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The Verdict2026 · NFC East · through Week 9

Giants logoNew York GiantsThe Verdict

Giants are 5-2-1; the play says 5.1 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 4-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, John Harbaugh kicked away 4 of 9 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 12th of 32+0.45-2-1 real · 5.1 deserved · 4.3 Pythagorean
Luck points · 11th of 32+2.2fumble bounces +1.6 · opponents' kicks +0.6
Chicken Index · 20th of 3244%John Harbaugh · 5.9 expected points lost on 43 graded calls
Flags net · 3rd of 32+68.3 WP59 flags for 510 yards against · 61 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Giants logoGiants30% success · −0.13 EPA/play
1911
Eagles logoEagles24% success · −0.26 EPA/play

Giants earned it: the snaps said Giants by 5.8, a deserved win probability of 86%.

Deserved marginNYG by 5.8
Real marginNYG by 8
Luck pts NYG+5.3
Luck pts PHI−8.3

The swingQ2 13:37 · PHI · −15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 14-J.Milton sacked at 50 for -8 yards (52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (52-A.Reese) [52-A.Reese], RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at 50.

Week 7EarnedGame file →
Giants logoGiants41% success · +0.24 EPA/play
2721
Texans logoTexans38% success · −0.10 EPA/play

Giants earned it: the snaps said Giants by 15.4, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginNYG by 15.4
Real marginNYG by 6
Luck pts NYG−4.4
Luck pts HOU+6.2

The swingOT 8:23 · NYG · +26 pts of win probability. 44-C.Skattebo up the middle to HOU 30 for 42 yards (3-K.Lassiter).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games4-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+1.6 ptsKept 5 of 9 own fumbles; won 3 of 6 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+0.6 ptsOpponents made 8 of 11 field goals against an expected 7.8, and 16 of 18 extra points.
Own kicking−2.7 ptsMade 17 of 22 field goals against 17.9 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.00716th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-4Our pregame model in Giants games. All receipts

