Packers 22, Vikings 39: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 1 · Sun, Sep 13 · U.S. Bank StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
GB	9	10	3	0	22
MIN	3	7	7	22	39

Home · 6-2MinnesotaVikings39

At a glanceUpdated Nov 11, 2026, 12:34 AM ET

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 39-22 on Sun, Sep 13 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN (Week 1, 2026 season). Records after the game: Packers 6-3, Vikings 6-2. J.Jefferson (MIN) led all players with +12.5 EPA on 10 targets.

Who won Packers vs Vikings?

The Minnesota Vikings won 39-22. By quarter: GB 9-10-3-0, MIN 3-7-7-22.

Who was the best player in Packers vs Vikings?

By expected points added: J.Jefferson (MIN, +12.5 EPA on 10 targets), C.Watson (GB, +6.9 EPA on 8 targets) and C.Wentz (MIN, +4.5 EPA on 24 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Packers vs Vikings?

The biggest swing in win probability (19 points toward the Vikings) came in Q4 at 5:01: (Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (Z.Bako-Bewele).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Packers 22, Vikings 39: Week 1 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-13-gb-at-min (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 1 issue →

Week 1EarnedGame file →

Packers39% success · −0.15 EPA/play

2239

Vikings36% success · −0.02 EPA/play

GB 8% deserveddeserved 92% MIN

Vikings earned it: the snaps said Vikings by 7.6, a deserved win probability of 92%.

Deserved marginMIN by 7.6

Real marginMIN by 17

Luck pts GB−0.7

Luck pts MIN−0.7

The swingQ4 5:01 · GB · −15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 10-J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by 43-A.Van Ginkel and 51-B.Cashman). FUMBLES (43-A.Van Ginkel) [51-B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-43-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. 43-A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7…

Flags that moved this game

1Illegal ContactGB → helped MIN · Wk 1 Q4 11:03 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at MIN 24 for -10 yards (sack split by 56-E.Cooper and 95-D.Wyatt). PENALTY on GB-7-J.Bullard,…+8.2 WP
2Defensive HoldingGB → helped MIN · Wk 1 Q4 6:49 · (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle intended for 3-J.Addison INTERCEPTED by 33-E.Williams [98-J.Hargrave] at GB -4.…+6.9 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1GB · 4th & 3Matt LaFleur chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 1 Q2 8:28, up 9. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.82 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA149 plays, one strand1 lead change · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewShawn Hochuli15 accepted flags in this game · 14.4 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: MIN by 1.5 · Snaps: MIN by 7.6Vikings covered; the snaps agree

22@39

Week 1

If the Packers had converted that fourth-and-1

Packers after the play68%what really happened

Q4 13:17 10-J.Love right guard to MIN 17 for no gain (97-D.Orange). (Virtual Measurement).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

MIN ▲GB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+19%Q4 5:01 · for MIN(Shotgun) J.Love sacked at GB 11 for -12 yards (sack split by A.Van Ginkel and B.Cashman). FUMBLES (A.Van Ginkel) [B.Cashman], RECOVERED by MIN-A.Van Ginkel at GB 8. A.Van Ginkel to GB 1 for 7 yards (Z.Bako-Bewele).
+15%Q4 6:37 · for MINA.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. C.Wentz pass to J.Jefferson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
+15%Q1 7:43 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-I.Rodgers was injured during the play. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.
+12%Q4 15:00 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to M.Golden to MIN 26 for 42 yards (J.Metellus).
+11%Q2 1:55 · for MIN(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Wentz pass deep left to J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on GB-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.

Every drive, on the field

MIN attacks →← GB attacks

Q1 15:00INT2p · -1y · 0:46
Q1 14:14FG6p · 12y · 2:03
Q1 12:11PUNT6p · 15y · 4:15
Q1 7:56TD2p · 81y · 0:13
Q1 7:43FG12p · 50y · 6:05
Q1 1:38FG7p · 15y · 2:46
Q2 13:52PUNT6p · 12y · 3:18
Q2 10:34PUNT4p · 37y · 2:14
Q2 8:20PUNT3p · 1y · 2:24
Q2 5:56PUNT3p · -15y · 0:38
Q2 5:18TD7p · 85y · 3:23
Q2 1:55TD7p · 74y · 1:41
Q2 0:14HALF1p · -1y · 0:14
Q3 15:00PUNT5p · 24y · 2:57
Q3 12:03PUNT3p · 4y · 1:08
Q3 10:55FG12p · 79y · 5:46
Q3 5:09TD6p · 28y · 3:01
Q3 2:08DOWNS8p · 54y · 3:57
Q4 13:11TD9p · 83y · 6:34
Q4 6:37FUM3p · -22y · 1:45
Q4 4:52TD1p · 1y · 0:04
Q4 4:48INT2p · 7y · 0:35
Q4 4:13TD3p · 14y · 0:18
Q4 3:55DOWNS11p · 53y · 2:27
Q4 1:28END3p · 1y · 1:28

