Q3 15:00FG7p · 30y · 4:06
Q3 10:54TD5p · 77y · 3:07
Q3 7:47TD13p · 63y · 7:03
Q3 0:44TD8p · 81y · 4:39
Q4 11:05TD9p · 75y · 3:45
Q4 7:20PUNT3p · -4y · 2:24
Q4 4:56TD10p · 72y · 3:13
Q4 1:43PUNT4p · 19y · 1:37
Q4 0:06HALF1p · -1y · 0:06
Q5 10:00MISS8p · 39y · 2:03
Q5 7:57PUNT4p · 13y · 2:24
Q5 5:33FUM8p · 67y · 3:38
Q5 1:55END6p · 53y · 1:55

Giants12 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Commanders11 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position4three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
13:00Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.0–6
Q1
0:55Field goalD.Zvada 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout.3–6
Q2
8:57Field goalD.Stevens 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.3–9
Q2
1:02Field goalD.Stevens 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.3–12
Q3
10:54Field goalD.Zvada 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout.6–12
Q3
7:47Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels scrambles up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.6–19
Q3
0:44Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Winston pass short right to I.Likely for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout.13–19
Q4
11:05Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Daniels scrambles left tackle for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Daniels pass to T.McLaurin is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.13–27
Q4
7:20Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Winston pass short middle to I.Likely to WAS 1 for 16 yards (Q.Martin, R.Douglas) [K.Chaisson]. FUMBLES (R.Douglas), RECOVERED by WAS-R.Douglas at WAS -5. Touchback.The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Winston pass short middle to I.Likely for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN [K.Chaisson]. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout.20–27
Q4
1:43Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Winston pass deep middle to M.Nabers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Zvada extra point is GOOD, Center-B.Mann, Holder-J.Stout. ** Injury Update: WAS-J.Kinlaw has returned to the game.27–27

Team stats

NYGvsWSH

408Total yards378

305Passing yards176

103Rushing yards202

4.9Yards per play6.3

29First downs20

8-17 · 47%Third down4-12 · 33%

2-2Fourth down0-0

3-3Red zone TDs0-1

33/54Comp / att17/25

3.7Yards per carry6.7

2Turnovers0

2 (−21 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−23 yds)

7 for 35Penalties9 for 69

39:25Possession30:35

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.065+0.111

Dropback EPA+0.244+0.205

Rush EPA-0.403-0.052

Success rate48%45%

Explosive plays69

Plays8360

Who moved the needle

J.WinstonDropbacks: 60+14.7

I.LikelyTargets: 13+10.4

J.DanielsDropbacks: 38+7.8

J.Croskey-MerrittCarries: 11+3.4

M.NabersTargets: 20+3.4

C.OkonkwoTargets: 6+3.3

Cost their side the most

D.MooneyTargets: 7-3.7

C.SkatteboCarries: 13-2.6—

N.HarrisCarries: 5-2.3

Box score

New York Giants

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jameis WinstonQB	33/54	326	6.0	3	0	2-21	77.2	96.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Cam SkatteboRB	13	59	4.5	19
Jameis WinstonQB	5	27	5.4	15
Najee Harris	5	9	1.8	7
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB	3	6	2.0	3
J.J. McCarthyQB	2	2	1.0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Malik NabersWR	11	20	121	11.0	1	28
Isaiah LikelyTE	11	13	94	8.5	2	17
Theo JohnsonTE	2	3	35	17.5	0	21
Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB	2	3	25	12.5	0	21
Malachi FieldsWR	2	2	20	10.0	0	13
Darnell MooneyWR	2	7	14	7.0	0	7
Cam SkatteboRB	2	3	12	6.0	0	7
Najee Harris	1	1	5	5.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Tremaine EdmundsLB	9	6	1	1	0	1
Arvell ReeseLB	9	3	1	1	0	1
Deonte BanksCB	6	4	0	0	1	0
Dru PhillipsCB	5	5	2	2	0	4
Abdul CarterLB	5	2	1	1	0	1
DJ ReaderDT	5	2	0	0	0	0
Greg Newsome IICB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Tyler NubinS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Ar'Darius WashingtonS	3	2	0	0	0	0
Colton HoodCB	3	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Dominic ZvadaPK	2/5	40.0	56	3/3	9

