Broncos 30, Cardinals 16: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · State Farm StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	6	7	14	3	30
ARI	0	6	7	3	16

Home · 3-6ArizonaCardinals16

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:25 PM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Arizona Cardinals 30-16 on Sun, Oct 25 at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Broncos 7-2, Cardinals 3-6. B.Nix (DEN) led all players with +11.2 EPA on 32 dropbacks.

Who won Broncos vs Cardinals?

The Denver Broncos won 30-16. By quarter: DEN 6-7-14-3, ARI 0-6-7-3.

Who was the best player in Broncos vs Cardinals?

By expected points added: B.Nix (DEN, +11.2 EPA on 32 dropbacks), T.McBride (ARI, +6.5 EPA on 13 targets) and J.Coleman (DEN, +2.5 EPA on 9 carries).

What was the turning point of Broncos vs Cardinals?

The biggest swing in win probability (13 points toward the Broncos) came in Q2 at 3:43: (Shotgun) B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Broncos 30, Cardinals 16: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-den-at-ari (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

Broncos37% success · +0.20 EPA/play

3016

Cardinals33% success · −0.11 EPA/play

DEN 99% deserveddeserved 1% ARI

Broncos earned it: the snaps said Broncos by 13.8, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginDEN by 13.8

Real marginDEN by 14

Luck pts DEN+1.3

Luck pts ARI−3.1

The swingQ2 3:57 · DEN · +20 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive Pass InterferenceDEN → helped ARI · Wk 7 Q1 11:19 · 10-B.Nix pass short right to 12-R.Harvey to ARI 1 for 19 yards (42-D.Taylor-Demerson). PENALTY on DEN-82-A.Trautman, Offensive…+7.8 WP
2Defensive HoldingARI → helped DEN · Wk 7 Q1 4:31 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete short right to 20-J.Coleman. PENALTY on ARI-29-D.Burke, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced…+6.1 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DEN · 4th & 1Sean Payton chose Punt at own 24, Wk 7 Q2 12:32, up 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.17 EP
2ARI · 4th & 2Mike LaFleur chose Punt at own 43, Wk 7 Q2 2:13, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.91 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA158 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 13 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCraig Wrolstad20 accepted flags in this game · 17.3 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: DEN by 4.5 · Snaps: DEN by 13.8Broncos covered; the snaps agree

30@16

Week 7Changes the winner

If the 43-yard kick had missed

Cardinals after the play39%what really happened

Q1 1:13 3-W.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-16-J.Crawshaw.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

ARI ▲DEN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+13%Q2 3:43 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
+7%Q3 10:26 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short left to R.Harvey for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
+7%Q2 9:22 · for DEN(No Huddle) J.Brissett up the middle to DEN 20 for no gain (A.Singleton; Q.Robinson).Arizona challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
+6%Q2 8:40 · for ARIJ.Brissett up the middle to DEN 18 for 2 yards (A.Singleton; E.Uwazurike).
+5%Q2 7:22 · for ARI(Shotgun) J.Brissett pass short left to T.McBride to DEN 9 for 9 yards (J.Strnad; A.Singleton).

Every drive, on the field

ARI attacks →← DEN attacks

Q1 15:00FG8p · 29y · 4:00
Q1 11:00PUNT3p · -2y · 1:09
Q1 9:51PUNT4p · 14y · 2:14
Q1 7:37PUNT4p · 7y · 2:12
Q1 5:25FG8p · 22y · 4:17
Q1 1:08FG5p · 60y · 1:52
Q2 14:16PUNT3p · 9y · 1:51
Q2 12:25FG14p · 65y · 7:55
Q2 4:30TD2p · 65y · 0:47
Q2 3:43PUNT3p · 8y · 1:38
Q2 2:05PUNT3p · 8y · 0:23
Q2 1:42PUNT3p · 0y · 1:23
Q2 0:19HALF3p · 3y · 0:19
Q3 15:00PUNT7p · 28y · 3:03
Q3 11:57TD3p · 62y · 1:31
Q3 10:26TD10p · 68y · 6:36
Q3 3:50TD6p · 76y · 3:50
Q4 15:00DOWNS6p · 34y · 2:10
Q4 12:50FG10p · 53y · 4:11
Q4 8:39FG10p · 42y · 2:18
Q4 6:21PUNT7p · 16y · 2:27
Q4 3:54DOWNS13p · 84y · 3:02
Q4 0:52END2p · -2y · 0:52

