Lions 26, Panthers 32: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Bank of America StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DET	3	13	3	7	26
CAR	7	9	13	3	32

Home · 3-5CarolinaPanthers32

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:19 PM ET

The Carolina Panthers beat the Detroit Lions 32-26 on Sun, Oct 4 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Lions 6-2, Panthers 3-5. B.Young (CAR) led all players with +21.0 EPA on 45 dropbacks.

Who won Lions vs Panthers?

The Carolina Panthers won 32-26. By quarter: DET 3-13-3-7, CAR 7-9-13-3.

Who was the best player in Lions vs Panthers?

By expected points added: B.Young (CAR, +21.0 EPA on 45 dropbacks), T.McMillan (CAR, +16.7 EPA on 16 targets) and J.Goff (DET, +12.3 EPA on 53 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Lions vs Panthers?

The biggest swing in win probability (13 points toward the Lions) came in Q3 at 7:53: (Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep left to I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (A.Evans).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Lions 26, Panthers 32: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-det-at-car (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Lions46% success · +0.18 EPA/play

2632

Panthers50% success · +0.23 EPA/play

DET 22% deserveddeserved 78% CAR

Panthers earned it: the snaps said Panthers by 4.2, a deserved win probability of 78%.

Deserved marginCAR by 4.2

Real marginCAR by 6

Luck pts DET+1.1

Luck pts CAR−1.9

The swingQ3 7:53 · DET · +15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 18-I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (29-A.Evans).

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceDET → helped CAR · Wk 4 Q3 11:25 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan [97-A.Hutchinson]. PENALTY on DET-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass…+8.1 WP
2False StartCAR → helped DET · Wk 4 Q3 11:39 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on CAR-77-L.Fortner, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at DET 37 - No Play.+6.4 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA163 plays, one strand1 lead change · 13 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClay Martin17 accepted flags in this game · 13.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: DET by 4.5 · Snaps: CAR by 4.2Panthers covered; the snaps agree

26@32

Week 4Changes the winner

If the Lions had stopped that fourth-and-4

Lions after the play26%what really happened

Q2 8:52 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CAR ▲DET ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+13%Q3 7:53 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass deep left to I.TeSlaa to CAR 12 for 57 yards (A.Evans).
+13%Q2 8:08 · for CAR(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Wonnum]. R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.
+12%Q4 3:16 · for CAR(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan pushed ob at 50 for 18 yards (E.Rakestraw) [D.Moore].
+11%Q3 9:33 · for CAR(Shotgun) B.Young pass short middle to T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.
+10%Q4 4:05 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (D.Lloyd; Z.Wheatley).

Every drive, on the field

CAR attacks →← DET attacks

Q1 15:00FG7p · 29y · 2:55
Q1 12:05PUNT6p · 9y · 4:24
Q1 7:41PUNT3p · 4y · 1:51
Q1 5:50TD8p · 72y · 4:00
Q1 1:50FG10p · 48y · 4:13
Q2 12:37TD9p · 75y · 4:29
Q2 8:08TD11p · 68y · 5:54
Q2 2:14FG9p · 41y · 1:46
Q2 0:28FG4p · 49y · 0:28
Q3 15:00TD11p · 76y · 5:27
Q3 9:33FG7p · 57y · 3:12
Q3 6:21TD7p · 85y · 3:34
Q3 2:47PUNT7p · 27y · 3:04
Q4 14:43FG13p · 72y · 5:44
Q4 8:59DOWNS9p · 64y · 1:55
Q4 7:04PUNT3p · 3y · 0:57
Q4 6:07TD10p · 67y · 2:29
Q4 3:38PUNT6p · 13y · 1:32
Q4 2:06DOWNS4p · 9y · 0:44
Q4 1:22END2p · -4y · 1:22

Lions10 drives6scoring drives (2 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Panthers9 drives6scoring drives (4 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 24avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
12:05Field goalJ.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.3–0
Q1
1:50TouchdownC.Hubbard left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.3–7
Q2
12:37Field goal J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.6–7
Q2
8:08Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep right to T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [D.Wonnum]. R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.6–13
Q2
2:14TouchdownL.Borom and S.Gill-Howard reported in as eligible. J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.13–13
Q2
0:28Field goalR.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.13–16
Q2
0:00Field goal J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.16–16
Q3
9:33Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young pass short middle to T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.16–22
Q3
6:21Field goalJ.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.19–22
Q3
2:47Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.19–29
Q4
8:59Field goalR.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.19–32
Q4
3:38Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.26–32

Team stats

DETvsCAR

452Total yards445

406Passing yards318

46Rushing yards127

6.6Yards per play6.2

24First downs28

4-12 · 33%Third down5-12 · 42%

1-3Fourth down2-2

2-4Red zone TDs3-4

32/52Comp / att29/41

3.1Yards per carry4.5

0Turnovers0

1 (−6 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−11 yds)

9 for 67Penalties8 for 60

26:45Possession33:15

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.176+0.289

Dropback EPA+0.233+0.467

Rush EPA-0.023-0.030

Success rate46%50%

Explosive plays58

Plays6870

Who moved the needle

B.YoungDropbacks: 45+21.0

T.McMillanTargets: 16+16.7

J.GoffDropbacks: 53+12.3

S.LaPortaTargets: 13+8.9

J.WilliamsTargets: 8+7.1

J.MetchieTargets: 5+5.2

Cost their side the most

A.DillonCarries: 5-4.3

J.GibbsTargets: 7-2.6

A.St. BrownTargets: 11-2.0

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jared GoffQB	32/52	412	7.9	1	0	1-6	72.1	92.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jahmyr GibbsRB	15	46	3.1	1	13

