Ravens 30, Falcons 23: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Mercedes-Benz StadiumFinal/OT

Final

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
BAL	3	6	6	8	7	30
ATL	7	7	3	6	0	23

Home · 3-6AtlantaFalcons23

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

The Baltimore Ravens beat the Atlanta Falcons 30-23 on Sun, Oct 11 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Ravens 4-5, Falcons 3-6. D.London (ATL) led all players with +7.5 EPA on 11 targets.

Who won Ravens vs Falcons?

The Baltimore Ravens won 30-23. By quarter: BAL 3-6-6-8-7, ATL 7-7-3-6-0.

Who was the best player in Ravens vs Falcons?

By expected points added: D.London (ATL, +7.5 EPA on 11 targets), M.Penix (ATL, +5.9 EPA on 37 dropbacks) and K.Pitts (ATL, +5.7 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Ravens vs Falcons?

The biggest swing in win probability (27 points toward the Ravens) came in Q4 at 0:40: T.Loop kicks 63 yards from BLT 35 to ATL 2. Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 21 yards (E.Burke; R.Ali).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Ravens 30, Falcons 23: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-bal-at-atl (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Ravens47% success · +0.10 EPA/play

3023

Falcons34% success · −0.05 EPA/play

BAL 91% deserveddeserved 10% ATL

Ravens earned it: the snaps said Ravens by 7.2, a deserved win probability of 91%.

Deserved marginBAL by 7.2

Real marginBAL by 7

Luck pts BAL−4.9

Luck pts ATL+2.3

The swingQ1 8:14 · BAL · −20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 5-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to BAL 34 for 9 yards (0-D.Deablo, 29-S.Brown). FUMBLES (29-S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-3-J.Bates at BAL 36. 3-J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingATL → helped BAL · Wk 5 Q2 12:30 · 30-R.Eckley punts 54 yards to ATL 6, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 18 for 12 yards (46-N.Moore). PENALTY on…+3.3 WP
2Neutral Zone InfractionATL → helped BAL · Wk 5 OT 4:10 · PENALTY on ATL-94-L.London, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at ATL 28 - No Play.+3.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1ATL · 4th & 2Kevin Stefanski chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q1 2:39, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP
2BAL · 4th & 5Jesse Minter chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 5 Q1 4:53, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.37 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA158 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBrad Allen12 accepted flags in this game · 15 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: ATL by 3.5 · Snaps: BAL by 7.2Ravens covered; the snaps agree

30@23

Week 5

If the Falcons had converted that fourth-and-2

Falcons after the play56%what really happened

Q3 3:47 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass short left to 89-C.Woerner to BAL 41 for -2 yards (9-Z.Young) [44-M.Humphrey]. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 62-C.Levin reported in as eligible. 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short left to 89-C.Woerner [44-M.Humphrey]. ** Injury Update: BAL-14-K.Hamilton has returned to the game.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

ATL ▲BAL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The five biggest swings

+27%Q4 0:40 · for BALT.Loop kicks 63 yards from BLT 35 to ATL 2. Br.Robinson to ATL 23 for 21 yards (E.Burke; R.Ali).
+23%Q4 0:27 · for BAL(Shotgun) M.Penix sacked at ATL 31 for -10 yards (T.Robinson). FUMBLES (T.Robinson) [T.Robinson], recovered by ATL-R.Neuzil at ATL 31. ATL-M.Penix was injured during the play.
+14%Q1 8:03 · for ATL(Shotgun) T.Huntley pass short middle to M.Andrews to BLT 34 for 9 yards (D.Deablo, S.Brown). FUMBLES (S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-J.Bates at BLT 36. J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
+14%Q4 0:19 · for ATL(Shotgun) T.Tagovailoa pass short left to Bi.Robinson ran ob at ATL 45 for 14 yards (R.Smith).
+13%OT 2:11 · for BAL(Shotgun) T.Tagovailoa pass short middle intended for D.London INTERCEPTED by K.Hamilton at BLT 40. K.Hamilton to BLT 42 for 2 yards (D.London).

