Colts 30, Chiefs 33: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20 · Arrowhead StadiumFinal/OT

Final

	1	2	3	4	OT	T
IND	7	13	0	7	3	30
KC	10	7	7	3	6	33

Home · 6-2Kansas CityChiefs33

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Indianapolis Colts 33-30 on Sun, Sep 20 at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO (Week 2, 2026 season). Records after the game: Colts 2-7, Chiefs 6-2. P.Mahomes (KC) led all players with +13.9 EPA on 51 dropbacks.

Who won Colts vs Chiefs?

The Kansas City Chiefs won 33-30. By quarter: IND 7-13-0-7-3, KC 10-7-7-3-6.

Who was the best player in Colts vs Chiefs?

By expected points added: P.Mahomes (KC, +13.9 EPA on 51 dropbacks), J.Downs (IND, +8.2 EPA on 9 targets) and T.Thornton (KC, +8.2 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Colts vs Chiefs?

The biggest swing in win probability (36 points toward the Colts) came in overtime at 10:00: S.Shrader kicks 64 yards from IND 35 to KC 1. B.Smith to KC 32 for 31 yards (J.Owens).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Colts 30, Chiefs 33: Week 2 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-20-ind-at-kc (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 2 issue →

Week 2EarnedGame file →

Colts48% success · +0.15 EPA/play

3033

Chiefs55% success · +0.23 EPA/play

IND 10% deserveddeserved 90% KC

Chiefs earned it: the snaps said Chiefs by 7.1, a deserved win probability of 90%.

Deserved marginKC by 7.1

Real marginKC by 3

Luck pts IND+1.1

Luck pts KC−1.4

The swingOT 5:04 · IND · +39 pts of win probability. 17-D.Jones pass deep middle to 13-L.Treadwell to KC 15 for 50 yards (20-N.Williams). FUMBLES (20-N.Williams), RECOVERED by KC-38-L.Sneed at KC 15. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling,…

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceKC → helped IND · Wk 2 Q2 11:18 · 67-L.Tenuta reported in as eligible. 17-D.Jones pass incomplete deep left to 13-L.Treadwell [56-G.Karlaftis]. PENALTY on…+9.6 WP
2Roughing the PasserKC → helped IND · Wk 2 Q1 9:34 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short middle to 2-J.Downs to KC 3 for 11 yards (38-L.Sneed). PENALTY on KC-21-J.Hicks, Roughing the…+7.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1IND · 4th & 4Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 48, Wk 2 Q3 5:48, down 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.45 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA163 plays, one strand5 lead changes · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCraig Wrolstad13 accepted flags in this game · 17.3 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: KC by 6 · Snaps: KC by 7.1Colts covered; the snaps say Chiefs should have

30@33

Week 2Changes the winner

If the 40-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Colts after the play0%what really happened

Q5 0:01 7-H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

KC ▲IND ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4OT

The five biggest swings

+36%OT 10:00 · for INDS.Shrader kicks 64 yards from IND 35 to KC 1. B.Smith to KC 32 for 31 yards (J.Owens).
+36%Q4 0:03 · for KC(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short middle to R.Rice to IND 23 for 31 yards (C.Taylor-Britt; H.Wohler).
+35%OT 5:04 · for INDDaniel Jones Pass Complete for 48 Yds to Laquon Treadwell
+22%OT 8:38 · for KC(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep right to T.Thornton to IND 40 for 30 yards (H.Wohler).
+20%OT 1:30 · for KCP.Mahomes pass short left to K.Walker to IND 24 for 22 yards (C.Bynum).

Every drive, on the field

KC attacks →← IND attacks

Q1 15:00TD11p · 65y · 6:35
Q1 8:25FG6p · 36y · 2:16
Q1 6:09INT2p · 4y · 0:51
Q1 5:18TD2p · 16y · 0:44
Q1 4:34FG11p · 34y · 4:46
Q2 14:48MISS5p · 37y · 2:06
Q2 12:42FG6p · 28y · 2:58
Q2 9:44TD12p · 70y · 7:19
Q2 2:25TD6p · 72y · 1:26
Q2 0:59PUNT3p · 0y · 0:24
Q2 0:35HALF1p · 1y · 0:35
Q3 15:00TD14p · 80y · 6:59
Q3 8:01PUNT4p · 21y · 2:22
Q3 5:39FG13p · 81y · 6:24
Q4 14:15TD13p · 64y · 8:38
Q4 5:37PUNT5p · 16y · 2:22
Q4 3:15PUNT7p · 31y · 2:51
Q4 0:24HALF5p · 61y · 0:24
Q5 10:00FG11p · 55y · 4:51
Q5 5:09FG5p · 45y · 1:58
Q5 3:11FG7p · 46y · 3:11

