Luck Index
Real wins against deserved wins, one-score games, fumble bounces and the kicks the other team missed. Who is due to fall, who is due to rise.
DEN +2.97-2 with 4.1 deserved wins · 6-0 in one-score games
NYJ −2.52-7 with 4.5 deserved wins · 1-5 in one-score games
KC +17.3expected points from recoveries above a 50-50 bounce
LAR −11.8expected points lost to the bounce of the ballThe ladder
All 32 · sorted by luck wins↳Bottom lineDenver Broncos: 7-2 with 4.1 deserved wins (+2.9). New York Jets: 2-7 with 4.5 (−2.5).
?How to read this chart
- One row per team;
- the scale along the bottom counts wins.
- Solid dot = real wins
- (a tie counts as half). Gold ring = deserved wins: each game's deserved win probability added up, the record the team's snaps earned.
- The line joins the two.
- Red: the record is ahead of the play, and that gap usually closes (due to fall). Green: the record is behind the play (due to rise). Longer line, bigger gap.
- The number on the right
- is luck wins: real wins minus deserved wins.
Looking back, not ahead. Deserved wins grade how well a team has played, from every snap of the games already played. They are not a forecast of the games to come. How well they hold up
DEN7-2+2.9 W
BUF7-1+1.4 W
DET6-2+1.3 W
MIN6-2+1.3 W
PIT6-2+1.0 W
CLE5-4+0.8 W
PHI2-7+0.6 W
GB6-3+0.5 W
NE5-4+0.4 W
ARI3-6+0.4 W
LV4-5+0.4 W
NYG5-2-1+0.4 W
NO3-5+0.3 W
CHI7-2+0.2 W
ATL3-6+0.1 W
CIN6-20.0 W
WSH2-5-10.0 W
SF7-1−0.1 WKC6-2−0.1 W
BAL4-5−0.2 W
JAX6-2−0.3 W
DAL4-5−0.3 W
SEA5-4−0.5 W
MIA1-7−0.5 W
CAR3-5−0.7 W
IND2-7−0.8 W
TEN1-7−0.8 W
LAC0-8−1.0 W
HOU3-5−1.2 WLAR5-4−1.6 W
TB3-6−1.7 WNYJ2-7−2.5 WThe luck sheet
Every source of luck, in points| Team | Record | Deserved W | Pyth W | Luck W | 1-score | Fumbles kept | Opp fumbles won | Fumble pts | Opp FG pts | Opp XP pts | Luck pts | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 7-2 | 4.1 | 4.8 | +2.9 | 6-0 | 8/10 | 4/9 | +9.8 | +6.7 | −1.0 | +15.5 | Due to fall |
| BUF | 7-1 | 5.6 | 5.4 | +1.4 | 4-1 | 5/11 | 6/10 | +2.0 | +6.7 | −1.0 | +7.7 | Due to fall |
| DET | 6-2 | 4.7 | 4.8 | +1.3 | 4-1 | 6/9 | 2/4 | +5.5 | +11.1 | +2.0 | +18.6 | Due to fall |
| MIN | 6-2 | 4.7 | 5.1 | +1.3 | 4-1 | 2/5 | 3/5 | 0.0 | +4.0 | +1.5 | +5.5 | Due to fall |
| PIT | 6-2 | 5.0 | 5.0 | +1.0 | 4-1 | 4/6 | 5/8 | +8.3 | −0.9 | −0.6 | +6.8 | Due to fall |
| CLE | 5-4 | 4.2 | 3.5 | +0.8 | 5-2 | 5/12 | 5/14 | −11.4 | +1.7 | −0.9 | −10.6 | About right |
| PHI | 2-7 | 1.4 | 2.5 | +0.6 | 2-3 | 4/7 | 1/7 | −7.9 | −4.2 | +2.0 | −10.1 | About right |
| GB | 6-3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | +0.5 | 3-1 | 7/11 | 6/10 | +9.8 | +0.3 | −1.0 | +9.1 | About right |
| NE | 5-4 | 4.6 | 4.6 | +0.4 | 3-2 | 6/14 | 3/6 | −4.7 | +2.4 | −1.0 | −3.3 | About right |
| ARI | 3-6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | +0.4 | 2-1 | 2/3 | 4/9 | +0.8 | −4.8 | +0.6 | −3.4 | About right |
| LV | 4-5 | 3.6 | 3.9 | +0.4 | 2-2 | 4/7 | 8/12 | +10.2 | +1.5 | −0.6 | +11.1 | About right |
| NYG | 5-2-1 | 5.1 | 4.3 | +0.4 | 4-1 | 5/9 | 3/6 | +1.6 | −0.5 | +1.1 | +2.2 | About right |
| NO | 3-5 | 2.7 | 3.3 | +0.3 | 3-3 | 4/12 | 3/6 | −8.6 | −4.0 | −1.0 | −13.6 | About right |
