49ers 32, Seahawks 29: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · Lumen FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
SF	7	14	0	11	32
SEA	7	6	13	3	29

Home · 5-4SeattleSeahawks29

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 3:31 AM ET

The San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks 32-29 on Sun, Oct 11 at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: 49ers 7-1, Seahawks 5-4. M.Evans (SF) led all players with +10.4 EPA on 11 targets.

Who won 49ers vs Seahawks?

The San Francisco 49ers won 32-29. By quarter: SF 7-14-0-11, SEA 7-6-13-3.

Who was the best player in 49ers vs Seahawks?

By expected points added: M.Evans (SF, +10.4 EPA on 11 targets), C.McCaffrey (SF, +4.0 EPA on 11 carries) and J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, +2.2 EPA on 8 targets).

What was the turning point of 49ers vs Seahawks?

The biggest swing in win probability (22 points toward the 49ers) came in Q2 at 0:13: G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (G.Halton). FUMBLES (G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “49ers 32, Seahawks 29: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-sf-at-sea (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

49ers46% success · −0.07 EPA/play

3229

Seahawks30% success · −0.38 EPA/play

SF 99% deserveddeserved 1% SEA

49ers earned it: the snaps said 49ers by 13.7, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginSF by 13.7

Real marginSF by 3

Luck pts SF−2.6

Luck pts SEA+1.4

The swingQ2 0:18 · SEA · −30 pts of win probability. 36-G.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (93-G.Halton). FUMBLES (93-G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-93-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Intentional GroundingSF → helped SEA · Wk 5 Q4 12:31 · 13-B.Purdy pass incomplete short middle [3-N.Emmanwori]. PENALTY on SF-13-B.Purdy, Intentional Grounding, 11 yards, enforced at…+10.3 WP
2Unnecessary RoughnessSEA → helped SF · Wk 5 Q3 14:18 · 14-S.Darnold pass deep left intended for 18-E.Arroyo INTERCEPTED by 0-R.Green at SF 44. 0-R.Green to SF 46 for 2 yards…+8.0 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1SF · 4th & 1Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at own 38, Wk 5 Q1 14:04, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.36 EP
2SEA · 4th & 2Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 26, Wk 5 Q1 9:34, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.60 EP
3SF · 4th & 5Kyle Shanahan chose Punt at midfield, Wk 5 Q1 0:46, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.33 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA137 plays, one strand4 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewLand Clark13 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: SEA by 3 · Snaps: SF by 13.749ers covered; the snaps agree

32@29

Week 5Changes the winner

If the Seahawks had converted that fourth-and-10

Seahawks after the play5%what really happened

Q4 0:54 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 10-C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (6-M.Mustapha). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SEA ▲SF ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+22%Q2 0:13 · for SFG.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (G.Halton). FUMBLES (G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
+16%Q4 1:51 · for SEA(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba to 50 for 35 yards (J.Dugger).
+15%Q4 1:56 · for SFE.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.
+15%Q3 5:06 · for SEA(Shotgun) D.Samuel left end to SF 35 for no gain (D.Thomas). FUMBLES (D.Thomas), RECOVERED by SEA-J.Jobe at SF 36. SF-D.Samuel was injured during the play. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
+14%Q4 12:26 · for SF(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass deep right to M.Evans pushed ob at SEA 9 for 28 yards (J.Jobe).

Every drive, on the field

SEA attacks →← SF attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 9y · 1:02
Q1 13:58INT3p · 0y · 1:23
Q1 12:35TD4p · 18y · 1:23
Q1 11:12PUNT3p · 8y · 1:49
Q1 9:23TD6p · 24y · 3:40
Q1 5:43PUNT3p · 4y · 1:03
Q1 4:40PUNT3p · -5y · 1:23
Q1 3:17PUNT3p · 5y · 2:38
Q1 0:39FG7p · 61y · 2:12
Q2 13:27PUNT8p · 21y · 4:56
Q2 8:31FUM1p · 2y · 0:09
Q2 8:22TD1p · 11y · 0:05
Q2 8:17FG11p · 35y · 6:21
Q2 1:56PUNT5p · 19y · 1:38
Q2 0:18FUM1p · -4y · 0:05
Q2 0:13HALF1p · -7y · 0:13
Q3 15:00INT2p · 2y · 0:49
Q3 14:11MISS4p · 5y · 1:00
Q3 13:11FG8p · 33y · 4:15
Q3 8:56INT3p · 3y · 1:40
Q3 7:16TD3p · 23y · 1:24
Q3 5:52FUM2p · 13y · 0:51
Q3 5:01FG4p · 6y · 1:59
Q3 3:02TD12p · 74y · 7:00
Q4 11:02FG7p · 33y · 4:07
Q4 6:55FG8p · 43y · 4:59
Q4 1:56DOWNS5p · 44y · 1:09
Q4 0:47END2p · -2y · 0:47

