Colts 30, Commanders 13: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Tottenham Hotspur StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
IND	0	10	10	10	30
WSH	6	0	7	0	13

Home · 2-5-1WashingtonCommanders13

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 8:46 PM ET

The Indianapolis Colts beat the Washington Commanders 30-13 on Sun, Oct 4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Colts 2-7, Commanders 2-5-1. D.Brown (WAS) led all players with +6.0 EPA on 4 targets.

Who won Colts vs Commanders?

The Indianapolis Colts won 30-13. By quarter: IND 0-10-10-10, WSH 6-0-7-0.

Who was the best player in Colts vs Commanders?

By expected points added: D.Brown (WAS, +6.0 EPA on 4 targets), J.Taylor (IND, +3.6 EPA on 20 carries) and D.Jones (IND, +2.7 EPA on 4 carries).

What was the turning point of Colts vs Commanders?

The biggest swing in win probability (12 points toward the Commanders) came in Q3 at 10:39: (Shotgun) A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Colts 30, Commanders 13: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-ind-at-wsh (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Colts42% success · −0.04 EPA/play

3013

Commanders28% success · −0.25 EPA/play

IND 95% deserveddeserved 5% WSH

Colts earned it: the snaps said Colts by 8.9, a deserved win probability of 95%.

Deserved marginIND by 8.9

Real marginIND by 17

Luck pts IND−2.3

Luck pts WSH0.0

The swingQ3 10:47 · WAS · +13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 16-A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to 13-T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Unnecessary RoughnessWAS → helped IND · Wk 4 Q2 5:13 · (Shotgun) 17-D.Jones pass short right to 2-J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (94-D.Payne). PENALTY on WAS-2-A.Robertson, Unnecessary…+8.4 WP
2Illegal Blindside BlockWAS → helped IND · Wk 4 Q1 5:31 · 8-R.Sanchez punts 59 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 83-J.Lane to WAS 31 for 14 yards (38-J.Owens). ** Injury Update:…+3.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1IND · 4th & 1Shane Steichen chose Punt at own 37, Wk 4 Q1 0:27, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.34 EP
2WAS · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Punt at own 33, Wk 4 Q1 2:43, up 6. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.69 EP
3WAS · 4th & 2Dan Quinn chose Field goal at opp 13, Wk 4 Q1 13:01, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.47 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA145 plays, one strand1 lead change · 7 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlan Eck11 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: IND by 4.5 · Snaps: IND by 8.9Colts covered; the snaps agree

30@13

Week 4Changes the winner

If the 48-yard kick had missed

Commanders after the play40%what really happened

Q2 0:03 3-S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

WSH ▲IND ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+12%Q3 10:39 · for WSH(Shotgun) A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.
+11%Q1 14:50 · for WSH(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at IND 24 for -8 yards (O.Oweh). FUMBLES (O.Oweh) [O.Oweh], touched at IND 24, RECOVERED by WAS-O.Oweh at IND 21.
+9%Q1 8:28 · for WSH(Shotgun) M.Mariota pass short left to J.Croskey-Merritt pushed ob at IND 7 for 35 yards (A.Davis-Gaither).
+9%Q2 5:13 · for IND(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to J.Downs to WAS 25 for 5 yards (D.Payne).PENALTY on WAS-A.Robertson, Unnecessary Roughness, 12 yards, enforced at WAS 25.
+8%Q3 14:17 · for IND(Shotgun) A.Kaliakmanis pass short right intended for A.Williams INTERCEPTED by J.Carlies [A.Adebawore] at WAS 27. J.Carlies pushed ob at WAS 20 for 7 yards (J.Conerly).

