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49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful17 min agoInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoSaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score44 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out50 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score54 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending SurgeryInjuryMaliek Collins: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryJoe Cardona: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryA.J. Brown: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable1 h agoInjuryDamien Lewis: Out → Questionable1 h agoPro Football RumorsEagles To Trade Arnold Ebiketie To BengalsESPNSources: Jaguars telling teams they aren't trading WR Brian Thomas Jr.
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 · NFC North · through Week 9

Lions logoDetroit LionsThe Verdict

Lions are 6-2; the play says 4.7 wins. That record is running 1.3 wins ahead of how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes. They are 4-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Dan Campbell kicked away 1 of 5 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 3rd of 32+1.36-2 real · 4.7 deserved · 4.8 Pythagorean
Luck points · 1st of 32+18.6fumble bounces +5.5 · opponents' kicks +13.1
Chicken Index · 32nd of 3220%Dan Campbell · 2.3 expected points lost on 38 graded calls
Flags net · 2nd of 32+81.4 WP56 flags for 447 yards against · 52 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Lions logoLions44% success · +0.01 EPA/play
199
Dolphins logoDolphins29% success · −0.21 EPA/play

Lions earned it: the snaps said Lions by 7.5, a deserved win probability of 92%.

Deserved marginDET by 7.5
Real marginDET by 10
Luck pts DET+1.6
Luck pts MIA−1.0

The swingQ1 5:14 · DET · −18 pts of win probability. 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 14-A.St. Brown INTERCEPTED by 3-C.Johnson (9-J.Uche) [9-J.Uche] at MIA 40. 3-C.Johnson to DET 39 for 21 yards (14-A.St. Brown).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games4-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+5.5 ptsKept 6 of 9 own fumbles; won 2 of 4 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+13.1 ptsOpponents made 8 of 14 field goals against an expected 11.7, and 17 of 20 extra points.
Own kicking+1.6 ptsMade 16 of 17 field goals against 15.5 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.03213th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-2Our pregame model in Lions games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Dan Campbell · 38 graded fourth downs · went for it 17×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 1.9 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1DET · 4th & 3Dan Campbell chose Punt at own 45, Wk 1 Q4 13:12, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.61 EP
  2. 2DET · 4th & 9Dan Campbell chose Punt at opp 42, Wk 5 Q1 0:28, down 7. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
  3. 3DET · 4th & 7Dan Campbell chose Go for it at own 30, Wk 9 Q2 14:55, tied. Model: Punt (lean). Result: converted.−0.48 EP
  4. 4DET · 4th & 3Dan Campbell chose Go for it at opp 31, Wk 9 Q1 11:36, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: converted.−0.25 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1DET · 4th & 1Dan Campbell chose Go for it at opp 8, Wk 9 Q3 1:25, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  2. 2DET · 4th & 1Dan Campbell chose Go for it at opp 38, Wk 5 Q2 9:38, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
  3. 3DET · 4th & 3Dan Campbell chose Go for it at opp 47, Wk 5 Q2 13:37, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  4. 4DET · 4th & 4Dan Campbell chose Go for it at opp 8, Wk 5 Q2 4:55, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 3 · opp 31 · Q1 11:369Go for itField goal1.67-0.111.92−0.25converted
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q1 8:259Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 7 · own 30 · Q2 14:559Go for itPunt-1.54-1.06–−0.48converted
4th & 16 · own 35 · Q2 12:279PuntPunt-1.82-0.83–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 22 · Q2 3:339Field goalField goal1.24–2.57✓good
4th & 10 · opp 14 · Q3 9:179Field goalField goal1.99–2.82✓good
4th & 1 · opp 8 · Q3 1:259Go for itGo for it4.30–2.91✓touchdown
4th & 7 · opp 25 · Q4 4:319Field goalnot graded1.32–2.40good
4th & 1 · opp 13 · Q4 1:539Go for itnot graded3.92–2.84converted
4th & 23 · opp 49 · Q1 9:358PuntPunt-1.00-0.30–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 7 · Q1 2:218Field goalGo for it (toss-up)3.08–2.92−0.17good
4th & 3 · own 26 · Q2 6:458PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.04-1.27–−0.23punted
4th & 9 · 50 · Q2 3:178PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.48-0.32–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 28 · Q3 9:548Field goalField goal1.41–2.19✓missed
4th & 5 · own 30 · Q4 12:488PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.25-1.06–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 22 · Q2 12:407Field goalField goal1.53–2.57✓good
4th & 17 · own 38 · Q2 9:267PuntPunt-1.67-0.71–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 6 · Q3 1:097Go for itGo for it (toss-up)3.12–2.92✓stopped
4th & 9 · own 44 · Q4 13:517PuntPunt-0.85-0.49–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 24 · Q4 4:537Go for itnot graded-0.21-1.38–stopped
4th & 17 · own 24 · Q1 13:085PuntPunt-2.59-1.38–✓punted
4th & 13 · own 23 · Q1 3:465PuntPunt-2.48-1.43–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 42 · Q1 0:285PuntField goal0.02-0.170.38−0.55punted
4th & 3 · opp 47 · Q2 13:375Go for itGo for it0.65-0.26-0.53✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 38 · Q2 9:385Go for itGo for it2.15-0.131.03✓touchdown
4th & 4 · opp 8 · Q2 4:555Go for itGo for it3.32–2.91✓touchdown
4th & 7 · opp 27 · Q2 0:575Field goalnot graded1.19–2.27good
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q3 1:075Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95touchdown
4th & 5 · own 33 · Q4 0:345Puntnot graded-1.06-0.92–punted
4th & 12 · opp 36 · Q1 12:094Field goalField goal0.20-0.121.32✓good
4th & 6 · own 15 · Q1 5:594PuntPunt-2.41-1.93–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 25 · Q2 12:414Field goalField goal1.32–2.40✓good
4th & 6 · opp 8 · Q3 6:244Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.83–2.91✓good
4th & 19 · opp 48 · Q4 14:494PuntPunt-0.84-0.28–✓punted
4th & 20 · opp 25 · Q4 7:104Go for itnot graded0.76–2.40stopped
4th & 5 · opp 10 · Q4 4:054Go for itnot graded2.98–2.89converted
4th & 13 · own 10 · Q4 1:294Go for itnot graded-3.41-2.29–stopped
4th & 17 · own 48 · Q1 8:213PuntPunt-1.03-0.37–✓punted
4th & 19 · own 38 · Q1 0:233PuntPunt-1.73-0.71–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 12 · Q2 9:383Field goalField goal2.33–2.86✓good
4th & 2 · opp 9 · Q2 1:473Go for itnot graded3.60–2.90converted
4th & 1 · opp 45 · Q4 8:373Go for itnot graded1.71-0.22-0.16stopped
4th & 15 · own 30 · Q1 7:162PuntPunt-2.11-1.06–✓punted
4th & 22 · own 38 · Q1 1:092PuntPunt-1.81-0.71–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 31 · Q2 1:512Puntnot graded-2.16-1.01–punted
4th & 5 · opp 40 · Q3 11:402Go for itnot graded0.63-0.150.71converted
4th & 10 · own 10 · Q4 7:362Puntnot graded-3.20-2.29–punted
4th & 18 · own 24 · Q4 2:122Go for itnot graded-2.63-1.38–converted
4th & 4 · own 24 · Q1 13:081PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.43-1.38–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 42 · Q2 13:471PuntPunt-1.34-0.56–✓punted
4th & 16 · own 32 · Q2 9:311PuntPunt-2.02-0.96–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 39 · Q2 3:211PuntPunt-0.97-0.67–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 25 · Q3 3:341Puntnot graded-1.57-1.32–punted
4th & 3 · own 45 · Q4 13:121PuntGo for it0.15-0.46–−0.61punted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q4 2:351Field goalnot graded2.17–2.93good
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q4 0:371Puntnot graded1.02-0.49–punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Pass Interference on DET in Week 4, worth +8 points of win probability to CAR.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Pass InterferenceDET → helped CAR · Wk 4 Q3 11:25 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan [97-A.Hutchinson]. PENALTY on DET-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass…+8.1 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessDET → helped GB · Wk 7 Q4 10:02 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short middle to 32-M.Lloyd. PENALTY on DET-55-D.Barnes, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…+6.5 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceDET → helped MIN · Wk 8 Q1 1:39 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete deep left to 3-J.Addison. PENALTY on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference,…+6.5 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceDET → helped NO · Wk 1 Q3 0:40 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass incomplete deep right to 14-D.Vele. PENALTY on DET-23-R.Ya-Sin, Defensive Pass Interference, 21 yards,…+6.0 WP
  5. 5Defensive HoldingDET → helped BUF · Wk 2 Q1 12:54 · (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end ran ob at BUF 44 for 13 yards (45-D.White). PENALTY on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Holding,…+5.8 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference58528.3
Offensive Holding1211522.9
False Start157318.9
Unnecessary Roughness23011.4
Defensive Holding3127.5
Kickoff Short of Landing Zone203.9
Illegal Contact153.3
Delay of Game3153.3

