Jaguars 22, Bengals 17: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 4 · Sun, Oct 4 · Paycor StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
JAX	3	10	3	6	22
CIN	0	3	7	7	17

Home · 6-2CincinnatiBengals17

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 5:30 PM ET

The Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Cincinnati Bengals 22-17 on Sun, Oct 4 at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH (Week 4, 2026 season). Records after the game: Jaguars 6-2, Bengals 6-2. T.Lawrence (JAX) led all players with +9.3 EPA on 28 dropbacks.

Who won Jaguars vs Bengals?

The Jacksonville Jaguars won 22-17. By quarter: JAX 3-10-3-6, CIN 0-3-7-7.

Who was the best player in Jaguars vs Bengals?

By expected points added: T.Lawrence (JAX, +9.3 EPA on 28 dropbacks), J.Burrow (CIN, +7.3 EPA on 58 dropbacks) and T.Higgins (CIN, +7.0 EPA on 16 targets).

What was the turning point of Jaguars vs Bengals?

The biggest swing in win probability (19 points toward the Jaguars) came in Q4 at 14:16: (Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right intended for M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun at JAX 10. F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (M.Tinsley).

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Jaguars 22, Bengals 17: Week 4 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-10-04-jax-at-cin (updated 2026-11-10).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 4 issue →

Week 4EarnedGame file →

Jaguars43% success · +0.13 EPA/play

2217

Bengals47% success · −0.00 EPA/play

JAX 79% deserveddeserved 21% CIN

Jaguars earned it: the snaps said Jaguars by 4.4, a deserved win probability of 79%.

Deserved marginJAX by 4.4

Real marginJAX by 5

Luck pts JAX−0.2

Luck pts CIN−2.1

The swingQ4 0:56 · CIN · −26 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

Flags that moved this game

1Offensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped CIN · Wk 4 Q1 3:44 · (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 33-B.Tuten. PENALTY on JAX-87-N.Boerkircher, Offensive Pass Interference,…+6.7 WP
2Roughing the PasserJAX → helped CIN · Wk 4 Q1 1:24 · (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX 34. 12-T.Hunter to CIN 36 for 30…+6.7 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA148 plays, one strand0 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlex Moore24 accepted flags in this game · 16.8 a game this season (one of the busiest crews)Market vs SnapsLine: CIN by 2.5 · Snaps: JAX by 4.4Jaguars covered; the snaps agree

22@17

Week 4

If the Bengals had converted that fourth-and-10

Bengals after the play3%what really happened

Q4 0:56 9-J.Burrow pass short middle to 30-C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (25-R.Lane).

Every game's sliding door →

Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CIN ▲JAX ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+19%Q4 14:16 · for JAX(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short right intended for M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun at JAX 10. F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (M.Tinsley).
+16%Q4 0:56 · for JAX(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short middle to C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (R.Lane).
+16%Q2 2:00 · for JAX(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short middle intended for D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by J.Lewis [J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (C.Brown).
+11%Q4 2:34 · for JAX(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to B.Strange to JAX 45 for 15 yards (R.Yeast).
+11%Q4 1:44 · for CIN(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass deep right to M.Tinsley ran ob at CIN 46 for 29 yards.

Every drive, on the field

CIN attacks →← JAX attacks

Q1 15:00PUNT3p · 0y · 2:44
Q1 12:16PUNT6p · 29y · 4:33
Q1 7:43FG9p · 44y · 5:25
Q1 2:18FG14p · 67y · 7:15
Q2 10:03FG12p · 63y · 5:47
Q2 4:16INT5p · 20y · 2:27
Q2 1:49TD4p · 18y · 0:26
Q2 1:23HALF6p · 35y · 1:23
Q3 15:00TD12p · 67y · 6:16
Q3 8:44FG10p · 39y · 5:44
Q3 3:00INT8p · 64y · 3:50
Q4 14:10PUNT4p · 44y · 2:32
Q4 11:38PUNT5p · 18y · 1:09
Q4 10:29TD7p · 76y · 3:54
Q4 6:35TD9p · 71y · 3:07
Q4 3:28PUNT6p · 19y · 1:44
Q4 1:44DOWNS7p · 71y · 0:54
Q4 0:50END2p · -2y · 0:50

