Jaguars 13, Broncos 20: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 2 · Sun, Sep 20 · Empower Field at Mile HighFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
JAX	0	10	3	0	13
DEN	0	3	3	14	20

Home · 7-2DenverBroncos20

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 11:29 PM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 20-13 on Sun, Sep 20 at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO (Week 2, 2026 season). Records after the game: Jaguars 6-2, Broncos 7-2. J.Waddle (DEN) led all players with +8.7 EPA on 10 targets.

Who won Jaguars vs Broncos?

The Denver Broncos won 20-13. By quarter: JAX 0-10-3-0, DEN 0-3-3-14.

Who was the best player in Jaguars vs Broncos?

By expected points added: J.Waddle (DEN, +8.7 EPA on 10 targets), B.Nix (DEN, +8.4 EPA on 31 dropbacks) and N.Adkins (DEN, +3.7 EPA on 3 targets).

What was the turning point of Jaguars vs Broncos?

The biggest swing in win probability (15 points toward the Broncos) came in Q4 at 7:30: (Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton.PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.PENALTY on JAX, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 3 yards, enforced between downs.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Jaguars 13, Broncos 20: Week 2 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-20-jax-at-den (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 2 issue →

Week 2EarnedGame file →

Jaguars44% success · −0.05 EPA/play

1320

Broncos48% success · +0.12 EPA/play

JAX 7% deserveddeserved 93% DEN

Broncos earned it: the snaps said Broncos by 8.2, a deserved win probability of 93%.

Deserved marginDEN by 8.2

Real marginDEN by 7

Luck pts JAX−0.6

Luck pts DEN+1.5

The swingQ4 11:53 · DEN · +16 pts of win probability. 10-B.Nix pass short right to 45-N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped DEN · Wk 2 Q4 7:30 · (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to 14-C.Sutton. PENALTY on JAX-12-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards,…+7.7 WP
2Illegal Block Above the WaistJAX → helped DEN · Wk 2 Q2 2:08 · (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short left to 33-B.Tuten to JAX 34 for 14 yards (40-J.Strnad; 9-T.Hufanga). PENALTY on…+4.9 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Punt at own 31, Wk 2 Q1 2:12, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.66 EP
2DEN · 4th & 2Sean Payton chose Field goal at opp 2, Wk 2 Q2 7:03, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.34 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA134 plays, one strand1 lead change · 13 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewJohn Hussey13 accepted flags in this game · 13.9 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: DEN by 2.5 · Snaps: DEN by 8.2Broncos covered; the snaps agree

13@20

Week 2Changes the winner

If the Jaguars kicker had made it from 54

Jaguars after the play39%what really happened

Q4 9:45 39-C.Little 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

DEN ▲JAX ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+15%Q4 7:30 · for DEN(Shotgun) B.Nix pass incomplete deep right to C.Sutton.PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at JAX 28 - No Play.PENALTY on JAX, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 3 yards, enforced between downs.
+11%Q4 11:47 · for DENB.Nix pass short right to N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.
+10%Q4 11:11 · for JAX(No Huddle, Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep left to J.Meyers to DEN 38 for 28 yards (T.Hufanga).
+10%Q2 2:15 · for JAX(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep left intended for C.Sutton INTERCEPTED by J.Lewis at JAX -8. Touchback.
+10%Q2 13:06 · for JAX(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep middle to P.Washington to DEN 1 for 32 yards (B.Jones).

Every drive, on the field

DEN attacks →← JAX attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 0y · 1:58
Q1 13:02PUNT6p · 22y · 2:52
Q1 10:10PUNT4p · 14y · 3:00
Q1 7:10PUNT6p · 4y · 3:00
Q1 4:10PUNT5p · 20y · 2:05
Q1 2:05TD8p · 72y · 4:52
Q2 12:13FG8p · 58y · 5:12
Q2 7:01PUNT3p · 1y · 1:43
Q2 5:18INT8p · 76y · 3:10
Q2 2:08FG7p · 54y · 2:08
Q3 15:00FG11p · 64y · 5:58
Q3 9:02FG8p · 45y · 4:04
Q3 4:58INT5p · 18y · 3:25
Q3 1:33TD10p · 64y · 4:46
Q4 11:47MISS7p · 32y · 2:05
Q4 9:42TD5p · 56y · 2:21
Q4 7:21PUNT5p · 14y · 2:40
Q4 4:41END10p · 59y · 4:41