Every drive, on the field

ATL attacks →← BAL attacks

Q1 15:00FG10p · 62y · 4:33
Q1 10:27PUNT3p · 4y · 0:54
Q1 9:33FUM3p · 11y · 1:30
Q1 8:03PUNT6p · 16y · 3:16
Q1 4:47PUNT4p · 28y · 2:16
Q1 2:31PUNT8p · 26y · 5:14
Q2 12:17PUNT3p · 5y · 1:42
Q2 10:35FG5p · 20y · 2:31
Q2 8:04TD9p · 78y · 5:40
Q2 2:24FG11p · 47y · 2:24
Q3 15:00FG10p · 60y · 5:09
Q3 9:51TD5p · 74y · 2:58
Q3 6:53DOWNS6p · 19y · 3:14
Q3 3:39PUNT3p · -1y · 2:10
Q3 1:29FG16p · 74y · 8:26
Q4 8:03PUNT3p · 6y · 1:40
Q4 6:23FG10p · 52y · 3:52
Q4 2:31TD6p · 71y · 1:51
Q4 0:40PUNT4p · 22y · 0:40
Q5 10:00TD14p · 68y · 7:03
Q5 2:57INT2p · 20y · 0:52

Ravens11 drives7scoring drives (4 TD)64%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Falcons10 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 21avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:27Field goalT.Loop 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.3–0
Q1
8:03Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Huntley pass short middle to M.Andrews to BLT 34 for 9 yards (D.Deablo, S.Brown). FUMBLES (S.Brown), RECOVERED by ATL-J.Bates at BLT 36. J.Bates for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.3–7
Q2
8:04Field goalT.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.6–7
Q2
2:24Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short middle to K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.6–14
Q2
0:00Field goal T.Loop 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.9–14
Q3
9:51Field goalN.Folk 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.9–17
Q3
6:53TouchdownT.Huntley pass short left to D.Henry for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Huntley pass to M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.15–17
Q4
8:03Field goalN.Folk 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.15–20
Q4
2:31Field goalN.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.15–23
Q4
0:40Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Huntley pass short left to D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Henry rushes left end. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. ** Injury Update: ATL-M.Hughes has returned to the game.23–23
OT
2:57TouchdownT.Huntley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.30–23

Team stats

BALvsATL

391Total yards367

183Passing yards257

208Rushing yards110

5.5Yards per play5.7

24First downs17

8-15 · 53%Third down9-17 · 53%

0-0Fourth down0-1

3-4Red zone TDs1-3

24/32Comp / att21/35

5.9Yards per carry4.2

1Turnovers1

4 (−18 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−17 yds)

5 for 40Penalties7 for 67

35:10Possession32:45

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.038-0.022

Dropback EPA-0.144+0.111

Rush EPA+0.254-0.243

Success rate47%34%

Explosive plays76

Plays7264

Who moved the needle

D.LondonTargets: 11+7.5

M.PenixDropbacks: 37+5.9

K.PittsTargets: 6+5.7

R.BatemanTargets: 6+5.0

J.HillCarries: 4+4.1

T.HuntleyCarries: 4+2.7

Cost their side the most

M.AndrewsTargets: 7-9.3

T.HuntleyDropbacks: 38-4.9

Br.RobinsonCarries: 7-4.0

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Tyler HuntleyQB	24/32	201	6.3	2	0	3-16	80.1	111.6
Zay FlowersWR	0/0	0	0.0	0	0	1-2	0.1	0.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Derrick HenryRB	24	102	4.3	0	11
Justice HillRB	4	73	18.3	0	47
Tyler HuntleyQB	6	20	3.3	1	15
Zay FlowersWR	1	13	13.0	0	13

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rashod BatemanWR	5	6	62	12.4	0	20
Zay FlowersWR	8	9	53	6.6	0	12
Mark AndrewsTE	4	6	28	7.0	0	10
Josh CuevasTE	2	2	26	13.0	0	17
Derrick HenryRB	1	2	18	18.0	1	18
Devontez WalkerWR	2	2	9	4.5	1	7
Justice HillRB	2	4	5	2.5	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Malaki StarksS	10	6	0	2	0	0
Roquan SmithLB	8	5	0	0	0	0
Trenton SimpsonLB	7	5	1	1	0	1
Kyle HamiltonS	6	6	0	0	1	0
Tavius RobinsonLB	6	3	1	1	1	1
Marlon HumphreyCB	4	2	0	0	0	1
Jaylinn HawkinsS	3	2	0	0	0	0
Rasheen AliRB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Ethan BurkeLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Mike GreenLB	2	2	1	2	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler LoopPK	3/3	100.0	51	1/1	10

