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The Verdict2026 · NFC East · through Week 9

Eagles logoPhiladelphia EaglesThe Verdict

Eagles are 2-7; the play says 1.4 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Nick Sirianni kicked away 5 of 12 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 7th of 32+0.62-7 real · 1.4 deserved · 2.5 Pythagorean
Luck points · 28th of 32−10.1fumble bounces −7.9 · opponents' kicks −2.2
Chicken Index · 21st of 3242%Nick Sirianni · 3.1 expected points lost on 53 graded calls
Flags net · 4th of 32+59.6 WP64 flags for 451 yards against · 78 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Giants logoGiants30% success · −0.13 EPA/play
1911
Eagles logoEagles24% success · −0.26 EPA/play

Giants earned it: the snaps said Giants by 5.8, a deserved win probability of 86%.

Deserved marginNYG by 5.8
Real marginNYG by 8
Luck pts NYG+5.3
Luck pts PHI−8.3

The swingQ2 13:37 · PHI · −15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 14-J.Milton sacked at 50 for -8 yards (52-A.Reese). FUMBLES (52-A.Reese) [52-A.Reese], RECOVERED by NYG-41-M.McFadden at 50.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Eagles logoEagles40% success · −0.16 EPA/play
1027
Commanders logoCommanders41% success · +0.05 EPA/play

Commanders earned it: the snaps said Commanders by 11.4, a deserved win probability of 98%.

Deserved marginWSH by 11.4
Real marginWSH by 17
Luck pts PHI+0.1
Luck pts WSH+2.3

