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The Verdict2026 · NFC East · through Week 9

Cowboys logoDallas CowboysThe Verdict

Cowboys are 4-5; the play says 4.3 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-4 in one-score games. On fourth down, Brian Schottenheimer kicked away 4 of 10 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 22nd of 32−0.34-5 real · 4.3 deserved · 4.7 Pythagorean
Luck points · 23rd of 32−5.7fumble bounces +0.4 · opponents' kicks −6.1
Chicken Index · 22nd of 3240%Brian Schottenheimer · 3.6 expected points lost on 35 graded calls
Flags net · 6th of 32+56.0 WP74 flags for 667 yards against · 85 drawn

Every game, judged

Robbed 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: BAL @ DAL, where the Cowboys lost with a 74% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Cowboys logoCowboys46% success · +0.14 EPA/play
2723
Colts logoColts44% success · −0.16 EPA/play

Cowboys earned it: the snaps said Cowboys by 13.8, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginDAL by 13.8
Real marginDAL by 4
Luck pts DAL−4.8
Luck pts IND+3.6

The swingQ4 1:37 · DAL · +29 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 19-R.Flournoy to IND 19 for 46 yards (1-A.Gardner).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-4Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+0.4 ptsKept 3 of 6 own fumbles; won 4 of 8 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−6.1 ptsOpponents made 16 of 17 field goals against an expected 14.1, and 26 of 27 extra points.
Own kicking−2.1 ptsMade 17 of 22 field goals against 17.7 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.00914th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-3Our pregame model in Cowboys games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Brian Schottenheimer · 35 graded fourth downs · went for it 12×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.0 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at own 39, Wk 9 Q4 7:50, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.38 EP
  2. 2DAL · 4th & 4Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at opp 46, Wk 9 Q2 7:23, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP
  3. 3DAL · 4th & 4Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 6 Q1 11:20, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.65 EP
  4. 4DAL · 4th & 4Brian Schottenheimer chose Punt at own 43, Wk 1 Q1 2:05, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Go for it at opp 44, Wk 7 Q2 9:10, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Go for it at midfield, Wk 8 Q3 9:56, up 11. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 3 Q2 9:24, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4DAL · 4th & 1Brian Schottenheimer chose Go for it at own 32, Wk 8 Q1 11:00, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 6 · opp 26 · Q1 11:499Field goalField goal1.38–2.34✓good
4th & 2 · opp 10 · Q2 14:139Go for itGo for it3.54–2.89✓touchdown
4th & 9 · own 14 · Q2 11:319PuntPunt-2.83-2.00–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 46 · Q2 7:239PuntGo for it0.45-0.24-0.34−0.69punted
4th & 18 · own 38 · Q2 2:179PuntPunt-1.70-0.71–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 17 · Q3 11:349PuntPunt-2.11-1.80–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 9 · Q3 2:149Field goalField goal2.45–2.90✓good
4th & 1 · own 39 · Q4 7:509PuntGo for it0.72-0.67–−1.38punted
4th & 3 · opp 32 · Q4 3:349Field goalnot graded1.60-0.111.82missed
4th & 1 · own 32 · Q1 11:008Go for itGo for it0.29-0.96–✓stopped
4th & 7 · own 4 · Q1 4:448PuntPunt-3.35-2.77–✓punted
4th & 14 · own 43 · Q2 0:508Puntnot graded-1.23-0.52–punted
4th & 1 · 50 · Q3 9:568Go for itGo for it1.39-0.32–✓converted
4th & 5 · opp 12 · Q3 6:408Field goalnot graded2.52–2.86good
4th & 9 · own 40 · Q3 1:448Puntnot graded-1.10-0.63–punted
4th & 11 · opp 17 · Q4 3:588Field goalnot graded1.76–2.75good
4th & 13 · opp 23 · Q4 1:148Field goalnot graded0.99–2.52good
4th & 15 · own 24 · OT 7:138Puntnot graded-2.51-1.38–punted
4th & 8 · opp 37 · Q1 12:357Field goalField goal0.43-0.121.18✓good
4th & 1 · opp 44 · Q2 9:107Go for itGo for it1.77-0.200.02✓converted
4th & 4 · own 8 · Q2 1:527Puntnot graded-2.53-2.44–punted
4th & 5 · opp 6 · Q4 9:147Field goalGo for it (toss-up)3.12–2.92−0.20good
4th & 6 · own 38 · Q4 6:187Puntnot graded-0.90-0.71–punted
4th & 4 · opp 47 · Q1 11:206PuntGo for it0.39-0.26-0.53−0.65punted
4th & 12 · own 30 · Q1 2:466PuntPunt-1.96-1.06–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 38 · Q3 12:256Go for itnot graded1.58-0.131.03converted
4th & 12 · own 41 · Q3 3:356Puntnot graded-1.25-0.59–punted
4th & 2 · 50 · Q4 13:336Go for itnot graded0.82-0.32–stopped
4th & 5 · opp 23 · Q4 6:436Go for itnot graded1.75–2.52converted
4th & 11 · opp 14 · Q4 5:056Go for itnot graded1.89–2.82stopped
4th & 10 · own 44 · Q2 12:365PuntPunt-0.93-0.49–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 47 · Q2 9:205PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.37-0.26-0.53✓punted
4th & 10 · own 18 · Q2 3:155PuntPunt-2.63-1.73–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 23 · Q2 0:265Field goalnot graded1.59–2.52good
4th & 3 · own 43 · Q3 1:495Go for itnot graded0.03-0.52–stopped
4th & 5 · opp 21 · Q1 5:134Field goalField goal1.88–2.61✓good
4th & 5 · opp 32 · Q2 12:344Field goalField goal1.15-0.111.82✓good
4th & 16 · own 26 · Q2 8:234PuntPunt-2.42-1.27–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 44 · Q2 5:024Field goalField goal (toss-up)-0.25-0.200.02✓blocked
4th & 16 · opp 47 · Q2 0:304Field goalnot graded-0.68-0.26-0.53missed
4th & 6 · own 35 · Q4 7:084PuntPunt-1.09-0.83–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 32 · Q4 1:344Go for itnot graded-0.92-0.96–converted
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q1 8:133Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 6 · 50 · Q2 15:003PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.15-0.32–−0.17punted
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q2 9:243Go for itGo for it1.02-0.49–✓stopped
4th & 6 · opp 20 · Q2 0:233Field goalnot graded1.79–2.65good
4th & 4 · opp 47 · Q3 13:153Go for itGo for it0.39-0.26-0.53✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 41 · Q3 6:073Field goalField goal (toss-up)0.41-0.160.55✓blocked
4th & 6 · own 28 · Q4 5:573PuntPunt-1.54-1.16–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q4 0:103Field goalnot graded2.17–2.93good
4th & 5 · opp 6 · Q1 5:042Field goalGo for it (toss-up)3.12–2.92−0.20good
4th & 14 · own 31 · Q2 5:132PuntPunt-2.00-1.01–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 26 · Q3 7:242Field goalField goal1.25–2.34✓good
4th & 4 · opp 42 · Q4 13:272Field goalnot graded0.70-0.170.38good
4th & 5 · own 33 · Q1 12:591PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.06-0.92–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 43 · Q1 2:051PuntGo for it-0.23-0.52–−0.29punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on DAL in Week 3, worth +19 points of win probability to BAL.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped BAL · Wk 3 Q2 11:37 · (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep middle to 81-D.Walker. PENALTY on DAL-14-M.Bell, Defensive Pass Interference, 49…+19.0 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 10:48 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to 80-D.Burks (26-D.Bland). PENALTY on DAL-26-D.Bland, Defensive Pass…+12.1 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessDAL → helped NYG · Wk 1 Q1 9:38 · (Shotgun) 6-J.Dart left end ran ob at DAL 37 for 22 yards (0-D.Overshown). PENALTY on DAL-0-D.Overshown, Unnecessary Roughness,…+9.0 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 9:59 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 16-A.Dulin. PENALTY on DAL-53-D.Winters, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…+8.1 WP
  5. 5Offensive Pass InterferenceDAL → helped IND · Wk 9 Q4 12:34 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 88-C.Lamb ran ob at IND 38 for 13 yards. PENALTY on DAL-88-C.Lamb, Offensive Pass…+7.5 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference916652.1
Offensive Holding1716846.8
Unnecessary Roughness45321.7
Offensive Pass Interference33019.2
Neutral Zone Infraction63013.4
Defensive Offside4209.3
Illegal Use of Hands2159.0
False Start4209.0