Packers12 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)42%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position1three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Vikings11 drives6scoring drives (5 TD)55%drives ending in pointsOWN 43avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
12:11Field goalT.Smack 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.3–0
Q1
7:43Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 81 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-I.Rodgers was injured during the play. T.Smack extra point is No Good, Wide Right, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.9–0
Q1
1:38Field goalW.Reichard 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.9–3
Q2
13:52Field goalT.Smack 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.12–3
Q2
1:55Touchdown(No Huddle, Shotgun) C.Wentz pass deep left to J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on GB-L.Van Ness, Defensive Offside, declined. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.12–10
Q2
0:14TouchdownJ.Love pass short right to C.Watson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.19–10
Q3
5:09Field goal T.Smack 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.22–10
Q3
2:08Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Wentz pass deep middle to T.Hockenson for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.22–17
Q4
6:37TouchdownA.Jones left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. C.Wentz pass to J.Jefferson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.22–25
Q4
4:48TouchdownJ.Mason right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.Penalty on GB-B.Sorrell, Defensive Offside, declined. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.22–32
Q4
3:55TouchdownC.Wentz pass short right to J.Jefferson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Reichard extra point is GOOD, Center-A.DePaola, Holder-B.Thorson.22–39

Team stats

GBvsMIN

419Total yards239

353Passing yards132

66Rushing yards107

6.3Yards per play3.9

19First downs19

3-12 · 25%Third down8-15 · 53%

0-2Fourth down0-0

1-4Red zone TDs4-4

21/42Comp / att15/24

3.1Yards per carry3.1

2Turnovers1

4 (−34 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−19 yds)

12 for 98Penalties3 for 15

27:02Possession32:58

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.175-0.020

Dropback EPA-0.059+0.075

Rush EPA-0.429-0.125

Success rate39%36%

Explosive plays92

Plays6759

Who moved the needle

J.JeffersonTargets: 10+12.5

C.WatsonTargets: 8+6.9

C.WentzDropbacks: 24+4.5

J.SmithTargets: 3+4.0

T.HockensonTargets: 5+3.2

T.KraftTargets: 6+1.8

Cost their side the most

M.LloydCarries: 13-3.8

J.MasonCarries: 15-3.0

J.LoveDropbacks: 46-2.7

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	21/42	387	9.2	2	1	4-34	69.5	88.1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
MarShawn LloydRB	13	37	2.8	12
Chris BrooksRB	7	29	4.1	14
Jordan LoveQB	1	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian WatsonWR	6	8	147	24.5	2	81
Matthew GoldenWR	6	12	95	15.8	0	42
Tucker KraftTE	3	6	65	21.7	0	30
Jonnu SmithTE	2	3	50	25.0	0	43
Jayden ReedWR	3	7	20	6.7	0	7
Bo MeltonWR	1	1	10	10.0	0	10
Chris BrooksRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
MarShawn LloydRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Skyy MooreWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Edgerrin CooperLB	7	6	1	2	0	1
Evan WilliamsS	7	6	0	0	0	0
Keisean NixonCB	5	3	0.5	1	1	2
Lukas Van NessDE	4	4	1	1	0	1
Brenton Cox Jr.DE	4	4	0	0	0	0
Jonathan FordDT	4	3	0.5	0	0	1
Zaire FranklinLB	4	2	0	0	0	1
Xavier McKinneyS	3	3	0	0	0	0
Devonte WyattDT	3	3	0	0	0	0
Barryn SorrellDE	3	3	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	3/3	100.0	59	1/2	10

Minnesota Vikings

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Carson WentzQB	12/19	133	7.0	3	0	3-19	75.0	123.5
Kyler MurrayQB	3/5	18	3.6	0	1	0-0	2.9	27.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jordan MasonRB	15	59	3.9	1	28
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	12	40	3.3	1	8
Kyler MurrayQB	2	9	4.5	0	7
Carson WentzQB	5	-1	-0.2	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Justin JeffersonWR	8	9	92	11.5	2	39
T.J. HockensonTE	4	5	36	9.0	1	16
Josh OliverTE	2	4	22	11.0	0	13
DeeJay DallasRB	1	1	1	1.0	0	1
Aaron Jones Sr.RB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jauan JenningsWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Jordan AddisonWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Byron Murphy Jr.CB	8	7	0	0	1	0
Blake CashmanLB	7	5	0.5	2	0	2
Joshua MetellusS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Jalen RedmondDT	4	3	0	0	0	0
Isaiah RodgersCB	3	3	0	0	0	0
James PierreCB	3	3	0	0	2	0
Ivan Pace Jr.LB	3	3	0	1	0	0
Andrew Van GinkelLB	3	2	1.5	1	0	2
Levi Drake RodriguezDT	3	2	1	1	0	2
Eric WilsonLB	3	2	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Will ReichardPK	1/1	100.0	38	4/4	7

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

MarShawn LloydRB→ Chris Brooks

Savion WilliamsWR→ Jayden Reed

Aaron BanksLG→ Zach Bako-Bewele

Travis GloverRG→ Donovan Jennings

Anthony BeltonRT→ Jacob Monk

Isaiah McDuffieLILB→ Edgerrin Cooper

Ty'Ron HopperRILB→ Zaire Franklin

Kirk CousinsQB→ Carson Wentz

Max BredesonFB→ Aaron Jones Sr.

Joe HuberLG→ Donovan Jackson

Caleb BanksNT→ Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins