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Week 10
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InjuryDohnte Meyers: Active → Clearedjust nowPro Football RumorsFalcons To Sign Jake Moody Off Ravens’ Practice Squad, Release Nick FolkPro Football RumorsBroncos TE Evan Engram Generating Trade Interest49ers Desk49ers earned a 38-17 win over the Raiders from the first snap15 min agoArizona CardinalsYou've Got Mail: Banged Up But Battling ForwardInjuryLucas Patrick: Questionable → Doubtful18 min agoPro Football RumorsPatriots WR A.J. Brown Could Miss Week 10 With Knee IssueBaltimore RavensJesse Minter Could Shake Up Ravens DefenseInjuryMike Evans: Out → Questionable33 min agoESPNBengals trade for Eagles LB Arnold Ebiketie, sources saySaints DeskSaints earned the overtime win over Cleveland, 23-22, on a 71 percent game35 min agoPackers DeskPackers earned the win in New England, and the snaps backed the 45-27 score44 min agoGiants DeskGiants beat the Eagles 19-11 on snaps that were ugly but better than Philadelphia's45 min agoNew York Jets3 Stats to Know | Jets Can Use Opening-Drive Points, Forced Fumbles as Building BlocksBuffalo BillsTop 3 things we learned from Bills at Vikings | MNF Week 9InjuryMike Evans: Questionable → Out51 min agoESPNSources: Vikings inquiring about QBs ahead of trade deadlineDolphins DeskDolphins lost to the Lions 19-9 and the snaps agree with the score54 min agoCowboys DeskCowboys earned the win in Indianapolis, and the snaps say it should not have been close55 min agoESPNSportsbook liability Joe Burrow overtakes Josh Allen as NFL MVP favoriteCleveland BrownsHarold Fannin Jr. named Good Morning Football's Week 9 Angry Runs winnerPro Football RumorsDolphins DT Zach Sieler To Undergo Season-Ending Surgery
WSH ThuNYG NE SunDET BUF SunNYJ CAR SunNO HOU SunCLE JAX SunTEN KC SunATL MIA SunIND MIN SunGB LAR SunARI SEA SunLV SF SunDAL PIT SunCIN LAC MonBAL
The Verdict2026 · AFC South · through Week 9

Jaguars logoJacksonville JaguarsThe Verdict

Jaguars are 6-2; the play says 6.3 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 2-2 in one-score games. On fourth down, Liam Coen kicked away 4 of 4 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 21st of 32−0.36-2 real · 6.3 deserved · 6.6 Pythagorean
Luck points · 21st of 32−4.8fumble bounces −3.5 · opponents' kicks −1.3
Chicken Index · 1st of 32100%Liam Coen · 5.2 expected points lost on 26 graded calls
Flags net · 30th of 32−60.0 WP58 flags for 479 yards against · 70 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 8 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Jaguars logoJaguars46% success · +0.11 EPA/play
3310
Ravens logoRavens32% success · −0.37 EPA/play

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 19.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 19.0
Real marginJAX by 23
Luck pts JAX−6.7
Luck pts BAL+4.3

The swingQ1 14:17 · JAX · +14 pts of win probability. 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 87-N.Boerkircher to BAL 21 for 52 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Colts logoColts40% success · −0.43 EPA/play
742
Jaguars logoJaguars45% success · +0.25 EPA/play

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 30.3, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginJAX by 30.3
Real marginJAX by 35
Luck pts IND−0.3
Luck pts JAX−0.1