Colts9 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position0three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Chiefs10 drives7scoring drives (3 TD)70%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:25TouchdownD.Jones pass short middle to T.Warren for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.7–0
Q1
6:09Field goalH.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–3
Q1
4:34Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to T.Kelce for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.7–10
Q2
14:48Field goalS.Shrader 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.10–10
Q2
9:44Field goalS.Shrader 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.13–10
Q2
2:25Touchdown(Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass short right to X.Worthy for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.13–17
Q2
0:59TouchdownJ.Taylor right end for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.20–17
Q3
8:01TouchdownM.Caliendo and K.Tonga reported in as eligible. P.Mahomes pass short right to J.Royals for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. H.Butker extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.20–24
Q4
14:15Field goalH.Butker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.20–27
Q4
5:37TouchdownJ.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.27–27
OT
5:09Field goalH.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.27–30
OT
3:11Field goalS.Shrader 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.30–30
OT
0:00Field goal H.Butker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Winchester, Holder-M.Araiza.30–33

Team stats

INDvsKC

329Total yards523

210Passing yards371

119Rushing yards152

5.2Yards per play6.7

24First downs29

5-12 · 42%Third down5-13 · 38%

2-2Fourth down2-2

2-3Red zone TDs3-5

22/31Comp / att32/47

3.7Yards per carry5.2

1Turnovers0

0Sacks allowed2 (−11 yds)

5 for 30Penalties8 for 86

33:00Possession37:00

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.154+0.229

Dropback EPA+0.125+0.273

Rush EPA+0.187+0.146

Success rate48%55%

Explosive plays69

Plays6378

Who moved the needle

P.MahomesDropbacks: 51+13.9

J.DownsTargets: 9+8.2

T.ThorntonTargets: 4+8.2

T.KelceTargets: 11+5.1

D.JonesDropbacks: 33+4.1

J.TaylorCarries: 24+3.8

Cost their side the most

K.AllenTargets: 5-7.6

K.WalkerTargets: 10-0.5

T.WarrenTargets: 7-0.1

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	22/31	210	6.8	1	1	0-0	69.2	86.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	24	92	3.8	2	24
Deion BurksWR	2	14	7.0	0	10
Daniel JonesQB	3	10	3.3	0	5
Tyler WarrenTE	1	3	3.0	0	3
Seth McGowanRB	2	0	0.0	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Josh DownsWR	7	9	72	10.3	0	20
Laquon TreadwellWR	3	3	61	20.3	0	48
Jonathan TaylorRB	4	4	40	10.0	0	15
Tyler WarrenTE	6	7	21	3.5	1	8
Alec PierceWR	1	1	11	11.0	0	11
Keenan AllenWR	1	5	5	5.0	0	5
Drew OgletreeTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	14	7	0	1	0	0
Cam BynumS	9	5	0	0	0	0
Hunter WohlerS	8	3	0	0	0	0
Sauce GardnerCB	6	4	0	0	1	0
Jaylon CarliesLB	6	3	0	0	0	0
Justin WalleyCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Bryce BoettcherLB	5	2	0	0	0	0
DeForest BucknerDT	5	1	1	1	1	1
Cam Taylor-BrittCB	5	1	0	0	0	0
Laiatu LatuDE	4	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	3/3	100.0	49	3/3	12

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Patrick MahomesQB	32/47	382	8.1	3	0	2-11	82.8	114.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	24	117	4.9	19
Patrick MahomesQB	2	17	8.5	13
Emmett JohnsonRB	2	15	7.5	8
Khyiris TongaDT	1	3	3.0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Travis KelceTE	9	11	101	11.2	1	18
Tyquan ThorntonWR	4	4	86	21.5	0	45
Rashee RiceWR	4	6	83	20.8	0	31
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	6	10	61	10.2	0	22
Xavier WorthyWR	5	7	25	5.0	1	16
Emmett JohnsonRB	2	2	20	10.0	0	12
Jalen RoyalsWR	2	2	6	3.0	1	5
Noah GrayTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Nick BoltonLB	13	6	1	0	0
Jaden HicksS	10	5	1	0	0
Drue TranquillLB	8	4	2	1	0
L'Jarius SneedCB	7	4	0	1	0
Chris JonesDT	6	3	0	0	1
Nohl WilliamsCB	5	4	1	1	0
George KarlaftisDE	5	2	0	0	0
Alohi GilmanS	5	1	0	1	0
Peter WoodsDT	3	0	0	0	0
Cole ChristiansenLB	2	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Harrison ButkerPK	4/5	80.0	46	3/3	15

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jalen FarmerLG→ Quenton Nelson

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

Jaylahn TuimoloauLDE→ Arden Key

Adetomiwa AdebaworeRDT→ DeForest Buckner

CJ AllenMLB→ Jaylon Carlies

Bryce BoettcherSLB→ Jerry Tillery

Ben VanSumerenFB→ Emmett Johnson

Cyrus AllenWR→ Tyquan Thornton

Jeffrey BassaSLB→ Ashton Gillotte

Jadon CanadyNB→ Kristian Fulton

Mansoor DelaneRCB→ L'Jarius Sneed