Texans 34, Jaguars 31: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Wembley StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	7	10	14	3	34
JAX	0	14	7	10	31

Home · 6-2JacksonvilleJaguars31

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:02 AM ET

The Houston Texans beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-31 on Sun, Oct 18 at Wembley Stadium in London (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Texans 3-5, Jaguars 6-2. C.Stroud (HOU) led all players with +13.1 EPA on 35 dropbacks.

Who won Texans vs Jaguars?

The Houston Texans won 34-31. By quarter: HOU 7-10-14-3, JAX 0-14-7-10.

Who was the best player in Texans vs Jaguars?

By expected points added: C.Stroud (HOU, +13.1 EPA on 35 dropbacks), T.Lawrence (JAX, +11.5 EPA on 43 dropbacks) and J.Noel (HOU, +9.3 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Texans vs Jaguars?

The biggest swing in win probability (33 points toward the Texans) came in Q4 at 0:00: K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Texans 34, Jaguars 31: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-hou-at-jax (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6Coin flipGame file →

Texans48% success · +0.23 EPA/play

3431

Jaguars52% success · +0.17 EPA/play

HOU 53% deserveddeserved 47% JAX

Texans earned it: the snaps said Texans by 0.4, a deserved win probability of 53%.

Deserved marginHOU by 0.4

Real marginHOU by 3

Luck pts HOU−1.6

Luck pts JAX−0.9

The swingQ4 0:03 · HOU · +29 pts of win probability. 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Too Many Men on FieldJAX → helped HOU · Wk 6 Q3 13:06 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback. PENALTY on JAX, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5…+9.5 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped HOU · Wk 6 Q3 1:02 · (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to 12-N.Collins (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass…+7.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 7, Wk 6 Q2 4:18, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−2.03 EP
2HOU · 4th & 1DeMeco Ryans chose Punt at own 29, Wk 6 Q2 11:20, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.21 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA144 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Hochuli12 accepted flags in this game · 14.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: JAX by 2.5 · Snaps: HOU by 0.4Texans covered; the snaps agree

34@31

Week 6Changes the winner

If the 49-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Jaguars after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:03 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-38-K.Kroeger.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

JAX ▲HOU ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+33%Q4 0:00 · for HOU K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.
+19%Q4 3:59 · for JAX(Shotgun) B.Fisher reported in as eligible. C.Stroud pass short right intended for X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchback.Penalty on HST-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield Pass, declined.
+17%Q4 1:04 · for HOU(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to W.Marks pushed ob at JAX 41 for 19 yards (B.Combs).
+17%Q4 0:47 · for JAXB.Fisher reported in as eligible. Direct snap to C.Stover. C.Stover right guard to JAX 32 for no gain (F.Oluokun; T.Walker). (Virtual Measurement).The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
+13%Q3 9:21 · for HOU(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to J.Noel for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.

Every drive, on the field

JAX attacks →← HOU attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT4p · 28y · 2:13
Q1 12:47PUNT3p · 3y · 1:39
Q1 11:08DOWNS7p · 18y · 2:54
Q1 8:14TD5p · 62y · 3:01
Q1 5:13INT14p · 59y · 6:55
Q2 13:18PUNT3p · 9y · 2:05
Q2 11:13TD8p · 79y · 4:26
Q2 6:47FG7p · 62y · 2:31
Q2 4:16TD9p · 48y · 3:21
Q2 0:55TD3p · 63y · 0:47
Q2 0:08HALF2p · -1y · 0:08
Q3 15:00TD11p · 65y · 5:39
Q3 9:21PUNT3p · 3y · 1:07
Q3 8:14PUNT5p · 19y · 2:43
Q3 5:31TD6p · 69y · 2:57
Q3 2:34TD5p · 65y · 1:44
Q3 0:50TD9p · 61y · 4:24
Q4 11:26INT12p · 63y · 7:33
Q4 3:53FG7p · 38y · 1:58
Q4 1:55FG7p · 36y · 1:55

