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The Verdict2026 · AFC North · through Week 9

Browns logoCleveland BrownsThe Verdict

Browns are 5-4; the play says 4.2 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 5-2 in one-score games. On fourth down, Todd Monken kicked away 5 of 8 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 6th of 32+0.85-4 real · 4.2 deserved · 3.5 Pythagorean
Luck points · 30th of 32−10.6fumble bounces −11.4 · opponents' kicks +0.8
Chicken Index · 9th of 3263%Todd Monken · 4.2 expected points lost on 50 graded calls
Flags net · 27th of 32−40.4 WP82 flags for 563 yards against · 55 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play; 1 were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Browns logoBrowns33% success · −0.11 EPA/play
2223
Saints logoSaints44% success · −0.07 EPA/play

Saints earned it: the snaps said Saints by 3.0, a deserved win probability of 71%.

Deserved marginNO by 3.0
Real marginNO by 1
Luck pts CLE−0.4
Luck pts NO+0.4

The swingOT 1:00 · CLE · −47 pts of win probability. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-S.Sanders pass to 12-D.Boston is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. Penalty on CLE-71-T.Howard, Offensive Holding, declined.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Browns logoBrowns43% success · −0.22 EPA/play
627
Steelers logoSteelers47% success · +0.02 EPA/play

Steelers earned it: the snaps said Steelers by 12.1, a deserved win probability of 99%.

Deserved marginPIT by 12.1
Real marginPIT by 21
Luck pts CLE−6.5
Luck pts PIT+7.1

The swingQ1 10:41 · CLE · −12 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at CLE 45 for -5 yards (sack split by 6-P.Queen and 97-C.Heyward). FUMBLES (6-P.Queen) [6-P.Queen], touched at CLE 45, RECOVERED by PIT-95-K.Benton at CLE 45. The fumble was assisted by…