Every drive, on the field

WSH attacks →← IND attacks

Q1 15:00FUM2p · -8y · 0:22
Q1 14:38FG4p · 8y · 1:41
Q1 12:57PUNT3p · 7y · 2:18
Q1 10:39FG8p · 70y · 4:18
Q1 6:21PUNT3p · 2y · 1:01
Q1 5:20PUNT5p · 20y · 2:44
Q1 2:36PUNT5p · 19y · 2:16
Q1 0:20PUNT6p · 12y · 2:44
Q2 12:36INT7p · 17y · 2:43
Q2 9:53DOWNS4p · 9y · 1:23
Q2 8:30TD9p · 46y · 5:07
Q2 3:23PUNT5p · 23y · 2:14
Q2 1:09FG8p · 51y · 1:09
Q3 15:00INT3p · -7y · 0:51
Q3 14:09TD4p · 20y · 1:24
Q3 12:45TD5p · 70y · 2:06
Q3 10:39FG7p · 32y · 3:36
Q3 7:03PUNT4p · 40y · 2:13
Q3 4:50PUNT4p · 12y · 1:39
Q3 3:11PUNT3p · 2y · 1:36
Q3 1:35TD9p · 52y · 4:57
Q4 11:38DOWNS7p · 21y · 3:28
Q4 8:10FG5p · 20y · 2:22
Q4 5:48DOWNS9p · 25y · 4:02
Q4 1:46END3p · -1y · 1:46

Colts12 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 38avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Commanders12 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)25%drives ending in pointsOWN 28avg starting field position1three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
12:57Field goalD.Stevens 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.0–3
Q1
6:21Field goal D.Stevens 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.0–6
Q2
3:23TouchdownL.Tenuta reported in as eligible. J.Taylor left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.7–6
Q2
0:00Field goal S.Shrader 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.10–6
Q3
12:45TouchdownJ.Taylor right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.17–6
Q3
10:39Touchdown(Shotgun) A.Kaliakmanis pass deep left to T.Burks for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Stevens extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Ott, Holder-T.Way.17–13
Q3
7:03Field goal S.Shrader 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.20–13
Q4
11:38Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Jones right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.27–13
Q4
5:48Field goal S.Shrader 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.30–13

Team stats

INDvsWSH

257Total yards317

129Passing yards217

128Rushing yards100

3.9Yards per play5.2

17First downs12

5-16 · 31%Third down2-15 · 13%

1-1Fourth down1-4

3-3Red zone TDs0-2

19/34Comp / att18/37

4.3Yards per carry4.5

2Turnovers1

2 (−14 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−15 yds)

1 for 5Penalties10 for 84

30:40Possession29:20

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.086-0.250

Dropback EPA-0.371-0.241

Rush EPA+0.281-0.267

Success rate42%28%

Explosive plays55

Plays6461

Who moved the needle

D.BrownTargets: 4+6.0

J.TaylorCarries: 20+3.6

D.JonesCarries: 4+2.7

T.WarrenTargets: 5+2.3

L.TreadwellTargets: 6+2.3

A.EkelerCarries: 4+1.7

Cost their side the most

D.JonesDropbacks: 36-13.4

A.KaliakmanisDropbacks: 36-10.6

A.WilliamsTargets: 8-6.7

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	19/34	143	4.2	0	1	2-14	17.2	53.9

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	20	95	4.8	2	12
Seth McGowanRB	6	31	5.2	0	11
Daniel JonesQB	4	2	0.5	1	4

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Laquon TreadwellWR	5	6	42	8.4	13
Tyler WarrenTE	5	5	41	8.2	13
Ashton DulinWR	3	6	29	9.7	23
Josh DownsWR	3	4	16	5.3	9
Seth McGowanRB	1	2	7	7.0	7
Deion BurksWR	1	2	6	6.0	6
Jonathan TaylorRB	1	4	2	2.0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Justin WalleyCB	8	5	1	1	0	1
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	8	5	0	0	0	0
Grover StewartDT	6	2	0	2	0	0
Jaylon CarliesLB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Bryce BoettcherLB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Jerry TilleryDT	5	1	0	1	0	0
DeForest BucknerDT	4	2	0	1	1	3
Austin AjiakeLB	4	2	0	0	0	0
Caden CurryLB	4	2	0	0	0	0
A.J. HaulcyS	3	2	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	3/3	100.0	52	3/3	12

