Raiders 38, Jets 33: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · MetLife StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
LV	7	7	14	10	38
NYJ	6	17	7	3	33

Home · 2-7New YorkJets33

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:09 PM ET

The Las Vegas Raiders beat the New York Jets 38-33 on Sun, Nov 1 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Raiders 4-5, Jets 2-7. K.Cousins (LV) led all players with +16.4 EPA on 27 dropbacks.

Who won Raiders vs Jets?

The Las Vegas Raiders won 38-33. By quarter: LV 7-7-14-10, NYJ 6-17-7-3.

Who was the best player in Raiders vs Jets?

By expected points added: K.Cousins (LV, +16.4 EPA on 27 dropbacks), A.Mitchell (NYJ, +13.0 EPA on 9 targets) and G.Smith (NYJ, +11.8 EPA on 35 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Raiders vs Jets?

The biggest swing in win probability (17 points toward the Jets) came in Q4 at 6:11: (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep left to A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (T.Stukes).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Raiders 38, Jets 33: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-lv-at-nyj (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8RobbedGame file →

Raiders50% success · +0.21 EPA/play

3833

Jets51% success · +0.25 EPA/play

LV 29% deserveddeserved 71% NYJ

Jets played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Jets lost.

Deserved marginNYJ by 3.1

Real marginLV by 5

Luck pts LV−0.8

Luck pts NYJ−1.2

The swingQ4 6:11 · NYJ · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep left to 15-A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (31-T.Stukes).

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped NYJ · Wk 8 Q4 0:20 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 5-G.Wilson to 50 for 15 yards (11-J.Chinn). PENALTY on LV-11-J.Chinn, Unnecessary…+10.9 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceNYJ → helped LV · Wk 8 Q3 8:10 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep middle to 1-T.Tucker. PENALTY on NYJ-2-J.Brownlee, Defensive Pass Interference, 11…+4.9 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NYJ · 4th & 3Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 42, Wk 8 Q3 1:40, up 2. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.52 EP
2NYJ · 4th & 2Aaron Glenn chose Field goal at opp 17, Wk 8 Q1 2:17, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.26 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA136 plays, one strand5 lead changes · 13 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewJohn Hussey11 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: NYJ by 1.5 · Snaps: NYJ by 3.1Raiders covered; the snaps say Jets should have

38@33

Week 8

If the 53-yard kick had missed

Jets after the play10%what really happened

Q4 0:31 14-M.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-A.Ward, Holder-6-A.Cole.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NYJ ▲LV ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+17%Q4 6:11 · for NYJ(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep left to A.Mitchell to LV 13 for 47 yards (T.Stukes).
+17%Q2 10:44 · for LVA.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
+16%Q4 0:27 · for LVM.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.
+15%Q4 15:00 · for LV(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to A.Jeanty to NYJ 13 for 45 yards (J.Sherwood; M.Fitzpatrick).
+13%Q2 6:18 · for NYJ(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to A.Mitchell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.

Every drive, on the field

NYJ attacks →← LV attacks

Q1 15:00FG7p · 62y · 2:10
Q1 12:50TD10p · 60y · 5:27
Q1 7:23FG12p · 48y · 5:10
Q1 2:13PUNT3p · -1y · 2:26
Q2 14:47TD8p · 70y · 3:51
Q2 10:56TD0p · 0y · 0:12
Q2 10:44TD8p · 65y · 4:26
Q2 6:18DOWNS5p · 24y · 2:29
Q2 3:49FG9p · 33y · 3:40
Q2 0:09HALF1p · -1y · 0:09
Q3 15:00TD10p · 65y · 5:01
Q3 9:59TD3p · 58y · 1:39
Q3 8:20TD10p · 65y · 4:06
Q3 4:14PUNT3p · 7y · 2:41
Q3 1:33TD9p · 84y · 5:00
Q4 11:33PUNT3p · 1y · 1:27
Q4 10:06PUNT3p · 6y · 0:57
Q4 9:09FG9p · 68y · 4:38
Q4 4:31FG9p · 30y · 4:04
Q4 0:27INT3p · 30y · 0:20
Q4 0:07END1p · -1y · 0:07

