Rams 26, Broncos 30: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Empower Field at Mile HighFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
LAR	7	9	0	10	26
DEN	0	0	16	14	30

Home · 7-2DenverBroncos30

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:08 PM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Los Angeles Rams 30-26 on Sun, Sep 27 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Rams 5-4, Broncos 7-2. K.Mumpfield (LA) led all players with +7.1 EPA on 8 targets.

Who won Rams vs Broncos?

The Denver Broncos won 30-26. By quarter: LAR 7-9-0-10, DEN 0-0-16-14.

Who was the best player in Rams vs Broncos?

By expected points added: K.Mumpfield (LA, +7.1 EPA on 8 targets), P.Bryant (DEN, +6.5 EPA on 3 targets) and D.Adams (LA, +5.0 EPA on 13 targets).

What was the turning point of Rams vs Broncos?

The biggest swing in win probability (50 points toward the Broncos) came in Q4 at 4:49: (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Rams 26, Broncos 30: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-lar-at-den (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3RobbedGame file →

Rams41% success · +0.01 EPA/play

2630

Broncos39% success · −0.06 EPA/play

LAR 71% deserveddeserved 29% DEN

Rams played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Rams lost.

Deserved marginLAR by 3.1

Real marginDEN by 4

Luck pts LAR+0.6

Luck pts DEN+0.5

The swingQ4 5:01 · LA · −53 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Illegal Use of HandsLA → helped DEN · Wk 3 Q4 1:01 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards,…+10.2 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped DEN · Wk 3 Q4 1:15 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran…+9.4 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 38, Wk 3 Q4 7:10, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.79 EP
2DEN · 4th & 3Sean Payton chose Punt at own 38, Wk 3 Q2 11:51, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.42 EP
3LA · 4th & 4Sean McVay chose Go for it at opp 35, Wk 3 Q1 7:30, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: converted.−0.31 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA172 plays, one strand3 lead changes · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBill Vinovich18 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: DEN by 1.5 · Snaps: LAR by 3.1Broncos covered; the snaps say Rams should have

26@30

Week 3Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Rams after the play27%what really happened

Q4 5:01 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 23-K.Williams INTERCEPTED by 9-T.Hufanga at DEN 34. 9-T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DEN ▲LAR ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+50%Q4 4:49 · for DEN(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
+32%Q4 3:38 · for LAR(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.
+24%Q4 0:03 · for DEN(No Huddle) M.Stafford spiked the ball to stop the clock.
+24%Q4 0:47 · for DENA.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.PENALTY on LA-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.
+21%Q4 3:26 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant to LA 36 for 39 yards (K.Curl).

Every drive, on the field

DEN attacks →← LAR attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT7p · 27y · 4:02
Q1 10:58PUNT3p · 4y · 1:31
Q1 9:27TD11p · 63y · 4:32
Q1 4:55MISS9p · 40y · 3:36
Q1 1:19FG7p · 49y · 3:02
Q2 13:17PUNT3p · 7y · 1:32
Q2 11:45FG14p · 63y · 7:02
Q2 4:43PUNT7p · 21y · 3:36
Q2 1:07FG10p · 54y · 1:07
Q3 15:00PUNT3p · 6y · 1:03
Q3 13:57PUNT3p · 3y · 1:05
Q3 12:52TD12p · 42y · 5:08
Q3 7:44PUNT5p · -9y · 2:33
Q3 5:11TD7p · 52y · 2:56
Q3 2:15PUNT6p · 2y · 2:36
Q4 14:39INT4p · 23y · 1:41
Q4 12:58FG7p · 7y · 4:18
Q4 8:40PUNT3p · 8y · 1:37
Q4 7:03INT4p · 53y · 2:14
Q4 4:49TD4p · 77y · 1:11
Q4 3:38TD10p · 65y · 2:51
Q4 0:47INT8p · 48y · 0:47

