Bears 31, Falcons 23: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 6 · Sun, Oct 18 · Mercedes-Benz StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
CHI	14	7	7	3	31
ATL	0	7	0	16	23

Home · 3-6AtlantaFalcons23

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:41 PM ET

The Chicago Bears beat the Atlanta Falcons 31-23 on Sun, Oct 18 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA (Week 6, 2026 season). Records after the game: Bears 7-2, Falcons 3-6. C.Williams (CHI) led all players with +10.1 EPA on 41 dropbacks.

Who won Bears vs Falcons?

The Chicago Bears won 31-23. By quarter: CHI 14-7-7-3, ATL 0-7-0-16.

Who was the best player in Bears vs Falcons?

By expected points added: C.Williams (CHI, +10.1 EPA on 41 dropbacks), R.Odunze (CHI, +6.6 EPA on 4 targets) and J.Dotson (ATL, +6.6 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Bears vs Falcons?

The biggest swing in win probability (10 points toward the Bears) came in Q2 at 1:52: T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-S.Daly. Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Bears 31, Falcons 23: Week 6 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-18-chi-at-atl (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 6 issue →

Week 6EarnedGame file →

Bears50% success · +0.07 EPA/play

3123

Falcons33% success · −0.26 EPA/play

CHI 99% deserveddeserved 1% ATL

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 13.2, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginCHI by 13.2

Real marginCHI by 8

Luck pts CHI−0.1

Luck pts ATL+1.0

The swingQ1 11:24 · CHI · +12 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 15-R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to 23-R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (56-H.Perkins).

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the KickerCHI → helped ATL · Wk 6 Q3 12:48 · 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the…+5.7 WP
2Offensive HoldingCHI → helped ATL · Wk 6 Q1 12:15 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep left to 4-D.Swift (31-X.Watts). PENALTY on CHI-79-T.Benedet, Offensive Holding, 10…+4.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1ATL · 4th & 3Kevin Stefanski chose Go for it at opp 28, Wk 6 Q3 10:38, down 14. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: stopped.−0.32 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA147 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewScott Novak16 accepted flags in this game · 18.2 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: CHI by 1.5 · Snaps: CHI by 13.2Bears covered; the snaps agree

31@23

Week 6

If the Falcons had converted that fourth-and-3

Falcons after the play9%what really happened

Q3 10:38 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (1-J.Johnson) [92-D.Hardy].

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

ATL ▲CHI ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+10%Q2 1:52 · for CHIT.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-S.Daly. Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.
+7%Q1 8:15 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.
+6%Q1 11:24 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (H.Perkins).
+6%Q2 5:45 · for ATL(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.
+5%Q1 5:15 · for CHI(Shotgun) C.Williams pass deep middle to R.Odunze to ATL 43 for 23 yards (M.Hughes).

Every drive, on the field

ATL attacks →← CHI attacks

Q1 15:00TD10p · 67y · 6:45
Q1 8:15PUNT3p · 1y · 1:41
Q1 6:34TD9p · 59y · 5:27
Q1 1:07PUNT3p · 2y · 1:22
Q2 14:45PUNT5p · 20y · 2:49
Q2 11:56DOWNS6p · 37y · 2:31
Q2 9:25MISS5p · 18y · 2:06
Q2 7:19TD4p · 54y · 1:34
Q2 5:45PUNT6p · 20y · 4:02
Q2 1:43TD3p · 10y · 0:17
Q2 1:26PUNT4p · 8y · 0:39
Q2 0:47HALF3p · 6y · 0:47
Q3 15:00DOWNS7p · 49y · 4:28
Q3 10:32PUNT6p · 21y · 3:47
Q3 6:45PUNT3p · -4y · 2:17
Q3 4:28TD7p · 52y · 2:40
Q3 1:48FUM0p · 0y · 0:08
Q3 1:40FG4p · -1y · 1:44
Q4 14:56DOWNS4p · 5y · 0:24
Q4 14:32PUNT3p · -3y · 2:20
Q4 12:12TD8p · 91y · 2:38
Q4 9:34FUM4p · 29y · 2:23
Q4 7:11TD5p · 57y · 1:30
Q4 5:41PUNT3p · -1y · 2:07
Q4 3:34FUM3p · -6y · 0:40
Q4 2:54END7p · 23y · 2:54

