Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 7 · Sun, Oct 25 · Bank of America StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
TB	7	26	3	7	43
CAR	0	6	0	7	13

Home · 3-5CarolinaPanthers13

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 9:18 PM ET

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers 43-13 on Sun, Oct 25 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC (Week 7, 2026 season). Records after the game: Buccaneers 3-6, Panthers 3-5. B.Mayfield (TB) led all players with +5.3 EPA on 11 dropbacks.

Who won Buccaneers vs Panthers?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers won 43-13. By quarter: TB 7-26-3-7, CAR 0-6-0-7.

Who was the best player in Buccaneers vs Panthers?

By expected points added: B.Mayfield (TB, +5.3 EPA on 11 dropbacks), B.Irving (TB, +4.7 EPA on 24 carries) and K.Pickett (CAR, +4.7 EPA on 5 dropbacks).

What was the turning point of Buccaneers vs Panthers?

The biggest swing in win probability (13 points toward the Buccaneers) came in Q2 at 11:05: (Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Buccaneers 43, Panthers 13: Week 7 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-25-tb-at-car (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 7 issue →

Week 7EarnedGame file →

Buccaneers53% success · +0.15 EPA/play

4313

Panthers41% success · −0.17 EPA/play

TB 99% deserveddeserved 1% CAR

Buccaneers earned it: the snaps said Buccaneers by 13.3, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginTB by 13.3

Real marginTB by 30

Luck pts TB+4.8

Luck pts CAR−4.7

The swingQ1 12:00 · TB · +12 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 15-T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (29-A.Evans).

Flags that moved this game

1Unsportsmanlike ConductCAR → helped TB · Wk 7 Q2 9:09 · 10-R.Fitzgerald extra point is Blocked (23-T.Smith), Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEFENSIVE TWO-POINT ATTEMPT.…+8.0 WP
2Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped TB · Wk 7 Q1 3:20 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.Hurst (29-A.Evans). PENALTY on CAR-29-A.Evans, Defensive Pass…+5.6 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1TB · 4th & 5Todd Bowles chose Punt at midfield, Wk 7 Q1 0:59, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.33 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA126 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 10 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewCarl Cheffers10 accepted flags in this game · 13.3 a game this season (one of the quietest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: CAR by 3 · Snaps: TB by 13.3Buccaneers covered; the snaps agree

43@13

Week 7

If the Panthers had recovered that fumble

Panthers after the play12%what really happened

Q2 7:33 7-B.Irving left tackle to CAR 37 for 6 yards (24-W.Lee; 55-D.Lloyd). FUMBLES (24-W.Lee), recovered by TB-80-D.Sills at CAR 37. 80-D.Sills ran ob at CAR 37 for no gain.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CAR ▲TB ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+13%Q2 11:05 · for TB(Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.
+10%Q1 0:59 · for TBR.Dixon punts 36 yards to CAR 14, Center-E.Deckers. D.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by TB-K.Kieft at CAR 18.
+9%Q2 9:09 · for CARDarren Waller 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)
+8%Q2 9:09 · for TBR.Fitzgerald kicks 69 yards from CAR 20 to TB 11. K.Gainwell to TB 41 for 30 yards (N.Hampton).
+7%Q1 12:00 · for TB(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass deep right to T.Johnson pushed ob at CAR 26 for 19 yards (A.Evans).

Every drive, on the field

CAR attacks →← TB attacks

Q1 15:00TD14p · 70y · 7:38
Q1 7:22PUNT6p · 19y · 2:37
Q1 4:45PUNT5p · 32y · 3:58
Q1 0:47FG5p · 14y · 1:35
Q2 14:12FUM5p · 1y · 3:07
Q2 11:05TD5p · 72y · 1:56
Q2 9:09TD8p · 59y · 5:16
Q2 3:53INT3p · 12y · 1:23
Q2 2:30TD8p · 32y · 2:26
Q2 0:04HALF0p · 0y · 0:04
Q3 15:00PUNT4p · -8y · 2:03
Q3 12:57PUNT3p · 2y · 2:24
Q3 10:33INT5p · 11y · 1:34
Q3 8:59FG4p · 6y · 2:29
Q3 6:30DOWNS14p · 64y · 4:40
Q3 1:50TD9p · 94y · 6:29
Q4 10:21TD8p · 71y · 4:53
Q4 5:28DOWNS4p · 7y · 2:25
Q4 3:03DOWNS4p · 4y · 1:46
Q4 1:17END2p · -3y · 1:17