49ers12 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 44avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Seahawks14 drives8scoring drives (3 TD)57%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position2three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:12TouchdownB.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.7–0
Q1
5:43TouchdownE.Wilson right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.7–7
Q2
13:27Field goal J.Myers 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.7–10
Q2
8:17Touchdown(Shotgun) C.McCaffrey left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.14–10
Q2
1:56Field goalJ.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.14–13
Q2
0:13TouchdownG.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (G.Halton). FUMBLES (G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN. E.Pineiro extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.21–13
Q3
8:56Field goalJ.Myers 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.21–16
Q3
5:52Touchdown(Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short right to J.Smith-Njigba for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.21–23
Q3
3:02Field goalJ.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.21–26
Q4
11:02Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to B.Cooks for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Purdy pass to M.Evans is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.29–26
Q4
6:55Field goalJ.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.29–29
Q4
1:56Field goalE.Pineiro 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman.32–29

Team stats

SFvsSEA

269Total yards251

175Passing yards162

94Rushing yards89

4.8Yards per play4.2

14First downs14

4-12 · 33%Third down3-12 · 25%

0-0Fourth down0-1

3-3Red zone TDs2-3

19/29Comp / att18/29

3.9Yards per carry3.4

3Turnovers4

3 (−14 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−33 yds)

8 for 70Penalties5 for 46

29:02Possession30:58

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.118-0.425

Dropback EPA-0.102-0.300

Rush EPA-0.145-0.601

Success rate45%30%

Explosive plays64

Plays5560

Who moved the needle

M.EvansTargets: 11+10.4

C.McCaffreyCarries: 11+4.0

J.Smith-NjigbaTargets: 8+2.2

C.KuppTargets: 3+0.9

D.SamuelTargets: 3+0.7

B.PurdyCarries: 3+0.5

Cost their side the most

S.DarnoldDropbacks: 35-10.5

E.WilsonCarries: 20-8.3

G.HolaniCarries: 4-7.8

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Brock PurdyQB	19/29	189	6.5	2	1	3-14	64.1	92.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian McCaffreyRB	11	68	6.2	1	13
Kaelon BlackRB	6	16	2.7	0	11
Brock PurdyQB	5	6	1.2	0	4
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	2	4	2.0	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mike EvansWR	7	10	113	16.1	1	28
George KittleTE	5	6	24	4.8	0	13
Deebo Samuel Sr.WR	2	3	21	10.5	0	14
Christian McCaffreyRB	3	3	15	5.0	0	8
Jacob CowingWR	1	2	9	9.0	0	9
Brandin CooksWR	1	2	7	7.0	1	7
Luke FarrellTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Fred WarnerLB	10	5	0	0	0	1
Jaden DuggerLB	9	7	1	1	0	1
Ji'Ayir BrownS	7	6	0	0	1	0
Malik MustaphaS	7	5	0	0	1	0
Keion WhiteDE	3	3	1	2	0	1
Gracen HaltonDT	3	3	1	2	0	1
Sebastian ValdezDT	3	2	1	1	0	1
Dre GreenlawLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Osa OdighizuwaDT	2	2	1	1	0	1
Deommodore LenoirCB	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Eddy PineiroPK	1/2	50.0	44	3/3	6

