Texans 17, Colts 19: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 3 · Sun, Sep 27 · Lucas Oil StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
HOU	0	7	0	10	17
IND	3	10	0	6	19

Home · 2-7IndianapolisColts19

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:31 PM ET

The Indianapolis Colts beat the Houston Texans 19-17 on Sun, Sep 27 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN (Week 3, 2026 season). Records after the game: Texans 3-5, Colts 2-7. K.Allen (IND) led all players with +5.3 EPA on 9 targets.

Who won Texans vs Colts?

The Indianapolis Colts won 19-17. By quarter: HOU 0-7-0-10, IND 3-10-0-6.

Who was the best player in Texans vs Colts?

By expected points added: K.Allen (IND, +5.3 EPA on 9 targets), T.Warren (IND, +1.9 EPA on 10 targets) and J.Downs (IND, +1.5 EPA on 11 targets).

What was the turning point of Texans vs Colts?

The biggest swing in win probability (49 points toward the Colts) came in Q4 at 0:16: S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Texans 17, Colts 19: Week 3 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-09-27-hou-at-ind (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 3 issue →

Week 3EarnedGame file →

Texans41% success · −0.09 EPA/play

1719

Colts41% success · −0.05 EPA/play

HOU 39% deserveddeserved 61% IND

Colts earned it: the snaps said Colts by 1.5, a deserved win probability of 61%.

Deserved marginIND by 1.5

Real marginIND by 2

Luck pts HOU−0.4

Luck pts IND−2.4

The swingQ4 0:21 · IND · +36 pts of win probability. 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive HoldingHOU → helped IND · Wk 3 Q1 3:02 · (Shotgun) 4-W.Marks right tackle to HOU 49 for 12 yards (0-C.Bynum). PENALTY on HOU-63-E.Brown, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+4.4 WP
2Face MaskIND → helped HOU · Wk 3 Q2 5:07 · (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 32-D.Montgomery to IND 17 for 10 yards (7-C.Ward). PENALTY on IND-7-C.Ward, Face Mask,…+3.5 WP

Fourth downs our model disagreed with

1HOU · 4th & 4DeMeco Ryans chose Field goal at opp 6, Wk 3 Q4 7:36, down 9. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.46 EP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA139 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 6 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewRonald Torbert8 accepted flags in this game · 14 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: HOU by 1.5 · Snaps: IND by 1.5Colts covered; the snaps agree

17@19

Week 3Changes the winner

If the 53-yard kick had missed

Texans after the play18%what really happened

Q4 0:21 3-S.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

IND ▲HOU ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+49%Q4 0:16 · for INDS.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.
+19%Q4 1:43 · for IND(Shotgun) D.Jones pass deep middle to L.Treadwell to HST 45 for 20 yards (C.Bullock).
+14%Q4 4:45 · for HOU(Shotgun) D.Jones sacked at HST 45 for -6 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HST-T.Togiai at HST 46. Fumble Forced by 55-D.Hunter.
+11%Q1 11:28 · for HOUD.Jones sacked at IND 39 for -8 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson), touched at IND 44, RECOVERED by HST-W.Anderson at IND 42. W.Anderson to IND 40 for 2 yards (M.Alie-Cox). FUMBLES (M.Alie-Cox), recovered by HST-K.Lassiter at IND 40.
+10%Q4 0:29 · for HOU(Shotgun) J.Taylor left end to HST 41 for -1 yards (W.Anderson).

Every drive, on the field

IND attacks →← HOU attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · -1y · 1:40
Q1 13:20FUM4p · 8y · 2:03
Q1 11:17DOWNS4p · 9y · 1:35
Q1 9:42FG13p · 48y · 5:14
Q1 4:28PUNT4p · -1y · 2:49
Q1 1:39TD12p · 69y · 5:31
Q2 11:08TD12p · 68y · 6:38
Q2 4:30FG9p · 25y · 3:27
Q2 1:03PUNT3p · 8y · 0:33
Q2 0:30HALF1p · 4y · 0:30
Q3 15:00INT7p · 35y · 3:27
Q3 11:33PUNT3p · 4y · 1:42
Q3 9:51PUNT3p · -3y · 2:03
Q3 7:48PUNT3p · 6y · 1:32
Q3 6:16FG15p · 51y · 8:33
Q4 12:43FG10p · 71y · 5:10
Q4 7:33FUM5p · 19y · 2:53
Q4 4:40TD7p · 54y · 2:52
Q4 1:48FG6p · 29y · 1:32
Q4 0:16END3p · 17y · 0:16