Washington Commanders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jayden DanielsQB	17/25	199	8.0	0	0	5-23	78.1	91.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jayden DanielsQB	9	103	11.4	2	38
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB	11	82	7.5	1	33
Rachaad WhiteRB	7	18	2.6	0	5
Austin EkelerRB	3	-1	-0.3	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Terry McLaurinWR	4	4	62	15.5	22
Chig OkonkwoTE	4	6	60	15.0	25
Antonio WilliamsWR	3	3	31	10.3	17
Treylon BurksWR	2	5	26	13.0	13
Austin EkelerRB	1	1	15	15.0	15
Dyami BrownWR	1	2	2	2.0	2
Rachaad WhiteRB	1	1	2	2.0	2
John BatesTE	1	1	1	1.0	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Sonny StylesLB	13	4	1	1	0
Rasul DouglasCB	10	9	2	1	0
Frankie LuvuLB	9	6	0	0	1
Quan MartinS	8	3	0	0	0
Amik RobertsonCB	7	6	0	1	0
Jeremy ReavesS	7	4	0	1	0
Mike SainristilCB	5	4	0	0	0
Fabian MoreauCB	4	4	0	1	0
Deatrich Wise Jr.DE	3	3	0	0	0
Colson YankoffTE	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Drew StevensPK	2/2	100.0	40	1/2	7

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Commanders pass protection vs Giants pass rush
The Commanders' pass protection ranks 2nd in sack rate (3.2% sacked, 157 dropbacks) against a Giants pass rush ranked 32nd (2.1% of dropbacks, 143 dropbacks faced).
2ndWSH offense30 spots apart32ndNYG defense
2Commanders defense against big plays vs Giants big-play offense
The Commanders' defense against big plays ranks 14th in explosive-play rate (9.0% allowed, 233 plays faced) and faces a Giants big-play offense ranked 31st (6.3%, 240 plays).
31stNYG offense17 spots apart14thWSH defense
3Giants third-down offense vs Commanders third-down defense
The Giants' third-down offense ranks 10th in third-down conversion rate (44.2%, 52 third downs) against a Commanders third-down defense ranked 24th (44.9% allowed, 49 third downs faced).
10thNYG offense14 spots apart24thWSH defense

When the Giants have the ballEdge WSH · +8 ranks

NYG dropback offenseEPA per dropbackWSH pass defense

19th+0.03127 dropbacks

+0.10 allowed152 dropbacks faced23rd

NYG run gameEPA per rushWSH run defense

21st-0.13113 rushes

WSH +8

-0.10 allowed81 rushes faced13th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Commanders have the ballNo big edge

WSH dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNYG pass defense

17th+0.03157 dropbacks

+0.03 allowed143 dropbacks faced12th

WSH run gameEPA per rushNYG run defense

24th-0.16102 rushes

-0.01 allowed85 rushes faced25th

Third downEdge NYG · +14 ranks

NYG third-down offensethird-down conversion rateWSH third-down defense

10th44.2%52 third downs

NYG +14

44.9% allowed49 third downs faced24th

WSH third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNYG third-down defense

31st31.6%57 third downs

50.0% allowed44 third downs faced28th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NYG · +14 ranks

NYG red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateWSH red-zone defense

17th55%11 trips

NYG +14

80% allowed15 trips faced31st

WSH red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNYG red-zone defense

15th58%12 trips

WSH +12

75% allowed12 trips faced27th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge WSH · +17 ranks

NYG big-play offenseexplosive-play rateWSH defense against big plays

31st6.3%240 plays

WSH +17

9.0% allowed233 plays faced14th

WSH big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNYG defense against big plays

23rd7.7%259 plays

NYG +15

8.3% allowed228 plays faced8th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge WSH · +30 ranks

NYG pass protectionsack rateWSH pass rush

27th8.7% sacked127 dropbacks

4.6% of dropbacks152 dropbacks faced23rd

WSH pass protectionsack rateNYG pass rush

2nd3.2% sacked157 dropbacks

WSH +30

2.1% of dropbacks143 dropbacks faced32nd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

NYG ball securityturnovers per gameWSH takeaway defense

18th1.3 giveaways a game4 games

1.3 takeaways a game4 games11th

WSH ball securityturnovers per gameNYG takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game4 games

1.8 takeaways a game4 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NYG 4 games, 240 offensive and 228 defensive plays · WSH 4 games, 259 offensive and 233 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

J.J. McCarthyQB→ Jameis Winston

Devin SingletaryRB→ Cam Skattebo

Aaron StinnieRG→ Francis Mauigoa

Micah McFaddenRILB→ Tremaine Edmunds

Ar'Darius WashingtonSS→ Tyler Nubin

Stefon DiggsWR→ Terry McLaurin

Nick AllegrettiC→ Lucas Patrick

Charles OmenihuLDE→ Daron Payne

Tim SettleNT→ Javon Kinlaw

Shy TuttleRDE→ K'Lavon Chaisson

Nick CrossSS→ Mike Sainristil