Browns 12, Jets 17: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 5 · Sun, Oct 11 · MetLife StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
CLE	3	3	0	6	12
NYJ	7	0	0	10	17

Home · 2-7New YorkJets17

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 6:58 PM ET

The New York Jets beat the Cleveland Browns 17-12 on Sun, Oct 11 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ (Week 5, 2026 season). Records after the game: Browns 5-4, Jets 2-7. G.Wilson (NYJ) led all players with +6.3 EPA on 11 targets.

Who won Browns vs Jets?

The New York Jets won 17-12. By quarter: CLE 3-3-0-6, NYJ 7-0-0-10.

Who was the best player in Browns vs Jets?

By expected points added: G.Wilson (NYJ, +6.3 EPA on 11 targets), I.Bond (CLE, +3.7 EPA on 7 targets) and D.Boston (CLE, +2.9 EPA on 7 targets).

What was the turning point of Browns vs Jets?

The biggest swing in win probability (31 points toward the Browns) came in Q4 at 4:20: G.Smith sacked at CLV 48 for -9 yards (C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (C.Schwesinger) [C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLV-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (J.Tippmann; A.Membou).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Browns 12, Jets 17: Week 5 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-11-cle-at-nyj (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 5 issue →

Week 5EarnedGame file →

Browns25% success · −0.33 EPA/play

1217

Jets39% success · −0.17 EPA/play

CLE 5% deserveddeserved 95% NYJ

Jets earned it: the snaps said Jets by 9.1, a deserved win probability of 95%.

Deserved marginNYJ by 9.1

Real marginNYJ by 5

Luck pts CLE+0.8

Luck pts NYJ−1.3

The swingQ4 4:20 · NYJ · −37 pts of win probability. 7-G.Smith sacked at CLE 48 for -9 yards (49-C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (49-C.Schwesinger) [49-C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLE-98-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. 98-A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (66-J.Tippmann; 70-A.Membou).

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingCLE → helped NYJ · Wk 5 Q2 1:22 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 23-R.Sanders to CLE 17 for 6 yards (56-D.Davis). PENALTY on CLE-58-A.Barber, Offensive…+4.8 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceNYJ → helped CLE · Wk 5 Q4 9:18 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Boston. PENALTY on NYJ-21-B.Stephens, Defensive Pass Interference, 14…+4.3 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1NYJ · 4th & 1Aaron Glenn chose Punt at own 40, Wk 5 Q4 10:45, up 4. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.41 EP
2NYJ · 4th & 3Aaron Glenn chose Punt at opp 47, Wk 5 Q3 11:56, up 1. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.90 EP
3CLE · 4th & 2Todd Monken chose Punt at own 15, Wk 5 Q3 3:49, down 1. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA160 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 11 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewBill Vinovich16 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: NYJ by 2.5 · Snaps: NYJ by 9.1Jets covered; the snaps agree

12@17

Week 5Changes the winner

If the Browns had recovered that fumble

Browns after the play29%what really happened

Q2 3:52 32-I.Davis right tackle to 50 for no gain (5-Q.Williams). FUMBLES (5-Q.Williams), recovered by NYJ-7-G.Smith at 50.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NYJ ▲CLE ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+31%Q4 4:20 · for CLEG.Smith sacked at CLV 48 for -9 yards (C.Schwesinger). FUMBLES (C.Schwesinger) [C.Schwesinger], RECOVERED by CLV-A.Huntington at NYJ 48. A.Huntington to NYJ 43 for 5 yards (J.Tippmann; A.Membou).
+30%Q4 6:15 · for CLE(Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.
+25%Q4 4:01 · for NYJ(Punt formation) C.Bojorquez FUMBLES (Aborted) at CLV 42, touched at CLV 28, RECOVERED by NYJ-T.Wallace at CLV 23.
+22%Q4 3:01 · for NYJ(Shotgun) B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.
+15%Q4 6:15 · for NYJA.Szmyt kicks 56 yards from CLV 35 to NYJ 9. I.Williams to NYJ 45 for 36 yards (E.Mascarenas-Arnold).

