Packers 17, Lions 20: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · Ford FieldFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
GB	7	0	7	3	17
DET	7	3	7	3	20

Home · 6-2DetroitLions20

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:57 PM ET

The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers 20-17 on Sun, Oct 25 at Ford Field in Detroit, MI (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Packers 6-3, Lions 6-2. J.Goff (DET) led all players with +9.2 EPA on 33 dropbacks.

Who won Packers vs Lions?

The Detroit Lions won 20-17. By quarter: GB 7-0-7-3, DET 7-3-7-3.

Who was the best player in Packers vs Lions?

By expected points added: J.Goff (DET, +9.2 EPA on 33 dropbacks), A.St. Brown (DET, +8.9 EPA on 11 targets) and J.Love (GB, +6.9 EPA on 46 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Packers vs Lions?

The biggest swing in win probability (19 points toward the Lions) came in Q4 at 3:25: T.Smack 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (D.Wonnum), Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Packers 17, Lions 20: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-gb-at-det (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7Coin flipGame file →

Packers34% success · +0.04 EPA/play

1720

Lions52% success · −0.00 EPA/play

GB 58% deserveddeserved 42% DET

Lions won a coin flip: the snaps had it 42% for Lions.

Deserved marginGB by 1.1

Real marginDET by 3

Luck pts GB+1.8

Luck pts DET+3.0

The swingQ3 14:16 · DET · −17 pts of win probability. 16-J.Goff FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 41, touched at DET 41, RECOVERED by GB-58-I.McDuffie at DET 42.

Flags that moved this game

1Roughing the PasserGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 2:45 · (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 87-S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (29-X.McKinney; 58-I.McDuffie). PENALTY on…+14.1 WP
2Offensive HoldingGB → helped DET · Wk 7 Q4 9:14 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass incomplete deep right to 32-M.Lloyd. PENALTY on GB-71-A.Belton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced…+7.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1GB · 4th & 5Matt LaFleur chose Go for it at opp 33, Wk 7 Q1 12:35, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: converted.−0.62 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA147 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 12 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Moore13 accepted flags in this game · 16.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: DET by 3.5 · Snaps: GB by 1.1Packers covered; the snaps agree

17@20

Week 7Changes the winner

If the 22-yard kick at the gun had missed: overtime

Packers after the play0%what really happened

Q4 0:01 79-L.Borom and 76-B.Miller reported in as eligible. 39-J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DET ▲GB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+19%Q4 3:25 · for DETT.Smack 35 yard field goal is BLOCKED (D.Wonnum), Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
+18%Q4 2:45 · for DET(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to S.LaPorta to DET 45 for 18 yards (X.McKinney; I.McDuffie).PENALTY on GB-K.Brooks, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at DET 45.
+14%Q4 4:53 · for GBJ.Gibbs up the middle to DET 22 for -2 yards (K.Nixon).
+14%Q2 5:56 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to DET 13 for 28 yards (K.Abney). ** Injury Update: GB-M.Golden has returned to the game.
+13%Q3 12:14 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to J.Jacobs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.

Every drive, on the field

DET attacks →← GB attacks

Q1 15:00MISS10p · 57y · 4:37
Q1 10:23TD6p · 80y · 3:23
Q1 7:00TD12p · 74y · 6:02
Q1 0:58FG6p · 55y · 3:22
Q2 12:36PUNT3p · -4y · 1:28
Q2 11:08PUNT5p · 14y · 1:51
Q2 9:17DOWNS13p · 73y · 5:02
Q2 4:15FUM12p · 85y · 3:56
Q2 0:19HALF1p · 1y · 0:19
Q3 15:00FUM2p · 6y · 0:48
Q3 14:12TD5p · 42y · 1:58
Q3 12:14TD10p · 80y · 5:41
Q3 6:33PUNT3p · 2y · 1:08
Q3 5:25DOWNS10p · 60y · 4:21
Q3 1:04INT5p · 2y · 1:22
Q4 14:42PUNT3p · 1y · 0:58
Q4 13:44FG12p · 61y · 6:34
Q4 7:10DOWNS4p · 7y · 2:20
Q4 4:50MISS4p · 5y · 1:29
Q4 3:21FG10p · 71y · 3:21

