Patriots 10, Seahawks 13: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Wed, Sep 9 · Lumen FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NE	0	7	3	0	10
SEA	0	0	3	10	13

Home · 5-4SeattleSeahawks13

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 9:50 AM ET

The Seattle Seahawks beat the New England Patriots 13-10 on Wed, Sep 9 at Lumen Field in Seattle, WA (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: Patriots 5-4, Seahawks 5-4. D.Lock (SEA) led all players with +8.2 EPA on 24 dropbacks.

Who won Patriots vs Seahawks?

The Seattle Seahawks won 13-10. By quarter: NE 0-7-3-0, SEA 0-0-3-10.

Who was the best player in Patriots vs Seahawks?

By expected points added: D.Lock (SEA, +8.2 EPA on 24 dropbacks), J.Smith-Njigba (SEA, +7.7 EPA on 11 targets) and M.Hollins (NE, +2.8 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Patriots vs Seahawks?

The biggest swing in win probability (48 points toward the Seahawks) came in Q4 at 0:26: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Patriots 10, Seahawks 13: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-09-ne-at-sea (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1EarnedGame file →

Patriots42% success · −0.11 EPA/play

1013

Seahawks40% success · +0.07 EPA/play

NE 5% deserveddeserved 95% SEA

Seahawks earned it: the snaps said Seahawks by 8.9, a deserved win probability of 95%.

Deserved marginSEA by 8.9

Real marginSEA by 3

Luck pts NE−0.2

Luck pts SEA−0.8

The swingQ4 0:26 · NE · −42 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

Flags that moved this game

1Ineligible Downfield PassNE → helped SEA · Wk 1 Q4 3:03 · (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-75-A.Vera-Tucker, Ineligible Downfield Pass, 5 yards, enforced at…+8.6 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceSEA → helped NE · Wk 1 Q2 9:22 · 10-D.Maye pass incomplete deep left to 1-A.Brown (29-J.Jobe). PENALTY on SEA-29-J.Jobe, Defensive Pass Interference, 34 yards,…+8.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1SEA · 4th & 1Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 30, Wk 1 Q1 4:42, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.23 EP
2NE · 4th & 2Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 40, Wk 1 Q1 1:28, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.83 EP
3SEA · 4th & 4Mike Macdonald chose Punt at own 48, Wk 1 Q3 9:37, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.45 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA141 plays, one strand1 lead change · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAdrian Hill17 accepted flags in this game · 16.9 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: SEA by 3 · Snaps: SEA by 8.9A push against the line; the snaps say Seahawks should have

10@13

Week 1

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Patriots after the play5%what really happened

Q4 0:26 10-D.Maye pass deep right intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-J.Jobe [0-D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

SEA ▲NE ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+48%Q4 0:26 · for SEA(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by J.Jobe [D.Lawrence] at SEA -3. Touchback.
+31%Q4 11:28 · for SEAD.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.
+20%Q4 2:00 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins to SEA 36 for 11 yards (E.Jones).
+16%Q4 0:32 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to M.Hollins pushed ob at SEA 16 for 12 yards (J.Jobe).
+13%Q4 3:49 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at NE 40 for 5 yards (D.Thomas).

Every drive, on the field

SEA attacks →← NE attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT5p · 25y · 3:18
Q1 11:42PUNT8p · 37y · 4:13
Q1 7:29PUNT5p · 20y · 2:54
Q1 4:35PUNT5p · 20y · 3:13
Q1 1:22PUNT4p · 17y · 1:34
Q2 14:48TD10p · 77y · 5:37
Q2 9:11PUNT5p · 20y · 4:32
Q2 4:39PUNT8p · 45y · 3:49
Q2 0:50HALF6p · 19y · 0:50
Q3 15:00FG8p · 39y · 3:11
Q3 11:49PUNT4p · 19y · 2:20
Q3 9:29PUNT3p · 0y · 2:36
Q3 6:53FG7p · 31y · 3:40
Q3 3:13INT6p · 23y · 4:01
Q4 14:12TD5p · 67y · 2:44
Q4 11:28INT5p · 8y · 2:08
Q4 9:20FG8p · 39y · 3:30
Q4 5:50INT15p · 57y · 5:29
Q4 0:21END1p · -1y · 0:21

