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The Verdict2026 · AFC West · through Week 9

Chiefs logoKansas City ChiefsThe Verdict

Chiefs are 6-2; the play says 6.1 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Andy Reid kicked away 4 of 12 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 19th of 32−0.16-2 real · 6.1 deserved · 5.6 Pythagorean
Luck points · 4th of 32+12.1fumble bounces +17.3 · opponents' kicks −5.2
Chicken Index · 26th of 3233%Andy Reid · 4.4 expected points lost on 32 graded calls
Flags net · 14th of 32+0.8 WP55 flags for 484 yards against · 52 drawn

Every game, judged

Robbed 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 8 games went against the play. The biggest: KC @ DEN, where the Chiefs lost with a 71% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Jets logoJets39% success · −0.27 EPA/play
1235
Chiefs logoChiefs56% success · +0.18 EPA/play

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 22.4, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginKC by 22.4
Real marginKC by 23
Luck pts NYJ+0.3
Luck pts KC+1.5

The swingQ2 6:29 · NYJ · −22 pts of win probability. 0-B.Allen up the middle to NYJ 26 for 5 yards (32-N.Bolton). FUMBLES (32-N.Bolton), RECOVERED by KC-17-A.Gilman at NYJ 26. 17-A.Gilman to NYJ 24 for 2 yards (7-G.Smith).

Week 8RobbedGame file →
Chiefs logoChiefs49% success · +0.15 EPA/play
2428
Broncos logoBroncos43% success · +0.09 EPA/play

Chiefs played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Chiefs lost.

Deserved marginKC by 3.1
Real marginDEN by 4
Luck pts KC−0.8
Luck pts DEN+1.4

The swingQ4 0:04 · KC · −38 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+17.3 ptsKept 9 of 11 own fumbles; won 4 of 6 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−5.2 ptsOpponents made 19 of 20 field goals against an expected 17.4, and 10 of 10 extra points.
Own kicking−11.4 ptsMade 12 of 19 field goals against 15.8 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.1634th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-2Our pregame model in Chiefs games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Andy Reid · 32 graded fourth downs · went for it 13×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 4.0 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1KC · 4th & 3Andy Reid chose Punt at opp 45, Wk 4 Q2 11:28, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.99 EP
  2. 2KC · 4th & 4Andy Reid chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 7 Q1 1:54, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.87 EP
  3. 3KC · 4th & 2Andy Reid chose Punt at own 39, Wk 9 Q2 6:42, down 2. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.81 EP
  4. 4KC · 4th & 9Andy Reid chose Go for it at own 30, Wk 4 Q1 13:21, tied. Model: Punt (lean). Result: converted.−0.68 EP
  5. 5KC · 4th & 2Andy Reid chose Punt at own 31, Wk 8 Q1 2:16, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.66 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 2 Q3 12:01, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at opp 49, Wk 7 Q2 6:49, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at own 40, Wk 1 Q3 12:53, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  4. 4KC · 4th & 1Andy Reid chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 2 Q3 8:06, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q2 6:429PuntGo for it0.14-0.67–−0.81punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q3 10:279Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 11 · own 32 · Q3 6:439PuntPunt-1.76-0.96–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 44 · Q4 7:399Puntnot graded0.83-0.200.02punted
4th & 6 · own 39 · Q1 13:488PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.84-0.67–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 31 · Q1 2:168PuntGo for it-0.35-1.01–−0.66punted
4th & 10 · own 20 · Q2 13:598PuntPunt-2.49-1.61–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 27 · Q2 0:238Field goalnot graded2.31–2.27good
4th & 7 · own 38 · Q3 9:448PuntPunt-1.03-0.71–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 41 · Q4 13:218Puntnot graded0.84-0.59–punted
4th & 8 · opp 36 · Q4 2:368Field goalnot graded0.49-0.121.32missed
4th & 6 · opp 6 · Q4 0:048Go for itnot graded1.95–2.92stopped
4th & 12 · own 49 · Q1 12:047PuntPunt-0.75-0.35–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 42 · Q1 1:547PuntGo for it0.70-0.170.38−0.87punted
4th & 1 · opp 49 · Q2 6:497Go for itGo for it1.46-0.30–✓converted
4th & 5 · own 40 · Q2 1:297Puntnot graded-0.62-0.63–punted
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q3 5:487Go for itnot graded1.02-0.49–converted
4th & 9 · opp 32 · Q3 1:477Field goalnot graded0.66-0.111.82good
4th & 3 · opp 27 · Q4 8:387Field goalField goal1.94–2.27✓missed
4th & 10 · own 42 · Q4 3:197Go for itnot graded-1.06-0.56–stopped
4th & 2 · opp 26 · Q1 11:256Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.38–2.34−0.04good
4th & 7 · opp 48 · Q2 14:186PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.15-0.28–−0.12punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q3 6:346Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95stopped
4th & 2 · own 25 · Q3 0:356Puntnot graded-0.73-1.32–punted
4th & 1 · opp 35 · Q4 11:516Field goalnot graded2.35-0.111.46missed
4th & 10 · opp 12 · Q4 3:566Field goalnot graded2.08–2.86good
4th & 9 · own 30 · Q1 13:214Go for itPunt-1.74-1.06–−0.68converted
4th & 2 · 50 · Q1 10:484Go for itGo for it0.82-0.32–✓stopped
4th & 3 · opp 45 · Q2 11:284PuntGo for it0.77-0.22-0.16−0.99punted
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q2 1:264Field goalnot graded1.30–2.89good
4th & 18 · own 34 · Q3 8:454PuntPunt-1.96-0.87–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 45 · Q3 3:434PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.59-0.46–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 35 · Q4 9:504PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.93-0.83–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 47 · Q4 1:264Puntnot graded-0.57-0.40–punted
4th & 1 · opp 12 · Q2 6:153Go for itGo for it4.00–2.86✓stopped
4th & 8 · own 38 · Q3 8:133PuntPunt-1.14-0.71–✓punted
4th & 16 · opp 16 · Q4 11:383Field goalField goal0.64–2.78✓good
4th & 6 · opp 32 · Q4 0:573Field goalnot graded0.99-0.111.82missed
4th & 9 · opp 28 · Q1 6:132Field goalField goal0.92–2.19✓good
4th & 3 · opp 33 · Q2 12:472Field goalField goal (toss-up)1.54-0.111.70✓missed
4th & 10 · own 20 · Q2 0:462Puntnot graded-2.49-1.61–punted
4th & 1 · opp 48 · Q3 12:012Go for itGo for it1.52-0.28–✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q3 8:062Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 6 · opp 10 · Q4 14:182Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.75–2.89✓good
4th & 7 · own 42 · Q4 3:222Puntnot graded-0.78-0.56–punted
4th & 9 · opp 13 · OT 5:132Field goalnot graded2.16–2.84good
4th & 2 · opp 38 · Q1 11:351Go for itGo for it1.58-0.131.03✓converted
4th & 7 · own 37 · Q1 2:511PuntPunt-1.09-0.75–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 47 · Q2 11:141PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.18-0.40–−0.22punted
4th & 12 · own 33 · Q2 6:341PuntPunt-1.76-0.92–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q3 12:531Go for itGo for it0.78-0.63–✓touchdown
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q3 3:201Field goalnot graded1.44–2.90good
4th & 12 · own 32 · Q4 7:081Puntnot graded-1.83-0.96–punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on KC in Week 2, worth +10 points of win probability to IND.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceKC → helped IND · Wk 2 Q2 11:18 · 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell [56-G.Karlaftis]. PENALTY on…+9.6 WP
  2. 2Illegal Use of HandsKC → helped MIA · Wk 3 Q1 7:09 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left guard to KC 32 for 10 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Illegal Use of…+9.3 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserKC → helped IND · Wk 2 Q1 9:34 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to KC 3 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Roughing the…+7.3 WP
  4. 4Unnecessary RoughnessKC → helped DEN · Wk 8 Q1 11:41 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 46-A.Prentice pushed ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (43-J.Cochrane). PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane,…+7.3 WP
  5. 5Defensive HoldingKC → helped MIA · Wk 3 Q2 4:03 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 21-K.Coleman. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced…+7.2 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1412926.3
Unnecessary Roughness56122.3
Defensive Pass Interference58421.5
Illegal Use of Hands32013.3
Roughing the Passer44512.2
Defensive Holding31511.7
False Start3159.5
Illegal Formation5258.9

