Patriots 29, Bills 26: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Highmark StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NE	7	7	7	8	29
BUF	0	17	0	9	26

Home · 7-1BuffaloBills26

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 3:32 PM ET

The New England Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills 29-26 on Sun, Oct 4 at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Patriots 5-4, Bills 7-1. D.Maye (NE) led all players with +15.9 EPA on 43 dropbacks.

Who won Patriots vs Bills?

The New England Patriots won 29-26. By quarter: NE 7-7-7-8, BUF 0-17-0-9.

Who was the best player in Patriots vs Bills?

By expected points added: D.Maye (NE, +15.9 EPA on 43 dropbacks), K.Coleman (BUF, +8.9 EPA on 7 targets) and R.Doubs (NE, +5.7 EPA on 9 targets).

What was the turning point of Patriots vs Bills?

The biggest swing in win probability (31 points toward the Patriots) came in Q4 at 1:50: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Maye pass to R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Patriots 29, Bills 26: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-ne-at-buf (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Patriots51% success · +0.15 EPA/play

2926

Bills40% success · +0.05 EPA/play

NE 82% deserveddeserved 18% BUF

Patriots earned it: the snaps said Patriots by 5.1, a deserved win probability of 82%.

Deserved marginNE by 5.1

Real marginNE by 3

Luck pts NE+1.4

Luck pts BUF−2.0

The swingQ4 1:14 · BUF · −27 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive HoldingNE → helped BUF · Wk 4 Q2 1:48 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 2-D.Moore (25-M.Jones) [53-C.Elliss]. PENALTY on NE-25-M.Jones, Defensive…+8.8 WP
2Illegal Use of HandsBUF → helped NE · Wk 4 Q2 2:00 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 0-K.Coleman. PENALTY on BUF-73-D.Dawkins, Illegal Use of Hands, 10 yards,…+5.2 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NE · 4th & 2Mike Vrabel chose Punt at own 45, Wk 4 Q3 0:56, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.97 EP
2BUF · 4th & 3Joe Brady chose Punt at own 37, Wk 4 Q2 8:35, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.40 EP
3NE · 4th & 3Mike Vrabel chose Go for it at opp 29, Wk 4 Q1 7:40, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: converted.−0.31 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA144 plays, one strand4 lead changes · 13 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBill Vinovich10 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: BUF by 7 · Snaps: NE by 5.1Patriots covered; the snaps agree

29@26

Week 4

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Bills after the play8%what really happened

Q4 1:14 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 5-J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by 4-C.Woodson at NE 19. 4-C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (5-J.Palmer).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

BUF ▲NE ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+31%Q4 1:50 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Maye pass to R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
+21%Q4 1:14 · for NE(Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep left intended for J.Palmer INTERCEPTED by C.Woodson at NE 19. C.Woodson to NE 19 for no gain (J.Palmer).
+20%Q4 4:27 · for BUF(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to J.Palmer is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
+17%Q4 0:55 · for NED.Maye pass short right to H.Henry pushed ob at NE 31 for 12 yards (C.Bishop).
+13%Q4 5:06 · for BUF(Shotgun) J.Allen pass short left to K.Coleman to NE 34 for 24 yards (K.Byard).

Every drive, on the field

BUF attacks →← NE attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 5y · 1:31
Q1 13:29TD12p · 97y · 6:28
Q1 7:01TD13p · 62y · 7:46
Q2 14:15FUM8p · 30y · 4:07
Q2 10:08PUNT3p · 7y · 1:47
Q2 8:21TD6p · 63y · 2:43
Q2 5:38TD9p · 67y · 4:38
Q2 1:00PUNT3p · 0y · 0:31
Q2 0:29FUM2p · 30y · 0:13
Q2 0:16INT1p · 0y · 0:11
Q2 0:05FG1p · 0y · 0:03
Q2 0:02HALF0p · 0y · 0:02
Q3 15:00TD14p · 73y · 6:45
Q3 8:15PUNT4p · 10y · 1:52
Q3 6:23PUNT6p · 18y · 2:59
Q3 3:24PUNT3p · 6y · 0:55
Q3 2:29PUNT3p · 8y · 1:42
Q3 0:47FG10p · 60y · 4:40
Q4 11:07PUNT6p · 16y · 4:31
Q4 6:36TD5p · 80y · 2:09
Q4 4:27TD8p · 73y · 2:37
Q4 1:50INT3p · 16y · 0:45
Q4 1:05END6p · 12y · 1:05