Every drive, on the field

NYJ attacks →← CLE attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · -1y · 2:11
Q1 12:49TD8p · 80y · 3:32
Q1 9:17FG12p · 67y · 5:50
Q1 3:27PUNT3p · -11y · 1:40
Q1 1:47PUNT3p · 3y · 0:51
Q1 0:56PUNT5p · 20y · 2:32
Q2 13:24FG9p · 31y · 3:10
Q2 10:14PUNT3p · 0y · 1:42
Q2 8:32PUNT3p · -4y · 2:19
Q2 6:13PUNT9p · 21y · 4:51
Q2 1:22PUNT5p · 26y · 1:22
Q3 15:00PUNT6p · 25y · 3:13
Q3 11:47PUNT3p · 2y · 1:36
Q3 10:11FUM9p · 40y · 4:22
Q3 5:49PUNT3p · 8y · 2:11
Q3 3:38FG9p · 27y · 4:01
Q4 14:37PUNT5p · 2y · 2:29
Q4 12:08PUNT3p · 9y · 1:30
Q4 10:38TD9p · 86y · 4:23
Q4 6:15FUM4p · 3y · 2:02
Q4 4:13FUM4p · -29y · 0:21
Q4 3:52TD3p · 23y · 0:51
Q4 3:01PUNT4p · 2y · 0:55
Q4 2:06PUNT3p · 6y · 0:25
Q4 1:41FUM4p · -2y · 0:57
Q4 0:44END2p · -2y · 0:44

Browns13 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)23%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position5three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Jets12 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)25%drives ending in pointsOWN 35avg starting field position4three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
9:17Touchdown(Shotgun) G.Smith pass short right to G.Wilson for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.0–7
Q1
3:27Field goalA.Szmyt 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.3–7
Q2
10:14Field goalA.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.6–7
Q4
14:37Field goalJ.Sanders 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.6–10
Q4
6:15Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Watson pass deep left to D.Boston for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Szmyt extra point is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.12–10
Q4
3:01Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Allen left tackle for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Sanders extra point is GOOD, Center-T.Hennessy, Holder-A.McNamara.12–17

Team stats

CLEvsNYJ

198Total yards276

102Passing yards142

96Rushing yards134

3.0Yards per play4.2

13First downs14

4-16 · 25%Third down8-17 · 47%

0-2Fourth down0-0

0-1Red zone TDs0-2

15/33Comp / att17/30

4.0Yards per carry4.2

2Turnovers2

8 (−53 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−40 yds)

6 for 30Penalties10 for 102

28:35Possession31:25

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.297-0.176

Dropback EPA-0.237-0.363

Rush EPA-0.420+0.049

Success rate25%39%

Explosive plays77

Plays6564

Who moved the needle

G.WilsonTargets: 11+6.3

I.BondTargets: 7+3.7

D.BostonTargets: 7+2.9

M.TaylorTargets: 3+1.5

T.PatrickTargets: 3+1.5

B.AllenCarries: 24+0.9

Cost their side the most

G.SmithDropbacks: 35-12.7

D.WatsonDropbacks: 44-10.4

K.SadiqTargets: 3-6.2

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Deshaun WatsonQB	15/33	155	4.7	1	0	8-53	13.5	69.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Quinshon JudkinsRB	14	44	3.1	14
Deshaun WatsonQB	6	40	6.7	20
Raheim SandersRB	3	12	4.0	5
Corey BojorquezP	1	0	0.0	0

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Isaiah BondWR	3	7	74	24.7	0	30
Denzel BostonWR	3	7	46	15.3	1	29
Jerry JeudyWR	3	7	19	6.3	0	12
Quinshon JudkinsRB	3	4	6	2.0	0	3
KC ConcepcionWR	1	1	5	5.0	0	5
Harold Fannin Jr.TE	1	4	4	4.0	0	4
Raheim SandersRB	1	1	1	1.0	0	1
Jaleel McLaughlinRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Quincy WilliamsLB	11	7	0	1	1	0
Carson SchwesingerLB	8	5	1	1	1	1
Denzel WardCB	7	4	0	0	0	0
Grant DelpitS	5	3	0	1	1	0
Tyson CampbellCB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Myles HardenCB	5	2	0	0	0	0
Adin HuntingtonDE	5	1	0.5	0	0	1
Sam WilliamsLB	4	4	0	2	0	0
Maliek CollinsDT	4	2	1.5	2	0	3
Sam KamaraDT	4	1	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andre SzmytPK	2/2	100.0	41	0/1	6