Bears12 drives5scoring drives (4 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 43avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Falcons12 drives3scoring drives (3 TD)25%drives ending in pointsOWN 23avg starting field position3three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
8:15Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.7–0
Q1
1:07TouchdownD.Swift left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor. ** Injury Update: ATL-J.Robinson has returned to the game.14–0
Q2
5:45Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey.14–7
Q2
1:26Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Swift right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.21–7
Q3
1:48TouchdownR.Johnson right guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Santos extra point is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.28–7
Q4
14:56Field goalC.Santos 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-S.Daly, Holder-T.Taylor.31–7
Q4
9:34Touchdown(Shotgun) M.Penix pass short left to K.Pitts for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Penix pass to Z.Branch is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.31–15
Q4
5:41Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Penix pass short right to K.Pitts for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. M.Penix pass to D.London is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.31–23

Team stats

CHIvsATL

368Total yards257

270Passing yards194

98Rushing yards63

5.0Yards per play5.1

20First downs13

9-17 · 53%Third down3-12 · 25%

0-0Fourth down0-3

4-5Red zone TDs3-3

30/36Comp / att19/33

3.0Yards per carry5.3

1Turnovers3

4 (−35 yds)Sacks allowed5 (−31 yds)

12 for 133Penalties4 for 31

40:08Possession19:52

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.038-0.256

Dropback EPA+0.247-0.258

Rush EPA-0.240-0.250

Success rate50%33%

Explosive plays56

Plays7252

Who moved the needle

C.WilliamsDropbacks: 41+10.1

R.OdunzeTargets: 4+6.6

J.DotsonTargets: 5+6.6

K.PittsTargets: 7+6.2

C.LovelandTargets: 7+4.4

L.BurdenTargets: 8+3.1

Cost their side the most

M.PenixDropbacks: 41-10.6

C.WilliamsCarries: 3-7.3

O.ZaccheausTargets: 4-5.3

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Caleb WilliamsQB	30/36	305	8.5	1	0	4-35	53.7	111.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Roschon JohnsonRB	13	51	3.9	1	10
D'Andre SwiftRB	16	44	2.8	2	14
Caleb WilliamsQB	4	3	0.8	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Luther Burden IIIWR	8	8	95	11.9	0	25
Colston LovelandTE	6	7	65	10.8	1	16
Rome OdunzeWR	3	4	39	13.0	0	23
Roschon JohnsonRB	2	2	34	17.0	0	13
D'Andre SwiftRB	4	5	26	6.5	0	8
Zavion ThomasWR	3	3	25	8.3	0	14
Kalif RaymondWR	2	2	18	9.0	0	13
Cole KmetTE	2	2	3	1.5	0	2

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Devin BushLB	7	4	0	0	0	0
Noah SewellLB	6	4	0	1	0	0
Kyler GordonCB	4	4	3	3	0	2
Josh BlackwellCB	4	2	0	0	1	0
Elijah HicksS	4	2	0	0	0	0
Cam LewisCB	3	3	0	0	0	0
Austin BookerDE	3	3	0	0	0	0
Daniel HardyDE	3	1	1	1	1	2
Zavier ScottRB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Dillon ThienemanS	2	2	1	1	1	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cairo SantosPK	1/2	50.0	50	4/4	7

Atlanta Falcons

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Michael Penix Jr.QB	19/33	225	6.8	3	0	5-31	33.8	108.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bijan RobinsonRB	9	61	6.8	23
Michael Penix Jr.QB	1	1	1.0	1
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	2	1	0.5	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jahan DotsonWR	3	5	87	29.0	1	41
Drake LondonWR	4	10	62	15.5	0	39
Kyle Pitts Sr.TE	5	7	60	12.0	2	29
Brian Robinson Jr.RB	2	2	9	4.5	0	5
Zachariah BranchWR	2	2	9	4.5	0	5
Austin HooperTE	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Olamide ZaccheausWR	0	4	0	0.0	0	0
Bijan RobinsonRB	2	2	-8	-4.0	0	-3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	QB HTS
Kendal DanielsLB	7	6	0	1	0
Mike HughesCB	7	5	0	1	0
Jessie Bates IIIS	7	5	0	0	0
Sydney BrownS	7	5	0	0	0
Avieon TerrellCB	6	5	0	0	0
LaCale LondonDE	5	3	1	1	1
Josh WoodsLB	4	3	0	0	0
Harold Perkins Jr.LB	4	3	0	0	0
Gervon Dexter Sr.DT	4	2	1	1	2
Divine DeabloLB	4	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Nick FolkPK	0/0	0.0	0	1/1	1