Jaguars9 drives3scoring drives (1 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Broncos8 drives4scoring drives (2 TD)50%drives ending in pointsOWN 26avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q2
12:13Touchdown(Shotgun) W.Milum reported in as eligible. Direct snap to B.Tuten. B.Tuten right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.7–0
Q2
7:01Field goal W.Lutz 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.7–3
Q2
0:00Field goal C.Little 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.10–3
Q3
9:02Field goal C.Little 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.13–3
Q3
4:58Field goal W.Lutz 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.13–6
Q4
11:47TouchdownB.Nix pass short right to N.Adkins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.13–13
Q4
7:21TouchdownJ.Coleman right tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.13–20

Team stats

JAXvsDEN

268Total yards392

173Passing yards288

95Rushing yards104

4.9Yards per play6.6

21First downs22

5-12 · 42%Third down4-11 · 36%

0-0Fourth down0-0

1-2Red zone TDs2-5

17/29Comp / att22/31

4.0Yards per carry3.7

1Turnovers1

2 (−16 yds)Sacks allowed0

4 for 40Penalties10 for 53

28:43Possession31:17

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.048+0.124

Dropback EPA-0.133+0.272

Rush EPA+0.062-0.058

Success rate44%48%

Explosive plays59

Plays5556

Who moved the needle

J.WaddleTargets: 10+8.7

B.NixDropbacks: 31+8.4

N.AdkinsTargets: 3+3.7

B.TutenCarries: 13+1.2

A.AbdullahCarries: 3+0.6

J.ColemanTargets: 3+0.3

Cost their side the most

T.LawrenceDropbacks: 31-4.1

J.DobbinsCarries: 10-3.2

C.SuttonTargets: 4-2.5

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Trevor LawrenceQB	17/29	189	6.5	0	1	2-16	53.3	63.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bhayshul TutenRB	13	65	5.0	1	16
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	6	13	2.2	0	7
Ameer AbdullahRB	3	11	3.7	0	9
Trevor LawrenceQB	2	6	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	LONG
Parker WashingtonWR	7	12	98	14.0	32
Brian Thomas Jr.WR	3	9	40	13.3	22
Jakobi MeyersWR	1	1	28	28.0	28
Brenton StrangeTE	2	2	17	8.5	14
Quintin MorrisTE	1	1	7	7.0	7
Ameer AbdullahRB	1	1	2	2.0	2
LeQuint Allen Jr.RB	0	1	0	0.0	0
Bhayshul TutenRB	2	2	-3	-1.5	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Foyesade OluokunLB	7	5	0	0	0
Ventrell MillerLB	7	3	0	0	0
Antonio JohnsonS	6	4	0	0	0
Dennis GardeckLB	5	5	1	0	2
DaVon HamiltonDT	5	2	0	0	0
Jourdan LewisCB	4	4	0	1	0
Montaric BrownCB	4	4	0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	4	4	0	1	0
Josh Hines-AllenDE	3	0	0	0	0
Travon WalkerDE	3	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cam LittlePK	2/3	66.7	44	1/1	7

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	22/31	288	9.3	1	1	0-0	82.2	97.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonah ColemanRB	10	39	3.9	1	12
J.K. DobbinsRB	10	36	3.6	0	15
Pat BryantWR	1	16	16.0	0	16
Nate AdkinsTE	1	6	6.0	0	6
Bo NixQB	5	6	1.2	0	8
Tyler BadieRB	1	1	1.0	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jaylen WaddleWR	8	10	138	17.3	0	49
Nate AdkinsTE	3	3	32	10.7	1	18
Tyler BadieRB	2	3	28	14.0	0	27
Troy FranklinWR	1	2	27	27.0	0	27
Courtland SuttonWR	3	4	25	8.3	0	10
Jonah ColemanRB	3	3	19	6.3	0	8
Evan EngramTE	1	1	17	17.0	0	17
Adam PrenticeFB	1	1	2	2.0	0	2
Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Pat BryantWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Alex SingletonLB	9	5	0	0	1	0
Justin StrnadLB	7	3	0	1	0	0
Talanoa HufangaS	6	5	0	1	0	0
Pat Surtain IICB	6	3	0	0	1	0
Brandon JonesS	5	4	0	0	0	0
Malcolm RoachDT	4	3	1	2	0	2
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Que RobinsonLB	3	2	1	1	0	1
Jonah EllissLB	3	1	0	0	1	0
Riley MossCB	2	2	0	0	3	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	2/2	100.0	45	2/2	8

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Walker LittleLT→ Anton Harrison

Davon GodchauxRDT→ DaVon Hamilton

Jourdan LewisNB→ Jarrian Jones

Jessie Bates IIISS→ Eric Murray

Adam PrenticeFB→ J.K. Dobbins

Troy FranklinWR→ Pat Bryant

Evan EngramTE→ Adam Trautman

Jonathon CooperWLB→ Jonah Elliss

JL SkinnerFS→ Talanoa Hufanga

Devon KeySS→ Brandon Jones

AwayJaguars4 changes