Ravens 10, Bills 36: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Highmark StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
BAL	7	0	3	0	10
BUF	10	6	7	13	36

Home · 7-1BuffaloBills36

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 2:46 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Baltimore Ravens 36-10 on Sun, Nov 1 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Ravens 4-5, Bills 7-1. D.Kincaid (BUF) led all players with +6.4 EPA on 6 targets.

Who won Ravens vs Bills?

The Buffalo Bills won 36-10. By quarter: BAL 7-0-3-0, BUF 10-6-7-13.

Who was the best player in Ravens vs Bills?

By expected points added: D.Kincaid (BUF, +6.4 EPA on 6 targets), K.Shakir (BUF, +5.3 EPA on 6 targets) and J.Allen (BUF, +2.9 EPA on 38 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Ravens vs Bills?

The biggest swing in win probability (10 points toward the Bills) came in Q2 at 14:10: (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BLT 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BLT 20.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Ravens 10, Bills 36: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-bal-at-buf (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Ravens33% success · −0.42 EPA/play

1036

Bills49% success · +0.04 EPA/play

BAL 0% deserveddeserved 100% BUF

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 18.5, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginBUF by 18.5

Real marginBUF by 26

Luck pts BAL−4.2

Luck pts BUF+4.8

The swingQ2 1:21 · BAL · −16 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass short left intended for 4-Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by 21-D.Igbinosun (25-G.Stone) at 50. 21-D.Igbinosun to BAL 33 for 17 yards (79-R.Stanley; 6-J.Lane).

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the PasserBUF → helped BAL · Wk 8 Q3 14:06 · (Shotgun) 12-J.Fagnano pass deep right to 7-R.Bateman to BUF 43 for 22 yards (3-D.Hamlin). PENALTY on BUF-91-E.Oliver, Roughing…+7.9 WP
2Defensive HoldingBAL → helped BUF · Wk 8 Q1 2:33 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Knox (14-K.Hamilton). PENALTY on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Holding,…+5.0 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1BAL · 4th & 4Jesse Minter chose Field goal at opp 8, Wk 8 Q3 11:31, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.41 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA147 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin17 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 3 · Snaps: BUF by 18.5Bills covered; the snaps agree

10@36

Week 8

If the 51-yard kick had missed

Ravens after the play21%what really happened

Q2 0:14 16-T.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-39-T.Doman.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

BUF ▲BAL ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+10%Q2 14:10 · for BUF(Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BLT 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BLT 20.
+10%Q2 1:21 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Fagnano pass short left intended for Z.Flowers INTERCEPTED by D.Igbinosun (G.Stone) at 50. D.Igbinosun to BLT 33 for 17 yards (R.Stanley; J.Lane).
+9%Q1 10:10 · for BUFJ.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.
+9%Q1 4:17 · for BALJ.Allen pass short middle intended for J.Hawes INTERCEPTED by B.Washington at BUF 17. B.Washington to BUF 17 for no gain.
+7%Q2 2:19 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson pushed ob at BLT 39 for 18 yards (K.Jackson).

Every drive, on the field

BUF attacks →← BAL attacks

Q1 15:00TD10p · 60y · 4:50
Q1 10:10PUNT3p · 0y · 1:39
Q1 8:31FG5p · 19y · 2:26
Q1 6:05PUNT3p · 5y · 1:48
Q1 4:17INT1p · 0y · 0:07
Q1 4:10TD2p · 17y · 0:52
Q1 3:18DOWNS9p · 28y · 3:26
Q2 14:52FUM3p · -6y · 0:51
Q2 14:01FG9p · 16y · 4:11
Q2 9:50MISS6p · 19y · 2:13
Q2 7:37PUNT3p · 2y · 1:00
Q2 6:37PUNT3p · 5y · 2:15
Q2 4:22FUM6p · 61y · 2:31
Q2 1:51INT4p · 17y · 0:43
Q2 1:08FG4p · 0y · 0:59
Q2 0:09HALF1p · -1y · 0:09
Q3 15:00FG8p · 61y · 3:32
Q3 11:28TD6p · 77y · 2:29
Q3 8:59PUNT3p · 1y · 1:05
Q3 7:54PUNT8p · 8y · 5:52
Q3 2:02PUNT3p · 4y · 1:05
Q3 0:57TD8p · 65y · 3:39
Q4 12:18DOWNS6p · 18y · 2:47
Q4 9:31TD6p · 43y · 3:33
Q4 5:58FUM6p · 22y · 3:25
Q4 2:33END4p · 11y · 2:33

