Packers 45, Patriots 27: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Gillette StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
GB	14	10	18	3	45
NE	0	14	7	6	27

Home · 5-4New EnglandPatriots27

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 10:57 PM ET

The Green Bay Packers beat the New England Patriots 45-27 on Sun, Nov 8 at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Packers 6-3, Patriots 5-4. J.Love (GB) led all players with +25.0 EPA on 33 dropbacks.

Who won Packers vs Patriots?

The Green Bay Packers won 45-27. By quarter: GB 14-10-18-3, NE 0-14-7-6.

Who was the best player in Packers vs Patriots?

By expected points added: J.Love (GB, +25.0 EPA on 33 dropbacks), C.Watson (GB, +14.6 EPA on 8 targets) and M.Golden (GB, +13.2 EPA on 10 targets).

What was the turning point of Packers vs Patriots?

The biggest swing in win probability (12 points toward the Packers) came in Q1 at 14:32: D.Maye pass deep left intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney at 50. X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (M.Pryor).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Packers 45, Patriots 27: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-08-gb-at-ne (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9EarnedGame file →

Packers46% success · +0.26 EPA/play

4527

Patriots44% success · −0.10 EPA/play

GB >99% deserveddeserved <1% NE

Packers earned it: the snaps said Packers by 17.0, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginGB by 17.0

Real marginGB by 18

Luck pts GB+1.9

Luck pts NE−3.6

The swingQ1 14:32 · NE · −15 pts of win probability. 10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.Pryor).

Flags that moved this game

1Neutral Zone InfractionNE → helped GB · Wk 9 Q1 2:36 · (Shotgun) PENALTY on NE-50-G.Jacas, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at GB 20 - No Play.+4.0 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceNE → helped GB · Wk 9 Q1 9:23 · (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right intended for 16-B.Melton INTERCEPTED by 0-C.Gonzalez at NE 8. 0-C.Gonzalez to NE 8 for no…+2.4 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA147 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 22 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Kemp8 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: NE by 3 · Snaps: GB by 17.0Packers covered; the snaps agree

45@27

Week 9Changes the winner

If that interception had fallen incomplete

Patriots after the play38%what really happened

Q1 14:32 10-D.Maye pass deep left intended for 13-M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by 29-X.McKinney at 50. 29-X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (65-M.Pryor).

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

NE ▲GB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+12%Q1 14:32 · for GBD.Maye pass deep left intended for M.Hollins INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney at 50. X.McKinney pushed ob at NE 14 for 36 yards (M.Pryor).
+10%Q2 9:23 · for NE(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep left to R.Stevenson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.
+7%Q1 10:47 · for GB(No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Love pass deep right to M.Golden to NE 18 for 49 yards (K.Byard).
+7%Q2 5:47 · for GB(Shotgun) D.Maye pass short left intended for E.Raridon INTERCEPTED by X.McKinney at GB 29. X.McKinney to GB 31 for 2 yards (H.Henry).
+7%Q1 13:19 · for GB(Shotgun) J.Love scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.

Every drive, on the field

NE attacks →← GB attacks

Q1 15:00INT2p · 1y · 0:46
Q1 14:14TD2p · 14y · 0:55
Q1 13:19PUNT3p · -6y · 1:35
Q1 11:44TD7p · 86y · 3:45
Q1 7:59PUNT8p · 18y · 2:46
Q1 5:13FG12p · 75y · 6:36
Q2 13:37INT2p · 12y · 0:51
Q2 12:46PUNT3p · -1y · 1:39
Q2 11:07TD5p · 68y · 1:44
Q2 9:23PUNT4p · 17y · 2:19
Q2 7:04INT3p · 36y · 1:26
Q2 5:38TD3p · 69y · 0:53
Q2 4:45TD4p · 64y · 2:08
Q2 2:37DOWNS4p · 7y · 0:49
Q2 1:48PUNT5p · 11y · 0:57
Q2 0:51HALF2p · 2y · 0:51
Q3 15:00TD7p · 70y · 4:09
Q3 10:51PUNT3p · 7y · 2:07
Q3 8:44FG7p · 45y · 3:31
Q3 5:13FUM2p · 2y · 0:57
Q3 4:16TD1p · 39y · 0:06
Q3 4:10TD7p · 77y · 2:59
Q3 1:11FG7p · 58y · 4:20
Q4 11:51PUNT7p · 23y · 2:34
Q4 9:17PUNT3p · 3y · 2:21
Q4 6:56TD8p · 57y · 3:02
Q4 3:54PUNT5p · 10y · 2:47
Q4 1:07END2p · 21y · 1:07

