Panthers 18, Browns 21: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Huntington Bank FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
CAR	0	3	6	9	18
CLE	0	10	0	11	21

Home · 5-4ClevelandBrowns21

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET

The Cleveland Browns beat the Carolina Panthers 21-18 on Sun, Sep 27 at Huntington Bank Field in Cleveland, OH (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Panthers 3-5, Browns 5-4. H.Fannin (CLE) led all players with +7.2 EPA on 9 targets.

Who won Panthers vs Browns?

The Cleveland Browns won 21-18. By quarter: CAR 0-3-6-9, CLE 0-10-0-11.

Who was the best player in Panthers vs Browns?

By expected points added: H.Fannin (CLE, +7.2 EPA on 9 targets), D.Watson (CLE, +5.8 EPA on 38 dropbacks) and B.Tremayne (CAR, +5.0 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Panthers vs Browns?

The biggest swing in win probability (36 points toward the Browns) came in Q4 at 1:48: (Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-Ja.Horn was injured during the play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Watson pass to D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Panthers 18, Browns 21: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-car-at-cle (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Panthers35% success · −0.13 EPA/play

1821

Browns37% success · −0.02 EPA/play

CAR 10% deserveddeserved 90% CLE

Browns earned it: the snaps said Browns by 7.0, a deserved win probability of 90%.

Deserved marginCLE by 7.0

Real marginCLE by 3

Luck pts CAR−1.1

Luck pts CLE−1.6

The swingQ4 1:55 · CLE · +23 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 44-H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-8-Ja.Horn was injured during the play.

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the PasserCAR → helped CLE · Wk 3 Q4 2:36 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback.…+16.9 WP
2Illegal ShiftCLE → helped CAR · Wk 3 Q4 2:41 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 19 for 5 yards (22-L.Ransom). PENALTY on CLE-11-M.Corley, Illegal…+10.7 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1CAR · 4th & 2Dave Canales chose Punt at own 44, Wk 3 Q1 6:00, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.94 EP
2CLE · 4th & 3Todd Monken chose Punt at own 42, Wk 3 Q1 8:41, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.52 EP
3CLE · 4th & 14Todd Monken chose Punt at opp 43, Wk 3 Q2 12:03, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA164 plays, one strand4 lead changes · 8 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewLand Clark19 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: CAR by 2.5 · Snaps: CLE by 7.0Browns covered; the snaps agree

18@21

Week 3

If the Panthers had converted that fourth-and-16

Panthers after the play3%what really happened

Q4 1:27 9-B.Young pass short left to 88-D.Waller to CAR 24 for 8 yards (26-M.Harden; 49-C.Schwesinger).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CLE ▲CAR ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+36%Q4 1:48 · for CLE(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-Ja.Horn was injured during the play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Watson pass to D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
+20%Q4 2:36 · for CLE(Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep right intended for K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by A.Evans (W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback. CLV-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on CAR-B.Okereke, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at CAR 29 - No Play.
+17%Q4 0:37 · for CAR(Shotgun) B.Young pass deep middle to B.Tremayne to CAR 42 for 20 yards (C.Schwesinger) [M.Collins].
+13%Q4 9:38 · for CAR(Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CAR 38 for -10 yards (T.Gipson).
+13%Q2 1:37 · for CLE(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short right to H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on CAR-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined. A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.

Every drive, on the field

CLE attacks →← CAR attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT5p · 4y · 3:00
Q1 12:00PUNT8p · 34y · 3:26
Q1 8:34PUNT4p · 25y · 2:43
Q1 5:51PUNT13p · 48y · 8:55
Q2 11:56DOWNS8p · 31y · 3:23
Q2 8:33FG7p · 18y · 2:50
Q2 5:43DOWNS4p · 9y · 2:07
Q2 3:36TD7p · 40y · 1:59
Q2 1:37FG9p · 56y · 1:10
Q2 0:27HALF1p · -1y · 0:27
Q3 15:00FUM0p · 0y · 0:11
Q3 14:49FG4p · 8y · 1:27
Q3 13:22PUNT3p · -3y · 2:25
Q3 10:57PUNT8p · 35y · 3:23
Q3 7:34PUNT3p · 5y · 1:34
Q3 6:00FG8p · 31y · 2:43
Q3 3:17PUNT3p · 1y · 1:07
Q3 2:10FG12p · 68y · 5:29
Q4 11:41FG7p · 44y · 4:11
Q4 7:30TD6p · 72y · 3:05
Q4 4:25TD8p · 65y · 2:37
Q4 1:48DOWNS4p · 2y · 0:31
Q4 1:17DOWNS4p · 7y · 0:16
Q4 1:01INT6p · 25y · 0:52
Q4 0:09END1p · -1y · 0:09

