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Pro Football RumorsFalcons To Sign Jake Moody Off Ravens’ Practice Squad, Release Nick FolkPro Football RumorsBroncos TE Evan Engram Generating Trade Interest49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoArizona CardinalsYou've Got Mail: Banged Up But Battling ForwardInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful18 min agoPro Football RumorsPatriots WR A.J. Brown Could Miss Week 10 With Knee IssueBaltimore RavensJesse Minter Could Shake Up Ravens DefenseInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoESPNBengals trade for Eagles LB Arnold Ebiketie, sources saySaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score44 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out50 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score54 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending SurgeryInjuryMaliek Collins: Out → Questionable1 h ago
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The Verdict2026 · NFC West · through Week 9

Seahawks logoSeattle SeahawksThe Verdict

Seahawks are 5-4; the play says 5.5 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Mike Macdonald kicked away 10 of 11 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 23rd of 32−0.55-4 real · 5.5 deserved · 5.7 Pythagorean
Luck points · 26th of 32−7.1fumble bounces −7.9 · opponents' kicks +0.8
Chicken Index · 2nd of 3291%Mike Macdonald · 6.7 expected points lost on 47 graded calls
Flags net · 28th of 32−42.1 WP65 flags for 594 yards against · 75 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play; 3 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Cardinals logoCardinals41% success · −0.29 EPA/play
317
Seahawks logoSeahawks43% success · +0.07 EPA/play

Seahawks earned it: the snaps said Seahawks by 15.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginSEA by 15.7
Real marginSEA by 14
Luck pts ARI+3.2
Luck pts SEA−3.8

The swingQ1 3:58 · SEA · +10 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock pass short left to 8-J.Price pushed ob at ARI 41 for 15 yards (5-B.Browning).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Bears logoBears52% success · +0.18 EPA/play
3417
Seahawks logoSeahawks32% success · −0.16 EPA/play

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 15.8, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginCHI by 15.8
Real marginCHI by 17
Luck pts CHI+1.6
Luck pts SEA+1.2

