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The Verdict2026 · AFC West · through Week 9

Broncos logoDenver BroncosThe Verdict

Broncos are 7-2; the play says 4.1 wins. That record is running 2.9 wins ahead of how they have played, the kind of gap that usually closes. They are 6-0 in one-score games. On fourth down, Sean Payton kicked away 11 of 14 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 1st of 32+2.97-2 real · 4.1 deserved · 4.8 Pythagorean
Luck points · 3rd of 32+15.5fumble bounces +9.8 · opponents' kicks +5.7
Chicken Index · 4th of 3279%Sean Payton · 9.5 expected points lost on 46 graded calls
Flags net · 7th of 32+42.7 WP69 flags for 478 yards against · 73 drawn

Every game, judged

Lucky 3× · latest first

Bottom line3 of these 9 games went against the play. The biggest: DEN @ CAR, where the Panthers lost with a 79% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9LuckyGame file →
Broncos logoBroncos43% success · +0.03 EPA/play
2621
Panthers logoPanthers47% success · +0.10 EPA/play

Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.

Deserved marginCAR by 4.4
Real marginDEN by 5
Luck pts DEN+4.5
Luck pts CAR−2.9

The swingQ4 1:24 · CAR · −33 pts of win probability. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play…

Week 8LuckyGame file →
Chiefs logoChiefs49% success · +0.15 EPA/play
2428
Broncos logoBroncos43% success · +0.09 EPA/play

Chiefs played like a 3.1-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 71% of the time. Chiefs lost.

Deserved marginKC by 3.1
Real marginDEN by 4
Luck pts KC−0.8
Luck pts DEN+1.4

The swingQ4 0:04 · KC · −38 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at DEN 12 for -6 yards (97-M.Roach).

