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Panthers DeskPanthers outplayed Denver and lost 26-21 on a late strip sack9 min agoLions DeskLions earned 19-9 in Miami, with a defense doing the work and a thin offense19 min agoBrowns DeskBrowns' 33% success rate earned a 23-22 overtime loss to the Saints29 min agoBills DeskBills earned a 23-6 win in Minnesota despite a 40 percent success rate30 min agoESPNWill Daniel Jones become a Minnesota Vikings player today?InjuryAlec Anderson: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryDion Dawkins: Out → Questionable1 h agoNew York JetsHow Will the Jets Approach the NFL's Trade Deadline?New York JetsMore Amazing Facts from David Bailey's Performance in Kansas CityPro Football RumorsVikings Expected To Explore QB TradeESPNFantasy buzz: James Cook III helps Bills overcome tough Vikings defenseDetroit LionsTWENTYMAN: 5 stats that stand out following Lions' Week 9 victoryESPNSeven things Solak thinks for NFL Week 10: Jaguars trades, All-Pro picks, morePittsburgh SteelersAsked and Answered: Nov. 10ESPNCommanders running low on time to 'put it all together'New York GiantsGiants Now: Michael Strahan offers high praise of Arvell ReesePhiladelphia EaglesAAA Official Review: What did the Eagles, Joe Milton learn from the QB's first start?Buffalo Bills'There's no panic' | The Bills stay strong through early struggles and injuries in MNF win over the Minnesota VikingsESPNVikings left at QB crossroads after Carson Wentz's poor MNF showing vs. BillsBroncos DeskBroncos are 7-2, but the snaps say 4.1 wins and the 11th seed in the conference8 h agoInjuryByron Murphy Jr.: Active → Cleared8 h agoMinnesota VikingsVikings Defense Limits Bills Below Averages
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The Verdict2026 · AFC East · through Week 9

Dolphins logoMiami DolphinsThe Verdict

Dolphins are 1-7; the play says 1.5 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 1-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Jeff Hafley kicked away 2 of 8 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 24th of 32−0.51-7 real · 1.5 deserved · 2.0 Pythagorean
Luck points · 16th of 32−1.7fumble bounces −4.3 · opponents' kicks +2.6
Chicken Index · 29th of 3225%Jeff Hafley · 1.7 expected points lost on 37 graded calls
Flags net · 16th of 32−6.9 WP60 flags for 423 yards against · 58 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Lions logoLions44% success · +0.01 EPA/play
199
Dolphins logoDolphins29% success · −0.21 EPA/play

Lions earned it: the snaps said Lions by 7.5, a deserved win probability of 92%.

Deserved marginDET by 7.5
Real marginDET by 10
Luck pts DET+1.6
Luck pts MIA−1.0

The swingQ1 5:14 · DET · −18 pts of win probability. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 3-C.Johnson (9-J.Uche) [9-J.Uche] at MIA 40. 3-C.Johnson to DET 39 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Patriots logoPatriots50% success · +0.04 EPA/play
2419
Dolphins logoDolphins41% success · −0.06 EPA/play

Patriots earned it: the snaps said Patriots by 4.0, a deserved win probability of 77%.

