Vikings 15, Lions 19: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · Ford FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
MIN	0	7	0	8	15
DET	3	3	6	7	19

Home · 6-2DetroitLions19

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:48 PM ET

The Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings 19-15 on Sun, Nov 1 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI (Week 8, 2026 season). Records after the game: Vikings 6-2, Lions 6-2. T.Hockenson (MIN) led all players with +6.5 EPA on 5 targets.

Who won Vikings vs Lions?

The Detroit Lions won 19-15. By quarter: MIN 0-7-0-8, DET 3-3-6-7.

Who was the best player in Vikings vs Lions?

By expected points added: T.Hockenson (MIN, +6.5 EPA on 5 targets), A.St. Brown (DET, +4.2 EPA on 8 targets) and J.Williams (DET, +1.0 EPA on 6 targets).

What was the turning point of Vikings vs Lions?

The biggest swing in win probability (16 points toward the Vikings) came in Q4 at 10:16: K.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Vikings 15, Lions 19: Week 8 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-01-min-at-det (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 8 issue →

Week 8EarnedGame file →

Vikings46% success · −0.09 EPA/play

1519

Lions48% success · −0.05 EPA/play

MIN 36% deserveddeserved 64% DET

Lions earned it: the snaps said Lions by 2.0, a deserved win probability of 64%.

Deserved marginDET by 2.0

Real marginDET by 4

Luck pts MIN+2.1

Luck pts DET+1.8

The swingQ4 10:16 · MIN · +16 pts of win probability. 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 3-J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (30-K.Dorsey).

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the PasserMIN → helped DET · Wk 8 Q1 12:07 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.St. Brown. PENALTY on MIN-50-L.Rodriguez, Roughing the Passer,…+7.9 WP
2Neutral Zone InfractionMIN → helped DET · Wk 8 Q2 0:28 · (Run formation) PENALTY on MIN-90-T.Ingram-Dawkins, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at DET 47 - No Play.+7.0 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1MIN · 4th & 5Kevin O'Connell chose Go for it at opp 25, Wk 8 Q4 14:34, down 5. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.79 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA139 plays, one strand4 lead changes · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCraig Wrolstad12 accepted flags in this game · 17.3 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: DET by 3 · Snaps: DET by 2.0Lions covered; the snaps say Vikings should have

15@19

Week 8

If the Vikings had converted that fourth-and-5

Vikings after the play23%what really happened

Q4 14:34 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Addison (4-D.Reed) [97-A.Hutchinson].

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DET ▲MIN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+16%Q4 10:16 · for MINK.Murray pass deep middle to J.Addison to DET 10 for 51 yards (K.Dorsey).
+14%Q4 8:44 · for MINK.Murray pass short middle to T.Hockenson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. K.Murray pass to J.Addison is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
+14%Q4 4:35 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.
+12%Q3 4:40 · for DETJ.Gibbs up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Gibbs rushes right end. ATTEMPT FAILS.
+10%Q4 3:06 · for DET(Shotgun) K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to J.Addison.

Every drive, on the field

DET attacks →← MIN attacks

Q1 15:00MISS5p · 27y · 1:52
Q1 13:08PUNT7p · 4y · 3:40
Q1 9:28PUNT4p · 16y · 2:07
Q1 7:21FG12p · 57y · 5:03
Q1 2:18TD7p · 74y · 2:53
Q2 14:25INT3p · 2y · 1:36
Q2 12:49PUNT3p · 2y · 1:28
Q2 11:21PUNT6p · 18y · 4:47
Q2 6:34PUNT3p · -7y · 1:28
Q2 5:06PUNT3p · 1y · 1:56
Q2 3:10INT4p · 37y · 1:23
Q2 1:47FG7p · 43y · 1:45
Q2 0:02HALF1p · -1y · 0:02
Q3 15:00MISS9p · 47y · 5:12
Q3 9:48PUNT3p · -12y · 2:15
Q3 7:33TD6p · 72y · 2:53
Q3 4:40DOWNS11p · 49y · 5:11
Q4 14:29PUNT3p · 5y · 1:49
Q4 12:40TD7p · 84y · 3:56
Q4 8:44TD7p · 69y · 4:09
Q4 4:35PUNT3p · 5y · 1:42
Q4 2:53END8p · 33y · 2:53