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jameson WilliamsWR	6	8	102	17.0	0	49
Isaac TeSlaaWR	4	8	95	23.8	0	57
Sam LaPortaTE	8	13	84	10.5	1	25
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	8	11	75	9.4	0	19
Jahmyr GibbsRB	4	7	31	7.8	0	9
Sione VakiRB	1	2	17	17.0	0	17
Brock WrightTE	1	2	8	8.0	0	8

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jack CampbellLB	13	5	0	0	0	1
Christian IzienS	11	7	1	1	0	0
Chuck ClarkS	8	5	0	0	0	0
D.J. ReedCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Tyleik WilliamsDT	6	3	0	0	0	0
Trevor NowaskeLB	4	2	0	0	1	0
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CB	3	3	0	0	1	0
Jimmy RolderLB	3	3	0	1	0	0
Alim McNeillDT	3	2	1	2	0	2
Aidan HutchinsonDE	3	2	0	0	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake BatesPK	4/4	100.0	54	2/2	14

Carolina Panthers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bryce YoungQB	29/41	329	8.0	2	0	3-11	87.8	110.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chuba HubbardRB	20	122	6.1	2	32
Bryce YoungQB	3	3	1.0	0	7
AJ DillonRB	5	2	0.4	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tetairoa McMillanWR	14	16	192	13.7	2	32
John Metchie IIIWR	3	5	37	12.3	0	18
Darren WallerTE	3	6	36	12.0	0	16
Brycen TremayneWR	2	3	32	16.0	0	21
Tommy TrembleTE	4	4	12	3.0	0	5
Mitchell EvansTE	1	1	8	8.0	0	8
Chuba HubbardRB	1	2	7	7.0	0	7
AJ DillonRB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Ja'seem ReedWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Akayleb EvansCB	11	9	0	0	1	0
Devin LloydLB	9	5	0	1	0	1
Bobby OkerekeLB	7	4	0	0	1	0
Tre'von MoehrigS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Will Lee IIICB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Zakee WheatleyS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Princely UmanmielenLB	3	3	1	1	0	2
Nick ScottS	3	2	0	0	0	0
Lathan RansomS	3	0	0	0	1	0
Aaron HallDT	2	2	0	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ryan FitzgeraldPK	2/2	100.0	47	2/4	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Panthers big-play offense vs Lions defense against big plays
The Panthers' big-play offense ranks 7th in explosive-play rate (10.8%, 195 plays) against a Lions defense against big plays ranked 32nd (13.0% allowed, 215 plays faced).
7thCAR offense25 spots apart32ndDET defense
2Panthers dropback offense vs Lions pass defense
The Panthers' dropback offense ranks 11th in EPA per dropback (+0.15, 132 dropbacks) against a Lions pass defense ranked 26th (+0.21 allowed, 147 dropbacks faced).
11thCAR offense15 spots apart26thDET defense
3Panthers red-zone offense vs Lions red-zone defense
The Panthers' red-zone offense ranks 9th in red-zone touchdown rate (67%, 12 trips) against a Lions red-zone defense ranked 26th (77% allowed, 13 trips faced).
9thCAR offense17 spots apart26thDET defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Lions have the ballNo big edge

DET dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCAR pass defense

8th+0.25121 dropbacks

-0.01 allowed116 dropbacks faced13th

DET run gameEPA per rushCAR run defense

14th-0.0576 rushes

-0.04 allowed83 rushes faced20th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Panthers have the ballEdge CAR · +15 ranks

CAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDET pass defense

11th+0.15132 dropbacks

CAR +15

+0.21 allowed147 dropbacks faced26th

CAR run gameEPA per rushDET run defense

22nd-0.1563 rushes

+0.02 allowed68 rushes faced29th

Third downEdge DET · +8 ranks

DET third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCAR third-down defense

15th41.2%34 third downs

DET +8

45.2% allowed42 third downs faced23rd

CAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDET third-down defense

23rd36.8%38 third downs

CAR +8

57.5% allowed40 third downs faced31st

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DET · +29 ranks

DET red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCAR red-zone defense

3rd85%13 trips

DET +29

86% allowed7 trips faced32nd

CAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDET red-zone defense

9th67%12 trips

CAR +17

77% allowed13 trips faced26th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge CAR · +25 ranks

DET big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCAR defense against big plays

10th10.2%197 plays

9.0% allowed199 plays faced15th

CAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDET defense against big plays

7th10.8%195 plays

CAR +25

13.0% allowed215 plays faced32nd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DET · +8 ranks

DET pass protectionsack rateCAR pass rush

16th5.8% sacked121 dropbacks

6.0% of dropbacks116 dropbacks faced19th

CAR pass protectionsack rateDET pass rush

13th5.3% sacked132 dropbacks

DET +8

8.2% of dropbacks147 dropbacks faced5th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

DET ball securityturnovers per gameCAR takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game3 games

2.0 takeaways a game3 games2nd

CAR ball securityturnovers per gameDET takeaway defense

16th1.0 giveaways a game3 games

1.3 takeaways a game3 games10th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DET 3 games, 197 offensive and 215 defensive plays · CAR 3 games, 195 offensive and 199 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Blake MillerRT→ Larry Borom

K.J. BrittMLB→ Jack Campbell

Malcolm RodriguezSLB→ Trevor Nowaske

Brian BranchSS→ Christian Izien

Jalen CokerWR→ Brycen Tremayne

Tommy TrembleTE→ Mitchell Evans

Damien LewisLG→ Corey Bullock

Tershawn WhartonRDE→ Princely Umanmielen

Malcolm DeWalt IVLCB→ Akayleb Evans

Chau Smith-WadeNB→ Zakee Wheatley

AwayLions1 next man up · 1 questionable · 4 changes