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games6-0Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+9.8 ptsKept 8 of 10 own fumbles; won 4 of 9 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+5.7 ptsOpponents made 15 of 20 field goals against an expected 17.2, and 19 of 19 extra points.
Own kicking−1.4 ptsMade 16 of 19 field goals against 16.5 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.02120th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them3-5Our pregame model in Broncos games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Sean Payton · 46 graded fourth downs · went for it 6×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 7.8 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Punt at own 32, Wk 1 Q2 4:50, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.25 EP
  2. 2DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Punt at own 24, Wk 7 Q2 12:32, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.17 EP
  3. 3DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Field goal at opp 1, Wk 5 Q4 5:10, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: good.−1.16 EP
  4. 4DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 45, Wk 4 Q3 10:52, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.97 EP
  5. 5DEN · 4th & 3Sean Payton chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 5 Q1 10:02, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.90 EP
  6. 6DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 42, Wk 8 Q1 4:37, down 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.89 EP
  7. 7DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 38, Wk 3 Q4 7:10, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.79 EP
  8. 8DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 31, Wk 2 Q1 2:12, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.66 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 5 Q2 5:19, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2DEN · 4th & 3Sean Payton chose Go for it at opp 48, Wk 6 Q1 3:46, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Go for it at opp 2, Wk 8 Q4 9:00, down 11. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 8 · opp 8 · Q1 11:119Field goalField goal1.59–2.91✓good
4th & 6 · own 43 · Q2 14:199PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.59-0.52–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 24 · Q3 8:549PuntPunt-2.63-1.38–✓punted
4th & 20 · own 14 · Q4 2:009Puntnot graded-3.40-2.00–punted
4th & 6 · opp 21 · Q1 9:478Field goalField goal1.72–2.61✓good
4th & 2 · own 42 · Q1 4:378PuntGo for it0.33-0.56–−0.89punted
4th & 4 · opp 27 · Q2 14:128Field goalField goal1.68–2.27✓good
4th & 20 · own 49 · Q2 11:078PuntPunt-1.06-0.35–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 1:198Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95touchdown
4th & 4 · own 38 · Q3 12:388PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.54-0.71–−0.16punted
4th & 7 · own 23 · Q3 7:118PuntPunt-2.00-1.43–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 30 · Q3 1:188PuntPunt-1.82-1.06–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q4 9:008Go for itGo for it3.29–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 12 · opp 30 · Q1 11:057Field goalField goal0.58-0.112.02✓good
4th & 7 · own 43 · Q1 7:477PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.71-0.52–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 25 · Q1 1:137Field goalField goal0.97–2.40✓good
4th & 1 · own 24 · Q2 12:327PuntGo for it-0.21-1.38–−1.17punted
4th & 2 · own 19 · Q2 1:507Puntnot graded-1.12-1.67–punted
4th & 10 · opp 13 · Q4 8:437Field goalnot graded2.03–2.84good
4th & 20 · own 46 · Q4 4:007Puntnot graded-1.25-0.43–punted
4th & 8 · own 12 · Q1 8:366PuntPunt-2.87-2.14–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 48 · Q1 3:466Go for itGo for it0.58-0.28–✓converted
4th & 6 · own 38 · Q2 1:496Puntnot graded-0.90-0.71–punted
4th & 11 · own 44 · Q3 12:516PuntPunt-1.00-0.49–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 41 · Q3 7:556PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.71-0.59–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 13 · Q3 1:546PuntPunt-2.69-2.07–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 25 · Q4 9:286Puntnot graded-1.73-1.32–punted
4th & 20 · own 18 · Q4 3:316Puntnot graded-3.11-1.73–punted
4th & 8 · own 33 · Q4 1:106Puntnot graded-1.45-0.92–punted
4th & 2 · opp 35 · OT 4:576Field goalnot graded1.77-0.111.46good
4th & 3 · opp 47 · Q1 10:025PuntGo for it0.65-0.26-0.53−0.90punted
4th & 12 · own 13 · Q1 1:385PuntPunt-3.13-2.07–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 16 · Q2 13:195PuntGo for it (toss-up)-1.70-1.87–−0.17punted
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q2 5:195Go for itGo for it1.02-0.49–✓converted
4th & 7 · opp 16 · Q2 1:525Field goalnot graded1.94–2.78good
4th & 6 · own 39 · Q3 4:145PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.84-0.67–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 33 · Q4 14:555PuntPunt-1.21-0.92–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 24 · Q4 12:085Field goalField goal1.39–2.46✓missed
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q4 5:105Field goalGo for it4.12–2.95−1.16good
4th & 7 · opp 18 · Q4 1:125Field goalnot graded1.80–2.72good
4th & 8 · own 37 · Q1 14:174PuntPunt-1.20-0.75–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 34 · Q1 1:484Field goalField goal0.38-0.111.58✓good
4th & 7 · own 37 · Q2 12:434PuntPunt-1.09-0.75–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 47 · Q2 5:134PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.37-0.26-0.53✓punted
4th & 10 · own 38 · Q2 0:474Puntnot graded-1.31-0.71–punted
4th & 2 · own 45 · Q3 10:524PuntGo for it0.51-0.46–−0.97punted
4th & 2 · opp 22 · Q4 14:124Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.65–2.57−0.09good
4th & 3 · own 49 · Q4 1:524Go for itnot graded0.40-0.35–converted
4th & 5 · opp 40 · Q4 1:184Field goalnot graded0.63-0.150.71missed
4th & 6 · own 18 · Q1 9:363PuntPunt-2.20-1.73–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 25 · Q1 1:233Field goalField goal1.45–2.40✓missed
4th & 3 · own 38 · Q2 11:513PuntGo for it-0.28-0.71–−0.42punted
4th & 14 · own 45 · Q2 1:183Puntnot graded-1.10-0.46–punted
4th & 4 · own 38 · Q3 14:083Puntnot graded-0.54-0.71–punted
4th & 2 · own 38 · Q4 7:103PuntGo for it0.08-0.71–−0.79punted
4th & 10 · own 24 · Q1 13:112PuntPunt-2.22-1.38–✓punted
4th & 11 · own 26 · Q1 7:222PuntPunt-2.16-1.27–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 31 · Q1 2:122PuntGo for it-0.35-1.01–−0.66punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 7:032Field goalGo for it3.29–2.95−0.34good
4th & 5 · opp 27 · Q3 5:022Field goalField goal1.48–2.27✓good
4th & 6 · own 27 · Q2 13:401PuntPunt-1.60-1.21–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 20 · Q2 9:281PuntGo for it-1.05-1.61–−0.56punted
4th & 1 · own 32 · Q2 4:501PuntGo for it0.29-0.96–−1.25punted
4th & 5 · own 39 · Q2 0:581Puntnot graded-0.68-0.67–punted
4th & 7 · opp 44 · Q3 9:561Puntnot graded0.10-0.200.02punted
4th & 13 · opp 13 · Q3 7:381Field goalnot graded0.94–2.84good
4th & 5 · own 32 · Q4 13:381Puntnot graded-1.12-0.96–punted
4th & 8 · own 29 · Q4 4:411Go for itnot graded-1.71-1.11–stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Offensive Pass Interference on DEN in Week 7, worth +8 points of win probability to ARI.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Offensive Pass InterferenceDEN → helped ARI · Wk 7 Q1 11:19 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to ARI 1 for 19 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). PENALTY on DEN-82-A.Trautman, Offensive…+7.8 WP
  2. 2Face MaskDEN → helped KC · Wk 8 Q1 9:04 · 9-K.Walker right guard to 50 for 4 yards (29-J.McMillian; 96-E.Uwazurike). PENALTY on DEN-96-E.Uwazurike, Face Mask, 15 yards,…+7.4 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserDEN → helped CAR · Wk 9 Q4 3:18 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 13-J.Metchie to DEN 9 for 25 yards (30-T.Rapp). PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Roughing the…+7.3 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingDEN → helped SF · Wk 4 Q1 3:41 · 27-J.Dobbins right guard to SF 30 for 3 yards (92-O.Odighizuwa; 55-S.Valdez). PENALTY on DEN-69-M.McGlinchey, Offensive Holding,…+6.2 WP
  5. 5Lowering the Head to Make Forcible ContactDEN → helped ARI · Wk 7 Q1 0:54 · (Shotgun) 20-Z.Knight left tackle pushed ob at DEN 16 for 29 yards (23-J.Barron). PENALTY on DEN-22-B.Jones, Lowering the Head…+6.0 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference88026.1
Offensive Holding98620.1
False Start94416.7
Offensive Pass Interference44014.0
Delay of Game94514.0
Face Mask2307.7
Roughing the Passer157.3
Unnecessary Roughness3206.0