Broncos10 drives6scoring drives (3 TD)60%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position2three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Cardinals11 drives4scoring drives (1 TD)36%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position3three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:00Field goalW.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.3–0
Q1
1:08Field goalW.Lutz 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.6–0
Q2
14:16Field goalC.Ryland 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.6–3
Q2
4:30Field goalC.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.6–6
Q2
3:43Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix scrambles up the middle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.13–6
Q3
10:26Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short left to R.Harvey for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.20–6
Q3
3:50TouchdownJ.Brissett pass short right to T.McBride for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Ryland extra point is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.20–13
Q3
0:00TouchdownA.Palczewski reported in as eligible. J.Dobbins left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.27–13
Q4
8:39Field goalW.Lutz 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.30–13
Q4
6:21Field goalC.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-C.Kreiter, Holder-B.Gillikin.30–16

Team stats

DENvsARI

377Total yards353

218Passing yards259

159Rushing yards94

6.7Yards per play4.7

18First downs24

3-11 · 27%Third down5-17 · 29%

0-0Fourth down2-4

1-2Red zone TDs1-5

15/29Comp / att27/48

6.1Yards per carry3.9

0Turnovers0

1 (−4 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−13 yds)

11 for 114Penalties9 for 59

26:42Possession33:18

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.202-0.113

Dropback EPA+0.350-0.115

Rush EPA-0.013-0.109

Success rate37%33%

Explosive plays76

Plays5475

Who moved the needle

B.NixDropbacks: 32+11.2

T.McBrideTargets: 13+6.5

J.ColemanCarries: 9+2.5

J.BrissettCarries: 5+2.1

T.AllgeierTargets: 3+1.9

J.WaddleTargets: 7+1.6

Cost their side the most

J.BrissettDropbacks: 53-6.1

K.BourneTargets: 6-5.4

T.AllgeierCarries: 8-3.7

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	15/29	222	7.7	1	0	1-4	79.8	88.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bo NixQB	7	73	10.4	1	62
Jonah ColemanRB	9	54	6.0	0	15
J.K. DobbinsRB	6	23	3.8	1	7
RJ HarveyRB	3	6	2.0	0	3
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
RJ HarveyRB	2	2	54	27.0	1	52
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	2	2	53	26.5	0	47
Jaylen WaddleWR	4	7	48	12.0	0	27
Courtland SuttonWR	3	5	45	15.0	0	20
Jonah ColemanRB	2	2	15	7.5	0	11
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Evan EngramTE	1	3	2	2.0	0	2
Adam TrautmanTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Troy FranklinWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	19	12	1	1	0	2
Brandon JonesS	9	5	0	1	1	0
Justin StrnadLB	6	1	0	0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	5	4	0	0	3	0
Jahdae BarronCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Kris Abrams-DraineCB	4	4	0	0	1	0
Eyioma UwazurikeDE	4	1	0	1	0	2
Riley MossCB	4	1	0	0	1	0
Malcolm RoachDT	3	2	1	1	1	4
Dondrea TillmanLB	3	1	0	1	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	3/3	100.0	48	3/3	12

Arizona Cardinals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jacoby BrissettQB	27/48	272	5.7	1	0	3-13	43.4	79.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Bam KnightRB	7	48	6.9	29
Tyler AllgeierRB	8	19	2.4	7
Jacoby BrissettQB	7	16	2.3	7
Michael WilsonWR	2	11	5.5	7

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Trey McBrideTE	10	13	111	11.1	1	27
Michael WilsonWR	4	8	55	13.8	0	16
Jalen BrooksWR	1	6	35	35.0	0	35
Tyler AllgeierRB	3	3	30	10.0	0	22
Elijah HigginsTE	3	3	17	5.7	0	14
Bam KnightRB	3	5	15	5.0	0	6
Kendrick BourneWR	3	6	9	3.0	0	5