Rams12 drives7scoring drives (3 TD)58%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Broncos10 drives3scoring drives (3 TD)30%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position4three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
4:55TouchdownM.Stafford pass short right to T.Higbee for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.7–0
Q2
13:17Field goalH.Mevis 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.10–0
Q2
4:43Field goalH.Mevis 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.13–0
Q2
0:00Field goal H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.16–0
Q3
7:44Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to P.Bryant for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Nix pass to J.Waddle is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.16–8
Q3
2:15Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to N.Adkins for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Nix pass to P.Bryant is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.16–16
Q4
8:40Field goal H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.19–16
Q4
4:49Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.19–23
Q4
3:38Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans.26–23
Q4
0:47TouchdownA.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.PENALTY on LA-T.McDuffie, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced between downs.26–30

Team stats

LARvsDEN

482Total yards257

366Passing yards179

116Rushing yards78

5.9Yards per play4.3

26First downs20

8-17 · 47%Third down7-13 · 54%

1-1Fourth down0-0

1-4Red zone TDs3-3

30/55Comp / att17/34

5.0Yards per carry3.1

2Turnovers1

4 (−24 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−7 yds)

13 for 91Penalties5 for 38

34:29Possession25:31

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.014-0.007

Dropback EPA+0.017-0.029

Rush EPA+0.008+0.026

Success rate41%39%

Explosive plays84

Plays8062

Who moved the needle

K.MumpfieldTargets: 8+7.1

P.BryantTargets: 3+6.5

D.AdamsTargets: 13+5.0

B.NixCarries: 4+2.0

T.HigbeeTargets: 11+1.9

K.WilliamsCarries: 15+1.6

Cost their side the most

K.WilliamsTargets: 7-5.0

J.WaddleTargets: 8-2.9

B.CorumTargets: 4-2.3

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Matthew StaffordQB	30/55	390	7.1	2	2	4-24	62.3	74.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kyren WilliamsRB	15	88	5.9	30
Blake CorumRB	6	15	2.5	7
Matthew StaffordQB	2	13	6.5	10

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Davante AdamsWR	7	13	137	19.6	0	49
Konata MumpfieldWR	4	8	93	23.3	1	48
Kyren WilliamsRB	6	7	70	11.7	0	20
Tyler HigbeeTE	8	11	62	7.8	1	14
Davis AllenTE	2	3	19	9.5	0	13
Terrance FergusonTE	1	2	9	9.0	0	9
Colby ParkinsonTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Blake CorumRB	2	4	0	0.0	0	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Omar SpeightsLB	6	3	1	1	0	1
Quentin LakeS	6	3	0	0	1	0
Kobie TurnerDE	5	3	0	0	1	0
Trent McDuffieCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Poona FordDT	4	2	0	0	1	0
Byron YoungLB	4	0	0	0	0	0
Kam CurlS	3	3	0	0	0	0
Josh WallaceCB	3	2	0	0	2	0
Shaun DolacLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Nate LandmanLB	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison Mevis	4/4	100.0	48	2/2	14

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	17/34	186	5.5	2	1	1-7	47.2	73.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
J.K. DobbinsRB	17	49	2.9	0	6
Jaylen WaddleWR	1	14	14.0	0	14
Bo NixQB	4	7	1.8	1	4
RJ HarveyRB	2	6	3.0	0	4
Tyler BadieRB	1	2	2.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Courtland SuttonWR	3	7	46	15.3	0	27
Pat BryantWR	2	2	44	22.0	1	39
RJ HarveyRB	6	7	41	6.8	0	19
Troy FranklinWR	1	1	21	21.0	0	21
Tyler BadieRB	1	1	12	12.0	0	12
Jaylen WaddleWR	2	7	10	5.0	0	9
Nate AdkinsTE	1	2	8	8.0	1	8
J.K. DobbinsRB	1	2	4	4.0	0	4
Evan EngramTE	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Brandon JonesS	12	10	0	1	1	1
Pat Surtain IICB	8	6	0	0	0	0
Alex SingletonLB	8	5	0	0	0	1
Riley MossCB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Que RobinsonLB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Talanoa HufangaS	5	2	1	1	3	1
Justin StrnadLB	4	4	0	1	1	0
Malcolm RoachDT	4	2	0	1	1	1
Jonah EllissLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Devon KeyS	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	0/1	0.0	0	2/2	2