Jaguars8 drives5scoring drives (2 TD)63%drives ending in pointsOWN 30avg starting field position1three-and-outs0turnovers incl. downs

Bengals8 drives3scoring drives (2 TD)38%drives ending in pointsOWN 24avg starting field position0three-and-outs3turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
2:18Field goalC.Little 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.3–0
Q2
10:03Field goal E.McPherson 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.3–3
Q2
4:16Field goal C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.6–3
Q2
1:23Touchdown(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short left to Bri.Thomas for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.13–3
Q3
8:44Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Burrow pass short middle to M.Gesicki for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-E.Murray was injured during the play. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.13–10
Q3
3:00Field goalC.Little 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.16–10
Q4
6:35Touchdown(Shotgun) C.Rodriguez left guard for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. T.Lawrence pass to Bri.Thomas is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.22–10
Q4
3:28Touchdown(No Huddle) J.Burrow right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. E.McPherson extra point is GOOD, Center-W.Wagner, Holder-R.Rehkow.22–17

Team stats

JAXvsCIN

323Total yards437

212Passing yards414

111Rushing yards23

6.0Yards per play6.2

19First downs26

5-11 · 45%Third down5-12 · 42%

0-0Fourth down1-2

1-2Red zone TDs2-4

18/23Comp / att39/54

4.1Yards per carry1.5

0Turnovers2

4 (−15 yds)Sacks allowed2 (−14 yds)

13 for 125Penalties11 for 108

29:06Possession30:54

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.191+0.046

Dropback EPA+0.332+0.126

Rush EPA+0.034-0.312

Success rate43%46%

Explosive plays63

Plays5371

Who moved the needle

T.LawrenceDropbacks: 28+9.3

J.BurrowDropbacks: 58+7.3

T.HigginsTargets: 16+7.0

B.StrangeTargets: 8+6.0

J.ChaseTargets: 3+5.1

M.GesickiTargets: 5+3.3

Cost their side the most

M.TinsleyTargets: 7-3.9

C.BrownCarries: 9-2.6

S.PerineCarries: 3-2.1

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Trevor LawrenceQB	18/23	227	9.9	1	0	4-15	59.8	122.3

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Bhayshul TutenRB	17	73	4.3	0	20
Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB	6	35	5.8	1	25
Parker WashingtonWR	1	3	3.0	0	3
Trevor LawrenceQB	3	0	0.0	0	2

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Brenton StrangeTE	7	8	95	13.6	0	23
Josh CameronWR	2	2	42	21.0	0	29
Jakobi MeyersWR	3	4	33	11.0	0	22
Bhayshul TutenRB	2	2	18	9.0	0	9
Brian Thomas Jr.WR	2	2	17	8.5	1	10
Nate BoerkircherTE	1	2	15	15.0	0	15
Parker WashingtonWR	1	3	7	7.0	0	7

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Rayuan Lane IIIS	8	6	0	0	1	0
Jarrian JonesCB	7	7	0	1	3	0
Foyesade OluokunLB	7	6	0	0	1	1
Ventrell MillerLB	6	3	0	1	0	1
Jourdan LewisCB	5	3	0	0	1	0
Antonio JohnsonS	5	3	0	1	0	0
Eric MurrayS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Travis HunterWR	4	3	0	0	2	0
Branson CombsLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Arik ArmsteadDT	2	2	1	1	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Cam LittlePK	3/3	100.0	55	1/1	10

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Joe BurrowQB	39/54	428	7.9	1	2	2-14	47.9	86.0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Chase BrownRB	9	10	1.1	0	6
Samaje PerineRB	3	7	2.3	0	3
Joe BurrowQB	3	6	2.0	1	3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Tee HigginsWR	11	16	157	14.3	0	26
Dohnte MeyersWR	7	9	82	11.7	0	29
Chase BrownRB	11	11	71	6.5	0	9
Mitchell TinsleyWR	3	7	49	16.3	0	29
Mike GesickiTE	3	5	40	13.3	1	18
Ja'Marr ChaseWR	3	3	27	9.0	0	17
Tanner HudsonTE	1	1	2	2.0	0	2
Samaje PerineRB	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Barrett CarterLB	11	5	0	1	1	0
Demetrius Knight Jr.LB	6	3	0	1	0	0
Boye MafeDE	5	3	1	3	0	1
PJ JulesS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Jordan BattleS	4	3	0	0	0	0
Oren BurksLB	3	2	0	0	0	0
Russ YeastS	3	2	0	0	0	0
DJ Turner IICB	3	2	0	0	1	0
Dexter Lawrence IIDT	3	1	1	0	0	2
Jonathan AllenDT	3	1	0	0	0	2

