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The Verdict2026 · NFC South · through Week 9

Saints logoNew Orleans SaintsThe Verdict

Saints are 3-5; the play says 2.7 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Kellen Moore kicked away 5 of 9 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 13th of 32+0.33-5 real · 2.7 deserved · 3.3 Pythagorean
Luck points · 32nd of 32−13.6fumble bounces −8.6 · opponents' kicks −5.0
Chicken Index · 14th of 3256%Kellen Moore · 4.0 expected points lost on 38 graded calls
Flags net · 13th of 32+0.8 WP49 flags for 330 yards against · 58 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Browns logoBrowns33% success · −0.11 EPA/play
2223
Saints logoSaints44% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Saints earned it: the snaps said Saints by 3.0, a deserved win probability of 71%.

Deserved marginNO by 3.0
Real marginNO by 1
Luck pts CLE−0.4
Luck pts NO+0.4

The swingOT 1:00 · CLE · −47 pts of win probability. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-S.Sanders pass to 12-D.Boston is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Penalty on CLE-71-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, declined.

Week 7EarnedGame file →
Steelers logoSteelers46% success · +0.12 EPA/play
1610
Saints logoSaints42% success · +0.02 EPA/play

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 4.2, a deserved win probability of 78%.

Deserved marginPIT by 4.2
Real marginPIT by 6
Luck pts PIT+1.9
Luck pts NO−1.0

The swingQ2 8:34 · PIT · +21 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep left to 4-D.Metcalf to NO 4 for 51 yards (7-J.Sanker).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−8.6 ptsKept 4 of 12 own fumbles; won 3 of 6 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−5.0 ptsOpponents made 17 of 18 field goals against an expected 15.7, and 19 of 19 extra points.
Own kicking−5.2 ptsMade 11 of 16 field goals against 12.7 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.09724th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them4-3Our pregame model in Saints games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Kellen Moore · 38 graded fourth downs · went for it 15×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.1 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NO · 4th & 2Kellen Moore chose Punt at own 43, Wk 1 Q1 10:15, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.91 EP
  2. 2NO · 4th & 3Kellen Moore chose Field goal at opp 5, Wk 2 Q2 3:49, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−0.83 EP
  3. 3NO · 4th & 3Kellen Moore chose Field goal at opp 8, Wk 4 Q3 7:40, down 17. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−0.77 EP
  4. 4NO · 4th & 4Kellen Moore chose Field goal at opp 10, Wk 1 Q4 7:45, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.37 EP
  5. 5NO · 4th & 4Kellen Moore chose Punt at own 42, Wk 9 Q3 13:29, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.26 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1NO · 4th & 1Kellen Moore chose Go for it at opp 44, Wk 2 Q4 5:41, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2NO · 4th & 2Kellen Moore chose Go for it at opp 44, Wk 7 Q2 4:41, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3NO · 4th & 2Kellen Moore chose Go for it at opp 41, Wk 5 Q2 13:01, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4NO · 4th & 1Kellen Moore chose Go for it at opp 27, Wk 5 Q2 11:13, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 10 · opp 12 · Q1 7:249Field goalField goal2.08–2.86✓good
4th & 14 · opp 34 · Q1 0:139Field goalField goal0.22-0.111.58✓missed
4th & 9 · own 45 · Q2 0:279Puntnot graded-0.79-0.46–punted
4th & 4 · own 42 · Q3 13:299PuntGo for it-0.29-0.56–−0.26punted
4th & 8 · opp 9 · Q3 2:299Field goalField goal2.45–2.90✓good
4th & 18 · own 29 · Q4 15:009PuntPunt-2.29-1.11–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 30 · Q4 5:449Field goalField goal0.88-0.112.02✓good
4th & 3 · own 37 · Q4 4:239Puntnot graded-0.35-0.75–punted
4th & 15 · opp 48 · Q1 5:287PuntPunt-0.71-0.28–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 20 · Q2 10:207Field goalField goal1.25–2.65✓good
4th & 2 · opp 44 · Q2 4:417Go for itGo for it1.20-0.200.02✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 1:487Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95touchdown
4th & 7 · opp 34 · Q4 9:327Field goalField goal0.73-0.111.58✓missed
4th & 18 · own 32 · Q4 6:027PuntPunt-2.09-0.96–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 44 · Q1 12:086PuntGo for it (toss-up)0.22-0.200.02−0.43punted