Raiders9 drives6scoring drives (5 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 39avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Jets10 drives7scoring drives (3 TD)70%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
12:50Field goalJ.Sanders 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.0–3
Q1
7:23Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short left to B.Bowers for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on NYJ-J.Brownlee, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.7–3
Q1
2:13Field goalJ.Sanders 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.7–6
Q2
10:56Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep middle to I.Williams for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on LV-J.McCoy, Defensive Holding, declined. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.7–13
Q2
10:44TouchdownA.McNamara kicks 60 yards from NYJ 35 to LV 5. D.Laube for 95 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.14–13
Q2
6:18Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to A.Mitchell for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.14–20
Q2
0:09Field goalJ.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.14–23
Q3
9:59TouchdownK.Cousins pass short middle to B.Bowers for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.21–23
Q3
8:20Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Allen left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.21–30
Q3
4:14TouchdownC.Rogers reported in as eligible. K.Cousins up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on NYJ-K.Enagbare, Defensive Offside, declined. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.28–30
Q4
11:33Touchdown(Shotgun) K.Cousins pass short right to J.Nailor for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [N.Lynn]. M.Gay extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.35–30
Q4
4:31Field goalJ.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.35–33
Q4
0:27Field goalM.Gay 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Ward, Holder-A.Cole.38–33

Team stats

LVvsNYJ

333Total yards439

238Passing yards273

95Rushing yards166

5.6Yards per play7.2

22First downs26

7-11 · 64%Third down4-11 · 36%

0-1Fourth down1-1

4-4Red zone TDs2-6

19/26Comp / att20/32

2.9Yards per carry6.1

0Turnovers1

1 (−9 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−17 yds)

5 for 37Penalties6 for 32

29:58Possession30:02

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.212+0.250

Dropback EPA+0.607+0.338

Rush EPA-0.133+0.130

Success rate50%51%

Explosive plays410

Plays5861

Who moved the needle

K.CousinsDropbacks: 27+16.4

A.MitchellTargets: 9+13.0

G.SmithDropbacks: 35+11.8

B.BowersTargets: 10+9.2

J.NailorTargets: 4+6.3

B.AllenCarries: 21+4.6

Cost their side the most

M.WashingtonCarries: 25-2.3

I.DavisCarries: 5-1.3

M.TaylorTargets: 5-1.2

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kirk CousinsQB	19/26	247	9.5	3	0	1-9	87.9	141.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mike Washington Jr.RB	25	83	3.3	0	15
Ashton JeantyRB	2	9	4.5	0	8
Kirk CousinsQB	5	3	0.6	1	3
Connor HeywardFB	1	0	0.0	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Brock BowersTE	7	10	92	13.1	2	27
Ashton JeantyRB	3	4	64	21.3	0	45
Michael MayerTE	5	6	53	10.6	0	19
Jalen NailorWR	4	4	38	9.5	1	12
Tre TuckerWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Nakobe DeanLB	12	2	0	1	0	0
Jeremy ChinnS	10	4	0	0	1	0
Quay WalkerLB	9	2	0	1	0	0
Eric StokesCB	8	7	0	1	2	0
Treydan StukesS	8	3	0	0	1	0
Maxx CrosbyDE	4	2	1	1	0	2
Tommy EichenbergLB	2	2	0	0	1	0
Thomas Booker IVDT	2	1	0	0	0	0
Kwity PayeDE	2	0	0	0	0	0
Tim Keenan IIIDT	1	1	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Matt GayPK	1/1	100.0	53	5/5	8

New York Jets

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Geno SmithQB	20/32	290	9.1	2	1	2-17	70.6	99.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Braelon AllenRB	21	147	7.0	1	24
Isaiah DavisRB	5	15	3.0	0	5
Geno SmithQB	1	4	4.0	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Adonai MitchellWR	7	9	142	20.3	1	47
Garrett WilsonWR	6	12	83	13.8	0	31
Kenyon SadiqTE	1	2	22	22.0	0	22
Mason TaylorTE	3	5	19	6.3	0	9
Isaiah WilliamsWR	1	1	18	18.0	1	18
Braelon AllenRB	2	2	6	3.0	0	11

