Broncos 10, Chiefs 31: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Mon, Sep 14 · Arrowhead StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	7	0	3	0	10
KC	7	7	10	7	31

Home · 6-2Kansas CityChiefs31

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos 31-10 on Mon, Sep 14 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: Broncos 7-2, Chiefs 6-2. K.Walker (KC) led all players with +10.1 EPA on 23 carries.

Who won Broncos vs Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs won 31-10. By quarter: DEN 7-0-3-0, KC 7-7-10-7.

Who was the best player in Broncos vs Chiefs?

By expected points added: K.Walker (KC, +10.1 EPA on 23 carries), T.Kelce (KC, +5.0 EPA on 5 targets) and E.Engram (DEN, +4.1 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Broncos vs Chiefs?

The biggest swing in win probability (15 points toward the Chiefs) came in Q3 at 12:43: J.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Broncos 10, Chiefs 31: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-14-den-at-kc (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1EarnedGame file →

Broncos37% success · −0.38 EPA/play

1031

Chiefs42% success · +0.07 EPA/play

DEN <1% deserveddeserved >99% KC

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 17.7, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginKC by 17.7

Real marginKC by 21

Luck pts DEN−4.2

Luck pts KC+3.8

The swingQ3 12:53 · KC · +11 pts of win probability. 73-J.Ezeudu, 77-J.Moore and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingDEN → helped KC · Wk 1 Q1 1:14 · 27-J.Dobbins left end to DEN 26 for 3 yards (23-D.Tranquill; 32-N.Bolton). PENALTY on DEN-13-P.Bryant, Offensive Holding, 10…+3.1 WP
2Offensive HoldingDEN → helped KC · Wk 1 Q3 9:34 · (Shotgun) 12-R.Harvey left end pushed ob at KC 3 for 2 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on DEN-13-P.Bryant, Offensive Holding, 10…+1.9 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Punt at own 32, Wk 1 Q2 4:50, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.25 EP
2DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 20, Wk 1 Q2 9:28, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.56 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA132 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin14 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: KC by 2.5 · Snaps: KC by 17.7Chiefs covered; the snaps agree

10@31

Week 1Changes the winner

If the Broncos had stopped that fourth-and-2

Broncos after the play30%what really happened

Q1 11:35 64-H.Nourzad and 92-K.Tonga reported in as eligible. 9-K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (96-E.Uwazurike; 9-T.Hufanga).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

KC ▲DEN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+15%Q3 12:43 · for KCJ.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
+8%Q1 8:11 · for KC(Shotgun) P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.
+8%Q3 9:47 · for DENP.Mahomes pass deep middle intended for X.Worthy INTERCEPTED by B.Jones at KC 29. B.Jones to KC 5 for 24 yards (J.Moore).
+7%Q1 11:35 · for KC(Shotgun) H.Nourzad and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker up the middle to DEN 35 for 3 yards (E.Uwazurike; T.Hufanga).
+6%Q3 6:09 · for KC(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short left to T.Kelce to DEN 4 for 59 yards (J.Barron).

Every drive, on the field

KC attacks →← DEN attacks

Q1 15:00INT3p · -1y · 1:30
Q1 13:30TD10p · 46y · 5:19
Q1 8:11TD7p · 68y · 4:23
Q1 3:48PUNT3p · 3y · 1:05
Q1 2:43PUNT6p · 19y · 4:15
Q2 13:28PUNT6p · 18y · 2:24
Q2 11:04PUNT3p · 8y · 1:43
Q2 9:21PUNT6p · 8y · 2:59
Q2 6:22PUNT3p · 9y · 1:41
Q2 4:41TD10p · 80y · 3:02
Q2 1:39PUNT3p · 5y · 0:48
Q2 0:51HALF2p · 7y · 0:51
Q3 15:00TD4p · 69y · 2:17
Q3 12:43PUNT4p · 20y · 2:56
Q3 9:47INT1p · 0y · 0:13
Q3 9:34FG4p · -8y · 2:00
Q3 7:34FG7p · 58y · 4:17
Q3 3:17FUM5p · 4y · 2:50
Q3 0:27TD4p · 34y · 0:48
Q4 14:39PUNT3p · 5y · 1:14
Q4 13:25PUNT8p · 26y · 6:31
Q4 6:54DOWNS6p · 13y · 2:22
Q4 4:32DOWNS7p · 10y · 3:52
Q4 0:36END1p · -1y · 0:36