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games5-2Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−11.4 ptsKept 5 of 12 own fumbles; won 5 of 14 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+0.8 ptsOpponents made 19 of 23 field goals against an expected 19.6, and 17 of 17 extra points.
Own kicking+2.2 ptsMade 19 of 21 field goals against 18.3 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play−0.03422nd of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-3Our pregame model in Browns games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Todd Monken · 50 graded fourth downs · went for it 13×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 3.4 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1CLE · 4th & 1Todd Monken chose Punt at own 25, Wk 4 Q1 12:59, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.18 EP
  2. 2CLE · 4th & 2Todd Monken chose Punt at own 15, Wk 5 Q3 3:49, down 1. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.55 EP
  3. 3CLE · 4th & 3Todd Monken chose Punt at own 42, Wk 3 Q1 8:41, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.52 EP
  4. 4CLE · 4th & 5Todd Monken chose Punt at opp 48, Wk 7 Q3 11:24, up 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.41 EP
  5. 5CLE · 4th & 14Todd Monken chose Punt at opp 43, Wk 3 Q2 12:03, tied. Model: Field goal (lean). Result: punted.−0.39 EP
  6. 6CLE · 4th & 4Todd Monken chose Punt at own 45, Wk 6 Q4 12:51, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.35 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1CLE · 4th & 1Todd Monken chose Go for it at own 37, Wk 6 Q3 12:41, down 10. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2CLE · 4th & 1Todd Monken chose Go for it at own 34, Wk 2 Q2 2:50, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  3. 3CLE · 4th & 2Todd Monken chose Go for it at opp 42, Wk 9 Q4 10:39, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 14 · own 26 · Q1 12:399PuntPunt-2.33-1.27–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 40 · Q1 4:149PuntPunt-0.90-0.63–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 23 · Q2 10:349Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.58–2.52−0.07good
4th & 5 · own 20 · Q2 4:129PuntPunt-1.90-1.61–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 1:429Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95stopped
4th & 12 · opp 12 · Q3 9:049Field goalField goal1.06–2.86✓good
4th & 17 · own 24 · Q3 1:209PuntPunt-2.59-1.38–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 42 · Q4 10:399Go for itGo for it1.32-0.170.38✓stopped
4th & 22 · own 16 · Q4 2:009Puntnot graded-3.31-1.87–punted
4th & 3 · opp 33 · Q4 0:129Field goalnot graded1.54-0.111.70good
4th & 14 · own 33 · Q1 6:248PuntPunt-1.87-0.92–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 14 · Q2 8:468Field goalField goal2.38–2.82✓good
4th & 9 · opp 31 · Q2 0:498Field goalnot graded0.73-0.111.92good
4th & 2 · own 13 · Q3 10:338Puntnot graded-1.52-2.07–punted
4th & 2 · own 28 · Q3 8:088Puntnot graded-0.54-1.16–punted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q4 12:578Go for itnot graded2.17–2.93stopped
4th & 22 · own 46 · Q4 10:008Puntnot graded-1.30-0.43–punted
4th & 17 · opp 30 · Q4 3:298Go for itnot graded0.37-0.112.02stopped
4th & 5 · own 11 · Q1 2:427PuntPunt-2.52-2.21–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 48 · Q3 11:247PuntGo for it0.13-0.28–−0.41punted
4th & 17 · opp 48 · Q3 6:357PuntPunt-0.78-0.28–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 25 · Q4 14:097Field goalField goal1.81–2.40✓missed
4th & 13 · own 21 · Q1 6:436PuntPunt-2.62-1.55–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 45 · Q1 1:526PuntPunt-0.87-0.46–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 21 · Q2 11:066PuntPunt-1.84-1.55–✓punted
4th & 8 · opp 45 · Q2 6:076PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.07-0.22-0.16−0.15punted
4th & 15 · own 24 · Q2 1:196Puntnot graded-2.51-1.38–punted
4th & 1 · own 37 · Q3 12:416Go for itGo for it0.60-0.75–✓converted
4th & 6 · opp 30 · Q3 7:536Field goalField goal1.12-0.112.02✓good
4th & 6 · own 14 · Q3 2:426PuntPunt-2.48-2.00–✓punted
4th & 4 · own 45 · Q4 12:516PuntGo for it-0.11-0.46–−0.35punted
4th & 8 · opp 29 · Q4 3:446Field goalnot graded0.95–2.11missed
4th & 11 · own 33 · Q1 12:585PuntPunt-1.70-0.92–✓punted
4th & 5 · opp 7 · Q1 3:305Field goalGo for it (toss-up)3.08–2.92−0.17good
4th & 7 · own 38 · Q1 1:025PuntPunt-1.03-0.71–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 23 · Q2 10:195Field goalField goal1.18–2.52✓good
4th & 14 · own 33 · Q2 6:245PuntPunt-1.87-0.92–✓punted
4th & 8 · own 37 · Q2 0:105Puntnot graded-1.20-0.75–punted
4th & 8 · own 11 · Q3 10:225PuntPunt-2.94-2.21–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 15 · Q3 3:495PuntGo for it-1.38-1.93–−0.55punted
4th & 38 · own 27 · Q4 12:185PuntPunt-2.78-1.21–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 43 · Q4 4:015Go for itnot graded-0.12-0.190.20stopped
4th & 19 · own 37 · Q4 2:135Puntnot graded-1.80-0.75–punted
4th & 11 · own 19 · Q4 0:575Go for itnot graded-2.63-1.67–stopped
4th & 1 · own 25 · Q1 12:594PuntGo for it-0.14-1.32–−1.18punted
4th & 9 · opp 43 · Q1 1:294PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.04-0.190.20−0.39punted
4th & 13 · own 12 · Q3 10:214PuntPunt-3.26-2.14–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 26 · Q4 6:424Field goalGo for it (toss-up)2.38–2.34−0.04good
4th & 8 · own 19 · Q4 3:414Puntnot graded-2.38-1.67–punted
4th & 8 · opp 38 · Q4 0:154Field goalnot graded0.37-0.131.03good
4th & 3 · own 42 · Q1 8:413PuntGo for it-0.04-0.56–−0.52punted
4th & 3 · opp 38 · Q2 15:003Go for itGo for it (toss-up)1.21-0.131.03✓converted
4th & 14 · opp 43 · Q2 12:033PuntField goal-0.35-0.190.20−0.39punted
4th & 4 · opp 29 · Q2 5:483Field goalField goal1.54–2.11✓good
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 1:433Go for itnot graded3.29–2.95touchdown
4th & 13 · own 26 · Q3 11:093PuntPunt-2.28-1.27–✓punted
4th & 5 · own 10 · Q3 6:123PuntPunt-2.59-2.29–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 34 · Q3 2:183PuntPunt-1.48-0.87–✓punted
4th & 9 · opp 27 · Q4 7:343Field goalField goal0.99–2.27✓good
4th & 1 · opp 15 · Q4 1:053Go for itnot graded3.77–2.80stopped
4th & 5 · own 38 · Q1 13:282PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.74-0.71–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 32 · Q1 7:172Field goalField goal0.99-0.111.82✓good
4th & 12 · own 31 · Q1 2:342PuntPunt-1.89-1.01–✓punted
4th & 14 · opp 16 · Q2 14:022Field goalField goal1.54–2.78✓good
4th & 22 · own 8 · Q2 7:192PuntPunt-3.90-2.44–✓punted
4th & 1 · own 34 · Q2 2:502Go for itGo for it0.41-0.87–✓stopped
4th & 6 · opp 16 · Q3 3:482Field goalField goal2.08–2.78✓good
4th & 8 · own 41 · Q4 12:572PuntPunt-0.95-0.59–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 21 · Q1 6:401PuntPunt-2.00-1.55–✓punted
4th & 18 · own 27 · Q2 15:001Puntnot graded-2.42-1.21–punted
4th & 6 · 50 · Q2 4:021Puntnot graded-0.15-0.32–punted
4th & 7 · opp 8 · Q3 8:341Field goalnot graded2.65–2.91good
4th & 6 · opp 29 · Q4 10:501Go for itnot graded1.18–2.11converted
4th & 4 · opp 16 · Q4 8:221Go for itnot graded2.44–2.78stopped