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jamien SherwoodLB	14	5	0	0	0	0
Dane BeltonS	12	8	0	1	1	0
Minkah FitzpatrickS	9	2	0	0	1	1
Demario DavisLB	7	1	0	0	0	0
Azareye'h ThomasCB	5	0	0	0	1	0
Darrell Jackson Jr.DT	4	2	0	1	0	0
Kingsley EnagbareLB	4	1	0	0	0	1
Brandon StephensCB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Harrison PhillipsDT	3	1	0	0	0	0
Will McDonald IVDE	2	1	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason SandersPK	4/4	100.0	39	3/3	15

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jets run defense vs Raiders run game
The Jets' run defense ranks 5th in EPA per rush (-0.14 allowed, 191 rushes faced) and faces a Raiders run game ranked 31st (-0.23, 160 rushes).
31stLV offense26 spots apart5thNYJ defense
2Raiders pass rush vs Jets pass protection
The Raiders' pass rush ranks 15th in sack rate (6.4% of dropbacks, 251 dropbacks faced) and faces a Jets pass protection ranked 29th (8.8% sacked, 240 dropbacks).
29thNYJ offense14 spots apart15thLV defense
3Jets big-play offense vs Raiders defense against big plays
The Jets' big-play offense ranks 11th in explosive-play rate (10.0%, 402 plays) against a Raiders defense against big plays ranked 25th (10.7% allowed, 431 plays faced).
11thNYJ offense14 spots apart25thLV defense

When the Raiders have the ballEdge NYJ · +26 ranks

LV dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNYJ pass defense

13th+0.12284 dropbacks

LV +10

+0.11 allowed250 dropbacks faced23rd

LV run gameEPA per rushNYJ run defense

31st-0.23160 rushes

NYJ +26

-0.14 allowed191 rushes faced5th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Jets have the ballEdge NYJ · +10 ranks

NYJ dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLV pass defense

15th+0.10240 dropbacks

NYJ +10

+0.13 allowed251 dropbacks faced25th

NYJ run gameEPA per rushLV run defense

21st-0.12162 rushes

-0.06 allowed180 rushes faced23rd

Third downNo big edge

LV third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNYJ third-down defense

14th41.1%90 third downs

38.6% allowed88 third downs faced12th

NYJ third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLV third-down defense

20th39.3%89 third downs

45.1% allowed82 third downs faced24th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NYJ · +15 ranks

LV red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNYJ red-zone defense

29th45%31 trips

NYJ +15

58% allowed24 trips faced14th

NYJ red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLV red-zone defense

31st44%18 trips

79% allowed28 trips faced30th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NYJ · +14 ranks

LV big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNYJ defense against big plays

25th7.9%444 plays

NYJ +12

8.8% allowed441 plays faced13th

NYJ big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLV defense against big plays

11th10.0%402 plays

NYJ +14

10.7% allowed431 plays faced25th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LV · +14 ranks

LV pass protectionsack rateNYJ pass rush

4th3.5% sacked284 dropbacks

7.6% of dropbacks250 dropbacks faced5th

NYJ pass protectionsack rateLV pass rush

29th8.8% sacked240 dropbacks

LV +14

6.4% of dropbacks251 dropbacks faced15th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

LV ball securityturnovers per gameNYJ takeaway defense

11th0.9 giveaways a game7 games

1.0 takeaways a game7 games16th

NYJ ball securityturnovers per gameLV takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game7 games

1.7 takeaways a game7 games2nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: LV 7 games, 444 offensive and 431 defensive plays · NYJ 7 games, 402 offensive and 441 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Fernando MendozaQB→ Kirk Cousins

Connor HeywardFB→ Mike Washington Jr.

Folorunso FatukasiLDE→ Malcolm Koonce

Tonka HemingwayRDE→ Thomas Booker IV

Darien PorterRCB→ Jermod McCoy

Breece HallRB→ Braelon Allen

David BaileyLDE→ Will McDonald IV

Trevin WallaceSLB→ Harrison Phillips

AwayRaiders1 questionable · 5 changes