Flags drawn

  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessLV → helped KC · Wk 4 Q4 3:35 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 2-T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (31-T.Stukes). KC-2-T.Thornton was injured during the…+34.9 WP
  2. 2Face MaskDEN → helped KC · Wk 8 Q1 9:04 · 9-K.Walker right guard to 50 for 4 yards (29-J.McMillian; 96-E.Uwazurike). PENALTY on DEN-96-E.Uwazurike, Face Mask, 15 yards,…+7.4 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserMIA → helped KC · Wk 3 Q3 2:26 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice. PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,…+6.2 WP
  4. 4Illegal ContactNYJ → helped KC · Wk 9 Q2 1:54 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 1-X.Worthy. PENALTY on NYJ-23-D.Ponds, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced…+5.4 WP
  5. 5False StartLV → helped KC · Wk 4 Q4 6:28 · PENALTY on LV-34-C.Heyward, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at KC 29 - No Play.+4.8 WP

Garbage Time Tax

16.1% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 25th most of 32

Bottom lineXavier Worthy: 52 of 278 yards (19%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Patrick MahomesKC · passing · 2,037 yds15%
Kenneth Walker IIIKC · rushing · 872 yds12%
Travis KelceKC · receiving · 482 yds12%
Rashee RiceKC · receiving · 292 yds13%
Xavier WorthyKC · receiving · 278 yds19%

Our picks on the Chiefs

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Chiefs 70% at home against jets. 12-35 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Chiefs 61% at broncos. 24-28 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Chiefs 63% at seahawks. 3-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Chiefs 85% at home against chargers. 6-22 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Chiefs 52% at raiders. 30-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Chiefs 79% at dolphins. 24-10 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Chiefs 84% at home against colts. 30-33 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Kansas City Chiefs verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/chiefs/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.