Broncos11 drives2scoring drives (1 TD)18%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position4three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Chiefs11 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 34avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:11Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes scrambles up the middle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.0–7
Q1
3:48Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep left to E.Engram for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.7–7
Q2
1:39Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to R.Rice for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–14
Q3
12:43TouchdownJ.Ezeudu, J.Moore and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. K.Walker left end for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–21
Q3
7:34Field goalW.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.10–21
Q3
3:17Field goalH.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.10–24
Q4
14:39TouchdownP.Mahomes pass short middle to K.Walker for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.10–31

Team stats

DENvsKC

176Total yards392

115Passing yards172

61Rushing yards220

3.7Yards per play5.9

9First downs19

2-12 · 17%Third down9-17 · 53%

0-1Fourth down2-3

1-2Red zone TDs3-5

17/28Comp / att15/27

4.1Yards per carry5.8

2Turnovers1

4 (−16 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−12 yds)

7 for 52Penalties7 for 60

26:18Possession33:42

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.344+0.164

Dropback EPA-0.443+0.026

Rush EPA-0.092+0.311

Success rate37%42%

Explosive plays17

Plays4664

Who moved the needle

K.WalkerCarries: 23+10.1

T.KelceTargets: 5+5.0

E.EngramTargets: 5+4.1

P.BryantTargets: 6+2.0

R.HarveyCarries: 3+1.2

P.MahomesDropbacks: 33+0.9

Cost their side the most

B.NixDropbacks: 33-14.6

X.WorthyTargets: 6-8.4

C.SuttonTargets: 5-4.8

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	17/28	131	4.7	1	1	4-16	9.7	69.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
J.K. DobbinsRB	8	36	4.5	17
RJ HarveyRB	3	18	6.0	7
Troy FranklinWR	1	5	5.0	5
Bo NixQB	3	2	0.7	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Evan EngramTE	4	5	43	10.8	1	19
Pat BryantWR	4	6	42	10.5	0	13
RJ HarveyRB	4	4	23	5.8	0	11
Courtland SuttonWR	2	5	11	5.5	0	6
Adam TrautmanTE	2	3	10	5.0	0	6
Jaylen WaddleWR	1	3	2	2.0	0	2
Troy FranklinWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	16	5	0	0	0	0
Dondrea TillmanLB	6	5	0	1	0	0
Riley MossCB	6	4	0	0	1	0
Talanoa HufangaS	6	1	0	0	0	0
Zach AllenDE	5	3	2	2	0	3
Brandon JonesS	5	1	0	0	1	0
Jahdae BarronCB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Que RobinsonLB	4	1	0	0	0	1
Justin StrnadLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Eyioma UwazurikeDE	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	1/1	100.0	31	1/1	4

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Patrick MahomesQB	15/27	184	6.8	2	1	2-12	53.4	86.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	23	173	7.5	1	60
Emmett JohnsonRB	8	24	3.0	0	6
Patrick MahomesQB	7	23	3.3	1	15

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Travis KelceTE	3	5	71	23.7	0	59
Emmett JohnsonRB	2	2	44	22.0	0	25
Rashee RiceWR	2	2	19	9.5	1	13
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	3	6	18	6.0	1	11
Xavier WorthyWR	3	6	18	6.0	0	9
Jake BriningstoolTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Noah GrayTE	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Tyquan ThorntonWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Cyrus AllenWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
L'Jarius SneedCB	8	7	0	0	0	0
Drue TranquillLB	7	2	0	0	0	0
Nick BoltonLB	4	2	0	0	1	0
Jaden HicksS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Nohl WilliamsCB	3	2	1	1	1	1
Alohi GilmanS	3	2	0	0	0	0
George KarlaftisDE	3	1	0	0	0	3
R Mason ThomasDE	2	1	1	1	0	1
Ben VanSumerenFB	2	1	0	0	0	0
Xavier NwankpaS	2	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison ButkerPK	1/1	100.0	28	4/4	7

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jonah ColemanRB→ RJ Harvey

Adam PrenticeFB→ J.K. Dobbins

Troy FranklinWR→ Pat Bryant

Malcolm RoachRDE→ Eyioma Uwazurike

Jonathon CooperWLB→ Jonah Elliss

JL SkinnerFS→ Talanoa Hufanga

Devon KeySS→ Brandon Jones

Ben VanSumerenFB→ Emmett Johnson

Josh DownsWR→ Tyquan Thornton

Jeffrey BassaSLB→ R Mason Thomas

Jadon CanadyNB→ Kristian Fulton