Scheme DNA
Every offense leaves a fingerprint: how often it throws when it doesn't have to, how much it moves before the snap, where it runs and how fast it plays. We read twelve of those traits for all 32 offenses and six for every defense, then placed them on one map. The most unusual playbook in the league right now: Bengals, most pass rate over expected, most early-down pass rate in the league.
Who calls games alike
↳Bottom lineThe most unusual offense, farthest from the middle: Bengals.
?How to read this chart
- One logo = one offense.
- Its position sums up 12 play-calling habits (how often it throws when it doesn't have to, shotgun, motion, play action, tempo and more).
- Close together = alike.
- Two teams near each other call games in a similar way; far apart means different playbooks. The center is the league's typical offense, so the farther from the middle, the more unusual.
- The directions:
- left means more screen rate, right more pass rate over expected; down means more no-huddle rate, up more early-down pass rate. Each axis is named after the habit that pulls hardest at that end.
- Tap a logo
- to draw lines to its three closest twins, with how alike they are in %.
The league's closest pairs
↳Bottom lineClosest pair right now: Commanders and Texans, 75% alike. Both take more deep shots and line up in shotgun more than most of the league; Commanders and Texans differ most in throws over the middle (21.8% vs 26.5%) and no-huddle rate (8.5% vs 4.5%).
?How to read this chart
- Each card is a pair of offenses
- that call games most alike. The two shapes are their fingerprints laid on top of each other (explained below): where they overlap, the habits match.
- The %
- is how alike they are across all 12 traits: 100% would be identical, 0% the most different pair in the league.
Commanders & Texans75%alike across 12 traitsBoth take more deep shots and line up in shotgun more than most of the league; Commanders and Texans differ most in throws over the middle (21.8% vs 26.5%) and no-huddle rate (8.5% vs 4.5%).
Packers & Texans74%alike across 12 traitsBoth take more deep shots and throw more over the middle than most of the league; Packers and Texans differ most in deep shots (18.3% vs 15.1%) and RPO rate (7.0% vs 4.3%).
Patriots & Jets74%alike across 12 traitsBoth throw less over the middle and huddle more than most of the league; Patriots and Jets differ most in deep shots (15.0% vs 11.5%) and early-down pass rate (51.8% vs 46.0%).
Lions & Raiders71%alike across 12 traitsBoth throw more over the middle and run inside more than most of the league; Lions and Raiders differ most in play action (31.1% vs 24.8%) and pre-snap motion (53.3% vs 62.5%).
Jaguars & Colts71%alike across 12 traitsBoth huddle more than most of the league; Jaguars and Colts differ most in tempo (39.5s vs 38.4s) and pass rate over expected (−2.8% vs +2.5%).
49ers & Jaguars70%alike across 12 traitsBoth run fewer RPOs and line up under center more than most of the league; 49ers and Jaguars differ most in tempo (38.0s vs 39.5s) and pre-snap motion (75.8% vs 65.7%).
Every offense, one glyph
?How to read this chart
- One flower = one offense.
- Each petal is one habit, always in the same place, clockwise from the top: pass rate over expected, early-down pass rate, shotgun rate, no-huddle rate, pre-snap motion, play action, screen rate, rpo rate, deep shots, middle of the field, outside runs, tempo.
- Petal length = rank in the league.
- A long petal means the team does it more than most of the 32 (for tempo, long means fast). The dashed ring is the league middle: petals past it are above average.
- Compare shapes, not colors.
- A lopsided flower is a team with a strong identity; a round, even one does a bit of everything.