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Roughing the Passer on CLE in Week 4, worth +12 points of win probability to PIT.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Roughing the PasserCLE → helped PIT · Wk 4 Q1 5:49 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 11-M.Pittman to CLE 35 for 9 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-96-M.Collins, Roughing…+12.3 WP
  2. 2Illegal ShiftCLE → helped CAR · Wk 3 Q4 2:41 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 1-K.Concepcion to CAR 19 for 5 yards (22-L.Ransom). PENALTY on CLE-11-M.Corley, Illegal…+10.7 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceCLE → helped PIT · Wk 4 Q4 1:51 · (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 80-D.Washington (28-E.McNeil-Warren). PENALTY on CLE-28-E.McNeil-Warren,…+10.7 WP
  4. 4Illegal ContactCLE → helped NO · Wk 9 Q4 7:57 · (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough sacked at CLE 37 for 0 yards (51-M.Hall). PENALTY on CLE-7-T.Campbell, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced…+8.7 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserCLE → helped CAR · Wk 3 Q2 1:04 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 30-C.Hubbard to CLE 16 for 30 yards (21-D.Ward). PENALTY on CLE-54-S.Williams, Roughing…+7.5 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
False Start178536.7
Offensive Holding1816932.7
Roughing the Passer45327.4
Defensive Pass Interference21611.7
Neutral Zone Infraction94511.0
Delay of Game52510.8
Illegal Shift1510.7
Illegal Formation5249.8

Flags drawn

  1. 1Roughing the PasserCAR → helped CLE · Wk 3 Q4 2:36 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right intended for 1-K.Concepcion INTERCEPTED by 29-A.Evans (24-W.Lee) at CAR -3. Touchback.…+16.9 WP
  2. 2Offensive HoldingTB → helped CLE · Wk 2 Q4 0:45 · (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Hurst. PENALTY on TB-62-G.Barton, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+10.7 WP
  3. 3Defensive OffsideBAL → helped CLE · Wk 6 Q4 0:02 · 25-A.Szmyt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (38-K.Martin), Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez, RECOVERED by BAL-98-T.Jones…+8.0 WP
  4. 4Defensive OffsideTEN → helped CLE · Wk 7 Q2 2:27 · 4-D.Watson up the middle to TEN 9 for 2 yards (50-C.Barton). PENALTY on TEN-98-J.Simmons, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced…+7.1 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserPIT → helped CLE · Wk 8 Q1 13:37 · (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass incomplete short right to 1-K.Concepcion. CLE-4-D.Watson was injured during the play. PENALTY on…+7.0 WP

Garbage Time Tax

18.6% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 20th most of 32

Bottom lineHarold Fannin Jr.: 110 of 453 yards (24%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Deshaun WatsonCLE · passing · 1,806 yds23%
Denzel BostonCLE · receiving · 507 yds22%
Harold Fannin Jr.CLE · receiving · 453 yds24%
KC ConcepcionCLE · receiving · 437 yds11%
Quinshon JudkinsCLE · rushing · 385 yds14%

Our picks on the Browns

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Browns 49% at saints. 22-23 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Browns 41% at steelers. 6-27 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Browns 58% at titans. 27-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Browns 34% at home against ravens. 10-13 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Browns 42% at jets. 12-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Browns 56% at home against steelers. 24-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Browns 34% at home against panthers. 18-21 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Browns 33% at buccaneers. 23-19 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Cleveland Browns verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/browns/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.