Packers9 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Lions10 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)40%drives ending in pointsOWN 25avg starting field position1three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:00Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short left to J.Williams for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.0–7
Q1
0:58Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short right to T.Kraft for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.7–7
Q2
12:36Field goalJ.Bates 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.7–10
Q3
12:14Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to J.Jacobs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.14–10
Q3
6:33Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Goff pass short middle to J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [L.Van Ness]. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.14–17
Q4
7:10Field goalT.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.17–17
Q4
0:00Field goal L.Borom and B.Miller reported in as eligible. J.Bates 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox.17–20

Team stats

GBvsDET

324Total yards415

264Passing yards296

60Rushing yards119

5.0Yards per play6.3

17First downs26

5-15 · 33%Third down5-10 · 50%

3-4Fourth down0-2

1-4Red zone TDs2-5

27/45Comp / att22/32

3.2Yards per carry3.6

1Turnovers2

1 (−10 yds)Sacks allowed1 (−7 yds)

8 for 81Penalties5 for 50

29:59Possession30:01

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.037-0.063

Dropback EPA+0.151+0.279

Rush EPA-0.238-0.415

Success rate34%52%

Explosive plays77

Plays6565

Who moved the needle

J.GoffDropbacks: 33+9.2

A.St. BrownTargets: 11+8.9

J.LoveDropbacks: 46+6.9

T.KraftTargets: 6+6.7

S.WilliamsTargets: 3+6.0

C.WatsonTargets: 8+5.0

Cost their side the most

M.GoldenTargets: 12-8.0

J.GibbsCarries: 29-6.6

J.GibbsTargets: 6-2.4

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	27/45	274	6.1	2	1	1-10	54.4	83.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Josh JacobsRB	11	36	3.3	10
MarShawn LloydRB	6	20	3.3	6
Savion WilliamsWR	2	4	2.0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian WatsonWR	5	8	57	11.4	0	28
Josh JacobsRB	5	7	55	11.0	1	25
Tucker KraftTE	4	6	48	12.0	1	22
Savion WilliamsWR	3	3	47	15.7	0	27
Matthew GoldenWR	6	12	39	6.5	0	22
MarShawn LloydRB	2	2	15	7.5	0	6
Jonnu SmithTE	1	1	9	9.0	0	9
Bo MeltonWR	1	2	4	4.0	0	4
Mark RedmanTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD
Isaiah McDuffieLB	11	5	0	0	0
Xavier McKinneyS	10	4	0	0	0
Evan WilliamsS	9	5	0	0	1
Brandon CisseCB	7	5	0	1	2
Ty'Ron HopperLB	7	3	0	0	0
Keisean NixonCB	4	4	0	2	2
Anthony CampbellDT	3	3	1	2	1
Brenton Cox Jr.DE	3	2	0	0	0
Karl BrooksDT	3	2	0	1	0
Devonte WyattDT	3	1	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	1/3	33.3	43	2/2	5

Detroit Lions

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jared GoffQB	22/32	303	9.5	2	0	1-7	57.8	119.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jahmyr GibbsRB	29	116	4.0	15
Sione VakiRB	1	5	5.0	5
Jared GoffQB	2	-1	-0.5	0
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	1	-1	-1.0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Amon-Ra St. BrownWR	9	11	153	17.0	0	40
Jameson WilliamsWR	5	9	91	18.2	2	30
Jahmyr GibbsRB	5	6	27	5.4	0	15
Sam LaPortaTE	1	2	18	18.0	0	18
Isaac TeSlaaWR	1	2	10	10.0	0	10
Tyler ConklinTE	1	1	4	4.0	0	4