Texans9 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position4three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Colts9 drives5scoring drives (1 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 33avg starting field position1three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
4:28Field goalS.Shrader 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez. ** Injury Update: IND-S.Shrader has returned to the game.0–3
Q2
11:08Touchdown(Shotgun) D.Jones pass short right to K.Allen for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Shrader extra point is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.0–10
Q2
4:30TouchdownB.Fisher reported in as eligible. C.Stroud pass short left to F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.7–10
Q2
1:03Field goalS.Shrader 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.7–13
Q4
12:43Field goalS.Shrader 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.7–16
Q4
7:33Field goal K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.10–16
Q4
1:48TouchdownB.Fisher reported in as eligible. W.Marks right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. K.Fairbairn extra point is GOOD, Center-A.Brinkman, Holder-K.Kroeger.17–16
Q4
0:16Field goalS.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-L.Rhodes, Holder-R.Sanchez.17–19

Team stats

HOUvsIND

223Total yards300

153Passing yards211

70Rushing yards89

4.4Yards per play4.2

17First downs19

4-11 · 36%Third down7-15 · 47%

0-1Fourth down2-2

2-3Red zone TDs1-3

16/27Comp / att24/36

3.3Yards per carry2.9

0Turnovers3

3 (−14 yds)Sacks allowed4 (−24 yds)

2 for 14Penalties6 for 41

24:47Possession35:13

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play-0.092-0.114

Dropback EPA-0.042-0.130

Rush EPA-0.170-0.092

Success rate41%41%

Explosive plays25

Plays5171

Who moved the needle

K.AllenTargets: 9+5.3

T.WarrenTargets: 10+1.9

J.DownsTargets: 11+1.5

W.MarksCarries: 5+1.4

D.JonesCarries: 3+0.9

X.HutchinsonTargets: 6+0.4

Cost their side the most

D.MontgomeryCarries: 11-5.8

D.JonesDropbacks: 41-5.3

J.TaylorCarries: 22-3.9

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
C.J. StroudQB	16/27	167	6.2	1	0	3-14	53.8	89.6

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
David MontgomeryRB	11	33	3.0	0	9
Woody MarksRB	5	15	3.0	1	9
C.J. StroudQB	2	10	5.0	0	8
Jaylin NoelWR	1	8	8.0	0	8
Xavier HutchinsonWR	2	4	2.0	0	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Xavier HutchinsonWR	3	6	51	17.0	0	28
Dalton SchultzTE	3	3	30	10.0	0	17
Kayshon BoutteWR	2	2	21	10.5	0	15
Jared WayneWR	1	4	20	20.0	0	20
Jaylin NoelWR	2	2	17	8.5	0	12
David MontgomeryRB	2	2	15	7.5	0	10
Foster MoreauTE	2	4	7	3.5	1	6
Woody MarksRB	1	1	6	6.0	0	6
Lewis BondWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Azeez Al-ShaairLB	11	2	0	0	0	0
Kamari LassiterCB	9	6	0	1	0	0
Reed BlankenshipS	9	5	0	0	2	0
Will Anderson Jr.DE	7	5	2.5	3	0	3
Calen BullockS	7	5	0	1	0	0
Jake HansenLB	7	3	0	0	0	0
Danielle HunterDE	6	2	0.5	0	1	2
Tommy TogiaiDT	6	2	0	0	0	0
Sheldon RankinsDT	3	3	1	1	0	2
Sabastian HarshDE	3	2	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ka'imi FairbairnPK	1/1	100.0	24	2/2	5

Indianapolis Colts

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Daniel JonesQB	24/36	235	6.5	1	1	4-24	31.6	82.5