49ersmost pre-snap motion, least shotgun rate in the league
Bearsmost play action, most middle of the field in the league
Bengalsmost pass rate over expected, most early-down pass rate in the league
Billsleast shotgun rate, least outside runs in the league
Broncosleast middle of the field, most outside runs in the league
Brownsmost shotgun rate, most outside runs in the league
Buccaneersleast pass rate over expected, least early-down pass rate in the league
Cardinalsleast rpo rate, least play action in the league
Chargersmost outside runs, least pass rate over expected in the league
Chiefsmost screen rate, most rpo rate in the leagueColtsmost pass rate over expected, most early-down pass rate in the leagueCommandersmost deep shots, least screen rate in the league
Cowboysleast pre-snap motion, least outside runs in the league
Dolphinsmost deep shots, most pre-snap motion in the league
Eaglesmost no-huddle rate, most shotgun rate in the league
Falconsmost screen rate, least early-down pass rate in the league
Giantsleast pre-snap motion, most deep shots in the leagueJaguarsslowest tempo, least rpo rate in the leagueJetsleast middle of the field, least pre-snap motion in the leagueLionsleast shotgun rate, most play action in the leaguePackersmost deep shots, most middle of the field in the league
Panthersmost rpo rate, fastest tempo in the leaguePatriotsleast no-huddle rate, most deep shots in the leagueRaidersmost middle of the field, least outside runs in the league
Ramsmost early-down pass rate, least rpo rate in the league
Ravensmost outside runs, most middle of the field in the league
Saintsfastest tempo, most no-huddle rate in the league
Seahawksmost outside runs, least shotgun rate in the league
Steelersslowest tempo, most rpo rate in the leagueTexansmost deep shots, most middle of the field in the league
Titansmost no-huddle rate, fastest tempo in the league
Vikingsmost play action, least pre-snap motion in the leagueThe leaderboard
?How to read this chart
- Pick a habit
- with the buttons (12 for offenses, 6 for defenses): the 32 teams reorder from most to least.
- Each row
- shows the team's value and how it compares with the league average shown for that habit. Jargon: pass rate over expected = how much more (or less) a team throws than the situation would predict; RPO = run-pass option; box = defenders lined up near the line against the run.
Broncos−0.9%24Bills−5.0%22Lions−3.3%26Vikings−5.4%5Steelers+2.5%16Browns−2.0%18Eagles−2.1%7Packers+1.1%12Patriots−1.3%19Cardinals−2.4%15Raiders−1.9%30Giants−8.5%14Saints−1.7%13Bears−1.3%27Falcons−8.0%1Bengals+9.0%17Commanders−2.0%849ers−0.3%4Chiefs+4.2%25Ravens−5.1%21Jaguars−2.8%10Cowboys−0.7%28Seahawks−8.0%29Dolphins−8.3%2Panthers+5.0%6Colts+2.5%23Titans−3.8%32Chargers−12.4%9Texans−0.3%3Rams+4.8%31Buccaneers−12.0%20Jets−2.7%How much the formation gives away
↳Bottom lineJaguars give away the most: 81% passes from shotgun against 25% under center, a 56-point gap.
?How to read this chart
- One row = one team,
- on neutral downs (game still close, not the last two minutes of a half).
- Two dots:
- the purple dot is how often the team throws when the quarterback lines up under center, the green dot how often it throws from shotgun. Further right = throws more.
- The line between them
- is the giveaway: the longer it is, the more a defense can guess run or pass just from the formation. Rows are sorted from the most predictable to the least.
Jaguars56 pts2Lions55 pts3Steelers50 pts4Cardinals48 pts5Saints47 pts6Bengals47 pts7Patriots46 pts8Giants46 pts9Texans45 pts10Raiders44 pts11Panthers44 pts12Colts44 pts13Commanders44 pts1449ers44 pts15Rams43 pts16Falcons43 pts17Cowboys43 pts18Eagles42 pts19Seahawks42 pts20Broncos42 pts21Vikings41 pts22Bears41 pts23Dolphins39 pts24Bills39 pts25Jets39 pts26Titans38 pts27Ravens37 pts28Browns36 pts29Buccaneers35 pts30Packers32 pts31Chiefs28 pts32Chargers28 ptsThe wider the gap, the more a defense learns from the alignment alone. Jaguars throw 81% from shotgun and 25% under center; Chargers are the hardest to read (60% against 32%).
MethodHow this is built
- Traits
- Twelve offensive and six defensive traits from the nflverse play-by-play and FTN charting (motion, play action, screens, RPO, blitzers, box counts). Charting covers the weeks published so far.
- Neutral situations
- Play-calling tendencies (pass rate over expected, early-down passing, formation tell, tempo) use only snaps with win probability between 20% and 80% in the first three quarters, outside the last two minutes of the half.
- Percentiles
- Each petal is the team's percentile among the 32. Tempo is inverted: a longer petal means a faster offense.
- Twins
- Every trait is standardized (z-score); two teams' similarity is their distance across all twelve, scaled so 100% would be identical and 0% the league's most different pair.
- The map
- The first two principal components of the twelve standardized traits. Axis labels name the trait that pulls hardest at each end.