Texans10 drives6scoring drives (4 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Jaguars9 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
5:13Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to F.Moreau for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.7–0
Q2
6:47Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short right to B.Tuten for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HST-A.Al-Shaair was injured during the play. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-L.Cooke.7–7
Q2
4:16Field goalK.Fairbairn 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.10–7
Q2
0:55TouchdownW.Milum reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence pass short right to B.Tuten for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-L.Cooke.10–14
Q2
0:08Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short left to F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.17–14
Q3
9:21Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Stroud pass short right to J.Noel for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.24–14
Q3
2:34TouchdownW.Milum reported in as eligible. T.Lawrence pass short right to N.Boerkircher for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-L.Cooke.24–21
Q3
0:50TouchdownB.Fisher reported in as eligible. J.Jordan left tackle for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.31–21
Q4
11:26Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to T.Hunter for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-L.Cooke.31–28
Q4
1:55Field goalC.Little 60 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-L.Cooke.31–31
Q4
0:00Field goal K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.34–31

Team stats

HOUvsJAX

426Total yards412

312Passing yards306

114Rushing yards106

7.2Yards per play6.1

23First downs24

5-11 · 45%Third down7-12 · 58%

0-0Fourth down0-1

3-5Red zone TDs3-4

24/34Comp / att24/41

4.6Yards per carry3.9

1Turnovers1

0Sacks allowed0

6 for 40Penalties6 for 66

29:37Possession30:23

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.225+0.174

Dropback EPA+0.373+0.268

Rush EPA+0.008+0.005

Success rate47%52%

Explosive plays67

Plays5967

Who moved the needle

C.StroudDropbacks: 35+13.1

T.LawrenceDropbacks: 43+11.5

J.NoelTargets: 4+9.3

B.TutenTargets: 4+7.4

T.HunterTargets: 4+6.7

N.CollinsTargets: 5+5.1

Cost their side the most

X.HutchinsonTargets: 3-5.8

W.MarksCarries: 15-2.4

J.MeyersTargets: 10-2.0

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
C.J. StroudQB	24/34	312	9.2	3	1	0-0	96.7	116.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Woody MarksRB	15	56	3.7	0	11
Jawhar JordanRB	6	43	7.2	1	25
Nico CollinsWR	1	5	5.0	0	5
C.J. StroudQB	1	5	5.0	0	5
Cade StoverTE	2	5	2.5	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaylin NoelWR	4	4	107	26.8	1	50
Nico CollinsWR	3	5	74	24.7	0	42
Marvin Harrison Jr.WR	3	4	34	11.3	0	14
Dalton SchultzTE	4	6	33	8.3	0	16
Woody MarksRB	2	3	25	12.5	0	19
Kayshon BoutteWR	2	3	16	8.0	0	10
Xavier HutchinsonWR	2	3	10	5.0	0	5
Foster MoreauTE	2	2	7	3.5	2	6
Jawhar JordanRB	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Brevin JordanTE	1	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Kamari LassiterCB	8	6	0	1	0
Azeez Al-ShaairLB	7	2	0	1	2
Derek Stingley Jr.CB	6	5	0	1	0
Tommy TogiaiDT	6	3	0	0	0
Henry To'oTo'oLB	6	3	1	1	0
Reed BlankenshipS	5	3	0	0	0
Calen BullockS	5	3	0	2	0
M.J. StewartS	3	3	0	0	0
Tremon SmithCB	3	2	0	2	0
Danielle HunterDE	3	1	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ka'imi FairbairnPK	2/2	100.0	49	4/4	10

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Trevor LawrenceQB	24/41	306	7.5	4	1	0-0	68.5	104.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	11	55	5.0	14
Bhayshul TutenRB	12	39	3.3	5
Trevor LawrenceQB	3	11	3.7	8
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	1	1	1.0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jakobi MeyersWR	5	10	83	16.6	0	28
Parker WashingtonWR	4	11	64	16.0	0	27
Travis HunterWR	4	4	59	14.8	1	26
Bhayshul TutenRB	4	4	48	12.0	2	27
Brenton StrangeTE	5	7	44	8.8	0	24
Nate BoerkircherTE	2	2	8	4.0	1	7
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Brian Thomas Jr.WR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Foyesade OluokunLB	8	4	0	0	0
Kaevon MerriweatherS	7	4	0	0	0
Antonio JohnsonS	6	5	1	0	0
Jarrian JonesCB	6	4	0	1	0
Ventrell MillerLB	6	1	0	1	1
Branson CombsLB	5	3	0	0	0
Eric MurrayS	4	2	0	0	0
Jourdan LewisCB	3	3	0	0	0
Travon WalkerDE	3	1	0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	3	1	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cam LittlePK	1/1	100.0	60	4/4	7