The swingQ2 0:37 · SEA · +15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−7.9 ptsKept 3 of 8 own fumbles; won 3 of 8 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+0.8 ptsOpponents made 12 of 15 field goals against an expected 12.2, and 16 of 17 extra points.
Own kicking+1.1 ptsMade 16 of 18 field goals against 15.6 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.0719th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-5Our pregame model in Seahawks games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Mike Macdonald · 47 graded fourth downs · went for it 10×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 6.0 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 30, Wk 1 Q1 4:42, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.23 EP
  2. 2SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 23, Wk 9 Q2 9:40, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.16 EP
  3. 3SEA · 4th & 2Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 37, Wk 8 Q1 3:26, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.76 EP
  4. 4SEA · 4th & 2Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 28, Wk 3 Q1 7:37, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.62 EP
  5. 5SEA · 4th & 2Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 26, Wk 5 Q1 9:34, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.60 EP
  6. 6SEA · 4th & 3Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 44, Wk 4 Q2 2:00, up 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.58 EP
  7. 7SEA · 4th & 4Mike Macdonald chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 9 Q1 6:23, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.56 EP
  8. 8SEA · 4th & 4Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 48, Wk 1 Q3 9:37, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.45 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Go for it at opp 45, Wk 1 Q4 11:38, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 5 · own 42 · Q1 14:269PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.49-0.56–−0.07punted
4th & 4 · opp 49 · Q1 6:239PuntGo for it0.26-0.30–−0.56punted
4th & 1 · own 23 · Q2 9:409PuntGo for it-0.27-1.43–−1.16punted
4th & 6 · own 30 · Q2 3:229PuntPunt-1.41-1.06–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 27 · Q3 3:549Field goalField goal1.08–2.27✓good
4th & 20 · own 38 · Q4 10:539Puntnot graded-1.76-0.71–punted
4th & 5 · own 37 · Q1 14:088PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.80-0.75–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 37 · Q1 3:268PuntGo for it0.02-0.75–−0.76punted
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q2 12:538Field goalField goal1.44–2.90✓good
4th & 8 · own 32 · Q2 9:418PuntPunt-1.52-0.96–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 26 · Q2 4:578PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.51-1.27–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 28 · Q3 12:088PuntPunt-1.87-1.16–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 15 · Q4 14:138Field goalField goal1.75–2.80✓blocked
4th & 1 · opp 15 · Q4 3:218Go for itnot graded3.77–2.80converted
4th & 4 · opp 7 · Q4 2:218Go for itnot graded3.35–2.92stopped
4th & 7 · own 42 · Q1 7:187PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.78-0.56–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 7 · Q2 8:247Field goalField goal1.76–2.92✓good
4th & 15 · opp 17 · Q3 8:127Field goalField goal1.42–2.75✓good
4th & 5 · own 49 · Q4 14:237PuntGo for it-0.06-0.35–−0.29punted
4th & 1 · opp 24 · Q4 0:387Go for itnot graded3.10–2.46converted
4th & 16 · own 49 · Q1 10:066PuntPunt-0.93-0.35–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 37 · Q1 6:356Field goalField goal0.82-0.121.18✓good
4th & 10 · opp 45 · Q2 9:556PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.24-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 2 · own 33 · Q2 0:546Puntnot graded-0.23-0.92–punted
4th & 12 · opp 29 · Q3 8:346Field goalField goal0.65–2.11✓missed
4th & 19 · own 33 · Q3 3:326Puntnot graded-2.06-0.92–punted
4th & 18 · opp 46 · Q4 12:586Puntnot graded-0.69-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 4 · opp 39 · Q4 7:506Go for itnot graded0.89-0.140.88converted
4th & 2 · own 26 · Q1 9:345PuntGo for it-0.67-1.27–−0.60punted
4th & 15 · own 13 · Q1 3:245PuntPunt-3.29-2.07–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 31 · Q2 13:315Field goalField goal0.65-0.111.92✓good
4th & 21 · opp 32 · Q2 2:005Field goalField goal0.12-0.111.82✓good
4th & 3 · opp 25 · Q3 9:005Field goalField goal2.07–2.40✓good
4th & 4 · opp 30 · Q3 3:065Field goalField goal1.48-0.112.02✓good
4th & 10 · opp 22 · Q4 6:595Field goalField goal1.24–2.57✓good
4th & 10 · 50 · Q4 0:545Go for itnot graded-0.56-0.32–stopped
4th & 13 · own 32 · Q1 10:134PuntPunt-1.88-0.96–✓punted
4th & 19 · own 37 · Q1 5:114PuntPunt-1.80-0.75–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 25 · Q1 1:124PuntPunt-1.57-1.32–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 46 · Q2 11:514PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.23-0.24-0.34−0.01punted
4th & 3 · own 44 · Q2 2:004PuntGo for it0.09-0.49–−0.58punted
4th & 7 · opp 17 · Q3 1:224Field goalnot graded1.87–2.75good
4th & 8 · opp 48 · Q4 4:094Puntnot graded-0.26-0.28–punted
4th & 17 · own 40 · Q4 1:494Puntnot graded-1.54-0.63–punted
4th & 10 · own 48 · Q1 12:363PuntPunt-0.68-0.37–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 28 · Q1 7:373PuntGo for it-0.54-1.16–−0.62punted
4th & 9 · own 22 · Q2 10:283PuntPunt-2.27-1.49–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 1:513Go for itnot graded3.29–2.95stopped
4th & 8 · opp 39 · Q2 0:573Field goalnot graded0.30-0.140.88good
4th & 9 · own 16 · Q3 4:213PuntPunt-2.69-1.87–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 10 · Q1 6:242PuntPunt-3.35-2.29–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 48 · Q2 7:162PuntPunt-0.56-0.28–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 1:162Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95stopped
4th & 1 · opp 49 · Q2 0:012Go for itnot graded1.46-0.30–stopped
4th & 10 · opp 15 · Q3 6:522Field goalField goal1.95–2.80✓good
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q4 1:152Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95touchdown
4th & 11 · own 49 · Q1 11:491PuntPunt-0.69-0.35–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 30 · Q1 4:421PuntGo for it0.17-1.06–−1.23punted
4th & 5 · own 31 · Q2 14:551PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.18-1.01–✓punted
4th & 5 · 50 · Q2 4:451PuntGo for it0.01-0.32–−0.33punted
4th & 4 · own 48 · Q3 9:371PuntGo for it0.08-0.37–−0.45punted
4th & 9 · opp 12 · Q3 3:161Field goalField goal2.20–2.86✓good
4th & 1 · opp 45 · Q4 11:381Go for itGo for it1.71-0.22-0.16✓touchdown
4th & 6 · opp 8 · Q4 5:531Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.83–2.91✓good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on SEA in Week 3, worth +10 points of win probability to WAS.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped WAS · Wk 3 Q4 10:35 · (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (29-J.Jobe, 30-A.Finley). PENALTY on SEA-30-A.Finley,…+9.6 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceSEA → helped NE · Wk 1 Q2 9:22 · 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 1-A.Brown (29-J.Jobe). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards,…+8.2 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped SF · Wk 5 Q3 14:18 · 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SF 44. 0-R.Green to SF 46 for 2 yards…+8.0 WP
  4. 4Roughing the KickerSEA → helped NE · Wk 1 Q3 13:26 · 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to SEA 14, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on SEA-44-C.Surratt, Roughing…+7.9 WP
  5. 5Illegal FormationSEA → helped WAS · Wk 3 Q4 4:24 · (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 22-R.Shaheed (29-R.Douglas, 39-J.Reaves) [56-K.Medrano]. ** Injury Update:…+7.1 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Unnecessary Roughness1114836.4
Offensive Holding1010031.6
Defensive Pass Interference710221.5
False Start146920.9
Illegal Formation2108.8
Roughing the Kicker1157.9
Face Mask2307.8
Delay of Game5256.8

