Chargers 16, Bills 24: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Highmark StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	10	0	3	3	16
BUF	0	10	0	14	24

Home · 7-1BuffaloBills24

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:42 PM ET

The Buffalo Bills beat the Los Angeles Chargers 24-16 on Sun, Sep 27 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Chargers 0-8, Bills 7-1. T.Johnson (BUF) led all players with +5.8 EPA on 4 targets.

Who won Chargers vs Bills?

The Buffalo Bills won 24-16. By quarter: LAC 10-0-3-3, BUF 0-10-0-14.

Who was the best player in Chargers vs Bills?

By expected points added: T.Johnson (BUF, +5.8 EPA on 4 targets), L.McConkey (LAC, +5.0 EPA on 5 targets) and T.Harris (LAC, +3.0 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of Chargers vs Bills?

The biggest swing in win probability (19 points toward the Bills) came in Q4 at 13:38: (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (J.Alt).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Chargers 16, Bills 24: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-lac-at-buf (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Chargers47% success · −0.07 EPA/play

1624

Bills50% success · +0.04 EPA/play

LAC 13% deserveddeserved 87% BUF

Bills earned it: the snaps said Bills by 6.3, a deserved win probability of 87%.

Deserved marginBUF by 6.3

Real marginBUF by 8

Luck pts LAC+6.0

Luck pts BUF−4.0

The swingQ4 11:15 · BUF · +19 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive HoldingLAC → helped BUF · Wk 3 Q4 9:36 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (90-A.Mesidor; 20-C.Hart). FUMBLES (90-A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by…+10.7 WP
2Offensive HoldingBUF → helped LAC · Wk 3 Q4 10:30 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles up the middle to LAC 4 for 16 yards (0-D.Henley). PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Offensive Holding,…+9.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1LAC · 4th & 10Jim Harbaugh chose Go for it at own 45, Wk 3 Q4 5:14, down 4. Model: Punt (lean). Result: stopped.−0.41 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA148 plays, one strand1 lead change · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewClete Blakeman17 accepted flags in this game · 15.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 7 · Snaps: BUF by 6.3Bills covered; the snaps say Chargers should have

16@24

Week 3Changes the winner

If the Chargers had stopped that fourth-and-6

Chargers after the play42%what really happened

Q4 11:15 17-J.Allen pass short left to 26-T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [92-J.Eboigbe]. PENALTY on BUF-88-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

BUF ▲LAC ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+19%Q4 13:38 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (J.Alt).
+17%Q4 11:15 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to T.Johnson for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty [J.Eboigbe].PENALTY on BUF-D.Knox, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 14.
+14%Q4 9:36 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (A.Mesidor; C.Hart). FUMBLES (A.Mesidor), RECOVERED by LAC-T.Tuipulotu at LAC 27.PENALTY on LAC-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 40 - No Play.The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Allen scrambles right end to LAC 32 for 8 yards (C.Hart; A.Mesidor).PENALTY on LAC-R.Shelley, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at LAC 32.
+13%Q4 15:00 · for LAC(Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (K.Mack).Los Angeles Chargers challenged the passer was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) J.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (K.Mack). FUMBLES (K.Mack) [K.Mack], RECOVERED by LAC-D.Henley at BUF 28. Fumble Forced by 0-D.Henley.
+10%Q3 9:31 · for LAC(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep left to L.McConkey ran ob at BUF 6 for 19 yards [B.Chubb].

Every drive, on the field

BUF attacks →← LAC attacks

Q1 15:00FUM1p · 4y · 0:16
Q1 14:44TD8p · 47y · 4:11
Q1 10:33PUNT5p · 4y · 3:06
Q1 7:27PUNT3p · 1y · 1:29
Q1 5:58INT5p · 0y · 2:35
Q1 3:23FG6p · 30y · 2:49
Q1 0:34INT2p · 3y · 0:45
Q2 14:49MISS11p · 63y · 4:27
Q2 10:22FG10p · 55y · 4:20
Q2 6:02PUNT4p · 12y · 1:57
Q2 4:05TD10p · 80y · 3:49
Q2 0:16HALF3p · 30y · 0:16
Q3 15:00FG13p · 69y · 8:48
Q3 6:12FUM4p · 41y · 2:22
Q3 3:50PUNT5p · 13y · 2:14
Q3 1:36FUM4p · 3y · 1:44
Q4 14:52INT3p · 5y · 1:27
Q4 13:25TD13p · 58y · 5:50
Q4 7:35DOWNS5p · 12y · 2:27
Q4 5:08TD6p · 45y · 1:55
Q4 3:13FG7p · 69y · 1:17
Q4 1:56END4p · 12y · 1:56