Washington Commanders

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Athan KaliakmanisQB	15/33	186	5.6	1	1	1-9	21.6	60.9
Marcus MariotaQB	3/4	46	11.5	0	0	1-6	88.8	112.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Marcus MariotaQB	1	35	35.0	35
Austin EkelerRB	4	29	7.3	10
Athan KaliakmanisQB	3	16	5.3	9
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB	9	15	1.7	6
Craig ReynoldsRB	2	4	2.0	4
Kaytron AllenRB	3	1	0.3	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Dyami BrownWR	3	4	65	21.7	0	48
Treylon BurksWR	1	3	47	47.0	1	47
Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB	2	4	35	17.5	0	35
Stefon DiggsWR	5	9	35	7.0	0	10
Antonio WilliamsWR	3	8	21	7.0	0	9
Brandon ColemanG	1	1	13	13.0	0	13
Austin EkelerRB	1	2	11	11.0	0	11
Chig OkonkwoTE	2	4	5	2.5	0	3
Colson YankoffTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Amik RobertsonCB	9	7	0	0	1	0
Jeremy ReavesS	8	4	0	0	0	0
Sonny StylesLB	8	4	0	0	0	0
Rasul DouglasCB	6	5	0	0	1	0
Quan MartinS	5	3	0	0	0	0
Frankie LuvuLB	5	1	0	1	0	0
Daron PayneDT	4	3	0	0	0	2
K'Lavon ChaissonLB	4	0	0.5	0	0	1
Javon KinlawDT	3	3	0	0	2	0
Percy ButlerS	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Drew StevensPK	2/2	100.0	31	1/1	7

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Commanders ball security vs Colts takeaway defense
The Commanders' ball security ranks 1st in turnovers per game (0.3 giveaways a game, 3 games) against a Colts takeaway defense ranked 30th (0.3 takeaways a game, 3 games).
1stWSH offense29 spots apart30thIND defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Commanders dropback offense vs Colts pass defense
The Commanders' dropback offense ranks 13th in EPA per dropback (+0.13, 116 dropbacks) against a Colts pass defense ranked 28th (+0.23 allowed, 111 dropbacks faced).
13thWSH offense15 spots apart28thIND defense
3Commanders pass protection vs Colts pass rush
The Commanders' pass protection ranks 3rd in sack rate (2.6% sacked, 116 dropbacks) against a Colts pass rush ranked 17th (6.3% of dropbacks, 111 dropbacks faced).
3rdWSH offense14 spots apart17thIND defense

When the Colts have the ballNo big edge

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackWSH pass defense

29th-0.15108 dropbacks

+0.25 allowed116 dropbacks faced29th

IND run gameEPA per rushWSH run defense

4th+0.0679 rushes

-0.30 allowed53 rushes faced3rd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Commanders have the ballEdge WSH · +15 ranks

WSH dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

13th+0.13116 dropbacks

WSH +15

+0.23 allowed111 dropbacks faced28th

WSH run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

21st-0.1482 rushes

WSH +10

+0.08 allowed78 rushes faced31st

Third downEdge IND · +10 ranks

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion rateWSH third-down defense

16th40.5%37 third downs

IND +8

47.1% allowed34 third downs faced24th

WSH third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

20th38.1%42 third downs

IND +10

37.5% allowed32 third downs faced10th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge IND · +16 ranks

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateWSH red-zone defense

9th67%9 trips

IND +16

75% allowed12 trips faced25th

WSH red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

5th70%10 trips

WSH +14

67% allowed12 trips faced19th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play rateWSH defense against big plays

12th9.6%187 plays

9.5% allowed169 plays faced17th

WSH big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

25th7.6%198 plays

10.6% allowed189 plays faced22nd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge WSH · +14 ranks

IND pass protectionsack rateWSH pass rush

14th5.6% sacked108 dropbacks

IND +11

4.3% of dropbacks116 dropbacks faced25th

WSH pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

3rd2.6% sacked116 dropbacks

WSH +14

6.3% of dropbacks111 dropbacks faced17th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge WSH · +29 ranks

IND ball securityturnovers per gameWSH takeaway defense

26th2.0 giveaways a game3 games

WSH +12

1.0 takeaways a game3 games14th

WSH ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game3 games

WSH +29

0.3 takeaways a game3 games30th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: IND 3 games, 187 offensive and 189 defensive plays · WSH 3 games, 198 offensive and 169 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Deion BurksWR→ Josh Downs

Jalen FarmerLG→ Jalen Travis

Luke TenutaRT→ Quenton Nelson

CJ AllenMLB→ Jaylon Carlies

Bryce BoettcherSLB→ DeForest Buckner

Jayden DanielsQB→ Athan Kaliakmanis

Rachaad WhiteRB→ Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Nick AllegrettiC→ Matt Gulbin

Sam CosmiRG→ Lucas Patrick

Charles OmenihuLDE→ Daron Payne

Dorance ArmstrongSLB→ K'Lavon Chaisson