Ravens12 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)17%drives ending in pointsOWN 36avg starting field position5three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Bills12 drives7scoring drives (4 TD)58%drives ending in pointsOWN 39avg starting field position1three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:10TouchdownJ.Allen up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.0–7
Q1
6:05Field goalT.Bass 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.0–10
Q1
3:18TouchdownD.Henry up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Loop extra point is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.7–10
Q2
9:50Field goalT.Bass 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.7–13
Q2
0:09Field goalT.Bass 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.7–16
Q3
11:28Field goal T.Loop 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-N.Moore, Holder-R.Eckley.10–16
Q3
8:59TouchdownJ.Cook right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.10–23
Q4
12:18Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to D.Moore for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to J.Hawes is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.10–29
Q4
5:58TouchdownJ.Allen pass deep left to D.Kincaid for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.10–36

Team stats

BALvsBUF

144Total yards426

68Passing yards280

76Rushing yards146

2.9Yards per play5.6

10First downs24

3-13 · 23%Third down4-14 · 29%

0-1Fourth down4-5

1-3Red zone TDs3-4

12/26Comp / att21/34

4.0Yards per carry3.6

3Turnovers2

4 (−23 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−9 yds)

7 for 38Penalties10 for 87

22:24Possession37:36

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.497+0.027

Dropback EPA-0.659+0.077

Rush EPA-0.201-0.024

Success rate33%49%

Explosive plays27

Plays4875

Who moved the needle

D.KincaidTargets: 6+6.4

K.ShakirTargets: 6+5.3

J.AllenDropbacks: 38+2.9

D.MooreTargets: 7+1.8

J.CookCarries: 21+1.6

T.JohnsonTargets: 3+1.3

Cost their side the most

J.FagnanoDropbacks: 25-10.5

T.HuntleyDropbacks: 5-9.3

Z.FlowersTargets: 5-7.2

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Joe FagnanoQB	10/21	91	4.3	1	3-15	7.3	40.0
Lamar JacksonQB	0/1	0	0.0	0	0-0	10.0	39.6
Tyler HuntleyQB	2/4	0	0.0	0	1-8	0.7	56.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Derrick HenryRB	11	53	4.8	1	12
Justice HillRB	3	15	5.0	0	6
Rasheen AliRB	2	5	2.5	0	7
Joe FagnanoQB	3	3	1.0	0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Rashod BatemanWR	1	3	22	22.0	22
Justice HillRB	4	8	20	5.0	9
Josh CuevasTE	1	2	15	15.0	15
Mark AndrewsTE	3	4	14	4.7	8
Ja'Kobi LaneWR	1	1	13	13.0	13
Derrick HenryRB	2	2	7	3.5	6
Zay FlowersWR	0	5	0	0.0	0
Matt HibnerTE	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Roquan SmithLB	11	6	0	0	2	0
Malaki StarksS	10	5	0	1	0	0
Kyle HamiltonS	7	5	0	1	0	0
K'Von WallaceCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Teddye BuchananLB	6	2	0	0	0	0
Mike GreenLB	6	1	0.5	0	0	1
Trey HendricksonLB	4	2	0	0	0	1
Trenton SimpsonLB	4	2	0	0	0	1
Nnamdi MadubuikeDT	4	1	0.5	0	0	2
Travis JonesDT	4	0	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler LoopPK	1/2	50.0	26	1/1	4