Patriots10 drives4scoring drives (4 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Bills11 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)45%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:01Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short middle to R.Doubs for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN [G.Rousseau]. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.7–0
Q2
14:15Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Cook right end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.7–7
Q2
5:38TouchdownC.Lomu reported in as eligible. R.Stevenson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: NE-R.Gilliam has returned to the game. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.14–7
Q2
1:00TouchdownJ.Allen up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Bass extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.14–14
Q2
0:02Field goalT.Bass 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.14–17
Q3
8:15TouchdownC.Lomu reported in as eligible. D.Maye pass short right to R.Doubs for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.21–17
Q4
11:07Field goalT.Bass 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Ferguson, Holder-T.Doman.21–20
Q4
4:27Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Allen pass deep middle to K.Coleman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Allen pass to J.Palmer is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.21–26
Q4
1:50Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Maye pass to R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.29–26

Team stats

NEvsBUF

405Total yards340

262Passing yards249

143Rushing yards91

5.5Yards per play6.3

26First downs19

5-12 · 42%Third down6-12 · 50%

2-2Fourth down1-1

3-3Red zone TDs2-4

22/37Comp / att23/33

4.1Yards per carry4.6

2Turnovers2

1 (−7 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−4 yds)

6 for 35Penalties5 for 31

33:41Possession26:19

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.191+0.099

Dropback EPA+0.370+0.074

Rush EPA-0.075+0.147

Success rate51%40%

Explosive plays88

Plays7255

Who moved the needle

D.MayeDropbacks: 43+15.9

K.ColemanTargets: 7+8.9

R.DoubsTargets: 9+5.7

E.ChismTargets: 4+4.3

H.HenryTargets: 5+4.2

M.HollinsTargets: 4+4.0

Cost their side the most

J.PalmerTargets: 5-5.3

T.HendersonCarries: 14-1.9

R.StevensonCarries: 13-0.2

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	22/37	269	7.3	3	1	1-7	91.2	97.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drake MayeQB	8	54	6.8	0	26
Rhamondre StevensonRB	13	47	3.6	1	10
TreVeyon HendersonRB	14	42	3.0	0	11

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Hunter HenryTE	5	5	62	12.4	0	20
Romeo DoubsWR	6	9	58	9.7	2	15
Mack HollinsWR	3	4	53	17.7	0	26
Efton Chism IIIWR	2	4	42	21.0	1	23
Rhamondre StevensonRB	3	5	27	9.0	0	13
DeMario DouglasWR	2	3	15	7.5	0	10
Eli RaridonTE	1	2	12	12.0	0	12
TreVeyon HendersonRB	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Kyle WilliamsWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Robert SpillaneLB	8	5	0	0	0	0
Christian EllissLB	6	4	0	0	0	0
Carlton Davis IIICB	5	4	0	0	0	0
Marcus JonesCB	5	4	0	0	1	0
Elijah PonderLB	4	3	1	1	0	2
Darius MuasauLB	4	2	0	1	0	0
Erick HunterLB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Craig WoodsonS	3	1	0	0	1	0
Gabe JacasLB	3	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin ByardS	2	2	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3