4th & 9 · own 33 · Q1 2:076PuntPunt-1.55-0.92–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 39 · Q2 14:206PuntPunt-1.38-0.67–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 37 · Q2 6:566Field goalField goal0.26-0.121.18✓missed
4th & 10 · opp 40 · Q2 1:236Field goalnot graded0.07-0.150.71good
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 0:056Go for itnot graded3.29–2.95touchdown
4th & 4 · opp 32 · Q3 1:176Field goalnot graded1.34-0.111.82good
4th & 1 · own 34 · Q4 12:486Puntnot graded0.41-0.87–punted
4th & 10 · opp 49 · Q4 6:036Puntnot graded-0.49-0.30–punted
4th & 5 · opp 44 · Q4 4:136Puntnot graded0.38-0.200.02punted
4th & 3 · own 32 · Q4 1:066Puntnot graded-0.66-0.96–punted
4th & 9 · own 28 · Q1 7:485PuntPunt-1.87-1.16–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 41 · Q2 13:015Go for itGo for it1.39-0.160.55✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 27 · Q2 11:135Go for itGo for it2.89–2.27✓converted
4th & 5 · own 26 · Q2 4:575PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.51-1.27–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 15 · Q2 1:565Puntnot graded-2.66-1.93–punted
4th & 24 · own 13 · Q4 13:045PuntPunt-3.57-2.07–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 44 · Q4 5:055Go for itnot graded0.10-0.200.02stopped
4th & 18 · own 19 · Q1 12:504PuntPunt-2.97-1.67–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 34 · Q1 5:084Field goalField goal0.86-0.111.58✓missed
4th & 6 · own 33 · Q2 8:004PuntPunt-1.21-0.92–✓punted
4th & 16 · opp 47 · Q2 0:494Puntnot graded-0.68-0.26-0.53punted
4th & 3 · opp 8 · Q3 7:404Field goalGo for it3.67–2.91−0.77good
4th & 10 · opp 43 · Q3 1:334Go for itnot graded-0.12-0.190.20converted
4th & 1 · opp 16 · Q4 13:594Go for itnot graded3.69–2.78converted
4th & 6 · own 30 · Q4 8:334Go for itnot graded-1.41-1.06–stopped
4th & 7 · 50 · Q4 3:024Go for itnot graded-0.28-0.32–converted
4th & 8 · own 29 · Q1 14:143PuntPunt-1.71-1.11–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 19 · Q2 9:393PuntPunt-2.76-1.67–✓punted
4th & 15 · opp 48 · Q3 2:073PuntPunt-0.71-0.28–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 20 · Q4 2:213Go for itnot graded3.39–2.65stopped
4th & 9 · own 36 · Q1 9:552PuntPunt-1.36-0.79–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 43 · Q2 13:382PuntGo for it (toss-up)0.29-0.190.20−0.47punted
4th & 3 · opp 5 · Q2 3:492Field goalGo for it3.76–2.93−0.83good
4th & 4 · opp 33 · Q3 11:052Field goalField goal1.28-0.111.70✓good
4th & 27 · own 9 · Q3 1:502PuntPunt-3.94-2.36–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 44 · Q4 5:412Go for itGo for it1.77-0.200.02✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q4 1:322Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95touchdown
4th & 2 · own 43 · Q1 10:151PuntGo for it0.39-0.52–−0.91punted
4th & 7 · own 30 · Q1 2:431PuntPunt-1.54-1.06–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 38 · Q2 12:401PuntPunt-1.31-0.71–✓punted
4th & 23 · own 13 · Q2 7:571PuntPunt-3.55-2.07–✓punted
4th & 14 · 50 · Q2 0:261Puntnot graded-0.79-0.32–punted
4th & 4 · opp 10 · Q4 7:451Field goalGo for it3.25–2.89−0.37good
4th & 12 · own 23 · Q4 1:551Go for itnot graded-2.42-1.43–converted
4th & 3 · own 27 · OT 3:131Go for itnot graded-0.97-1.21–converted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Offensive Holding on NO in Week 9, worth +6 points of win probability to CLE.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Offensive HoldingNO → helped CLE · Wk 9 OT 6:08 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked ob at CLE 22 for -1 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). PENALTY on NO-76-D.Edwards, Offensive Holding, 10…+6.4 WP
  2. 2Defensive HoldingNO → helped ATL · Wk 4 Q1 0:56 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 4-J.Dotson (97-K.Boyd). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Defensive Holding, 4…+5.2 WP
  3. 3Illegal ContactNO → helped CLE · Wk 9 Q2 12:53 · (Shotgun) 2-S.Sanders pass short middle to 44-H.Fannin to NO 28 for 8 yards (55-K.Elliss). PENALTY on NO-1-K.McKinstry, Illegal…+4.5 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingNO → helped NYG · Wk 6 Q1 4:23 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short left to 43-C.Donaldson to NO 39 for 2 yards (5-K.Thibodeaux). PENALTY on NO-72-A.Richards,…+4.3 WP
  5. 5Intentional GroundingNO → helped DET · Wk 1 Q2 8:03 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on NO-6-T.Shough, Intentional Grounding, 13 yards, enforced at NO 26.+4.0 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding88017.4
False Start115516.9
Defensive Holding3147.5
Roughing the Passer2176.9
Delay of Game5256.8
Kickoff Short of Landing Zone205.4
Defensive Offside4165.3
Illegal Contact2104.5