Panthers12 drives5scoring drives (1 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position0three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Browns11 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)36%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
5:43Field goalA.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.0–3
Q2
1:37Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short right to H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on CAR-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined. A.Szmyt extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.0–10
Q2
0:27Field goal R.Fitzgerald 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.3–10
Q3
13:22Field goalR.Fitzgerald 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.6–10
Q3
3:17Field goalR.Fitzgerald 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.9–10
Q4
11:41Field goalR.Fitzgerald 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.12–10
Q4
7:30Field goalA.Szmyt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.12–13
Q4
4:25Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to J.Metchie for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. C.Hubbard rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT FAILS. CAR-D.Lewis was injured during the play.18–13
Q4
1:48Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to H.Fannin for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR-Ja.Horn was injured during the play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Watson pass to D.Boston is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.18–21

Team stats

CARvsCLE

360Total yards259

262Passing yards127

98Rushing yards132

4.9Yards per play4.1

24First downs17

4-15 · 27%Third down5-15 · 33%

0-3Fourth down2-3

1-3Red zone TDs2-3

26/48Comp / att17/31

4.3Yards per carry4.4

1Turnovers1

3 (−29 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−17 yds)

7 for 63Penalties12 for 84

29:53Possession30:07

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.127-0.022

Dropback EPA-0.117+0.138

Rush EPA-0.148-0.294

Success rate35%37%

Explosive plays76

Plays7462

Who moved the needle

H.FanninTargets: 9+7.2

D.WatsonDropbacks: 38+5.8

B.TremayneTargets: 6+5.0

M.EvansTargets: 3+2.0

D.BostonTargets: 5+1.6

J.MetchieTargets: 5+1.5

Cost their side the most

B.YoungDropbacks: 50-5.8

D.WatsonCarries: 6-4.5

Q.JudkinsCarries: 18-3.9

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bryce YoungQB	26/48	291	6.1	1	1	3-29	40.3	70.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chuba HubbardRB	19	82	4.3	0	16
AJ DillonRB	4	16	4.0	0	11

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Brycen TremayneWR	4	6	83	20.8	0	31
Darren WallerTE	5	8	51	10.2	0	14
Tommy TrembleTE	3	4	41	13.7	0	17
Mitchell EvansTE	3	3	36	12.0	0	19
Chuba HubbardRB	4	4	28	7.0	0	30
John Metchie IIIWR	2	5	19	9.5	1	11
Jalen CokerWR	2	4	18	9.0	0	13
Tetairoa McMillanWR	2	5	17	8.5	0	12
David MooreWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
AJ DillonRB	1	1	-2	-2.0	0	-2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Lathan RansomS	8	5	0	0	1	0
Will Lee IIICB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Tyrel DodsonLB	6	1	0	0	0	0
Derrick BrownDT	5	5	0	0	1	0
Zakee WheatleyS	5	4	0	0	0	0
Tre'von MoehrigS	4	2	0	1	0	0
Bobby OkerekeLB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Akayleb EvansCB	4	1	0	0	1	0
Lee HunterDT	4	1	0	0	0	0
Princely UmanmielenLB	3	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ryan FitzgeraldPK	4/4	100.0	53	0/0	12

Cleveland Browns

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Deshaun WatsonQB	16/30	144	4.8	2	0	2-17	57.7	88.8
Shedeur SandersQB	1/1	0	0.0	0	0	0-0	4.6	79.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Quinshon JudkinsRB	18	70	3.9	11
Deshaun WatsonQB	11	45	4.1	21
Raheim SandersRB	1	17	17.0	17