The swingQ3 2:59 · PHI · −20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 16-T.McKee sacked at WAS 44 for -7 yards (92-D.Armstrong). FUMBLES (92-D.Armstrong), RECOVERED by WAS-90-C.Omenihu at WAS 40.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−7.9 ptsKept 4 of 7 own fumbles; won 1 of 7 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−2.2 ptsOpponents made 21 of 24 field goals against an expected 19.6, and 16 of 19 extra points.
Own kicking+1.4 ptsMade 7 of 8 field goals against 6.5 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.21431st of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them8-0Our pregame model in Eagles games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Nick Sirianni · 53 graded fourth downs · went for it 18×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.0 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1PHI · 4th & 2Nick Sirianni chose Punt at own 34, Wk 1 Q3 13:00, up 5. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.71 EP
  2. 2PHI · 4th & 2Nick Sirianni chose Punt at own 23, Wk 7 Q4 14:27, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.57 EP
  3. 3PHI · 4th & 10Nick Sirianni chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 6 Q1 4:00, down 3. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
  4. 4PHI · 4th & 2Nick Sirianni chose Punt at own 14, Wk 9 Q2 14:21, up 2. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
  5. 5PHI · 4th & 3Nick Sirianni chose Punt at own 37, Wk 5 Q3 13:38, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.40 EP
  6. 6PHI · 4th & 6Nick Sirianni chose Punt at opp 48, Wk 8 Q3 10:18, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.25 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1PHI · 4th & 1Nick Sirianni chose Go for it at own 38, Wk 4 Q3 1:07, up 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2PHI · 4th & 2Nick Sirianni chose Go for it at opp 46, Wk 2 Q2 6:26, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3PHI · 4th & 1Nick Sirianni chose Go for it at opp 40, Wk 9 Q2 2:00, up 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4PHI · 4th & 2Nick Sirianni chose Go for it at opp 47, Wk 4 Q2 14:53, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 7 · own 20 · Q1 9:129PuntPunt-2.20-1.61–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 14 · Q2 14:219PuntGo for it-1.45-2.00–−0.55punted
4th & 12 · own 44 · Q2 7:219PuntPunt-1.06-0.49–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 40 · Q2 2:009Go for itGo for it2.02-0.150.71✓stopped
4th & 4 · own 8 · Q2 0:269Puntnot graded-2.53-2.44–punted
4th & 12 · own 25 · Q3 13:079PuntPunt-2.29-1.32–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 22 · Q3 10:289PuntPunt-2.36-1.49–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 23 · Q3 0:279PuntPunt-2.11-1.43–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 42 · Q4 6:539Puntnot graded-1.44-0.56–punted
4th & 1 · opp 27 · Q4 2:009Field goalnot graded2.89–2.27good
4th & 11 · own 20 · Q4 0:489Go for itnot graded-2.57-1.61–converted
4th & 2 · own 44 · Q4 0:069Go for itnot graded0.45-0.49–stopped
4th & 9 · own 46 · Q1 10:398PuntPunt-0.73-0.43–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 22 · Q1 6:148Field goalField goal1.66–2.57✓good
4th & 9 · opp 48 · Q2 10:588PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.35-0.28–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 44 · Q2 2:408PuntPunt-1.06-0.49–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 35 · Q2 1:008Puntnot graded-0.11-0.83–punted
4th & 6 · opp 48 · Q3 10:188PuntGo for it-0.03-0.28–−0.25punted
4th & 14 · opp 23 · Q4 9:018Field goalField goal0.95–2.52✓missed
4th & 25 · own 28 · Q4 2:288Go for itnot graded-2.53-1.16–stopped
4th & 7 · opp 42 · Q4 0:028Go for itnot graded0.22-0.170.38converted
4th & 15 · 50 · Q2 2:377PuntPunt-0.83-0.32–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 46 · Q2 1:247Puntnot graded-0.24-0.43–punted
4th & 1 · opp 39 · Q3 10:347Go for itGo for it2.09-0.140.88✓converted
4th & 2 · own 23 · Q4 14:277PuntGo for it-0.86-1.43–−0.57punted
4th & 9 · own 17 · Q4 4:547Go for itnot graded-2.62-1.80–stopped
4th & 4 · own 23 · Q4 1:517Go for itnot graded-1.50-1.43–converted
4th & 10 · own 26 · Q1 13:416PuntPunt-2.09-1.27–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 19 · Q1 9:536PuntPunt-2.76-1.67–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 42 · Q1 4:006PuntField goal-0.06-0.170.38−0.55punted
4th & 12 · own 29 · Q2 12:576PuntPunt-2.02-1.11–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 12 · Q2 9:426PuntPunt-2.62-2.14–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 22 · Q3 10:366PuntPunt-2.18-1.49–✓punted
4th & 14 · own 27 · Q3 6:266PuntPunt-2.26-1.21–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 40 · Q4 8:306PuntPunt-1.57-0.63–✓punted
4th & 17 · opp 49 · Q4 4:326Go for itnot graded-0.84-0.30–stopped
4th & 1 · opp 37 · Q1 6:565Go for itGo for it2.22-0.121.18✓stopped
4th & 10 · own 49 · Q1 4:265PuntPunt-0.62-0.35–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 37 · Q3 13:385PuntGo for it-0.35-0.75–−0.40punted
4th & 3 · opp 43 · Q3 3:515Go for itGo for it0.90-0.190.20✓stopped
4th & 13 · own 41 · Q3 0:565PuntPunt-1.31-0.59–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 12 · Q4 12:195PuntPunt-3.06-2.14–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 7 · Q4 5:405PuntPunt-3.34-2.52–✓punted
4th & 16 · own 29 · Q4 2:145Puntnot graded-2.22-1.11–punted
4th & 6 · opp 30 · Q4 0:125Field goalnot graded1.12-0.112.02good
4th & 6 · own 29 · Q1 13:254PuntPunt-1.47-1.11–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 11 · Q1 8:424Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.72–2.87✓good
4th & 2 · opp 47 · Q2 14:534Go for itGo for it1.01-0.26-0.53✓converted
4th & 24 · opp 38 · Q2 11:024Field goalField goal-0.32-0.131.03✓good
4th & 14 · own 47 · Q2 7:084PuntPunt-0.98-0.40–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 30 · Q2 1:084Puntnot graded-2.11-1.06–punted
4th & 5 · own 18 · Q3 11:584PuntPunt-2.04-1.73–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 43 · Q3 6:324PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.43-0.52–−0.10punted
4th & 1 · own 38 · Q3 1:074Go for itGo for it0.66-0.71–✓stopped
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q4 7:314Go for itnot graded3.29–2.95stopped
4th & 9 · own 41 · Q4 3:074Puntnot graded-1.04-0.59–punted
4th & 25 · own 12 · Q4 0:154Go for itnot graded-3.67-2.14–stopped
4th & 12 · opp 46 · Q1 6:153PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.44-0.24-0.34✓punted
4th & 5 · own 25 · Q3 13:343PuntPunt-1.57-1.32–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 33 · Q3 8:473PuntPunt-1.76-0.92–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 44 · Q3 3:223Puntnot graded-0.52-0.49–punted
4th & 5 · opp 46 · Q3 0:273Go for itnot graded0.25-0.24-0.34stopped
4th & 22 · opp 39 · Q4 5:193Go for itnot graded-0.35-0.140.88stopped
4th & 2 · opp 46 · Q2 6:262Go for itGo for it1.07-0.24-0.34✓converted
4th & 23 · own 27 · Q3 11:522PuntPunt-2.56-1.21–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 40 · Q3 8:122Field goalField goal0.07-0.150.71✓good
4th & 8 · own 37 · Q3 0:072PuntPunt-1.20-0.75–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 48 · Q1 8:431PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.51-0.37–✓punted
4th & 21 · own 28 · Q1 5:091PuntPunt-2.44-1.16–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 31 · Q2 12:111PuntPunt-1.34-1.01–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 47 · Q2 0:451Puntnot graded0.64-0.40–punted
4th & 2 · own 34 · Q3 13:001PuntGo for it-0.17-0.87–−0.71punted
4th & 6 · own 24 · Q3 9:551PuntPunt-1.80-1.38–✓punted
4th & 16 · own 38 · Q3 5:191PuntPunt-1.63-0.71–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 17 · Q3 0:481Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.64–2.75✓good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on PHI in Week 4, worth +8 points of win probability to LA.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessPHI → helped LA · Wk 4 Q4 5:20 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 23-K.Williams pushed ob at PHI 26 for 9 yards (33-C.DeJean). PENALTY on…+7.6 WP
  2. 2Defensive HoldingPHI → helped DAL · Wk 7 Q3 4:53 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on PHI-2-T.Woolen, Defensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced…+7.1 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingPHI → helped DAL · Wk 7 Q2 1:52 · 5-B.Anger punts 41 yards to DAL 49, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-43-J.Thomas. PENALTY on PHI-49-E.Mitchell, Offensive…+5.2 WP
  4. 4Illegal ShiftPHI → helped NYG · Wk 9 Q4 6:53 · 10-B.Mann to PHI 28 for -14 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at PHI 21. 10-B.Mann punts -2 yards to PHI 40, out of bounds. PENALTY…+4.7 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingPHI → helped TEN · Wk 2 Q3 15:00 · 26-S.Barkley right end pushed ob at PHI 41 for 1 yard (21-M.Robinson). ** Injury Update: PHI-26-S.Barkley has returned to the…+4.4 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1615733.9
False Start104620.4
Illegal Contact52512.1
Unnecessary Roughness22810.7
Delay of Game6308.3
Defensive Holding3168.2
Roughing the Passer2276.9
Encroachment275.9