Chargers10 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 35avg starting field position1three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Bills10 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 35avg starting field position0three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
10:33Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Herbert pass short middle to K.Mitchell for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Dicker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.7–0
Q1
0:34Field goalC.Dicker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.10–0
Q2
6:02Field goalT.Bass 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.10–3
Q2
0:16TouchdownJ.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on LAC-T.Tart, Defensive Offside, declined. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.10–10
Q3
6:12Field goalC.Dicker 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.13–10
Q4
7:35TouchdownJ.Allen left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.13–17
Q4
3:13TouchdownJ.Cook up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.13–24
Q4
1:56Field goalC.Dicker 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Harris, Holder-J.Scott.16–24

Team stats

LACvsBUF

348Total yards350

217Passing yards174

131Rushing yards176

5.4Yards per play5.6

20First downs22

6-15 · 40%Third down6-12 · 50%

0-1Fourth down2-2

1-4Red zone TDs3-4

20/34Comp / att16/26

4.7Yards per carry5.3

1Turnovers5

2 (−9 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−30 yds)

7 for 50Penalties10 for 88

31:22Possession28:38

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.071-0.021

Dropback EPA-0.167-0.112

Rush EPA+0.068+0.070

Success rate47%50%

Explosive plays88

Plays6462

Who moved the needle

T.JohnsonTargets: 4+5.8

L.McConkeyTargets: 5+5.0

T.HarrisTargets: 7+3.0

J.AllenCarries: 7+1.5

A.IngoldTargets: 4+1.1

J.CookCarries: 24+0.5

Cost their side the most

J.HerbertDropbacks: 38-6.3

J.AllenDropbacks: 31-3.5

O.GadsdenTargets: 3-3.3

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Justin HerbertQB	20/34	226	6.6	1	1	2-9	23.4	76.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Omarion HamptonRB	15	56	3.7	10
Keaton MitchellRB	8	52	6.5	17
Justin HerbertQB	4	17	4.3	7
Kimani VidalRB	1	6	6.0	6

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tre' HarrisWR	6	7	76	12.7	0	29
Ladd McConkeyWR	4	5	66	16.5	0	29
Quentin JohnstonWR	3	6	40	13.3	0	21
Alec IngoldFB	3	4	35	11.7	0	25
Kimani VidalRB	1	3	14	14.0	0	14
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Oronde GadsdenTE	0	3	0	0.0	0	0
Omarion HamptonRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Keaton MitchellRB	3	3	-5	-1.7	1	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Daiyan HenleyLB	9	5	0	0	0	0
Tuli TuipulotuLB	6	5	1.5	1	0	2
Troy DyeLB	6	4	0	0	1	0
Del'Shawn PhillipsLB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Genesis SmithS	5	2	0	0	2	0
Derwin James Jr.S	4	3	0	0	0	0
Cam HartCB	4	2	0	0	0	0
RJ MickensS	3	3	0	0	0	0
Justin EboigbeDT	3	3	0	0	0	1
Akheem MesidorLB	3	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cameron DickerPK	3/4	75.0	33	1/1	10

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	16/26	204	7.8	0	2	4-30	59.8	54.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	24	154	6.4	1	23
Josh AllenQB	8	22	2.8	2	8
Dawson KnoxTE	1	0	0.0	0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
DJ MooreWR	6	10	67	11.2	16
Ty JohnsonRB	4	4	50	12.5	29
Dalton KincaidTE	2	3	38	19.0	24
Keon ColemanWR	1	2	37	37.0	37
Khalil ShakirWR	1	3	6	6.0	6
Dawson KnoxTE	1	1	5	5.0	5
Josh AllenQB	1	1	1	1.0	1
James Cook IIIRB	0	1	0	0.0	0
Jackson HawesTE	0	1	0	0.0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Dorian WilliamsLB	9	4	0	0	0	0
Greg RousseauLB	8	5	2	4	0	3
Davison IgbinosunCB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Cole BishopS	5	4	0	0	0	0
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	5	3	0	0	2	0
Terrel BernardLB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Dee AlfordCB	5	0	0	0	1	0
Landon JacksonDE	4	1	0	0	1	0
Christian BenfordCB	3	2	0	0	1	0
DeWayne CarterDT	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	1/1	100.0	28	3/3	6

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bills dropback offense vs Chargers pass defense
The Bills' dropback offense ranks 2nd in EPA per dropback (+0.53, 71 dropbacks) against a Chargers pass defense ranked 25th (+0.24 allowed, 71 dropbacks faced).
2ndBUF offense23 spots apart25thLAC defense
2Bills pass rush vs Chargers pass protection
The Bills' pass rush ranks 10th in sack rate (8.1% of dropbacks, 86 dropbacks faced) and faces a Chargers pass protection ranked 27th (9.1% sacked, 66 dropbacks).
27thLAC offense17 spots apart10thBUF defense