Deserved marginNE by 4.0
Real marginNE by 5
Luck pts NE+3.3
Luck pts MIA+0.7

The swingQ1 5:59 · NE · −17 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye pass short left to 86-E.Chism to NE 18 for 4 yards (10-J.Rodriguez; 19-K.Louis). FUMBLES (10-J.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIA-8-J.Brents at NE 19.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−4.3 ptsKept 2 of 6 own fumbles; won 2 of 4 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+2.6 ptsOpponents made 15 of 18 field goals against an expected 16.2, and 21 of 21 extra points.
Own kicking−7.0 ptsMade 12 of 16 field goals against 14.3 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.17630th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them6-1Our pregame model in Dolphins games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Jeff Hafley · 37 graded fourth downs · went for it 12×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 1.4 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1MIA · 4th & 2Jeff Hafley chose Punt at own 23, Wk 7 Q2 11:17, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.57 EP
  2. 2MIA · 4th & 9Jeff Hafley chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 3 Q3 3:18, down 4. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
  3. 3MIA · 4th & 3Jeff Hafley chose Punt at own 31, Wk 1 Q2 14:22, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.29 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1MIA · 4th & 1Jeff Hafley chose Go for it at opp 2, Wk 7 Q1 1:46, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2MIA · 4th & 2Jeff Hafley chose Go for it at opp 41, Wk 7 Q2 3:14, up 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3MIA · 4th & 1Jeff Hafley chose Go for it at opp 31, Wk 2 Q1 0:49, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4MIA · 4th & 4Jeff Hafley chose Go for it at opp 49, Wk 3 Q2 9:25, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 5 · own 25 · Q1 6:359PuntPunt-1.57-1.32–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 16 · Q1 1:069Field goalField goal1.94–2.78✓good
4th & 18 · own 22 · Q2 8:119PuntPunt-2.76-1.49–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 34 · Q3 4:069Field goalField goal0.86-0.111.58✓good
4th & 3 · own 36 · Q4 14:559Go for itGo for it-0.41-0.79–✓converted
4th & 16 · opp 16 · Q4 9:309Field goalField goal0.64–2.78✓good
4th & 12 · own 33 · Q4 3:079Go for itnot graded-1.76-0.92–stopped
4th & 6 · own 27 · Q1 12:568PuntPunt-1.60-1.21–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 45 · Q1 7:078PuntPunt-1.00-0.46–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 13 · Q1 3:438Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.66–2.84✓good
4th & 16 · opp 34 · Q2 9:338Field goalField goal0.14-0.111.58✓good
4th & 9 · own 26 · Q3 12:048PuntPunt-2.00-1.27–✓punted
4th & 20 · own 25 · Q3 8:438PuntPunt-2.62-1.32–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 25 · Q4 6:458Field goalnot graded1.04–2.40missed
4th & 1 · opp 2 · Q1 1:467Go for itGo for it5.04–2.95✓converted
4th & 2 · own 23 · Q2 11:177PuntGo for it-0.86-1.43–−0.57punted
4th & 2 · opp 41 · Q2 3:147Go for itGo for it1.39-0.160.55✓converted
4th & 5 · own 35 · Q3 8:327PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.93-0.83–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 45 · Q3 0:147PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.46-0.46–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 26 · Q4 7:587PuntPunt-1.91-1.27–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 49 · Q4 2:007Go for itnot graded1.46-0.30–converted
4th & 9 · own 9 · Q1 4:405PuntPunt-3.19-2.36–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 46 · Q2 0:095Go for itnot graded1.64-0.24-0.34converted
4th & 10 · own 29 · Q3 13:145Puntnot graded-1.89-1.11–punted
4th & 11 · opp 11 · Q3 5:165Field goalField goal1.17–2.87✓good
4th & 9 · own 26 · Q1 11:044PuntPunt-2.00-1.27–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 44 · Q1 2:504PuntPunt-1.06-0.49–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 32 · Q2 12:264PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.92-0.96–−0.04punted
4th & 7 · own 31 · Q2 2:534PuntPunt-1.47-1.01–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 9 · Q3 11:584Field goalField goal2.45–2.90✓good
4th & 5 · own 38 · Q3 4:214PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.74-0.71–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 20 · Q4 5:484PuntPunt-2.31-1.61–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 49 · Q2 9:253Go for itGo for it0.26-0.30–✓stopped
4th & 13 · opp 45 · Q2 0:543Puntnot graded-0.43-0.22-0.16punted
4th & 17 · opp 18 · Q3 10:133Field goalField goal1.25–2.72✓good
4th & 9 · opp 42 · Q3 3:183PuntField goal0.02-0.170.38−0.55punted
4th & 5 · own 48 · Q4 6:003Go for itGo for it-0.12-0.37–✓stopped
4th & 1 · own 48 · Q4 2:033Go for itnot graded1.27-0.37–stopped
4th & 7 · opp 33 · Q1 10:322Field goalField goal0.79-0.111.70✓missed
4th & 1 · opp 31 · Q1 0:492Go for itGo for it2.62-0.111.92✓converted
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q2 10:002Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q2 0:022Field goalnot graded2.17–2.93good
4th & 7 · own 32 · Q3 10:582Puntnot graded-1.41-0.96–punted
4th & 15 · own 39 · Q3 3:552Go for itnot graded-1.53-0.67–stopped
4th & 7 · own 30 · Q3 1:412Puntnot graded-1.54-1.06–punted
4th & 20 · own 22 · Q4 7:072Puntnot graded-2.83-1.49–punted
4th & 9 · opp 44 · Q1 10:381PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.10-0.200.02−0.22punted
4th & 3 · own 31 · Q2 14:221PuntGo for it-0.72-1.01–−0.29punted
4th & 2 · opp 23 · Q2 4:121Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.58–2.52−0.07good
4th & 15 · opp 23 · Q3 0:111Field goalnot graded0.90–2.52missed
4th & 10 · own 20 · Q4 12:321Puntnot graded-2.49-1.61–punted
4th & 18 · own 48 · Q4 10:301Puntnot graded-1.06-0.37–punted
4th & 12 · opp 46 · Q4 4:041Go for itnot graded-0.44-0.24-0.34stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Unnecessary Roughness on MIA in Week 7, worth +7 points of win probability to NYJ.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Unnecessary RoughnessMIA → helped NYJ · Wk 7 Q4 11:25 · 0-B.Allen up the middle to MIA 1 for 10 yards (42-J.Woodard; 23-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on MIA-90-M.Herring, Unnecessary Roughness,…+6.6 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingMIA → helped DET · Wk 9 Q3 5:15 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left end ran ob at DET 25 for 8 yards (32-B.Branch). PENALTY on MIA-55-A.Brewer, Offensive…+6.3 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserMIA → helped KC · Wk 3 Q3 2:26 · (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short middle to 4-R.Rice. PENALTY on MIA-44-C.Robinson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards,…+6.2 WP
  4. 4TauntingMIA → helped LV · Wk 1 Q2 12:44 · (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep left to 1-T.Tucker (23-Z.Anderson). PENALTY on MIA-8-J.Brents, Taunting, 15 yards,…+6.0 WP
  5. 5Unsportsmanlike ConductMIA → helped NE · Wk 8 Q3 9:10 · 0-O.Gordon left end to MIA 40 for 5 yards (14-R.Spillane). PENALTY on MIA-0-O.Gordon, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards,…+5.7 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding1918544.2
False Start94517.5
Illegal Contact4206.9
Unnecessary Roughness106.6
Roughing the Passer1156.2
Defensive Offside4206.0
Taunting1156.0
Unsportsmanlike Conduct1155.7