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Sam DarnoldQB	18/29	195	6.7	1	2	5-33	32.3	64.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Emanuel WilsonRB	20	61	3.1	1	8
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	1	16	16.0	0	16
George HolaniRB	4	7	1.8	0	9
Sam DarnoldQB	1	5	5.0	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	5	8	102	20.4	1	38
George HolaniRB	4	4	24	6.0	0	9
Rashid ShaheedWR	2	4	23	11.5	0	22
AJ BarnerTE	3	5	20	6.7	0	8
Cooper KuppWR	2	3	15	7.5	0	9
Emanuel WilsonRB	2	2	11	5.5	0	9
Elijah ArroyoTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Ernest Jones IVLB	9	5	1	1	1	1
Byron Murphy IIDT	6	5	2	3	0	3
Julian LoveS	6	3	0	0	1	0
Drake ThomasLB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Josh JobeCB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Uchenna NwosuLB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Devon WitherspoonCB	4	3	0	1	1	0
Nick EmmanworiS	4	3	0	0	0	2
Ty OkadaS	4	2	0	1	0	0
Avery SmithCB	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason MyersPK	5/5	100.0	50	2/2	17

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

149ers red-zone offense vs Seahawks red-zone defense
The 49ers' red-zone offense ranks 1st in red-zone touchdown rate (86%, 14 trips) against a Seahawks red-zone defense ranked 27th (75% allowed, 8 trips faced).
1stSF offense26 spots apart27thSEA defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Seahawks pass protection vs 49ers pass rush
The Seahawks' pass protection ranks 12th in sack rate (4.7% sacked, 127 dropbacks) against a 49ers pass rush ranked 26th (3.9% of dropbacks, 154 dropbacks faced).
12thSEA offense14 spots apart26thSF defense
3Seahawks run defense vs 49ers run game
The Seahawks' run defense ranks 2nd in EPA per rush (-0.23 allowed, 96 rushes faced) and faces a 49ers run game ranked 15th (-0.05, 100 rushes).
15thSF offense13 spots apart2ndSEA defense

When the 49ers have the ballEdge SEA · +13 ranks

SF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSEA pass defense

1st+0.57122 dropbacks

-0.08 allowed149 dropbacks faced4th

SF run gameEPA per rushSEA run defense

15th-0.05100 rushes

SEA +13

-0.23 allowed96 rushes faced2nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Seahawks have the ballEdge SF · +9 ranks

SEA dropback offenseEPA per dropbackSF pass defense

10th+0.19127 dropbacks

+0.07 allowed154 dropbacks faced17th

SEA run gameEPA per rushSF run defense

28th-0.19107 rushes

SF +9

-0.06 allowed103 rushes faced19th

Third downNo big edge

SF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSEA third-down defense

1st57.5%40 third downs

33.9% allowed56 third downs faced6th

SEA third-down offensethird-down conversion rateSF third-down defense

28th33.3%45 third downs

44.1% allowed59 third downs faced23rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge SF · +26 ranks

SF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSEA red-zone defense

1st86%14 trips

SF +26

75% allowed8 trips faced27th

SEA red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateSF red-zone defense

14th60%15 trips

SF +10

45% allowed11 trips faced4th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge SF · +9 ranks

SF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSEA defense against big plays

3rd14.0%222 plays

5.7% allowed245 plays faced3rd

SEA big-play offenseexplosive-play rateSF defense against big plays

10th10.3%234 plays

SF +9

3.5% allowed257 plays faced1st

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge SEA · +14 ranks

SF pass protectionsack rateSEA pass rush

1st0.0% sacked122 dropbacks

SF +9

7.4% of dropbacks149 dropbacks faced10th

SEA pass protectionsack rateSF pass rush

12th4.7% sacked127 dropbacks

SEA +14

3.9% of dropbacks154 dropbacks faced26th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge SEA · +9 ranks

SF ball securityturnovers per gameSEA takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game4 games

1.8 takeaways a game4 games3rd

SEA ball securityturnovers per gameSF takeaway defense

18th1.3 giveaways a game4 games

SEA +9

0.5 takeaways a game4 games27th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: SF 4 games, 222 offensive and 257 defensive plays · SEA 4 games, 234 offensive and 245 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Kyle JuszczykFB→ Kaelon Black

Keenan AllenWR→ Jacob Cowing

DeForest BucknerRDT→ Gracen Halton

Nick BosaRDE→ Romello Height

Dre GreenlawWLB→ Sebastian Valdez

Drew LockQB→ Sam Darnold

Zach CharbonnetRB→ Emanuel Wilson

Brady RussellFB→ George Holani

Josh JonesLT→ Charles Cross

Anthony BradfordRG→ Christian Haynes

Away49ers4 questionable · 5 changes