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The Verdict2026 · NFC South · through Week 9

Panthers logoCarolina PanthersThe Verdict

Panthers are 3-5; the play says 3.7 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 1-3 in one-score games. On fourth down, Dave Canales kicked away 2 of 9 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 25th of 32−0.73-5 real · 3.7 deserved · 3.5 Pythagorean
Luck points · 25th of 32−6.2fumble bounces −3.5 · opponents' kicks −2.7
Chicken Index · 31st of 3222%Dave Canales · 2.8 expected points lost on 38 graded calls
Flags net · 19th of 32−11.9 WP70 flags for 635 yards against · 70 drawn

Every game, judged

Robbed 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 8 games went against the play. The biggest: DEN @ CAR, where the Panthers lost with a 79% deserved win probability.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9RobbedGame file →
Broncos logoBroncos43% success · +0.03 EPA/play
2621
Panthers logoPanthers47% success · +0.10 EPA/play

Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.

Deserved marginCAR by 4.4
Real marginDEN by 5
Luck pts DEN+4.5
Luck pts CAR−2.9

The swingQ4 1:24 · CAR · −33 pts of win probability. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play…

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Panthers logoPanthers34% success · −0.19 EPA/play
1927
Packers logoPackers48% success · +0.05 EPA/play

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 13.7, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 13.7
Real marginGB by 8
Luck pts CAR−1.1
Luck pts GB+0.8

The swingQ2 9:19 · GB · +13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass deep middle to 9-C.Watson to CAR 26 for 53 yards (24-W.Lee). GB-9-C.Watson was injured during the play. CAR-24-W.Lee was injured during the play. Penalty on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass…

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games1-3Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−3.5 ptsKept 2 of 6 own fumbles; won 4 of 8 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−2.7 ptsOpponents made 12 of 13 field goals against an expected 11.2, and 23 of 24 extra points.
Own kicking+2.8 ptsMade 13 of 14 field goals against 12.1 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play0.00017th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-4Our pregame model in Panthers games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Dave Canales · 38 graded fourth downs · went for it 18×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 2.4 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1CAR · 4th & 1Dave Canales chose Punt at own 42, Wk 6 Q1 1:48, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.46 EP
  2. 2CAR · 4th & 2Dave Canales chose Punt at own 44, Wk 3 Q1 6:00, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.94 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1CAR · 4th & 1Dave Canales chose Go for it at own 40, Wk 3 Q2 3:40, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2CAR · 4th & 1Dave Canales chose Go for it at opp 9, Wk 8 Q1 0:50, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3CAR · 4th & 2Dave Canales chose Go for it at midfield, Wk 8 Q3 12:22, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4CAR · 4th & 3Dave Canales chose Go for it at opp 43, Wk 3 Q2 8:38, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 7 · own 34 · Q1 8:179PuntPunt-1.28-0.87–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 27 · Q1 0:319PuntPunt-1.94-1.21–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 25 · Q2 11:499Field goalField goal1.45–2.40✓missed
4th & 1 · opp 35 · Q2 1:499Go for itnot graded2.35-0.111.46converted
4th & 18 · own 19 · Q4 8:539PuntPunt-2.97-1.67–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 40 · Q4 4:219Go for itnot graded2.02-0.150.71converted
4th & 18 · opp 34 · Q4 3:189Go for itnot graded0.07-0.111.58converted
4th & 14 · opp 21 · Q1 11:478Field goalField goal1.07–2.61✓good
4th & 6 · own 16 · Q1 8:518PuntPunt-2.34-1.87–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 9 · Q1 0:508Go for itGo for it4.24–2.90✓converted
4th & 9 · own 38 · Q2 11:278PuntPunt-1.23-0.71–✓punted
4th & 15 · own 20 · Q2 1:258Puntnot graded-2.79-1.61–punted
4th & 2 · 50 · Q3 12:228Go for itGo for it0.82-0.32–✓stopped
4th & 17 · opp 32 · Q3 4:118Field goalnot graded0.24-0.111.82good
4th & 13 · own 33 · Q4 12:198Puntnot graded-1.82-0.92–punted
4th & 3 · opp 26 · Q4 5:458Go for itnot graded2.01–2.34touchdown
4th & 5 · 50 · Q4 2:468Go for itnot graded0.01-0.32–stopped
4th & 6 · own 44 · Q1 4:527PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.52-0.49–✓punted
4th & 30 · own 18 · Q3 13:097Puntnot graded-3.32-1.73–punted
4th & 1 · opp 5 · Q3 1:557Go for itnot graded4.98–2.93stopped
4th & 6 · opp 39 · Q4 1:227Go for itnot graded0.54-0.140.88stopped
4th & 4 · opp 29 · Q1 10:566Field goalField goal1.54–2.11✓good
4th & 12 · own 39 · Q1 7:056PuntPunt-1.38-0.67–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 42 · Q1 1:486PuntGo for it0.90-0.56–−1.46punted
4th & 10 · opp 45 · Q2 10:346PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.24-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 10 · opp 34 · Q3 11:376Field goalField goal0.45-0.111.58✓good
4th & 6 · own 46 · Q3 8:246PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.40-0.43–−0.03punted
4th & 1 · opp 31 · Q3 1:036Go for itGo for it2.62-0.111.92✓converted
4th & 8 · own 13 · Q4 9:466PuntPunt-2.80-2.07–✓punted
4th & 12 · own 45 · Q1 7:494PuntPunt-1.00-0.46–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 42 · Q2 8:524Go for itGo for it0.70-0.170.38✓converted
4th & 10 · opp 29 · Q2 0:324Field goalnot graded0.78–2.11good
4th & 4 · opp 37 · Q4 11:144Go for itnot graded1.02-0.121.18converted
4th & 10 · opp 14 · Q4 9:034Field goalnot graded1.99–2.82good
4th & 7 · own 15 · Q4 6:144Puntnot graded-2.54-1.93–punted
4th & 11 · own 49 · Q4 2:124Puntnot graded-0.69-0.35–punted
4th & 17 · own 33 · Q1 12:103PuntPunt-1.99-0.92–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 44 · Q1 6:003PuntGo for it0.45-0.49–−0.94punted
4th & 3 · opp 43 · Q2 8:383Go for itGo for it0.90-0.190.20✓stopped
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q2 3:403Go for itGo for it0.78-0.63–✓stopped
4th & 17 · opp 17 · Q2 0:303Field goalnot graded0.55–2.75good
4th & 2 · opp 22 · Q3 13:263Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.65–2.57−0.09good
4th & 14 · opp 45 · Q3 7:423PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.47-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 7 · opp 35 · Q3 3:213Field goalField goal0.67-0.111.46✓good
4th & 6 · opp 19 · Q4 11:453Field goalField goal1.86–2.69✓good
4th & 16 · own 16 · Q4 1:273Go for itnot graded-3.11-1.87–stopped
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q1 10:512Go for itField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94−0.15touchdown
4th & 15 · own 39 · Q1 8:432PuntPunt-1.53-0.67–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 19 · Q1 4:332Field goalField goal1.31–2.69✓good
4th & 16 · own 27 · Q2 13:122PuntPunt-2.35-1.21–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 7 · Q2 5:572Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.87–2.92✓good
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q3 4:342Go for itnot graded3.29–2.95stopped
4th & 6 · own 22 · Q4 10:212Puntnot graded-1.93-1.49–punted
4th & 13 · own 40 · Q4 3:302Puntnot graded-1.37-0.63–punted
4th & 13 · own 37 · Q1 4:221PuntPunt-1.56-0.75–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 23 · Q2 15:001PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.50-1.43–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 26 · Q2 2:391Field goalField goal0.98–2.34✓good
4th & 5 · own 39 · Q3 13:081PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.68-0.67–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 39 · Q3 0:551Go for itGo for it1.15-0.140.88✓stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Roughing the Passer on CAR in Week 3, worth +17 points of win probability to CLE.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Roughing the PasserCAR → helped CLE · Wk 3 Q4 2:36 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback.…+16.9 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped GB · Wk 8 Q1 8:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep middle to 0-M.Golden. PENALTY on CAR-24-W.Lee, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards,…+11.4 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped DEN · Wk 9 Q1 14:47 · (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (31-C.Thornton). PENALTY…+10.2 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingCAR → helped PHI · Wk 6 Q1 9:53 · 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to CAR 26, Center-41-R.Underwood. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 39 for 13 yards (34-C.Steele). PENALTY on…+8.4 WP
  5. 5Unsportsmanlike ConductCAR → helped TB · Wk 7 Q2 9:09 · 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (23-T.Smith), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT.…+8.0 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference1016453.5
Offensive Holding1514934.6
Roughing the Passer45529.4
False Start126122.3
Illegal Use of Hands2158.4
Unsportsmanlike Conduct1158.0
Intentional Grounding2207.6
Defensive Holding154.8