Buccaneers9 drives6scoring drives (4 TD)67%drives ending in pointsOWN 45avg starting field position1three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Panthers9 drives3scoring drives (3 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 31avg starting field position0three-and-outs5turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
7:22TouchdownB.Irving up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.7–0
Q2
14:12Field goalC.McLaughlin 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.10–0
Q2
11:05Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young sacked at CAR 31 for -9 yards (A.Muhammad). FUMBLES (A.Muhammad) [A.Muhammad], RECOVERED by TB-C.Kancey at CAR 32. C.Kancey for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.17–0
Q2
9:09TouchdownDarren Waller 50 Yd pass from Bryce Young (Ryan Fitzgerald PAT blocked)17–6
Q2
9:09Defensive 2pt ConversionZyon McCollum Defensive PAT Conversion19–6
Q2
3:53TouchdownJ.Skule reported in as eligible. B.Irving left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.26–6
Q2
0:04Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Mayfield pass short right to T.Johnson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.33–6
Q3
6:30Field goalC.McLaughlin 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.36–6
Q4
10:21TouchdownS.Tucker left guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.McLaughlin extra point is GOOD, Center-E.Deckers, Holder-R.Dixon.43–6
Q4
5:28TouchdownA.Tyus right end for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.PENALTY on TB-E.Simmons, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced between downs.43–13

Team stats

TBvsCAR

322Total yards266

64Passing yards178

258Rushing yards88

5.4Yards per play4.9

21First downs15

7-12 · 58%Third down6-11 · 55%

0-1Fourth down0-2

3-4Red zone TDs1-2

7/11Comp / att17/31

5.3Yards per carry4.9

0Turnovers4

0Sacks allowed5 (−32 yds)

6 for 35Penalties4 for 56

35:57Possession24:03

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.212-0.268

Dropback EPA+0.481-0.409

Rush EPA+0.149+0.067

Success rate53%41%

Explosive plays84

Plays5854

Who moved the needle

B.MayfieldDropbacks: 11+5.3

B.IrvingCarries: 24+4.7

K.PickettDropbacks: 5+4.7

K.GainwellCarries: 14+3.5

C.HubbardCarries: 7+2.2

T.McMillanTargets: 6+1.6

Cost their side the most

B.YoungDropbacks: 33-20.2

J.CokerTargets: 4-5.0

J.MetchieTargets: 4-3.8

Box score

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Baker MayfieldQB	7/11	64	5.8	1	0	0-0	68.0	109.7

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bucky IrvingRB	24	106	4.4	2	15
Kenny GainwellRB	14	88	6.3	0	29
Sean TuckerRB	7	52	7.4	1	46
Tez JohnsonWR	1	14	14.0	0	14
Baker MayfieldQB	1	1	1.0	0	1
Jalon DanielsQB	2	-3	-1.5	0	-1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tez JohnsonWR	2	2	33	16.5	1	19
Chris Godwin Jr.WR	4	5	27	6.8	0	9
Bucky IrvingRB	1	2	4	4.0	0	4
Cade OttonTE	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Ted Hurst IIIWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Josiah TrotterLB	10	3	0	0	1	0
Tykee SmithS	7	1	0	0	1	0
Alex AnzaloneLB	6	4	0	0	0	0
Keionte ScottCB	6	2	0	0	1	0
David WalkerLB	5	5	0	1	0	0
Ifeatu MelifonwuS	5	2	0	0	0	0
Yaya DiabyLB	3	3	3	3	0	3
Elijah RobertsDE	3	1	0	0	0	0
Jacob ParrishCB	2	2	0	0	2	0
Zyon McCollumCB	2	1	0	0	1	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Chase McLaughlinPK	2/2	100.0	44	5/5	11

Carolina Panthers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bryce YoungQB	14/27	163	6.0	1	2	5-32	7.9	51.9
Kenny PickettQB	3/4	47	11.8	0	0	0-0	56.9	113.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chuba HubbardRB	7	33	4.7	0	8
Anthony Tyus IIIRB	3	23	7.7	1	12
Kenny PickettQB	1	15	15.0	0	15
Bryce YoungQB	1	9	9.0	0	9
Trevor EtienneRB	6	8	1.3	0	5