Patriots9 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)22%drives ending in pointsOWN 19avg starting field position1three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Seahawks8 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)38%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position0three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
9:11TouchdownG.Van Roten reported in as eligible. D.Maye pass short left to E.Raridon for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.7–0
Q3
11:49Field goalA.Borregales 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.10–0
Q3
3:13Field goalJ.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.10–3
Q4
11:28TouchdownD.Lock pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Myers extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.10–10
Q4
5:50Field goalJ.Myers 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Stoll, Holder-M.Dickson.10–13

Team stats

NEvsSEA

277Total yards285

168Passing yards188

109Rushing yards97

4.1Yards per play5.9

19First downs13

5-16 · 31%Third down2-11 · 18%

2-2Fourth down1-1

1-2Red zone TDs0-2

23/33Comp / att17/24

3.5Yards per carry4.4

3Turnovers0

3 (−10 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−12 yds)

7 for 50Penalties10 for 98

34:17Possession25:43

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.110+0.066

Dropback EPA+0.065+0.226

Rush EPA-0.404-0.151

Success rate42%40%

Explosive plays36

Plays6747

Who moved the needle

D.LockDropbacks: 24+8.2

J.Smith-NjigbaTargets: 11+7.7

M.HollinsTargets: 5+2.8

D.MayeDropbacks: 42+2.7

C.KuppTargets: 3+1.7

A.BrownTargets: 4+1.3

Cost their side the most

R.StevensonCarries: 18-8.1

R.DoubsTargets: 3-6.0

R.ShaheedTargets: 3-2.9

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	23/33	178	5.4	1	3	3-10	65.6	54.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Rhamondre StevensonRB	18	51	2.8	12
Drake MayeQB	7	47	6.7	16
Corey KinerRB	6	11	1.8	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Mack HollinsWR	4	5	51	12.8	0	19
Rhamondre StevensonRB	5	6	44	8.8	0	17
Hunter HenryTE	3	3	26	8.7	0	13
A.J. BrownWR	3	4	26	8.7	0	14
DeMario DouglasWR	5	7	20	4.0	0	8
Lan LarisonRB	2	2	9	4.5	0	11
Eli RaridonTE	1	1	2	2.0	1	2
Romeo DoubsWR	0	3	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Robert SpillaneLB	8	7	0	0	0
Craig WoodsonS	5	5	0	0	0
Kevin ByardS	5	2	0	0	0
Marcus JonesCB	4	3	0	0	0
Christian EllissLB	4	3	0	0	0
Gabe JacasLB	3	3	1	2	1
Carlton Davis IIICB	3	2	0	0	0
Milton WilliamsDT	3	2	0	0	0
Namdi ObiazorLB	3	2	0	0	0
Dell PettusS	2	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	1/1	100.0	50	1/1	4

Seattle Seahawks

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drew LockQB	16/22	187	8.5	1	0	1-7	78.2	113.3
Sam DarnoldQB	1/2	13	6.5	0	0	1-5	2.5	70.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jadarian PriceRB	10	52	5.2	13
George HolaniRB	8	29	3.6	9
Drew LockQB	2	13	6.5	14
Emanuel WilsonRB	2	3	1.5	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	8	11	122	15.3	1	45
Cooper KuppWR	2	3	35	17.5	0	24
Brady RussellFB	2	2	20	10.0	0	13
AJ BarnerTE	2	2	13	6.5	0	9
Jadarian PriceRB	2	2	6	3.0	0	4
Rashid ShaheedWR	1	3	4	4.0	0	4
George HolaniRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Ernest Jones IVLB	13	8	0	0	0	0
Drake ThomasLB	9	3	1	1	0	1
Josh JobeCB	6	5	0	1	1	0
Nehemiah PritchettCB	6	5	0	0	2	0
Julian LoveS	6	4	0	2	1	0
Uchenna NwosuLB	5	4	0	1	1	0
Devon WitherspoonCB	5	0	0	0	0	1
Leonard WilliamsDT	4	3	1	1	0	1
Rodney Thomas IIS	4	3	0	0	1	0
DeMarcus LawrenceLB	3	1	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason MyersPK	2/2	100.0	30	1/1	7

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

TreVeyon HendersonRB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

Corey KinerFB→ Reggie Gilliam

A.J. BrownWR→ Romeo Doubs

Walter RouseLG→ Mike Onwenu

Matt PryorRG→ Alijah Vera-Tucker

Zach CharbonnetRB→ Jadarian Price

Brady RussellFB→ George Holani

Josh JonesLT→ Charles Cross

Nick EmmanworiNB→ Nehemiah Pritchett

Ty OkadaSS→ Rodney Thomas II

AwayPatriots3 next man up · 4 questionable · 5 changes