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 5 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Falcons run game vs Bears run defense
The Falcons' run game ranks 4th in EPA per rush (+0.07, 155 rushes) against a Bears run defense ranked 24th (-0.03 allowed, 99 rushes faced).
4thATL offense20 spots apart24thCHI defense
2Bears pass rush vs Falcons pass protection
The Bears' pass rush ranks 7th in sack rate (7.9% of dropbacks, 151 dropbacks faced) and faces a Falcons pass protection ranked 26th (7.2% sacked, 152 dropbacks).
26thATL offense19 spots apart7thCHI defense
3Falcons big-play offense vs Bears defense against big plays
The Falcons' big-play offense ranks 10th in explosive-play rate (10.4%, 307 plays) against a Bears defense against big plays ranked 24th (10.8% allowed, 250 plays faced).
10thATL offense14 spots apart24thCHI defense

When the Bears have the ballEdge ATL · +8 ranks

CHI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackATL pass defense

18th+0.06197 dropbacks

ATL +8

-0.02 allowed226 dropbacks faced10th

CHI run gameEPA per rushATL run defense

10th-0.02163 rushes

-0.08 allowed98 rushes faced15th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Falcons have the ballEdge ATL · +20 ranks

ATL dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCHI pass defense

27th-0.12152 dropbacks

CHI +8

+0.04 allowed151 dropbacks faced19th

ATL run gameEPA per rushCHI run defense

4th+0.07155 rushes

ATL +20

-0.03 allowed99 rushes faced24th

Third downEdge CHI · +12 ranks

CHI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateATL third-down defense

10th44.3%70 third downs

41.4% allowed70 third downs faced17th

ATL third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCHI third-down defense

14th41.7%60 third downs

CHI +12

26.0% allowed50 third downs faced2nd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge ATL · +16 ranks

CHI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateATL red-zone defense

32nd43%21 trips

ATL +16

60% allowed20 trips faced16th

ATL red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCHI red-zone defense

6th69%13 trips

ATL +14

64% allowed11 trips faced20th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge ATL · +14 ranks

CHI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateATL defense against big plays

11th10.3%360 plays

7.4% allowed324 plays faced4th

ATL big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCHI defense against big plays

10th10.4%307 plays

ATL +14

10.8% allowed250 plays faced24th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CHI · +19 ranks

CHI pass protectionsack rateATL pass rush

13th5.6% sacked197 dropbacks

CHI +10

4.9% of dropbacks226 dropbacks faced23rd

ATL pass protectionsack rateCHI pass rush

26th7.2% sacked152 dropbacks

CHI +19

7.9% of dropbacks151 dropbacks faced7th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

CHI ball securityturnovers per gameATL takeaway defense

29th2.0 giveaways a game5 games

0.8 takeaways a game5 games26th

ATL ball securityturnovers per gameCHI takeaway defense

25th1.8 giveaways a game5 games

1.0 takeaways a game5 games20th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: CHI 5 games, 360 offensive and 250 defensive plays · ATL 5 games, 307 offensive and 324 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Montez SweatLDE→ Austin Booker

Jeffery SimmonsRDT→ Daniel Hardy

T.J. EdwardsMLB→ Noah Sewell

Kyler GordonNB→ Malik Muhammad II

Tyrique Stevenson Sr.RCB→ Elijah Hicks

Corey LevinC→ Ryan Neuzil

Divine DeabloRILB→ Josh Woods

James Pearce Jr.SLB→ Harold Perkins Jr.

A.J. Terrell Jr.LCB→ Mike Hughes

C.J. HendersonRCB→ Avieon Terrell

DeMarcco HellamsSS→ Jessie Bates III