Vikings10 drives2scoring drives (2 TD)20%drives ending in pointsOWN 25avg starting field position4three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Lions10 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
2:18Field goalJ.Bates 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.0–3
Q2
14:25Touchdown(No Huddle) K.Murray pass short left to J.Jefferson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.7–3
Q2
0:02Field goalJ.Bates 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.7–6
Q3
4:40TouchdownJ.Gibbs up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Gibbs rushes right end. ATTEMPT FAILS.7–12
Q4
8:44TouchdownK.Murray pass short middle to T.Hockenson for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. K.Murray pass to J.Addison is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.15–12
Q4
4:35Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.15–19

Team stats

MINvsDET

266Total yards384

185Passing yards154

81Rushing yards230

5.3Yards per play5.6

15First downs24

3-10 · 30%Third down5-13 · 38%

0-1Fourth down0-0

2-2Red zone TDs1-3

17/29Comp / att18/25

4.5Yards per carry5.9

1Turnovers1

3 (−25 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−22 yds)

5 for 40Penalties7 for 76

24:17Possession35:43

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.092-0.047

Dropback EPA-0.012-0.144

Rush EPA-0.262+0.028

Success rate46%48%

Explosive plays611

Plays5067

Who moved the needle

T.HockensonTargets: 5+6.5

A.St. BrownTargets: 8+4.2

J.WilliamsTargets: 6+1.0

K.MurrayCarries: 3+0.9

S.VakiCarries: 11+0.1

K.MurrayDropbacks: 34-0.4

Cost their side the most

J.AddisonTargets: 9-6.2

J.GoffDropbacks: 29-4.2

J.MasonCarries: 8-3.6

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Kyler MurrayQB	17/29	210	7.2	2	1	3-25	38.0	89.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kyler MurrayQB	4	35	8.8	22
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	5	22	4.4	7
Jordan MasonRB	8	20	2.5	11
DeeJay DallasRB	1	4	4.0	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan AddisonWR	3	8	66	22.0	0	51
T.J. HockensonTE	4	5	58	14.5	1	22
Justin JeffersonWR	5	9	33	6.6	1	9
Ben YurosekTE	1	2	24	24.0	0	24
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	2	2	18	9.0	0	15
Jauan JenningsWR	2	2	11	5.5	0	6

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Joshua MetellusS	13	5	0	0	1	0
Eric WilsonLB	11	7	1	2	0	1
Byron Murphy Jr.CB	10	8	0	0	0	0
Blake CashmanLB	10	5	0	1	0	0
Andrew Van GinkelLB	4	2	2.5	2	0	3
Harrison SmithS	4	2	0	0	0	1
Theo JacksonS	4	2	0	1	0	0
Isaiah RodgersCB	4	1	0	0	0	0
Tyrion Ingram-DawkinsDE	3	0	0.5	0	0	2
Dallas TurnerLB	2	2	0	1	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	0/1	0.0	0	1/1	1

Detroit Lions

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jared GoffQB	18/25	176	7.0	1	1	4-22	59.9	88.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jahmyr GibbsRB	23	153	6.7	1	30
Sione VakiRB	11	65	5.9	0	12
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	1	10	10.0	0	10
Sam LaPortaTE	1	2	2.0	0	2
Jared GoffQB	3	0	0.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jameson WilliamsWR	4	6	70	17.5	1	46
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	7	8	46	6.6	0	13
Sam LaPortaTE	3	5	33	11.0	0	19
Jahmyr GibbsRB	2	4	15	7.5	0	13
Tyler ConklinTE	1	1	7	7.0	0	7
Sione VakiRB	1	1	5	5.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Jimmy RolderLB	5	2	1	2	1
Aidan HutchinsonDE	4	4	0	1	1
Roger McCrearyCB	4	3	0	0	0
Malcolm RodriguezLB	4	2	0	0	0
Chuck ClarkS	3	2	0	0	0
Rock Ya-SinCB	3	2	0	0	0
Brian BranchS	3	2	0	0	0
Trevor NowaskeLB	3	2	0	0	0
Skyler Gill-HowardDT	3	1	1	1	1
Jack CampbellLB	3	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake BatesPK	2/3	66.7	37	1/1	7