Flags drawn

  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceNYG → helped PHI · Wk 9 Q1 3:16 · (Shotgun) 14-J.Milton pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Cooper (2-D.Banks). PENALTY on NYG-2-D.Banks, Defensive Pass…+9.9 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingJAX → helped PHI · Wk 5 Q4 11:38 · 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 46 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10…+8.5 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingCAR → helped PHI · Wk 6 Q1 9:53 · 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on…+8.4 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped PHI · Wk 5 Q3 6:00 · (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass…+7.7 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped PHI · Wk 5 Q2 9:33 · (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards,…+7.6 WP

Garbage Time Tax

13.7% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 29th most of 32

Bottom lineMakai Lemon: 53 of 312 yards (17%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Jalen HurtsPHI · passing · 933 yds5%
Makai LemonPHI · receiving · 312 yds17%
DeVonta SmithPHI · receiving · 310 yds7%
Dallas GoedertPHI · receiving · 308 yds5%
Saquon BarkleyPHI · rushing · 296 yds<1%
Dontayvion WicksPHI · receiving · 284 yds13%

Our picks on the Eagles

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Eagles 31% at home against giants. 19-11 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Eagles 36% at commanders. 10-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Eagles 43% at home against cowboys. 38-21 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Eagles 33% at home against panthers. 25-14 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Eagles 19% at jaguars. 17-19 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Eagles 42% at home against rams. 24-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Eagles 39% at bears. 7-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Eagles 57% at titans. 24-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Philadelphia Eagles verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/eagles/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.