| CHI | 7-2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | +0.2 | 3-1 | 3/11 | 3/6 | −10.2 | +4.9 | +3.2 | −2.1 | About right |
| ATL | 3-6 | 2.9 | 3.6 | +0.1 | 0-3 | 6/9 | 6/13 | +4.3 | +2.6 | −0.2 | +6.7 | About right |
| CIN | 6-2 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 0.0 | 3-2 | 0/3 | 7/11 | +0.8 | −1.1 | +0.3 | 0.0 | About right |
| WSH | 2-5-1 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 0.0 | 1-3 | 5/8 | 7/8 | +15.7 | +1.6 | −0.2 | +17.1 | About right |
| SF | 7-1 | 7.1 | 5.8 | −0.1 | 3-0 | 1/5 | 5/10 | −5.5 | −3.1 | +0.3 | −8.3 | About right |
| KC | 6-2 | 6.1 | 5.6 | −0.1 | 2-1 | 9/11 | 4/6 | +17.3 | −4.7 | −0.5 | +12.1 | About right |
| BAL | 4-5 | 4.2 | 3.3 | −0.2 | 3-2 | 3/8 | 5/9 | −2.0 | −4.1 | −0.1 | −6.2 | About right |
| JAX | 6-2 | 6.3 | 6.6 | −0.3 | 2-2 | 3/5 | 3/9 | −3.5 | −0.6 | −0.7 | −4.8 | About right |
| DAL | 4-5 | 4.3 | 4.7 | −0.3 | 2-4 | 3/6 | 4/8 | +0.4 | −5.7 | −0.4 | −5.7 | About right |
| SEA | 5-4 | 5.5 | 5.7 | −0.5 | 2-3 | 3/8 | 3/8 | −7.9 | +0.7 | +0.1 | −7.1 | About right |
| MIA | 1-7 | 1.5 | 2.0 | −0.5 | 1-3 | 2/6 | 2/4 | −4.3 | +3.7 | −1.1 | −1.7 | About right |
| CAR | 3-5 | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.7 | 1-3 | 2/6 | 4/8 | −3.5 | −2.5 | −0.2 | −6.2 | About right |
| IND | 2-7 | 2.8 | 3.0 | −0.8 | 1-4 | 1/8 | 4/5 | −6.3 | −2.7 | −1.4 | −10.4 | About right |
| TEN | 1-7 | 1.8 | 2.5 | −0.8 | 1-5 | 3/8 | 3/5 | −2.4 | −0.6 | −1.0 | −4.0 | About right |
| LAC | 0-8 | 1.0 | 1.6 | −1.0 | 0-3 | 4/11 | 4/8 | −6.3 | +0.6 | +0.8 | −4.9 | Due to rise |
| HOU | 3-5 | 4.2 | 4.4 | −1.2 | 1-4 | 3/5 | 4/7 | +4.3 | −2.3 | −0.9 | +1.1 | Due to rise |
| LAR | 5-4 | 6.6 | 5.4 | −1.6 | 2-3 | 2/7 | 2/7 | −11.8 | −0.4 | +0.4 | −11.8 | Due to rise |
| TB | 3-6 | 4.7 | 5.2 | −1.7 | 1-6 | 6/10 | 3/4 | +7.1 | −5.8 | +0.1 | +1.4 | Due to rise |
| NYJ | 2-7 | 4.5 | 3.4 | −2.5 | 1-5 | 4/8 | 8/17 | −1.2 | −0.3 | +0.6 | −0.9 | Due to rise |
Luck W: real wins minus deserved wins (red = record ahead of the play). Fumble pts: recoveries above or below the league rate, times what a recovery is worth. Opp FG/XP pts: points opponents were expected to score on their kicks minus points they scored (positive = they missed on you).
How it works
Deserved wins add up each game's deserved win probability (see Robbed & Lucky). Pythagorean wins use points scored and allowed with an exponent of 2.37. One-score games are those decided by 8 points or fewer: over a full season teams win about half, so a lopsided record there rarely lasts.
Fumble luck. On passes and runs offenses recover 53% of their own fumbles this season. Each recovery above or below that rate is worth the gap between a kept and a lost fumble in expected points. Kicking luck compares every field goal against its make probability by distance (fit on this season's kicks) and every extra point against the league rate (95.0%). A kicker's misses count as luck for the other team.
Pigskin Nightly, "Luck Index, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/verdict/luck (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works