Packers13 drives8scoring drives (5 TD)62%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Patriots13 drives4scoring drives (4 TD)31%drives ending in pointsOWN 32avg starting field position2three-and-outs4turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
13:19Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love scrambles up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.7–0
Q1
7:59Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short middle to M.Golden for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.14–0
Q2
13:37Field goalT.Smack 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.17–0
Q2
9:23Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep left to R.Stevenson for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.17–7
Q2
4:45TouchdownK.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.24–7
Q2
2:37TouchdownD.Maye pass short left to E.Chism for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky.24–14
Q3
10:51Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Love pass short left to S.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. T.Smack extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.31–14
Q3
5:13Field goal T.Smack 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.34–14
Q3
4:10TouchdownJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Love rushes up the middle. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.42–14
Q3
1:11Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to M.Hollins for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. A.Borregales extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Ashby, Holder-M.Wishnowsky. ** Injury Update: NE-C.Latu has returned to the game.42–21
Q4
11:51Field goal T.Smack 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Orzech, Holder-D.Whelan.45–21
Q4
3:54TouchdownC.Kiner left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-I.McDuffie was injured during the play. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.DeVito pass to K.Williams is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.45–27

Team stats

GBvsNE

478Total yards387

349Passing yards293

129Rushing yards94

7.5Yards per play6.3

22First downs22

4-12 · 33%Third down4-9 · 44%

0-1Fourth down0-0

4-5Red zone TDs2-2

23/29Comp / att22/41

4.0Yards per carry5.9

0Turnovers4

3 (−23 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−27 yds)

3 for 14Penalties5 for 31

35:01Possession24:59

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.289-0.135

Dropback EPA+0.759-0.221

Rush EPA-0.195+0.133

Success rate46%44%

Explosive plays1112

Plays6562

Who moved the needle

J.LoveDropbacks: 33+25.0

C.WatsonTargets: 8+14.6

M.GoldenTargets: 10+13.2

E.ChismTargets: 5+5.7

D.DouglasTargets: 9+3.8

H.HenryTargets: 3+3.5

Cost their side the most

D.MayeDropbacks: 43-10.0

K.WilliamsTargets: 3-5.1

M.HollinsTargets: 6-4.2

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Jordan LoveQB	23/29	372	12.8	3	0	3-23	98.0	153.2

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Kaleb JohnsonRB	14	68	4.9	1	34
Pierre Strong Jr.RB	8	22	2.8	0	8
Savion WilliamsWR	3	13	4.3	0	13
Jordan LoveQB	1	13	13.0	1	13
Tucker KraftTE	2	8	4.0	0	8
Josh JacobsRB	4	5	1.3	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Christian WatsonWR	7	8	171	24.4	1	43
Matthew GoldenWR	10	10	164	16.4	1	49
Savion WilliamsWR	3	4	25	8.3	1	10
Pierre Strong Jr.RB	2	2	11	5.5	0	7
Tucker KraftTE	1	3	1	1.0	0	1

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Isaiah McDuffieLB	10	5	1	2	0	1
Nick NiemannLB	7	5	0	0	1	0
Evan WilliamsS	5	4	0	0	1	0
Xavier McKinneyS	4	2	0	0	2	0
Dani Dennis-SuttonDE	4	1	0.5	0	0	1
Keisean NixonCB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Barryn SorrellDE	3	2	0	0	0	0
Javon BullardS	3	2	0	0	0	0
Brandon CisseCB	3	1	0	0	1	0
Kitan OladapoS	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Trey SmackPK	3/3	100.0	51	4/4	13