Flags drawn

  1. 1Illegal ShiftCLE → helped CAR · Wk 3 Q4 2:41 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 19 for 5 yards (22-L.Ransom). PENALTY on CLE-11-M.Corley, Illegal…+10.7 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceDET → helped CAR · Wk 4 Q3 11:25 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan [97-A.Hutchinson]. PENALTY on DET-21-R.McCreary, Defensive Pass…+8.1 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserCLE → helped CAR · Wk 3 Q2 1:04 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 16 for 30 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Roughing…+7.5 WP
  4. 4Roughing the PasserDEN → helped CAR · Wk 9 Q4 3:18 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 13-J.Metchie to DEN 9 for 25 yards (30-T.Rapp). PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Roughing the…+7.3 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserATL → helped CAR · Wk 2 Q1 12:03 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan to ATL 5 for 26 yards (24-Aj.Terrell). PENALTY on ATL-95-G.Dexter, Roughing…+6.7 WP

Garbage Time Tax

26.3% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 6th most of 32

Bottom lineTetairoa McMillan: 161 of 626 yards (26%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Bryce YoungCAR · passing · 2,197 yds23%
Tetairoa McMillanCAR · receiving · 626 yds26%
Chuba HubbardCAR · rushing · 619 yds23%
Jalen CokerCAR · receiving · 392 yds22%
Darren WallerCAR · receiving · 299 yds11%

Our picks on the Panthers

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Panthers 51% at home against broncos. 26-21 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Panthers 44% at packers. 19-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Panthers 71% at home against buccaneers. 43-13 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Panthers 67% at eagles. 25-14 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Panthers 61% at home against lions. 26-32 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Panthers 66% at browns. 18-21 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Panthers 34% at falcons. 34-3 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Carolina Panthers verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/panthers/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.