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Jonathan TaylorRB	23	68	3.0	11
Seth McGowanRB	4	14	3.5	7
Daniel JonesQB	3	5	1.7	2
Tyler WarrenTE	1	2	2.0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Josh DownsWR	5	11	77	15.4	0	24
Keenan AllenWR	6	9	63	10.5	1	26
Tyler WarrenTE	9	10	55	6.1	0	15
Laquon TreadwellWR	1	1	20	20.0	0	20
Mo Alie-CoxTE	1	1	16	16.0	0	16
Jonathan TaylorRB	2	3	4	2.0	0	3

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Charvarius WardCB	8	6	0	0	1	0
Akeem Davis-GaitherLB	7	3	0	0	1	0
DeForest BucknerDT	7	2	1.5	1	0	2
Sauce GardnerCB	5	4	0	0	2	0
Hunter WohlerS	4	1	0	0	0	0
Austin AjiakeLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Justin WalleyCB	3	2	0	0	2	0
Adetomiwa AdebaworeDT	3	1	1.5	1	0	3
Jaylon CarliesLB	3	1	0	0	0	0
A.J. HaulcyS	3	1	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Spencer ShraderPK	4/4	100.0	58	1/1	13

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 2 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Texans big-play offense vs Colts defense against big plays
The Texans' big-play offense ranks 12th in explosive-play rate (10.7%, 149 plays) against a Colts defense against big plays ranked 30th (13.0% allowed, 138 plays faced).
12thHOU offense18 spots apart30thIND defense

When the Texans have the ballNo big edge

HOU dropback offenseEPA per dropbackIND pass defense

23rd-0.03103 dropbacks

+0.34 allowed80 dropbacks faced29th

HOU run gameEPA per rushIND run defense

28th-0.2446 rushes

+0.17 allowed58 rushes faced31st

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Colts have the ballNo big edge

IND dropback offenseEPA per dropbackHOU pass defense

29th-0.1667 dropbacks

+0.24 allowed69 dropbacks faced24th

IND run gameEPA per rushHOU run defense

3rd+0.1649 rushes

-0.24 allowed41 rushes faced7th

Third downEdge HOU · +13 ranks

HOU third-down offensethird-down conversion rateIND third-down defense

23rd36.4%33 third downs

IND +9

38.1% allowed21 third downs faced14th

IND third-down offensethird-down conversion rateHOU third-down defense

23rd36.4%22 third downs

HOU +13

33.3% allowed24 third downs faced10th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneNo big edge

HOU red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateIND red-zone defense

24th44%9 trips

67% allowed9 trips faced17th

IND red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateHOU red-zone defense

4th83%6 trips

40% allowed5 trips faced8th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge IND · +19 ranks

HOU big-play offenseexplosive-play rateIND defense against big plays

12th10.7%149 plays

HOU +18

13.0% allowed138 plays faced30th

IND big-play offenseexplosive-play rateHOU defense against big plays

9th11.2%116 plays

IND +19

12.7% allowed110 plays faced28th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksNo big edge

HOU pass protectionsack rateIND pass rush

18th6.8% sacked103 dropbacks

5.0% of dropbacks80 dropbacks faced23rd

IND pass protectionsack rateHOU pass rush

5th3.0% sacked67 dropbacks

10.1% of dropbacks69 dropbacks faced3rd

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge HOU · +9 ranks

HOU ball securityturnovers per gameIND takeaway defense

14th1.0 giveaways a game2 games

HOU +9

0.5 takeaways a game2 games23rd

IND ball securityturnovers per gameHOU takeaway defense

21st1.5 giveaways a game2 games

IND +9

0.0 takeaways a game2 games30th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: HOU 2 games, 149 offensive and 110 defensive plays · IND 2 games, 116 offensive and 138 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Woody MarksRB→ David Montgomery

Nico CollinsWR→ Kayshon Boutte

Marvin Harrison Jr.WR→ Jared Wayne

Ed IngramRG→ Wyatt Teller

Henry To'oTo'oWLB→ Logan Hall

Deion BurksWR→ Keenan Allen

Ashton DulinWR→ Josh Downs

Jalen FarmerLG→ Quenton Nelson

Luke TenutaRT→ Jalen Travis

Adetomiwa AdebaworeRDT→ DeForest Buckner

CJ AllenMLB→ Jaylon Carlies