Flags drawn

  1. 1Illegal Use of HandsLA → helped DEN · Wk 3 Q4 1:01 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short left to 1-E.Engram (37-Q.Lake). PENALTY on LA-37-Q.Lake, Illegal Use of Hands, 3 yards,…+10.2 WP
  2. 2Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped DEN · Wk 9 Q1 14:47 · (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (31-C.Thornton). PENALTY…+10.2 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceLA → helped DEN · Wk 3 Q4 1:15 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 13-P.Bryant INTERCEPTED by 30-J.Wallace [0-B.Young] at LA 8. 30-J.Wallace ran…+9.4 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped DEN · Wk 2 Q4 7:30 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards,…+7.7 WP
  5. 5Unnecessary RoughnessKC → helped DEN · Wk 8 Q1 11:41 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 46-A.Prentice pushed ob at KC 40 for 10 yards (43-J.Cochrane). PENALTY on KC-43-J.Cochrane,…+7.3 WP

Garbage Time Tax

11.9% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 31st most of 32

Bottom lineJaylen Waddle: 83 of 337 yards (25%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Bo NixDEN · passing · 1,730 yds10%
Jaylen WaddleDEN · receiving · 337 yds25%
J.K. DobbinsDEN · rushing · 324 yds9%
Courtland SuttonDEN · receiving · 266 yds9%

Our picks on the Broncos

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Broncos 49% at panthers. 26-21 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Broncos 39% at home against chiefs. 24-28 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Broncos 56% at cardinals. 30-16 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Broncos 41% at home against seahawks. 14-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Broncos 53% at chargers. 23-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Broncos 17% at 49ers. 14-24 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Broncos 41% at home against rams. 26-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Broncos 21% at home against jaguars. 13-20 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Denver Broncos verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/broncos/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.