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Darren WallerTE	1	2	50	50.0	1	50
Tetairoa McMillanWR	4	6	40	10.0	0	12
Mitchell EvansTE	2	2	39	19.5	0	32
Chuba HubbardRB	4	5	27	6.8	0	9
John Metchie IIIWR	2	4	20	10.0	0	16
Trevor EtienneRB	2	2	17	8.5	0	9
Jalen CokerWR	1	4	9	9.0	0	9
Tommy TrembleTE	1	2	8	8.0	0	8
David MooreWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0
Brycen TremayneWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Bobby OkerekeLB	10	7	1	1	0
Nick ScottS	7	4	0	0	0
Aaron HallDT	6	1	0	0	0
Derrick BrownDT	5	3	0	1	0
Nick HamptonLB	5	3	0	0	0
Will Lee IIICB	5	1	0	0	0
Devin LloydLB	4	0	0	0	1
Trevis GipsonLB	3	2	1	0	0
Tre'von MoehrigS	3	2	0	0	0
Lathan RansomS	3	2	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ryan FitzgeraldPK	0/0	0.0	0	1/2	1

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 6 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Panthers defense against big plays vs Buccaneers big-play offense
The Panthers' defense against big plays ranks 4th in explosive-play rate (7.0% allowed, 328 plays faced) and faces a Buccaneers big-play offense ranked 23rd (8.0%, 374 plays).
23rdTB offense19 spots apart4thCAR defense
2Panthers pass defense vs Buccaneers dropback offense
The Panthers' pass defense ranks 15th in EPA per dropback (+0.01 allowed, 217 dropbacks faced) and faces a Buccaneers dropback offense ranked 31st (-0.18, 241 dropbacks).
31stTB offense16 spots apart15thCAR defense
3Buccaneers third-down defense vs Panthers third-down offense
The Buccaneers' third-down defense ranks 7th in third-down conversion rate (33.8% allowed, 77 third downs faced) and faces a Panthers third-down offense ranked 20th (38.8%, 67 third downs).
20thCAR offense13 spots apart7thTB defense

When the Buccaneers have the ballEdge CAR · +16 ranks

TB dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCAR pass defense

31st-0.18241 dropbacks

CAR +16

+0.01 allowed217 dropbacks faced15th

TB run gameEPA per rushCAR run defense

11th-0.04133 rushes

TB +12

-0.05 allowed111 rushes faced23rd

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Panthers have the ballEdge TB · +8 ranks

CAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackTB pass defense

6th+0.20220 dropbacks

-0.05 allowed231 dropbacks faced6th

CAR run gameEPA per rushTB run defense

14th-0.05118 rushes

TB +8

-0.16 allowed120 rushes faced6th

Third downEdge TB · +13 ranks

TB third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCAR third-down defense

21st37.9%87 third downs

42.0% allowed69 third downs faced18th

CAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateTB third-down defense

20th38.8%67 third downs

TB +13

33.8% allowed77 third downs faced7th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge TB · +8 ranks

TB red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCAR red-zone defense

22nd50%18 trips

TB +8

77% allowed13 trips faced30th

CAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateTB red-zone defense

7th70%20 trips

53% allowed17 trips faced12th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge CAR · +19 ranks

TB big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCAR defense against big plays

23rd8.0%374 plays

CAR +19

7.0% allowed328 plays faced4th

CAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateTB defense against big plays

8th10.7%338 plays

7.4% allowed351 plays faced7th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge CAR · +8 ranks

TB pass protectionsack rateCAR pass rush

29th9.1% sacked241 dropbacks

CAR +8

5.1% of dropbacks217 dropbacks faced21st

CAR pass protectionsack rateTB pass rush

15th5.5% sacked220 dropbacks

CAR +8

4.8% of dropbacks231 dropbacks faced23rd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge CAR · +13 ranks

TB ball securityturnovers per gameCAR takeaway defense

26th1.8 giveaways a game6 games

CAR +13

1.2 takeaways a game5 games13th

CAR ball securityturnovers per gameTB takeaway defense

4th0.6 giveaways a game5 games

CAR +10

1.2 takeaways a game6 games14th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: TB 6 games, 374 offensive and 351 defensive plays · CAR 5 games, 338 offensive and 328 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Emeka EgbukaWR→ Tez Johnson

Luke GoedekeRT→ Benjamin Chukwuma

Benjamin MorrisonRCB→ Keionte Scott

Antoine Winfield Jr.FS→ Ifeatu Melifonwu

Jaelan PhillipsSLB→ Trevis Gipson

Malcolm DeWalt IVLCB→ Akayleb Evans

Chau Smith-WadeNB→ Zakee Wheatley

AwayBuccaneers1 next man up · 1 questionable · 4 changes