Flags drawn

  1. 1Roughing the PasserGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 2:45 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (29-X.McKinney; 58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on…+14.1 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessARI → helped DET · Wk 5 Q2 13:37 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to ARI 35 for 12 yards (29-D.Burke). PENALTY on ARI-1-Ma.Wilson,…+10.2 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserMIN → helped DET · Wk 8 Q1 12:07 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 14-A.St. Brown. PENALTY on MIN-50-L.Rodriguez, Roughing the Passer,…+7.9 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 9:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 32-M.Lloyd. PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced…+7.3 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingNYJ → helped DET · Wk 3 Q2 0:41 · (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short left to 0-B.Allen to DET 32 for 11 yards (55-D.Barnes; 21-R.McCreary). PENALTY on…+7.0 WP

Garbage Time Tax

26.8% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 4th most of 32

Bottom lineSam LaPorta: 152 of 399 yards (38%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Jared GoffDET · passing · 2,134 yds30%
Jahmyr GibbsDET · rushing · 847 yds17%
Amon-Ra St. BrownDET · receiving · 666 yds33%
Jameson WilliamsDET · receiving · 468 yds20%
Sam LaPortaDET · receiving · 399 yds38%
Jahmyr GibbsDET · receiving · 276 yds32%

Our picks on the Lions

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Lions 68% at dolphins. 19-9 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Lions 44% at home against vikings. 15-19 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Lions 55% at home against packers. 17-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Lions 52% at cardinals. 45-21 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Lions 39% at panthers. 26-32 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Lions 40% at home against jets. 24-31 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Lions 43% at bills. 31-41 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Detroit Lions verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/lions/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.