Patriots 24, Bears 30: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Thu, Oct 22 · Soldier FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
NE	0	14	7	3	24
CHI	10	10	7	3	30

Home · 7-2ChicagoBears30

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

The Chicago Bears beat the New England Patriots 30-24 on Thu, Oct 22 at Soldier Field in Chicago, IL (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Patriots 5-4, Bears 7-2. C.Williams (CHI) led all players with +15.4 EPA on 39 dropbacks.

Who won Patriots vs Bears?

The Chicago Bears won 30-24. By quarter: NE 0-14-7-3, CHI 10-10-7-3.

Who was the best player in Patriots vs Bears?

By expected points added: C.Williams (CHI, +15.4 EPA on 39 dropbacks), D.Maye (NE, +13.7 EPA on 35 dropbacks) and L.Burden (CHI, +12.8 EPA on 4 targets).

What was the turning point of Patriots vs Bears?

The biggest swing in win probability (14 points toward the Bears) came in Q2 at 3:32: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Patriots 24, Bears 30: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-22-ne-at-chi (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

Patriots47% success · +0.18 EPA/play

2430

Bears46% success · +0.20 EPA/play

NE 25% deserveddeserved 75% CHI

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 3.6, a deserved win probability of 75%.

Deserved marginCHI by 3.6

Real marginCHI by 6

Luck pts NE+0.2

Luck pts CHI−0.7

The swingQ3 3:52 · NE · +11 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 82-E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the PasserNE → helped CHI · Wk 7 Q2 2:21 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to NE 48 for 22 yards (22-C.Woods; 14-R.Spillane). PENALTY on…+7.4 WP
2Offensive HoldingCHI → helped NE · Wk 7 Q4 5:27 · 65-L.Newman reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 26 for 8 yards (4-C.Woodson). PENALTY on CHI-13-Z.Thomas,…+6.9 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA139 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlan Eck19 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: CHI by 3 · Snaps: CHI by 3.6Bears covered; the snaps agree

24@30

Week 7Changes the winner

If the Patriots had converted that fourth-and-5

Patriots after the play35%what really happened

Q1 11:35 10-D.Maye sacked at CHI 46 for -1 yards (6-K.Gordon).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CHI ▲NE ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+14%Q2 3:32 · for CHI(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right intended for E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by D.Jackson at CHI -7. Touchback.
+12%Q2 0:00 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
+10%Q1 2:32 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass deep left to L.Burden to NE 4 for 58 yards (K.Byard).
+10%Q3 3:46 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
+10%Q2 0:14 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.

Every drive, on the field

CHI attacks →← NE attacks

Q1 15:00DOWNS6p · 23y · 3:30
Q1 11:30FG5p · 29y · 1:37
Q1 9:53PUNT3p · 6y · 1:36
Q1 8:17PUNT3p · 3y · 2:31
Q1 5:46PUNT3p · 1y · 2:08
Q1 3:38TD5p · 74y · 2:00
Q1 1:38TD9p · 74y · 5:05
Q2 11:33FG9p · 30y · 4:29
Q2 7:04INT6p · 53y · 3:39
Q2 3:25TD10p · 80y · 3:11
Q2 0:14TD2p · 66y · 0:14
Q3 15:00TD9p · 72y · 5:19
Q3 9:41TD9p · 80y · 5:55
Q3 3:46PUNT3p · 2y · 0:56
Q3 2:50PUNT4p · 17y · 2:57
Q4 14:53MISS13p · 51y · 6:56
Q4 7:57PUNT3p · 3y · 1:35
Q4 6:22FG12p · 51y · 4:48
Q4 1:34FG6p · 46y · 0:57
Q4 0:37END1p · -1y · 0:37

Patriots10 drives4scoring drives (3 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Bears9 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position2three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:53Field goal C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.0–3
Q1
1:38TouchdownD.Swift left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.0–10
Q2
11:33Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right guard to CHI 1 for 6 yards (C.Phillips).New England challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED.(Shotgun) D.Maye scrambles right guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.7–10
Q2
7:04Field goalC.Santos 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.7–13
Q2
0:14Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to L.Burden for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.7–20
Q2
0:00Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short right to R.Stevenson for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.14–20
Q3
9:41TouchdownC.Williams pass short left to C.Loveland for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.14–27
Q3
3:46Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Raridon for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.21–27
Q4
1:34Field goalC.Santos 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.21–30
Q4
0:37Field goal A.Borregales 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.24–30

Team stats

NEvsCHI

380Total yards405

310Passing yards289

70Rushing yards116

7.6Yards per play6.1

20First downs21

2-7 · 29%Third down4-12 · 33%

0-1Fourth down2-2

1-2Red zone TDs3-4

24/31Comp / att22/33

4.1Yards per carry3.9

1Turnovers0

2 (−11 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−19 yds)