When the Chargers have the ballEdge BUF · +13 ranks

LAC dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

28th-0.1166 dropbacks

+0.26 allowed86 dropbacks faced27th

LAC run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

32nd-0.4547 rushes

BUF +13

-0.06 allowed49 rushes faced19th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +23 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackLAC pass defense

2nd+0.5371 dropbacks

BUF +23

+0.24 allowed71 dropbacks faced25th

BUF run gameEPA per rushLAC run defense

4th+0.0647 rushes

-0.23 allowed55 rushes faced8th

Third downEdge BUF · +12 ranks

LAC third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

27th31.8%22 third downs

BUF +9

40.7% allowed27 third downs faced18th

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateLAC third-down defense

3rd60.0%20 third downs

BUF +12

38.5% allowed26 third downs faced15th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge LAC · +23 ranks

LAC red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

5th80%5 trips

LAC +23

88% allowed8 trips faced28th

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateLAC red-zone defense

10th67%9 trips

50% allowed8 trips faced10th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

LAC big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

26th7.1%113 plays

11.1% allowed135 plays faced23rd

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateLAC defense against big plays

1st16.9%118 plays

7.1% allowed126 plays faced7th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge BUF · +17 ranks

LAC pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

27th9.1% sacked66 dropbacks

BUF +17

8.1% of dropbacks86 dropbacks faced10th

BUF pass protectionsack rateLAC pass rush

13th5.6% sacked71 dropbacks

BUF +14

4.2% of dropbacks71 dropbacks faced27th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BUF · +22 ranks

LAC ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

29th2.5 giveaways a game2 games

BUF +17

1.0 takeaways a game2 games12th

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameLAC takeaway defense

1st0.0 giveaways a game2 games

BUF +22

0.5 takeaways a game2 games23rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: LAC 2 games, 113 offensive and 126 defensive plays · BUF 2 games, 118 offensive and 135 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Scott MatlockFB→ Alec Ingold

Charlie KolarTE→ Oronde Gadsden

Kayode AwosikaLG→ Trevor Penning

Travis BurkeRT→ Rashawn Slater

Del'Shawn PhillipsRILB→ Akheem Mesidor

Donte JacksonRCB→ Derwin James Jr.

Elijah MoldenFS→ Genesis Smith

Alec AndersonLG

T.J. SandersLDE→ DeWayne Carter

Damar HamlinFS→ Maxwell Hairston

AwayChargers4 questionable · 7 changes

Offense

QB#10Justin HerbertQStart
RB#8Omarion HamptonStart
FB#30Alec Ingoldin for Scott MatlockSwap
WR#15Ladd McConkeyQStart
WR#1Quentin JohnstonStart
WR#9Tre' HarrisStart
TE#86Oronde Gadsdenin for Charlie KolarSwap
LT#76Joe AltStart
LG#75Trevor Penningin for Kayode AwosikaSwap
C#66Jake SlaughterStart
RG#69Cole StrangeStart
RT#70Rashawn Slaterin for Travis BurkeSwap

Defense

LDE#93Teair TartStart
NT#99Jamaree CaldwellStart
RDE#92Justin EboigbeQStart
WLB#45Tuli TuipulotuStart
LILB#0Daiyan HenleyStart
RILB#90Akheem Mesidorin for Del'Shawn PhillipsSwap
SLB#52Khalil MackStart
LCB#20Cam HartStart
NB#4Tarheeb StillStart
RCB#3Derwin James Jr.in for Donte JacksonSwap
FS#22Genesis Smithin for Elijah MoldenSwap
SS#23Tony JeffersonStart

K Cameron Dicker ✓P JK Scott ✓LS Josh Harris ✓

HomeBills2 questionable · 3 changes

Offense

Defense

LDE#90DeWayne Carterin for T.J. SandersSwap
NT#96Deone WalkerStart
RDE#91Ed OliverStart
WLB#15Greg RousseauStart
LILB#42Dorian WilliamsStart
RILB#8Terrel BernardStart
SLB#9Bradley ChubbStart
LCB#47Christian BenfordStart
NB#23Dee AlfordStart
RCB#21Davison IgbinosunStart
FS#1Maxwell Hairstonin for Damar HamlinSwap
SS#24Cole BishopStart

K Tyler Bass ✓P Tommy Doman Jr. ✓LS Reid Ferguson ✓

Also on the field with starter snapsDawson Knox TE

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Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills Game Highlights | NFL 2026 Season Week 3

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