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Michael Penix Jr.QB	19/32	240	7.5	1	0	3-17	55.1	93.2
Tua TagovailoaQB	2/3	34	11.3	0	1	0-0	0.1	65.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bijan RobinsonRB	17	86	5.1	38
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	7	16	2.3	4
Michael Penix Jr.QB	2	8	4.0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drake LondonWR	7	11	118	16.9	0	25
Jahan DotsonWR	2	4	54	27.0	0	36
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE	5	6	42	8.4	1	13
Bijan RobinsonRB	4	7	32	8.0	0	14
Zachariah BranchWR	2	2	15	7.5	0	23
Charlie WoernerTE	1	2	13	13.0	0	13
Jake MatthewsOT	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Divine DeabloLB	12	5	0	0	0	0
Xavier WattsS	10	5	0	0	1	0
Kendal DanielsLB	8	7	1	0	1	1
Jessie Bates IIIS	6	4	0	0	0	0
Mike HughesCB	6	3	0	0	0	0
Sydney BrownS	5	3	0	0	0	0
LaCale LondonDE	5	1	0	0	0	0
Zach HarrisonDE	5	0	0.5	0	0	1
Gervon Dexter Sr.DT	4	4	0	2	0	0
Cameron ThomasDE	4	1	0.5	0	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Nick FolkPK	3/3	100.0	48	2/2	11

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Ravens pass defense vs Falcons dropback offense
The Ravens' pass defense ranks 8th in EPA per dropback (-0.01 allowed, 156 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons dropback offense ranked 30th (-0.20, 112 dropbacks).
30thATL offense22 spots apart8thBAL defense
2Falcons run game vs Ravens run defense
The Falcons' run game ranks 2nd in EPA per rush (+0.13, 131 rushes) against a Ravens run defense ranked 22nd (-0.03 allowed, 92 rushes faced).
2ndATL offense20 spots apart22ndBAL defense
3Falcons third-down defense vs Ravens third-down offense
The Falcons' third-down defense ranks 10th in third-down conversion rate (37.5% allowed, 56 third downs faced) and faces a Ravens third-down offense ranked 28th (33.3%, 36 third downs).
28thBAL offense18 spots apart10thATL defense

When the Ravens have the ballEdge BAL · +9 ranks

BAL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

2nd+0.35121 dropbacks

BAL +9

+0.01 allowed187 dropbacks faced11th

BAL run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

6th+0.01111 rushes

-0.25 allowed65 rushes faced1st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Falcons have the ballEdge BAL · +22 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBAL pass defense

30th-0.20112 dropbacks

BAL +22

-0.01 allowed156 dropbacks faced8th

ATL run gameEPA per rushBAL run defense

2nd+0.13131 rushes

ATL +20

-0.03 allowed92 rushes faced22nd

Third downEdge ATL · +18 ranks

BAL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

28th33.3%36 third downs

ATL +18

37.5% allowed56 third downs faced10th

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBAL third-down defense

20th37.2%43 third downs

BAL +10

37.5% allowed48 third downs faced10th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

BAL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

7th73%15 trips

56% allowed16 trips faced9th

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBAL red-zone defense

2nd80%10 trips

56% allowed16 trips faced9th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge ATL · +8 ranks

BAL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

2nd14.2%232 plays

6.7% allowed252 plays faced5th

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBAL defense against big plays

7th10.7%243 plays

ATL +8

9.3% allowed248 plays faced15th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge BAL · +10 ranks

BAL pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

17th5.8% sacked121 dropbacks

BAL +10

3.7% of dropbacks187 dropbacks faced27th

ATL pass protectionsack rateBAL pass rush

22nd7.1% sacked112 dropbacks

4.5% of dropbacks156 dropbacks faced24th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BAL · +18 ranks

BAL ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

4th0.5 giveaways a game4 games

BAL +18

0.8 takeaways a game4 games22nd

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameBAL takeaway defense

26th2.0 giveaways a game4 games

BAL +15

1.3 takeaways a game4 games11th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: BAL 4 games, 232 offensive and 248 defensive plays · ATL 4 games, 243 offensive and 252 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jacoby BrissettQB→ Tyler Huntley

Ja'Kobi LaneWR→ Devontez Walker

Cam JurgensC→ Emery Jones Jr.

Trey HendricksonSLB→ Tavius Robinson

Corey LevinC→ Ryan Neuzil

James Pearce Jr.SLB→ Samson Ebukam

A.J. Terrell Jr.LCB→ Mike Hughes

Sydney BrownNB→ Avieon Terrell

DeMarcco HellamsSS→ Jessie Bates III

AwayRavens3 questionable · 4 changes