Flags drawn

  1. 1Roughing the PasserBAL → helped NO · Wk 2 Q4 2:03 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass short right to 83-J.Johnson to BAL 5 for 25 yards (21-J.Hawkins). PENALTY on BAL-91-T.Hendrickson,…+18.2 WP
  2. 2Illegal ContactCLE → helped NO · Wk 9 Q4 7:57 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CLE 37 for 0 yards (51-M.Hall). PENALTY on CLE-7-T.Campbell, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced…+8.7 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceDET → helped NO · Wk 1 Q3 0:40 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Vele. PENALTY on DET-23-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards,…+6.0 WP
  4. 4Offensive Pass InterferencePIT → helped NO · Wk 7 Q2 9:26 · 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 30-J.Warren. PENALTY on PIT-4-D.Metcalf, Offensive Pass Interference, 10 yards,…+4.0 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingBAL → helped NO · Wk 2 Q3 8:12 · 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end ran ob at NO 28 for 12 yards (33-A.Jennings). PENALTY on BAL-17-C.Moore, Offensive Holding, 10…+3.8 WP

Garbage Time Tax

16.6% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 24th most of 32

Bottom lineChris Olave: 201 of 734 yards (27%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Tyler ShoughNO · passing · 1,986 yds19%
Chris OlaveNO · receiving · 734 yds27%
Devaughn VeleNO · receiving · 365 yds18%
Juwan JohnsonNO · receiving · 289 yds10%

Our picks on the Saints

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Saints 51% at home against browns. 22-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 7We gave the Saints 38% at home against steelers. 16-10 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Saints 34% at giants. 34-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Saints 31% at home against vikings. 23-13 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Saints 60% at home against falcons. 45-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Saints 43% at home against raiders. 35-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Saints 27% at ravens. 24-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "New Orleans Saints verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/saints/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.