Coach on trial

John Harbaugh · 43 graded fourth downs · went for it 9×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 5.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1NYG · 4th & 13John Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 37, Wk 7 Q3 10:13, tied. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−1.30 EP
  2. 2NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Punt at own 29, Wk 9 Q1 0:42, down 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.21 EP
  3. 3NYG · 4th & 21John Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 38, Wk 3 Q1 12:22, tied. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: punted.−1.16 EP
  4. 4NYG · 4th & 2John Harbaugh chose Punt at own 32, Wk 5 Q1 3:47, down 6. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP
  5. 5NYG · 4th & 2John Harbaugh chose Field goal at opp 37, Wk 5 Q3 10:58, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.46 EP
  6. 6NYG · 4th & 19John Harbaugh chose Punt at opp 43, Wk 2 Q1 5:43, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP
  7. 7NYG · 4th & 3John Harbaugh chose Punt at own 32, Wk 4 Q2 10:07, down 8. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.31 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 6 Q1 8:09, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 9 Q3 7:10, down 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3NYG · 4th & 2John Harbaugh chose Go for it at opp 47, Wk 7 Q1 7:39, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4NYG · 4th & 1John Harbaugh chose Go for it at opp 32, Wk 7 Q4 11:37, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 11 · opp 34 · Q1 10:359Field goalField goal0.38-0.111.58✓good
4th & 14 · opp 31 · Q1 5:359Field goalField goal0.42-0.111.92✓good
4th & 1 · own 29 · Q1 0:429PuntGo for it0.10-1.11–−1.21punted
4th & 12 · own 48 · Q2 11:069PuntPunt-0.81-0.37–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 37 · Q2 5:299PuntPunt-1.50-0.75–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 46 · Q2 0:479Puntnot graded-0.24-0.43–punted
4th & 8 · own 29 · Q3 10:589PuntPunt-1.71-1.11–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q3 7:109Go for itGo for it1.02-0.49–✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 20 · Q4 9:109Field goalField goal1.79–2.65✓good
4th & 6 · opp 31 · Q4 4:289Field goalnot graded1.05-0.111.92good
4th & 8 · own 48 · Q4 1:429Puntnot graded-0.51-0.37–punted
4th & 2 · opp 47 · Q1 7:397Go for itGo for it1.01-0.26-0.53✓converted
4th & 11 · opp 38 · Q1 1:237Field goalField goal0.13-0.131.03✓missed
4th & 6 · own 27 · Q2 12:507PuntPunt-1.60-1.21–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 26 · Q2 0:037Field goalnot graded1.38–2.34missed
4th & 13 · opp 37 · Q3 10:137PuntField goal0.08-0.121.18−1.30punted
4th & 7 · own 34 · Q3 7:057PuntPunt-1.28-0.87–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 32 · Q4 11:377Go for itGo for it2.55-0.111.82✓converted
4th & 20 · own 14 · Q4 5:177PuntPunt-3.40-2.00–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 38 · Q1 14:186PuntPunt-1.44-0.71–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 48 · Q1 8:096Go for itGo for it1.52-0.28–✓converted
4th & 16 · own 8 · Q1 0:326PuntPunt-3.70-2.44–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 33 · Q2 11:216PuntPunt-1.45-0.92–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 16 · Q2 2:306Field goalField goal1.70–2.78✓good
4th & 8 · own 16 · Q3 10:446PuntPunt-2.59-1.87–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 25 · Q4 15:006Puntnot graded-2.44-1.32–punted
4th & 6 · opp 23 · Q4 2:086Field goalnot graded1.59–2.52good
4th & 1 · opp 14 · Q4 0:126Go for itnot graded3.84–2.82stopped
4th & 12 · opp 32 · Q1 7:155Field goalField goal0.45-0.111.82✓missed
4th & 2 · own 32 · Q1 3:475PuntGo for it-0.29-0.96–−0.67punted
4th & 8 · opp 33 · Q1 1:005Field goalField goal0.69-0.111.70✓good
4th & 23 · own 25 · Q2 5:075PuntPunt-2.70-1.32–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 39 · Q2 0:075Field goalnot graded0.13-0.140.88missed
4th & 2 · opp 37 · Q3 10:585Field goalGo for it1.64-0.121.18−0.46good
4th & 4 · opp 43 · Q3 5:335Go for itnot graded0.64-0.190.20converted
4th & 8 · opp 17 · Q4 7:245Go for itnot graded1.76–2.75touchdown
4th & 8 · opp 28 · OT 8:015Field goalnot graded1.01–2.19missed
4th & 4 · opp 21 · Q1 6:404Field goalField goal2.09–2.61✓good
4th & 10 · opp 32 · Q2 15:004Field goalField goal0.58-0.111.82✓good
4th & 5 · own 37 · Q2 13:094PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.80-0.75–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 32 · Q2 10:074PuntGo for it-0.66-0.96–−0.31punted
4th & 16 · 50 · Q4 6:134PuntPunt-0.87-0.32–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 34 · Q4 2:164Field goalnot graded1.02-0.111.58good
4th & 21 · opp 38 · Q1 12:223PuntField goal-0.26-0.131.03−1.16punted
4th & 3 · opp 21 · Q1 6:373Field goalField goal2.35–2.61✓good
4th & 4 · own 11 · Q1 2:533PuntPunt (toss-up)-2.31-2.21–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 18 · Q2 13:503PuntPunt-2.63-1.73–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q2 4:533Field goalField goal1.44–2.90✓good
4th & 11 · own 13 · Q2 1:343Puntnot graded-3.06-2.07–punted
4th & 11 · opp 11 · Q3 7:003Field goalField goal1.17–2.87✓good
4th & 15 · own 15 · Q4 12:553Puntnot graded-3.14-1.93–punted
4th & 10 · opp 46 · Q4 3:123Puntnot graded-0.31-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 8 · opp 43 · Q1 11:202PuntField goal (toss-up)0.05-0.190.20−0.39punted
4th & 19 · opp 43 · Q1 5:432PuntField goal-0.53-0.190.20−0.39punted
4th & 9 · own 28 · Q2 14:482PuntPunt-1.87-1.16–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 22 · Q2 7:462Go for itGo for it3.25–2.57✓converted
4th & 8 · 50 · Q2 3:212Puntnot graded-0.39-0.32–punted
4th & 5 · opp 6 · Q2 0:292Field goalnot graded3.12–2.92good
4th & 12 · own 32 · Q3 10:072PuntPunt-1.83-0.96–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 33 · Q3 3:552Field goalnot graded0.60-0.111.70good
4th & 10 · own 5 · Q4 14:472Puntnot graded-3.58-2.68–punted
4th & 10 · opp 35 · Q4 6:172Go for itnot graded0.39-0.111.46stopped
4th & 7 · own 39 · Q2 12:381PuntPunt-0.97-0.67–✓punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Encroachment on NYG in Week 3, worth +13 points of win probability to TEN.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1EncroachmentNYG → helped TEN · Wk 3 Q4 0:50 · (Run formation) PENALTY on NYG-49-T.Edmunds, Encroachment, 6 yards, enforced at NYG 24 - No Play.+12.5 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped ARI · Wk 4 Q4 0:27 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep left to 18-M.Harrison. PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass…+10.4 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped PHI · Wk 9 Q1 3:16 · (Shotgun) 14-J.Milton pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass…+9.9 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped DAL · Wk 1 Q2 9:57 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 3-G.Pickens (20-G.Newsome) [0-B.Burns]. PENALTY on NYG-20-G.Newsome,…+7.6 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped DAL · Wk 1 Q2 6:45 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 87-J.Ferguson (22-A.Phillips). PENALTY on NYG-22-A.Phillips, Defensive Pass…+6.4 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference814943.1
False Start188921.5
Encroachment1612.5
Offensive Holding98710.9
Unnecessary Roughness3439.2
Defensive Holding3126.4
Delay of Game4204.9
Illegal Shift3153.5