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Jaguars run defense vs Texans run game
The Jaguars' run defense ranks 1st in EPA per rush (-0.22 allowed, 97 rushes faced) and faces a Texans run game ranked 26th (-0.19, 108 rushes).
26thHOU offense25 spots apart1stJAX defense
2Jaguars red-zone defense vs Texans red-zone offense
The Jaguars' red-zone defense ranks 2nd in red-zone touchdown rate (33% allowed, 15 trips faced) and faces a Texans red-zone offense ranked 22nd (53%, 19 trips).
22ndHOU offense20 spots apart2ndJAX defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Texans pass rush vs Jaguars pass protection
The Texans' pass rush ranks 3rd in sack rate (9.0% of dropbacks, 201 dropbacks faced) and faces a Jaguars pass protection ranked 19th (6.3% sacked, 158 dropbacks).
19thJAX offense16 spots apart3rdHOU defense

When the Texans have the ballEdge JAX · +25 ranks

HOU dropback offenseEPA per dropbackJAX pass defense

14th+0.11203 dropbacks

JAX +8

-0.02 allowed198 dropbacks faced6th

HOU run gameEPA per rushJAX run defense

26th-0.19108 rushes

JAX +25

-0.22 allowed97 rushes faced1st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Jaguars have the ballEdge JAX · +10 ranks

JAX dropback offenseEPA per dropbackHOU pass defense

4th+0.27158 dropbacks

JAX +10

+0.01 allowed201 dropbacks faced14th

JAX run gameEPA per rushHOU run defense

7th+0.01130 rushes

-0.14 allowed111 rushes faced8th

Third downEdge JAX · +9 ranks

HOU third-down offensethird-down conversion rateJAX third-down defense

19th38.5%65 third downs

JAX +9

36.8% allowed57 third downs faced10th

JAX third-down offensethird-down conversion rateHOU third-down defense

6th46.7%60 third downs

39.1% allowed64 third downs faced13th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge JAX · +20 ranks

HOU red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateJAX red-zone defense

22nd53%19 trips

JAX +20

33% allowed15 trips faced2nd

JAX red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateHOU red-zone defense

16th60%15 trips

54% allowed13 trips faced11th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

HOU big-play offenseexplosive-play rateJAX defense against big plays

12th10.0%311 plays

7.5% allowed295 plays faced5th

JAX big-play offenseexplosive-play rateHOU defense against big plays

8th10.8%288 plays

8.7% allowed312 plays faced12th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge HOU · +16 ranks

HOU pass protectionsack rateJAX pass rush

23rd6.9% sacked203 dropbacks

5.6% of dropbacks198 dropbacks faced19th

JAX pass protectionsack rateHOU pass rush

19th6.3% sacked158 dropbacks

HOU +16

9.0% of dropbacks201 dropbacks faced3rd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge JAX · +15 ranks

HOU ball securityturnovers per gameJAX takeaway defense

2nd0.4 giveaways a game5 games

1.6 takeaways a game5 games5th

JAX ball securityturnovers per gameHOU takeaway defense

5th0.6 giveaways a game5 games

JAX +15

1.0 takeaways a game5 games20th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: HOU 5 games, 311 offensive and 312 defensive plays · JAX 5 games, 288 offensive and 295 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR→ Jaylin Noel

Dalton SchultzTE→ Foster Moreau

Jalen PitreNB→ M.J. Stewart

Brian Thomas Jr.WR→ Josh Cameron

Davon GodchauxRDT→ DaVon Hamilton

Montaric BrownRCB→ Jarrian Jones

Antonio JohnsonFS→ Eric Murray

Jessie Bates IIISS→ Kaevon Merriweather

AwayTexans1 next man up · 1 questionable · 3 changes