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jack CampbellLB	11	8	0	0	0	0
Derrick BarnesLB	6	4	0	0	0	0
Chuck ClarkS	5	3	0	0	1	0
D.J. ReedCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Roger McCrearyCB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Brian BranchS	4	1	0	0	1	0
Khalil DorseyCB	3	3	0	0	1	0
Ennis Rakestraw Jr.CB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Trevor NowaskeLB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Aidan HutchinsonDE	2	1	1	1	1	5

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jake BatesPK	2/2	100.0	40	2/2	8

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Lions run game vs Packers run defense
The Lions' run game ranks 8th in EPA per rush (+0.01, 123 rushes) against a Packers run defense ranked 28th (-0.02 allowed, 150 rushes faced).
8thDET offense20 spots apart28thGB defense
2Lions red-zone offense vs Packers red-zone defense
The Lions' red-zone offense ranks 2nd in red-zone touchdown rate (81%, 21 trips) against a Packers red-zone defense ranked 23rd (68% allowed, 22 trips faced).
2ndDET offense21 spots apart23rdGB defense
3Packers dropback offense vs Lions pass defense
The Packers' dropback offense ranks 13th in EPA per dropback (+0.12, 241 dropbacks) against a Lions pass defense ranked 29th (+0.24 allowed, 245 dropbacks faced).
13thGB offense16 spots apart29thDET defense

When the Packers have the ballEdge GB · +16 ranks

GB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDET pass defense

13th+0.12241 dropbacks

GB +16

+0.24 allowed245 dropbacks faced29th

GB run gameEPA per rushDET run defense

32nd-0.27117 rushes

-0.04 allowed110 rushes faced27th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Lions have the ballEdge DET · +20 ranks

DET dropback offenseEPA per dropbackGB pass defense

3rd+0.28207 dropbacks

-0.08 allowed245 dropbacks faced4th

DET run gameEPA per rushGB run defense

8th+0.01123 rushes

DET +20

-0.02 allowed150 rushes faced28th

Third downNo big edge

GB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDET third-down defense

26th36.0%75 third downs

51.4% allowed70 third downs faced30th

DET third-down offensethird-down conversion rateGB third-down defense

23rd37.3%59 third downs

46.3% allowed82 third downs faced28th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DET · +21 ranks

GB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDET red-zone defense

20th52%21 trips

GB +9

76% allowed21 trips faced29th

DET red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateGB red-zone defense

2nd81%21 trips

DET +21

68% allowed22 trips faced23rd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge GB · +14 ranks

GB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDET defense against big plays

14th9.2%358 plays

GB +14

11.3% allowed355 plays faced28th

DET big-play offenseexplosive-play rateGB defense against big plays

9th10.6%330 plays

5.8% allowed395 plays faced2nd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DET · +10 ranks

GB pass protectionsack rateDET pass rush

14th5.4% sacked241 dropbacks

DET +10

8.2% of dropbacks245 dropbacks faced4th

DET pass protectionsack rateGB pass rush

13th5.3% sacked207 dropbacks

6.1% of dropbacks245 dropbacks faced18th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

GB ball securityturnovers per gameDET takeaway defense

19th1.2 giveaways a game6 games

1.0 takeaways a game5 games20th

DET ball securityturnovers per gameGB takeaway defense

1st0.2 giveaways a game5 games

1.8 takeaways a game6 games1st

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: GB 6 games, 358 offensive and 395 defensive plays · DET 5 games, 330 offensive and 355 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

MarShawn LloydRB→ Josh Jacobs

Aaron BanksLG→ Laken Tomlinson

Sean RhyanC→ John Williams

Devonte WyattRDE→ Dani Dennis-Sutton

Juice ScruggsC→ Cade Mays

Blake MillerRT→ Larry Borom

Tyler LacyRDE→ Skyler Gill-Howard

K.J. BrittMLB→ Jack Campbell

Malcolm RodriguezSLB→ DJ Wonnum

Ennis Rakestraw Jr.RCB→ Keith Abney II

AwayPackers2 next man up · 4 questionable · 4 changes