Buffalo Bills

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Josh AllenQB	23/33	253	7.7	1	1	1-4	46.7	89.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
James Cook IIIRB	12	75	6.3	1	17
DJ MooreWR	1	6	6.0	0	6
Josh AllenQB	5	4	0.8	1	4
Ty JohnsonRB	1	3	3.0	0	3
Ray DavisRB	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Keon ColemanWR	6	7	116	19.3	1	34
Khalil ShakirWR	7	8	82	11.7	0	51
Dawson KnoxTE	2	2	13	6.5	0	8
DJ MooreWR	1	2	11	11.0	0	11
Ty JohnsonRB	2	2	9	4.5	0	9
James Cook IIIRB	2	2	8	4.0	0	6
Dalton KincaidTE	1	2	7	7.0	0	7
Ray DavisRB	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Joshua PalmerWR	1	4	3	3.0	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Dorian WilliamsLB	8	4	0	1	0	0
Terrel BernardLB	7	5	0	0	0	0
Cole BishopS	7	4	0	0	0	0
Davison IgbinosunCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
TJ ParkerLB	5	2	0.5	0	0	0
DeWayne CarterDT	4	3	0	0	0	0
Bradley ChubbLB	4	2	0	1	0	1
C.J. Gardner-Johnson	4	2	0	0	0	0
Greg RousseauLB	4	2	0	0	2	4
Maxwell HairstonCB	3	2	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Tyler BassPK	2/2	100.0	38	2/2	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bills run game vs Patriots run defense
The Bills' run game ranks 3rd in EPA per rush (+0.06, 78 rushes) against a Patriots run defense ranked 30th (+0.03 allowed, 69 rushes faced).
3rdBUF offense27 spots apart30thNE defense
2Bills pass rush vs Patriots pass protection
The Bills' pass rush ranks 9th in sack rate (7.3% of dropbacks, 124 dropbacks faced) and faces a Patriots pass protection ranked 29th (8.5% sacked, 106 dropbacks).
29thNE offense20 spots apart9thBUF defense
3Bills takeaway defense vs Patriots ball security
The Bills' takeaway defense ranks 14th in turnovers per game (1.0 takeaways a game, 3 games) and faces a Patriots ball security ranked 31st (2.7 giveaways a game, 3 games).
31stNE offense17 spots apart14thBUF defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Patriots have the ballNo big edge

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackBUF pass defense

27th-0.12106 dropbacks

+0.13 allowed124 dropbacks faced21st

NE run gameEPA per rushBUF run defense

24th-0.1872 rushes

-0.01 allowed75 rushes faced24th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bills have the ballEdge BUF · +27 ranks

BUF dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

3rd+0.34102 dropbacks

-0.09 allowed104 dropbacks faced6th

BUF run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

3rd+0.0678 rushes

BUF +27

+0.03 allowed69 rushes faced30th

Third downNo big edge

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateBUF third-down defense

21st37.5%40 third downs

40.5% allowed42 third downs faced15th

BUF third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

3rd56.3%32 third downs

34.3% allowed35 third downs faced6th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge BUF · +13 ranks

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateBUF red-zone defense

32nd14%7 trips

BUF +13

67% allowed12 trips faced19th

BUF red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

6th69%13 trips

BUF +10

63% allowed8 trips faced16th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NE · +9 ranks

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateBUF defense against big plays

18th9.0%178 plays

NE +9

11.6% allowed199 plays faced27th

BUF big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

1st15.6%180 plays

6.9% allowed173 plays faced6th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge BUF · +20 ranks

NE pass protectionsack rateBUF pass rush

29th8.5% sacked106 dropbacks

BUF +20

7.3% of dropbacks124 dropbacks faced9th

BUF pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

27th7.8% sacked102 dropbacks

NE +15

6.7% of dropbacks104 dropbacks faced12th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge BUF · +17 ranks

NE ball securityturnovers per gameBUF takeaway defense

31st2.7 giveaways a game3 games

BUF +17

1.0 takeaways a game3 games14th

BUF ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

24th1.7 giveaways a game3 games

NE +10

1.0 takeaways a game3 games14th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NE 3 games, 178 offensive and 173 defensive plays · BUF 3 games, 180 offensive and 199 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Corey KinerFB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

A.J. BrownWR→ Romeo Doubs

Walter RouseLG→ Ben Brown

Matt PryorRG→ Alijah Vera-Tucker

Christian BarmoreLDE→ Gabe Jacas

Christian GonzalezRCB→ Charles Woods

DJ MooreWR→ Joshua Palmer

Alec AndersonLG

T.J. SandersLDE→ DeWayne Carter

Ed OliverRDE→ Greg Gaines

Christian BenfordLCB→ Maxwell Hairston