Flags drawn

  1. 1Offensive HoldingHOU → helped DAL · Wk 4 Q4 3:30 · (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks left end to DAL 15 for 8 yards (24-M.Hooker). PENALTY on HOU-69-E.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+14.3 WP
  2. 2Intentional GroundingIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:03 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep right. PENALTY on IND-17-D.Jones, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at IND 26.…+14.3 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceBAL → helped DAL · Wk 3 Q4 0:28 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to 88-C.Lamb (2-N.Wiggins). PENALTY on BAL-2-N.Wiggins, Defensive Pass…+11.3 WP
  4. 4Illegal Use of HandsIND → helped DAL · Wk 9 Q4 1:19 · (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle to IND 11 for 8 yards (30-H.Wohler). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Illegal Use of Hands, 5…+10.3 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserBAL → helped DAL · Wk 3 Q3 2:55 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 3-G.Pickens pushed ob at BAL 33 for 19 yards (0-R.Smith; 29-C.Rivers). PENALTY on…+10.0 WP

Garbage Time Tax

18.9% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 18th most of 32

Bottom lineRyan Flournoy: 112 of 395 yards (28%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Dak PrescottDAL · passing · 2,381 yds21%
CeeDee LambDAL · receiving · 904 yds14%
Javonte WilliamsDAL · rushing · 629 yds12%
George PickensDAL · receiving · 533 yds25%
Ryan FlournoyDAL · receiving · 395 yds28%

Our picks on the Cowboys

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Cowboys 64% at colts. 27-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Cowboys 71% at home against cardinals. 33-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Cowboys 57% at eagles. 38-21 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Cowboys 43% at packers. 13-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Cowboys 64% at home against buccaneers. 24-16 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Cowboys 55% at texans. 34-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Cowboys 40% at home against ravens. 34-31 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Cowboys 47% at home against commanders. 20-37 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Dallas Cowboys verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/cowboys/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.