The swingQ2 9:11 · IND · −10 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor FUMBLES (Aborted) at JAX 49, RECOVERED by JAX-57-Bry.Thomas at 50. JAX-52-D.Hamilton was injured during the play.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games2-2Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−3.5 ptsKept 3 of 5 own fumbles; won 3 of 9 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−1.3 ptsOpponents made 10 of 11 field goals against an expected 9.8, and 13 of 13 extra points.
Own kicking+4.7 ptsMade 14 of 16 field goals against 12.4 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.2781st of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-2Our pregame model in Jaguars games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Liam Coen · 26 graded fourth downs · went for it 5×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.9 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1JAX · 4th & 1Liam Coen chose Punt at own 21, Wk 3 Q1 13:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.15 EP
  2. 2JAX · 4th & 5Liam Coen chose Go for it at opp 5, Wk 5 Q4 6:40, down 4. Model: Field goal (clear call). Result: stopped.−0.76 EP
  3. 3JAX · 4th & 2Liam Coen chose Punt at own 32, Wk 3 Q1 7:52, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.67 EP
  4. 4JAX · 4th & 1Liam Coen chose Field goal at opp 29, Wk 1 Q2 9:13, up 14. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.65 EP
  5. 5JAX · 4th & 2Liam Coen chose Punt at own 30, Wk 5 Q1 1:25, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.64 EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 7 · opp 18 · Q1 2:049Field goalField goal1.80–2.72✓good
4th & 7 · own 24 · Q2 6:399PuntPunt-1.93-1.38–✓punted
4th & 11 · opp 27 · Q3 12:539Field goalnot graded0.84–2.27good
4th & 5 · own 23 · Q3 7:419Puntnot graded-1.70-1.43–punted
4th & 2 · opp 29 · Q4 13:399Field goalnot graded2.17–2.11good
4th & 2 · opp 15 · Q4 11:559Field goalnot graded3.16–2.80good
4th & 1 · own 33 · Q4 5:009Puntnot graded0.35-0.92–punted
4th & 7 · own 49 · Q1 1:188PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.34-0.35–−0.01punted
4th & 5 · own 23 · Q2 10:568PuntPunt-1.70-1.43–✓punted
4th & 21 · own 11 · Q3 12:488Puntnot graded-3.65-2.21–punted
4th & 13 · own 25 · Q4 11:548Puntnot graded-2.35-1.32–punted
4th & 11 · opp 43 · Q4 7:338Puntnot graded-0.19-0.190.20punted
4th & 5 · own 47 · Q4 2:258Puntnot graded-0.18-0.40–punted
4th & 6 · opp 42 · Q1 12:536PuntField goal (toss-up)0.35-0.170.38−0.55punted
4th & 3 · opp 37 · Q1 8:216Go for itGo for it (toss-up)1.28-0.121.18✓stopped
4th & 7 · own 33 · Q3 8:266PuntPunt-1.35-0.92–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 42 · Q4 2:006Field goalnot graded0.70-0.170.38good
4th & 30 · own 18 · Q1 10:325PuntPunt-3.32-1.73–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 30 · Q1 1:255PuntGo for it-0.42-1.06–−0.64punted
4th & 21 · own 24 · Q2 6:325PuntPunt-2.72-1.38–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 19 · Q2 1:065Go for itnot graded3.47–2.69converted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 0:015Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95stopped
4th & 12 · opp 16 · Q3 7:155Field goalField goal1.70–2.78✓good
4th & 7 · own 35 · Q4 14:075PuntPunt-1.22-0.83–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q4 6:405Go for itField goal2.17–2.93−0.76stopped
4th & 5 · opp 27 · Q4 3:265Go for itnot graded1.48–2.27touchdown
4th & 2 · own 31 · Q4 1:465Puntnot graded-0.35-1.01–punted
4th & 10 · own 20 · Q1 12:274PuntPunt-2.49-1.61–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 37 · Q1 2:234Field goalField goal0.67-0.121.18✓good
4th & 10 · opp 10 · Q2 4:194Field goalField goal1.30–2.89✓good
4th & 10 · opp 36 · Q3 3:054Field goalField goal0.32-0.121.32✓good
4th & 5 · opp 41 · Q4 11:474PuntGo for it (toss-up)0.57-0.160.55−0.73punted
4th & 8 · own 47 · Q4 1:564Puntnot graded-0.57-0.40–punted
4th & 1 · own 21 · Q1 13:143PuntGo for it-0.40-1.55–−1.15punted
4th & 2 · own 32 · Q1 7:523PuntGo for it-0.29-0.96–−0.67punted
4th & 8 · own 27 · Q4 0:343Puntnot graded-1.84-1.21–punted
4th & 8 · 50 · Q1 10:182PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.39-0.32–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 42 · Q1 4:192PuntPunt-1.44-0.56–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 32 · Q2 5:282PuntPunt-1.61-0.96–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q3 9:052Field goalField goal2.17–2.93✓good
4th & 8 · opp 36 · Q4 9:452Field goalField goal0.49-0.121.32✓missed
4th & 11 · own 34 · Q4 4:462Puntnot graded-1.64-0.87–punted
4th & 1 · opp 29 · Q2 9:131Field goalGo for it2.75–2.11−0.65good
4th & 12 · own 22 · Q2 1:451Puntnot graded-2.49-1.49–punted
4th & 9 · opp 22 · Q3 1:521Field goalnot graded1.32–2.57good
4th & 5 · own 39 · Q4 4:471Puntnot graded-0.68-0.67–punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Defensive Too Many Men on Field on JAX in Week 6, worth +10 points of win probability to HOU.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Defensive Too Many Men on FieldJAX → helped HOU · Wk 6 Q3 13:06 · 38-K.Kroeger punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Touchback. PENALTY on JAX, Defensive Too Many Men on Field, 5…+9.5 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingJAX → helped PHI · Wk 5 Q4 11:38 · 33-B.Tuten up the middle to PHI 46 for 10 yards (23-K.Moore; 17-A.Ebiketie). PENALTY on JAX-85-B.Strange, Offensive Holding, 10…+8.5 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped DEN · Wk 2 Q4 7:30 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards,…+7.7 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped PHI · Wk 5 Q3 6:00 · (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 13-D.Wicks (4-Jar.Jones). PENALTY on JAX-4-Jar.Jones, Defensive Pass…+7.7 WP
  5. 5Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped PHI · Wk 5 Q2 9:33 · (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep left to 13-D.Wicks. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 14 yards,…+7.6 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Defensive Pass Interference67243.0
Offensive Holding1615741.9
False Start136415.1
Defensive Too Many Men on Field159.5
Delay of Game4208.9
Face Mask2308.6
Offensive Pass Interference1106.7
Roughing the Passer1156.7