Flags drawn

  1. 1Intentional GroundingSF → helped SEA · Wk 5 Q4 12:31 · 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle [3-N.Emmanwori]. PENALTY on SF-13-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at…+10.3 WP
  2. 2Ineligible Downfield PassNE → helped SEA · Wk 1 Q4 3:03 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at…+8.6 WP
  3. 3DisqualificationSF → helped SEA · Wk 5 Q2 6:30 · 14-S.Darnold scrambles right end pushed ob at SF 47 for 5 yards (57-D.Greenlaw). PENALTY on SF-57-D.Greenlaw, Disqualification,…+7.2 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessLAC → helped SEA · Wk 4 Q4 1:03 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (7-U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (7-U.Nwosu) [7-U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by…+7.0 WP
  5. 5Defensive HoldingARI → helped SEA · Wk 9 Q1 8:04 · (Shotgun) 2-D.Lock scrambles right end ran ob at SEA 40 for 14 yards (1-Ma.Wilson). PENALTY on ARI-16-M.Melton, Defensive…+6.7 WP

Garbage Time Tax

20.9% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 12th most of 32

Bottom lineEmanuel Wilson: 181 of 403 yards (45%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Sam DarnoldSEA · passing · 1,478 yds19%
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA · receiving · 1,036 yds16%
Emanuel WilsonSEA · rushing · 403 yds45%

Our picks on the Seahawks

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Seahawks 73% at home against cardinals. 3-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Seahawks 57% at home against bears. 34-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Seahawks 37% at home against chiefs. 3-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Seahawks 59% at broncos. 14-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Seahawks 44% at home against 49ers. 32-29 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Seahawks 82% at home against chargers. 23-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Seahawks 71% at commanders. 31-33 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Seahawks 38% at cardinals. 31-7 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Seattle Seahawks verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/seahawks/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.