New England Patriots

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Drake MayeQB	21/38	299	7.9	3	3	4-27	32.0	74.3
Tommy DeVitoQB	1/3	21	7.0	0	0	0-0	44.7	59.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Corey KinerRB	8	55	6.9	1	20
Rhamondre StevensonRB	6	32	5.3	0	19
Lan LarisonRB	1	4	4.0	0	4
Drake MayeQB	1	3	3.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
DeMario DouglasWR	5	9	102	20.4	0	36
Eli RaridonTE	3	6	52	17.3	0	28
Efton Chism IIIWR	5	5	49	9.8	1	21
Rhamondre StevensonRB	3	4	46	15.3	1	30
Mack HollinsWR	3	6	36	12.0	1	22
Hunter HenryTE	3	3	35	11.7	0	21
Kyle WilliamsWR	0	2	0	0.0	0	0
Lan LarisonRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Christian GonzalezCB	10	9	0	0	1	0
Marcus JonesCB	6	3	0	1	0	0
Christian EllissLB	5	2	0	1	0	0
Craig WoodsonS	5	4	0	1	0	0
Robert SpillaneLB	4	0	0	0	0	0
Christian BarmoreDT	4	2	1	1	0	1
Kevin ByardS	3	3	0	0	0	0
Cory DurdenDT	3	2	0	1	0	0
Jaylen ReedS	3	0	0	0	0	0
Dre'Mont JonesDE	3	1	0.5	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Andy BorregalesPK	0/0	0.0	0	3/3	3

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Packers takeaway defense vs Patriots ball security
The Packers' takeaway defense ranks 1st in turnovers per game (1.9 takeaways a game, 8 games) and faces a Patriots ball security ranked 30th (1.9 giveaways a game, 8 games).
30thNE offense29 spots apart1stGB defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters
2Patriots run defense vs Packers run game
The Patriots' run defense ranks 14th in EPA per rush (-0.09 allowed, 180 rushes faced) and faces a Packers run game ranked 32nd (-0.24, 162 rushes).
32ndGB offense18 spots apart14thNE defense
3Patriots third-down offense vs Packers third-down defense
The Patriots' third-down offense ranks 11th in third-down conversion rate (43.3%, 97 third downs) against a Packers third-down defense ranked 23rd (43.6% allowed, 110 third downs faced).
11thNE offense12 spots apart23rdGB defense

When the Packers have the ballEdge NE · +18 ranks

GB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackNE pass defense

13th+0.13328 dropbacks

+0.07 allowed290 dropbacks faced19th

GB run gameEPA per rushNE run defense

32nd-0.24162 rushes

NE +18

-0.09 allowed180 rushes faced14th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Patriots have the ballEdge GB · +12 ranks

NE dropback offenseEPA per dropbackGB pass defense

6th+0.21283 dropbacks

-0.05 allowed325 dropbacks faced5th

NE run gameEPA per rushGB run defense

23rd-0.14202 rushes

GB +12

-0.10 allowed205 rushes faced11th

Third downEdge NE · +12 ranks

GB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateNE third-down defense

21st38.7%106 third downs

NE +11

38.1% allowed97 third downs faced10th

NE third-down offensethird-down conversion rateGB third-down defense

11th43.3%97 third downs

NE +12

43.6% allowed110 third downs faced23rd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge NE · +12 ranks

GB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateNE red-zone defense

20th54%28 trips

NE +12

48% allowed25 trips faced8th

NE red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateGB red-zone defense

26th50%24 trips

GB +12

58% allowed31 trips faced14th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsNo big edge

GB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateNE defense against big plays

19th9.0%490 plays

9.1% allowed470 plays faced15th

NE big-play offenseexplosive-play rateGB defense against big plays

8th10.5%485 plays

6.0% allowed530 plays faced3rd

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

GB pass protectionsack rateNE pass rush

7th4.3% sacked328 dropbacks

7.6% of dropbacks290 dropbacks faced6th

NE pass protectionsack rateGB pass rush

13th5.7% sacked283 dropbacks

6.8% of dropbacks325 dropbacks faced12th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge GB · +29 ranks

GB ball securityturnovers per gameNE takeaway defense

17th1.3 giveaways a game8 games

1.0 takeaways a game8 games19th

NE ball securityturnovers per gameGB takeaway defense

30th1.9 giveaways a game8 games

GB +29

1.9 takeaways a game8 games1st

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: GB 8 games, 490 offensive and 530 defensive plays · NE 8 games, 485 offensive and 470 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

MarShawn LloydRB→ Pierre Strong Jr.

Sean RhyanC→ John Williams

Travis GloverRG→ Laken Tomlinson

Ty'Ron HopperRILB→ Nick Niemann

TreVeyon HendersonRB→ Rhamondre Stevenson

Corey KinerFB→ Lan Larison

A.J. BrownWR→ Kyle Williams

Hunter HenryTE→ Eli Raridon

Christian BarmoreLDE→ Gabe Jacas

AwayPackers2 next man up · 4 questionable · 4 changes