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive HoldingARI → helped NYG · Wk 4 Q3 2:34 · 34-D.Zvada 34 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-58-B.Mann, Holder-15-J.Stout. PENALTY on ARI-55-D.Stills,…+11.1 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessDAL → helped NYG · Wk 1 Q1 9:38 · (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left end ran ob at DAL 37 for 22 yards (0-D.Overshown). PENALTY on DAL-0-D.Overshown, Unnecessary Roughness,…+9.0 WP
  3. 3Face MaskWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 9:56 · (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass short left to 44-C.Skattebo pushed ob at NYG 40 for 7 yards (29-R.Douglas). PENALTY on…+8.9 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped NYG · Wk 2 Q1 7:06 · (Shotgun) 19-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 17-D.Mooney [0-B.Young]. PENALTY on LA-30-J.Wallace, Defensive Pass…+6.6 WP
  5. 5Delay of GameWAS → helped NYG · Wk 5 OT 5:43 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on WAS, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NYG 46 - No Play.+6.2 WP

Garbage Time Tax

19.8% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 15th most of 32

Bottom lineIsaiah Likely: 84 of 448 yards (19%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Jameis WinstonNYG · passing · 1,028 yds16%
Malik NabersNYG · receiving · 648 yds16%
Isaiah LikelyNYG · receiving · 448 yds19%
Cam SkatteboNYG · rushing · 418 yds15%
Malachi FieldsNYG · receiving · 288 yds16%

Our picks on the Giants

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Giants 69% at eagles. 19-11 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 7We gave the Giants 39% at texans. 27-21 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Giants 66% at home against saints. 34-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Giants 54% at commanders. 27-27 final, a tie. (rebuilt)–
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Giants 53% at home against cardinals. 24-36 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Giants 52% at home against titans. 7-12 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Giants 69% at rams. 6-28 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "New York Giants verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/giants/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.