Flags drawn

  1. 1Roughing the PasserNYJ → helped MIA · Wk 7 Q4 4:55 · 2-M.Willis pass short left to 7-C.Douglas for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Roughing the Passer, 8 yards,…+17.6 WP
  2. 2Illegal Use of HandsKC → helped MIA · Wk 3 Q1 7:09 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis scrambles left guard to KC 32 for 10 yards (17-A.Gilman). PENALTY on KC-20-N.Williams, Illegal Use of…+9.3 WP
  3. 3Unnecessary RoughnessCIN → helped MIA · Wk 5 Q1 9:48 · 47-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. PENALTY on…+7.6 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingKC → helped MIA · Wk 3 Q2 4:03 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass incomplete deep right to 21-K.Coleman. PENALTY on KC-38-L.Sneed, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced…+7.2 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessNE → helped MIA · Wk 8 Q2 0:40 · (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short middle to 1-J.Tolbert to NE 35 for 8 yards (7-C.Davis). MIA-6-M.Washington was injured during…+6.0 WP

Garbage Time Tax

20.9% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 13th most of 32

Bottom lineMalik Willis: 376 of 1,396 yards (27%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Malik WillisMIA · passing · 1,396 yds27%
Ollie Gordon IIMIA · rushing · 463 yds10%
Malik WashingtonMIA · receiving · 350 yds23%
Caleb DouglasMIA · receiving · 296 yds23%
Greg DulcichMIA · receiving · 270 yds21%

Our picks on the Dolphins

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Dolphins 32% at home against lions. 19-9 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Dolphins 31% at home against patriots. 24-19 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Dolphins 25% at jets. 28-25 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Dolphins 27% at home against bengals. 31-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Dolphins 16% at vikings. 10-15 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Dolphins 21% at home against chiefs. 24-10 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Dolphins 22% at 49ers. 13-35 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Miami Dolphins verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/dolphins/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.