Flags drawn

  1. 1Neutral Zone InfractionBAL → helped JAX · Wk 9 Q1 4:25 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on BAL-92-N.Madubuike, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 42 - No Play.+9.6 WP
  2. 2TrippingHOU → helped JAX · Wk 6 Q4 8:36 · (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud sacked ob at JAX 46 for 0 yards (2-J.Lewis). PENALTY on HOU-4-W.Marks, Tripping, 15 yards, enforced at JAX…+6.7 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingCIN → helped JAX · Wk 4 Q1 12:27 · 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on…+4.8 WP
  4. 4Face MaskNE → helped JAX · Wk 3 Q3 2:16 · (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 3-J.Meyers to NE 5 for 13 yards (7-C.Davis). PENALTY on NE-7-C.Davis, Face Mask, 3…+3.8 WP
  5. 5Neutral Zone InfractionDEN → helped JAX · Wk 2 Q2 5:34 · (Punt formation) PENALTY on DEN-34-J.Skinner, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 27 - No Play.+3.4 WP

Garbage Time Tax

23.6% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 9th most of 32

Bottom lineBhayshul Tuten: 141 of 521 yards (27%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Trevor LawrenceJAX · passing · 1,932 yds18%
Bhayshul TutenJAX · rushing · 521 yds27%
Parker WashingtonJAX · receiving · 493 yds11%
Jakobi MeyersJAX · receiving · 374 yds24%
Brenton StrangeJAX · receiving · 356 yds8%

Our picks on the Jaguars

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Jaguars 75% at ravens. 33-10 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Jaguars 81% at home against colts. 7-42 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 6We gave the Jaguars 69% at home against texans. 34-31 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Jaguars 81% at home against eagles. 17-19 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Jaguars 57% at bengals. 22-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Jaguars 57% at home against patriots. 6-35 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Jaguars 79% at broncos. 13-20 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Jacksonville Jaguars verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/jaguars/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.