New York Jets

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Geno SmithQB	17/30	182	6.1	1	0	4-40	24.8	85.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Braelon AllenRB	24	116	4.8	1	22
Isaiah DavisRB	2	8	4.0	0	8
Geno SmithQB	5	7	1.4	0	5
Isaiah WilliamsWR	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Garrett WilsonWR	7	11	104	14.9	1	32
Tim PatrickWR	2	3	26	13.0	0	14
Mason TaylorTE	3	3	24	8.0	0	9
Isaiah WilliamsWR	1	2	16	16.0	0	16
Isaiah DavisRB	1	2	9	9.0	0	9
Kenyon SadiqTE	2	3	3	1.5	0	4
Jelani WoodsTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Braelon AllenRB	1	4	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Dane BeltonS	8	3	1	1	0	1
David BaileyLB	7	5	3	3	0	4
Jarvis Brownlee Jr.CB	6	5	1	2	0	1
Minkah FitzpatrickS	5	4	0	0	1	0
Jamien SherwoodLB	4	3	0	0	1	1
Darrell Jackson Jr.DT	4	2	1	1	2	1
Will McDonald IVDE	4	1	1	0	0	2
Demario DavisLB	4	1	0	0	0	1
Brandon StephensCB	3	3	0	0	1	0
Jowon BriggsDT	3	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Jason SandersPK	1/1	100.0	54	2/2	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 4 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Browns pass rush vs Jets pass protection
The Browns' pass rush ranks 9th in sack rate (7.5% of dropbacks, 160 dropbacks faced) and faces a Jets pass protection ranked 29th (8.7% sacked, 138 dropbacks).
29thNYJ offense20 spots apart9thCLE defense
2Jets run defense vs Browns run game
The Jets' run defense ranks 12th in EPA per rush (-0.11 allowed, 104 rushes faced) and faces a Browns run game ranked 31st (-0.30, 83 rushes).
31stCLE offense19 spots apart12thNYJ defense
3Jets third-down defense vs Browns third-down offense
The Jets' third-down defense ranks 12th in third-down conversion rate (37.8% allowed, 45 third downs faced) and faces a Browns third-down offense ranked 30th (32.6%, 46 third downs).
30thCLE offense18 spots apart12thNYJ defense

When the Browns have the ballEdge NYJ · +19 ranks

CLE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNYJ pass defense

12th+0.15141 dropbacks

CLE +8

+0.08 allowed143 dropbacks faced20th

CLE run gameEPA per rushNYJ run defense

31st-0.3083 rushes

NYJ +19

-0.11 allowed104 rushes faced12th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Jets have the ballNo big edge

NYJ dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCLE pass defense

13th+0.14138 dropbacks

+0.04 allowed160 dropbacks faced13th

NYJ run gameEPA per rushCLE run defense

25th-0.1788 rushes

-0.02 allowed95 rushes faced24th

Third downEdge NYJ · +18 ranks

CLE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNYJ third-down defense

30th32.6%46 third downs

NYJ +18

37.8% allowed45 third downs faced12th

NYJ third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCLE third-down defense

26th34.7%49 third downs

CLE +10

39.6% allowed53 third downs faced16th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge CLE · +15 ranks

CLE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNYJ red-zone defense

22nd50%10 trips

NYJ +13

56% allowed16 trips faced9th

NYJ red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCLE red-zone defense

22nd50%10 trips

CLE +15

50% allowed12 trips faced7th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge NYJ · +15 ranks

CLE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNYJ defense against big plays

24th7.6%224 plays

NYJ +15

8.5% allowed247 plays faced9th

NYJ big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCLE defense against big plays

19th8.8%226 plays

NYJ +11

11.8% allowed255 plays faced30th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CLE · +20 ranks

CLE pass protectionsack rateNYJ pass rush

25th7.8% sacked141 dropbacks

NYJ +10

6.3% of dropbacks143 dropbacks faced15th

NYJ pass protectionsack rateCLE pass rush

29th8.7% sacked138 dropbacks

CLE +20

7.5% of dropbacks160 dropbacks faced9th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge NYJ · +16 ranks

CLE ball securityturnovers per gameNYJ takeaway defense

13th1.0 giveaways a game4 games

CLE +9

0.8 takeaways a game4 games22nd

NYJ ball securityturnovers per gameCLE takeaway defense

1st0.3 giveaways a game4 games

NYJ +16

1.0 takeaways a game4 games17th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: CLE 4 games, 224 offensive and 255 defensive plays · NYJ 4 games, 226 offensive and 247 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Michael BurtonFB→ Raheim Sanders

KC ConcepcionWR→ Isaiah Bond

Mason GrahamLDT→ Sam Kamara

Easton Mascarenas-ArnoldWLB→ Adin Huntington

Breece HallRB→ Braelon Allen

Omar Cooper Jr.WR→ Tim Patrick

Adonai MitchellWR→ Isaiah Williams

Dylan ParhamLG→ Jordan Meredith

Jowon BriggsRDT→ T'Vondre Sweat

Trevin WallaceSLB→ Will McDonald IV

AwayBrowns2 questionable · 4 changes