10 for 71Penalties9 for 69

27:36Possession32:24

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.185+0.195

Dropback EPA+0.393+0.396

Rush EPA-0.335-0.106

Success rate47%46%

Explosive plays410

Plays4965

Who moved the needle

C.WilliamsDropbacks: 39+15.4

D.MayeDropbacks: 35+13.7

L.BurdenTargets: 4+12.8

R.StevensonTargets: 5+8.7

R.OdunzeTargets: 5+6.3

H.HenryTargets: 7+5.4

Cost their side the most

D.SwiftTargets: 4-2.4

R.StevensonCarries: 6-2.2

D.SwiftCarries: 22-1.4

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	24/31	321	10.4	2	1	2-11	77.3	117.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Drake MayeQB	4	26	6.5	1	15
Rhamondre StevensonRB	6	22	3.7	0	13
Corey KinerRB	4	13	3.3	0	7
TreVeyon HendersonRB	3	9	3.0	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Rhamondre StevensonRB	5	5	93	18.6	1	48
Hunter HenryTE	7	7	71	10.1	0	16
Eli RaridonTE	3	4	56	18.7	1	30
A.J. BrownWR	3	6	48	16.0	0	18
DeMario DouglasWR	3	4	23	7.7	0	16
Efton Chism IIIWR	1	1	16	16.0	0	16
TreVeyon HendersonRB	2	2	14	7.0	0	8
Kyle WilliamsWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Christian EllissLB	13	8	0	1	0	2
Marcus JonesCB	9	5	1	2	0	1
Craig WoodsonS	8	5	0	0	1	0
Kevin ByardS	7	3	0	0	0	0
Charles WoodsCB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Robert SpillaneLB	5	1	0	0	0	0
Cory DurdenDT	4	3	0	0	0	0
Christian GonzalezCB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Darius MuasauLB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Jaylen ReedS	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	1/1	100.0	47	3/3	6

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Caleb WilliamsQB	22/33	308	9.3	2	0	3-19	82.8	116.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
D'Andre SwiftRB	22	78	3.5	1	10
Caleb WilliamsQB	5	18	3.6	0	9
Roschon JohnsonRB	2	13	6.5	0	9
Luther Burden IIIWR	1	7	7.0	0	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Luther Burden IIIWR	4	4	130	32.5	1	58
Colston LovelandTE	7	12	69	9.9	1	22
Rome OdunzeWR	4	5	69	17.3	0	21
Cole KmetTE	3	3	28	9.3	0	14
D'Andre SwiftRB	4	4	12	3.0	0	11
Kalif RaymondWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Dillon ThienemanS	8	3	0.5	0	0	1
D'Marco JacksonLB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Kyler GordonCB	5	3	1	2	0	1
Cam LewisCB	5	3	0	0	0	0
Devin BushLB	4	4	0	0	0	0
Tyrique Stevenson Sr.CB	4	2	0	0	1	0
Daniel HardyDE	4	1	0.5	0	0	2
Austin BookerDE	3	3	0	0	0	0
Malik Muhammad IICB	3	2	0	1	1	0
Buddy JohnsonLB	3	0	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cairo SantosPK	3/4	75.0	58	3/3	12

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Patriots big-play offense vs Bears defense against big plays
The Patriots' big-play offense ranks 6th in explosive-play rate (10.8%, 380 plays) against a Bears defense against big plays ranked 27th (10.9% allowed, 302 plays faced).
6thNE offense21 spots apart27thCHI defense
2Patriots red-zone defense vs Bears red-zone offense
The Patriots' red-zone defense ranks 6th in red-zone touchdown rate (50% allowed, 18 trips faced) and faces a Bears red-zone offense ranked 22nd (50%, 26 trips).
22ndCHI offense16 spots apart6thNE defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Patriots takeaway defense vs Bears ball security
The Patriots' takeaway defense ranks 14th in turnovers per game (1.2 takeaways a game, 6 games) and faces a Bears ball security ranked 26th (1.8 giveaways a game, 6 games).
26thCHI offense12 spots apart14thNE defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Patriots have the ballNo big edge

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCHI pass defense

7th+0.18222 dropbacks

-0.02 allowed192 dropbacks faced9th

NE run gameEPA per rushCHI run defense

25th-0.16158 rushes

-0.05 allowed110 rushes faced24th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bears have the ballEdge CHI · +10 ranks

CHI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

14th+0.09238 dropbacks

+0.01 allowed213 dropbacks faced14th

CHI run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

15th-0.05194 rushes

CHI +10

-0.05 allowed131 rushes faced25th

Third downNo big edge

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCHI third-down defense

9th44.2%77 third downs

25.8% allowed62 third downs faced2nd

CHI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

6th46.0%87 third downs

37.1% allowed70 third downs faced9th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NE · +16 ranks

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCHI red-zone defense

22nd50%20 trips

71% allowed14 trips faced26th

CHI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

22nd50%26 trips

NE +16

50% allowed18 trips faced6th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NE · +21 ranks

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCHI defense against big plays

6th10.8%380 plays

NE +21

10.9% allowed302 plays faced27th

CHI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

12th9.7%432 plays

8.4% allowed344 plays faced12th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

NE pass protectionsack rateCHI pass rush

9th5.0% sacked222 dropbacks

8.9% of dropbacks192 dropbacks faced2nd

CHI pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

20th6.3% sacked238 dropbacks

6.6% of dropbacks213 dropbacks faced15th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge NE · +12 ranks

NE ball securityturnovers per gameCHI takeaway defense

31st2.2 giveaways a game6 games

CHI +11

1.0 takeaways a game6 games20th

CHI ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

26th1.8 giveaways a game6 games

NE +12

1.2 takeaways a game6 games14th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: NE 6 games, 380 offensive and 344 defensive plays · CHI 6 games, 432 offensive and 302 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Corey KinerFB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

Mack HollinsWR→ Efton Chism III

Carlton Davis IIILCB→ Charles Woods

Montez SweatLDE→ Austin Booker

Jeffery SimmonsRDT→ Kentavius Street

T.J. EdwardsMLB→ Daniel Hardy

AwayPatriots3 next man up · 4 questionable · 3 changes