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Evan McPhersonPK	1/1	100.0	29	2/2	5

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 3 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Bengals big-play offense vs Jaguars defense against big plays
The Bengals' big-play offense ranks 6th in explosive-play rate (10.8%, 176 plays) against a Jaguars defense against big plays ranked 24th (10.9% allowed, 165 plays faced).
6thCIN offense18 spots apart24thJAX defense
2Jaguars third-down offense vs Bengals third-down defense
The Jaguars' third-down offense ranks 4th in third-down conversion rate (54.5%, 33 third downs) against a Bengals third-down defense ranked 21st (43.6% allowed, 39 third downs faced).
4thJAX offense17 spots apart21stCIN defense
3Jaguars red-zone defense vs Bengals red-zone offense
The Jaguars' red-zone defense ranks 2nd in red-zone touchdown rate (20% allowed, 10 trips faced) and faces a Bengals red-zone offense ranked 22nd (50%, 8 trips).
22ndCIN offense20 spots apart2ndJAX defenseSmall sample, read with care Why sample size matters

When the Jaguars have the ballEdge JAX · +8 ranks

JAX dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCIN pass defense

6th+0.2686 dropbacks

-0.07 allowed133 dropbacks faced7th

JAX run gameEPA per rushCIN run defense

2nd+0.0981 rushes

JAX +8

-0.16 allowed50 rushes faced10th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Bengals have the ballEdge JAX · +11 ranks

CIN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackJAX pass defense

14th+0.12113 dropbacks

JAX +11

-0.11 allowed98 dropbacks faced3rd

CIN run gameEPA per rushJAX run defense

13th-0.0563 rushes

-0.10 allowed67 rushes faced13th

Third downEdge JAX · +17 ranks

JAX third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCIN third-down defense

4th54.5%33 third downs

JAX +17

43.6% allowed39 third downs faced21st

CIN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateJAX third-down defense

8th46.3%41 third downs

30.0% allowed30 third downs faced4th

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge JAX · +20 ranks

JAX red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCIN red-zone defense

2nd89%9 trips

27% allowed11 trips faced3rd

CIN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateJAX red-zone defense

22nd50%8 trips

JAX +20

20% allowed10 trips faced2nd

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge CIN · +18 ranks

JAX big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCIN defense against big plays

9th10.2%167 plays

JAX +16

10.9% allowed183 plays faced25th

CIN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateJAX defense against big plays

6th10.8%176 plays

CIN +18

10.9% allowed165 plays faced24th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge JAX · +13 ranks

JAX pass protectionsack rateCIN pass rush

8th4.7% sacked86 dropbacks

7.5% of dropbacks133 dropbacks faced7th

CIN pass protectionsack rateJAX pass rush

18th6.2% sacked113 dropbacks

JAX +13

8.2% of dropbacks98 dropbacks faced5th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversNo big edge

JAX ball securityturnovers per gameCIN takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game3 games

1.7 takeaways a game3 games6th

CIN ball securityturnovers per gameJAX takeaway defense

7th0.7 giveaways a game3 games

2.0 takeaways a game3 games2nd

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: JAX 3 games, 167 offensive and 165 defensive plays · CIN 3 games, 176 offensive and 183 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Walker LittleLT→ Anton Harrison

Davon GodchauxRDT→ DaVon Hamilton

Dennis GardeckSLB→ Ruke Orhorhoro

Montaric BrownRCB→ Jarrian Jones

Jessie Bates IIISS→ Eric Murray

Ja'Marr ChaseWR→ Mitchell Tinsley

Oren BurksSLB→ Kris Jenkins Jr.

Tacario DavisLCB→ DJ Ivey

Bryan CookFS→ PJ Jules

AwayJaguars5 changes