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Harold Fannin Jr.TE	7	9	51	7.3	2	14
Denzel BostonWR	2	4	41	20.5	0	28
Raheim SandersRB	4	5	34	8.5	0	10
Quinshon JudkinsRB	2	2	9	4.5	0	9
KC ConcepcionWR	2	9	9	4.5	0	5
Michael BurtonFB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Quincy WilliamsLB	9	5	0	1	0	1
Mekhi BlackmonCB	8	6	0	0	1	0
Ronnie HickmanS	8	3	0	0	1	0
Mason GrahamDT	7	4	2	3	0	2
Carson SchwesingerLB	6	1	0	0	0	0
Emmanuel McNeil-WarrenS	5	0	0	0	0	0
Grant DelpitS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Denzel WardCB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Isaiah McGuireDE	3	2	1	2	0	1
Jared VerseDE	3	2	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andre SzmytPK	2/2	100.0	48	1/1	7

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Panthers dropback offense vs Browns pass defense
The Panthers' dropback offense ranks 5th in EPA per dropback (+0.31, 82 dropbacks) against a Browns pass defense ranked 20th (+0.15 allowed, 64 dropbacks faced).
5thCAR offense15 spots apart20thCLE defense
2Panthers pass rush vs Browns pass protection
The Panthers' pass rush ranks 17th in sack rate (6.5% of dropbacks, 77 dropbacks faced) and faces a Browns pass protection ranked 29th (10.8% sacked, 65 dropbacks).
29thCLE offense12 spots apart17thCAR defense

When the Panthers have the ballEdge CAR · +15 ranks

CAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCLE pass defense

5th+0.3182 dropbacks

CAR +15

+0.15 allowed64 dropbacks faced20th

CAR run gameEPA per rushCLE run defense

21st-0.1539 rushes

-0.02 allowed51 rushes faced23rd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Browns have the ballEdge CAR · +8 ranks

CLE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCAR pass defense

18th+0.0665 dropbacks

CAR +8

-0.08 allowed77 dropbacks faced10th

CLE run gameEPA per rushCAR run defense

30th-0.3437 rushes

+0.05 allowed60 rushes faced28th

Third downEdge CAR · +9 ranks

CAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCLE third-down defense

14th43.5%23 third downs

CAR +9

48.0% allowed25 third downs faced23rd

CLE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCAR third-down defense

28th28.6%21 third downs

51.9% allowed27 third downs faced26th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

CAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCLE red-zone defense

9th70%10 trips

50% allowed6 trips faced10th

CLE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCAR red-zone defense

31st20%5 trips

100% allowed4 trips faced31st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge CAR · +25 ranks

CAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCLE defense against big plays

7th11.6%121 plays

CAR +25

13.9% allowed115 plays faced32nd

CLE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCAR defense against big plays

27th5.9%102 plays

CAR +12

8.8% allowed137 plays faced15th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CAR · +12 ranks

CAR pass protectionsack rateCLE pass rush

9th4.9% sacked82 dropbacks

CAR +10

6.3% of dropbacks64 dropbacks faced19th

CLE pass protectionsack rateCAR pass rush

29th10.8% sacked65 dropbacks

CAR +12

6.5% of dropbacks77 dropbacks faced17th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge CAR · +13 ranks

CAR ball securityturnovers per gameCLE takeaway defense

14th1.0 giveaways a game2 games

CAR +9

0.5 takeaways a game2 games23rd

CLE ball securityturnovers per gameCAR takeaway defense

14th1.0 giveaways a game2 games

CAR +13

3.0 takeaways a game2 games1st

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: CAR 2 games, 121 offensive and 137 defensive plays · CLE 2 games, 102 offensive and 115 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jalen CokerWR→ Brycen Tremayne

Tershawn WhartonRDE→ Bobby Brown III

Devin LloydLILB→ Tyrel Dodson

Malcolm DeWalt IVLCB→ Jaycee Horn

Chau Smith-WadeNB→ Lathan Ransom

Nick ScottFS→ Zakee Wheatley

Michael BurtonFB→ Raheim Sanders

Easton Mascarenas-ArnoldWLB→ Mike Hall Jr.

Tyson CampbellRCB→ Mekhi Blackmon

AwayPanthers4 questionable · 6 changes