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jack GibbensLB	7	4	0	0	0	0
Kalen KingCB	6	5	0	0	0	0
Kei'Trel ClarkCB	6	2	0	0	1	0
Denzel BurkeCB	4	4	0	0	2	0
Darius RobinsonDE	4	1	1	1	0	1
Cody SimonLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Kitan CrawfordS	3	2	0	0	0	0
Mack Wilson Sr.LB	3	1	0	0	0	0
Josh SweatLB	2	2	0	0	0	0
Dadrion Taylor-DemersonS	2	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chad RylandPK	3/3	100.0	41	1/1	10

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Broncos pass defense vs Cardinals dropback offense
The Broncos' pass defense ranks 5th in EPA per dropback (-0.05 allowed, 243 dropbacks faced) and faces a Cardinals dropback offense ranked 20th (+0.02, 250 dropbacks).
20thARI offense15 spots apart5thDEN defense
2Broncos red-zone offense vs Cardinals red-zone defense
The Broncos' red-zone offense ranks 9th in red-zone touchdown rate (65%, 17 trips) against a Cardinals red-zone defense ranked 27th (73% allowed, 22 trips faced).
9thDEN offense18 spots apart27thARI defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
3Broncos defense against big plays vs Cardinals big-play offense
The Broncos' defense against big plays ranks 19th in explosive-play rate (9.7% allowed, 404 plays faced) and faces a Cardinals big-play offense ranked 32nd (4.5%, 399 plays).
32ndARI offense13 spots apart19thDEN defense

When the Broncos have the ballNo big edge

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackARI pass defense

24th-0.10204 dropbacks

+0.25 allowed194 dropbacks faced30th

DEN run gameEPA per rushARI run defense

13th-0.05138 rushes

-0.13 allowed158 rushes faced8th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Cardinals have the ballEdge DEN · +15 ranks

ARI dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

20th+0.02250 dropbacks

DEN +15

-0.05 allowed243 dropbacks faced5th

ARI run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

17th-0.08149 rushes

ARI +12

-0.01 allowed161 rushes faced29th

Third downEdge ARI · +9 ranks

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateARI third-down defense

30th33.3%78 third downs

ARI +8

43.3% allowed67 third downs faced22nd

ARI third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

15th39.8%88 third downs

ARI +9

44.9% allowed89 third downs faced24th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +18 ranks

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateARI red-zone defense

9th65%17 trips

DEN +18

73% allowed22 trips faced27th

ARI red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

22nd50%22 trips

DEN +10

53% allowed17 trips faced12th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge DEN · +13 ranks

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateARI defense against big plays

30th5.8%342 plays

10.8% allowed352 plays faced25th

ARI big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

32nd4.5%399 plays

DEN +13

9.7% allowed404 plays faced19th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

DEN pass protectionsack rateARI pass rush

6th3.9% sacked204 dropbacks

7.2% of dropbacks194 dropbacks faced11th

ARI pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

8th4.8% sacked250 dropbacks

7.4% of dropbacks243 dropbacks faced9th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +10 ranks

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameARI takeaway defense

11th0.8 giveaways a game6 games

1.2 takeaways a game6 games14th

ARI ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

13th1.0 giveaways a game6 games

DEN +10

1.7 takeaways a game6 games3rd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DEN 6 games, 342 offensive and 404 defensive plays · ARI 6 games, 399 offensive and 352 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Adam PrenticeFB→ RJ Harvey

Evan EngramTE→ Adam Trautman

D.J. JonesNT→ Eyioma Uwazurike

Pat Surtain IILCB→ Jahdae Barron

JL SkinnerFS→ Brandon Jones

Devon KeySS→ Taylor Rapp

Carson BeckQB→ Jacoby Brissett

Tyler AllgeierRB→ Bam Knight

Reggie VirgilWR→ Michael Wilson

Simi FehokoWR→ Jalen Brooks

Devin DuvernayWR→ Kendrick Bourne