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 7 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Lions pass rush vs Vikings pass protection
The Lions' pass rush ranks 7th in sack rate (7.2% of dropbacks, 291 dropbacks faced) and faces a Vikings pass protection ranked 30th (9.0% sacked, 199 dropbacks).
30thMIN offense23 spots apart7thDET defense
2Vikings third-down defense vs Lions third-down offense
The Vikings' third-down defense ranks 2nd in third-down conversion rate (29.5% allowed, 78 third downs faced) and faces a Lions third-down offense ranked 21st (39.1%, 69 third downs).
21stDET offense19 spots apart2ndMIN defense
3Vikings big-play offense vs Lions defense against big plays
The Vikings' big-play offense ranks 16th in explosive-play rate (8.8%, 352 plays) against a Lions defense against big plays ranked 32nd (11.2% allowed, 420 plays faced).
16thMIN offense16 spots apart32ndDET defense

When the Vikings have the ballEdge DET · +10 ranks

MIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDET pass defense

24th-0.02199 dropbacks

+0.22 allowed291 dropbacks faced28th

MIN run gameEPA per rushDET run defense

28th-0.20153 rushes

DET +10

-0.07 allowed129 rushes faced18th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Lions have the ballEdge MIN · +12 ranks

DET dropback offenseEPA per dropbackMIN pass defense

3rd+0.28240 dropbacks

-0.22 allowed206 dropbacks faced1st

DET run gameEPA per rushMIN run defense

16th-0.08155 rushes

MIN +12

-0.16 allowed133 rushes faced4th

Third downEdge MIN · +19 ranks

MIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDET third-down defense

22nd39.1%87 third downs

48.2% allowed85 third downs faced29th

DET third-down offensethird-down conversion rateMIN third-down defense

21st39.1%69 third downs

MIN +19

29.5% allowed78 third downs faced2nd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

MIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDET red-zone defense

28th47%15 trips

68% allowed25 trips faced23rd

DET red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateMIN red-zone defense

4th70%27 trips

23% allowed13 trips faced1st

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge MIN · +16 ranks

MIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDET defense against big plays

16th8.8%352 plays

MIN +16

11.2% allowed420 plays faced32nd

DET big-play offenseexplosive-play rateMIN defense against big plays

7th10.6%395 plays

7.7% allowed339 plays faced5th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DET · +23 ranks

MIN pass protectionsack rateDET pass rush

30th9.0% sacked199 dropbacks

DET +23

7.2% of dropbacks291 dropbacks faced7th

DET pass protectionsack rateMIN pass rush

12th5.0% sacked240 dropbacks

MIN +11

10.2% of dropbacks206 dropbacks faced1st

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge MIN · +12 ranks

MIN ball securityturnovers per gameDET takeaway defense

4th0.7 giveaways a game6 games

MIN +12

1.0 takeaways a game6 games16th

DET ball securityturnovers per gameMIN takeaway defense

3rd0.5 giveaways a game6 games

1.7 takeaways a game6 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: MIN 6 games, 352 offensive and 339 defensive plays · DET 6 games, 395 offensive and 420 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Carson WentzQB→ Kyler Murray

Jordan MasonRB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Max BredesonFB→ DeeJay Dallas

Caleb BanksNT→ Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins

Blake MillerRT→ Cade Mays

Tyler LacyRDE→ Skyler Gill-Howard

K.J. BrittMLB→ Jack Campbell

Malcolm RodriguezSLB→ Trevor Nowaske

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.RCB→ Keith Abney II

AwayVikings1 next man up · 1 questionable · 4 changes