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Rams pass defense vs Broncos dropback offense
The Rams' pass defense ranks 5th in EPA per dropback (-0.14 allowed, 70 dropbacks faced) and faces a Broncos dropback offense ranked 27th (-0.10, 64 dropbacks).
27thDEN offense22 spots apart5thLAR defense
2Rams pass protection vs Broncos pass rush
The Rams' pass protection ranks 3rd in sack rate (1.6% sacked, 61 dropbacks) against a Broncos pass rush ranked 19th (6.3% of dropbacks, 64 dropbacks faced).
3rdLAR offense16 spots apart19thDEN defense
3Rams run game vs Broncos run defense
The Rams' run game ranks 16th in EPA per rush (-0.12, 51 rushes) against a Broncos run defense ranked 32nd (+0.20 allowed, 55 rushes faced).
16thLAR offense16 spots apart32ndDEN defense

When the Rams have the ballEdge LAR · +16 ranks

LAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

14th+0.1361 dropbacks

-0.05 allowed64 dropbacks faced12th

LAR run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

16th-0.1251 rushes

LAR +16

+0.20 allowed55 rushes faced32nd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Broncos have the ballEdge LAR · +22 ranks

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLAR pass defense

27th-0.1064 dropbacks

LAR +22

-0.14 allowed70 dropbacks faced5th

DEN run gameEPA per rushLAR run defense

12th-0.0738 rushes

DEN +9

-0.04 allowed49 rushes faced21st

Third downEdge LAR · +14 ranks

LAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

15th41.2%17 third downs

LAR +10

50.0% allowed28 third downs faced25th

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLAR third-down defense

29th27.3%22 third downs

LAR +14

38.5% allowed26 third downs faced15th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge LAR · +13 ranks

LAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

10th67%6 trips

57% allowed7 trips faced13th

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLAR red-zone defense

21st50%6 trips

LAR +13

40% allowed5 trips faced8th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge LAR · +15 ranks

LAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

2nd13.4%112 plays

LAR +15

10.1% allowed119 plays faced17th

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLAR defense against big plays

15th9.8%102 plays

LAR +11

5.9% allowed119 plays faced4th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge LAR · +16 ranks

LAR pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

3rd1.6% sacked61 dropbacks

LAR +16

6.3% of dropbacks64 dropbacks faced19th

DEN pass protectionsack rateLAR pass rush

16th6.3% sacked64 dropbacks

DEN +13

2.9% of dropbacks70 dropbacks faced29th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +16 ranks

LAR ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

28th2.0 giveaways a game2 games

DEN +16

1.0 takeaways a game2 games12th

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameLAR takeaway defense

21st1.5 giveaways a game2 games

LAR +9

1.0 takeaways a game2 games12th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: LAR 2 games, 112 offensive and 119 defensive plays · DEN 2 games, 102 offensive and 119 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

CJ DanielsWR→ Davante Adams

Tutu AtwellWR→ Xavier Smith

Ty HamiltonNT→ Kobie Turner

Myles GarrettSLB→ Josaiah Stewart

Kamren KinchensFS→ Emmanuel Forbes Jr.

Jonah ColemanRB→ J.K. Dobbins

Adam PrenticeFB→ RJ Harvey

Troy FranklinWR→ Pat Bryant

Jonathon CooperWLB→ Jonah Elliss

JL SkinnerFS→ Brandon Jones

Devon KeySS→ Talanoa Hufanga