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	21/34	289	8.5	2	1	1-9	78.5	96.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	21	80	3.8	1	16
Josh AllenQB	7	30	4.3	1	14
Ray DavisRB	6	30	5.0	0	7
DJ MooreWR	1	4	4.0	0	4
Ty JohnsonRB	4	4	1.0	0	2
Kyle AllenQB	2	-2	-1.0	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Dalton KincaidTE	4	6	86	21.5	1	40
DJ MooreWR	4	7	82	20.5	1	49
Khalil ShakirWR	5	6	64	12.8	0	26
James Cook IIIRB	2	3	21	10.5	0	12
Ty JohnsonRB	3	3	19	6.3	0	18
Jackson HawesTE	1	2	7	7.0	0	7
Dawson KnoxTE	1	2	6	6.0	0	6
Keon ColemanWR	1	3	4	4.0	0	4
Joshua PalmerWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Geno StoneS	6	2	0	1	1	0
Terrel BernardLB	6	2	0	0	0	1
Te'Cory CouchCB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Damar HamlinS	5	2	0	0	1	0
Landon JacksonDE	4	2	1	1	0	1
Greg RousseauLB	3	2	1	1	2	3
Michael HoechtDE	3	1	0	0	0	0
Dorian WilliamsLB	3	1	0	1	0	0
Javon SolomonLB	3	0	0	0	0	0
Cole BishopS	2	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	3/3	100.0	56	3/3	12

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Ravens dropback offense vs Bills pass defense
The Ravens' dropback offense ranks 7th in EPA per dropback (+0.19, 238 dropbacks) against a Bills pass defense ranked 29th (+0.23 allowed, 264 dropbacks faced).
7thBAL offense22 spots apart29thBUF defense
2Ravens big-play offense vs Bills defense against big plays
The Ravens' big-play offense ranks 4th in explosive-play rate (11.3%, 426 plays) against a Bills defense against big plays ranked 26th (10.7% allowed, 411 plays faced).
4thBAL offense22 spots apart26thBUF defense
3Bills run game vs Ravens run defense
The Bills' run game ranks 5th in EPA per rush (+0.03, 151 rushes) against a Ravens run defense ranked 22nd (-0.06 allowed, 158 rushes faced).
5thBUF offense17 spots apart22ndBAL defense

When the Ravens have the ballEdge BAL · +22 ranks

BAL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

7th+0.19238 dropbacks

BAL +22

+0.23 allowed264 dropbacks faced29th

BAL run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

13th-0.06188 rushes

BAL +8

-0.06 allowed147 rushes faced21st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +17 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBAL pass defense

1st+0.33203 dropbacks

BUF +16

+0.05 allowed265 dropbacks faced17th

BUF run gameEPA per rushBAL run defense

5th+0.03151 rushes

BUF +17

-0.06 allowed158 rushes faced22nd

Third downEdge BUF · +15 ranks

BAL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

11th42.7%82 third downs

BAL +14

45.6% allowed79 third downs faced25th

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBAL third-down defense

2nd50.8%61 third downs

BUF +15

41.3% allowed92 third downs faced17th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge BAL · +11 ranks

BAL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

14th63%24 trips

BAL +11

69% allowed26 trips faced25th

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBAL red-zone defense

8th67%27 trips

BUF +11

64% allowed25 trips faced19th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge BAL · +22 ranks

BAL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

4th11.3%426 plays

BAL +22

10.7% allowed411 plays faced26th

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBAL defense against big plays

1st15.8%354 plays

BUF +9

8.0% allowed423 plays faced10th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

BAL pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

24th7.6% sacked238 dropbacks

4.2% of dropbacks264 dropbacks faced26th

BUF pass protectionsack rateBAL pass rush

17th5.9% sacked203 dropbacks

6.0% of dropbacks265 dropbacks faced16th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BAL · +9 ranks

BAL ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game7 games

BAL +9

1.0 takeaways a game6 games16th

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameBAL takeaway defense

24th1.5 giveaways a game6 games

0.9 takeaways a game7 games25th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: BAL 7 games, 426 offensive and 423 defensive plays · BUF 6 games, 354 offensive and 411 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jacoby BrissettQB→ Tyler Huntley

Olaivavega IoaneRG→ Andrew Vorhees

Calais CampbellRDE→ Teddye Buchanan

Jaylinn HawkinsSS→ K'Von Wallace

Dalton KincaidTE→ Dawson Knox

Alec AndersonLG→ Tylan Grable

Spencer BrownRT→ Austin Corbett

T.J. SandersLDE→ Landon Jackson

Ed OliverRDE→ TJ Parker

Dee AlfordNB→ Te'Cory Couch

AwayRavens3 questionable · 4 changes