Broncos 26, Panthers 21: drive chart, EPA and box score

Week 9 · Sun, Nov 8 · Bank of America StadiumFinal

Final

	1	2	3	4	T
DEN	10	3	0	13	26
CAR	0	7	7	7	21

Home · 3-5CarolinaPanthers21

At a glanceUpdated Nov 10, 2026, 7:53 PM ET

The Denver Broncos beat the Carolina Panthers 26-21 on Sun, Nov 8 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC (Week 9, 2026 season). Records after the game: Broncos 7-2, Panthers 3-5. B.Young (CAR) led all players with +7.6 EPA on 43 dropbacks.

Who won Broncos vs Panthers?

The Denver Broncos won 26-21. By quarter: DEN 10-3-0-13, CAR 0-7-7-7.

Who was the best player in Broncos vs Panthers?

By expected points added: B.Young (CAR, +7.6 EPA on 43 dropbacks), B.Nix (DEN, +7.3 EPA on 39 dropbacks) and P.Bryant (DEN, +5.5 EPA on 5 targets).

What was the turning point of Broncos vs Panthers?

The biggest swing in win probability (32 points toward the Broncos) came in Q4 at 1:24: (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (N.Bonitto) [N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-N.Bonitto at DEN 44.The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Cite this page

Pigskin Nightly, “Broncos 26, Panthers 21: Week 9 recap”, https://pigskinnightly.com/games/2026-11-08-den-at-car (updated 2026-11-11).

How we calculate Plain-text version Report an error

The Verdict

Week 9 issue →

Week 9RobbedGame file →

Broncos43% success · +0.03 EPA/play

2621

Panthers47% success · +0.10 EPA/play

DEN 21% deserveddeserved 79% CAR

Panthers played like a 4.4-point better team. A team that plays like that wins 79% of the time. Panthers lost.

Deserved marginCAR by 4.4

Real marginDEN by 5

Luck pts DEN+4.5

Luck pts CAR−2.9

The swingQ4 1:24 · CAR · −33 pts of win probability. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play…

Flags that moved this game

1Defensive Pass InterferenceCAR → helped DEN · Wk 9 Q1 14:47 · (Shotgun) 63-A.Palczewski reported in as eligible. 10-B.Nix pass incomplete deep left to 11-T.Franklin (31-C.Thornton). PENALTY…+10.2 WP
2Roughing the PasserDEN → helped CAR · Wk 9 Q4 3:18 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep left to 13-J.Metchie to DEN 9 for 25 yards (30-T.Rapp). PENALTY on DEN-99-Z.Allen, Roughing the…+7.3 WP

Deserved win probability from the snaps, fumble bounces evened out. How we judge

From the Lab

This game, re-drawn

All Lab tools →

Game DNA153 plays, one strand2 lead changes · 9 explosive plays · downloadable poster →

Officiating crewAlan Eck21 accepted flags in this game · 14.3 a game this season (about league average)Market vs SnapsLine: DEN by 3 · Snaps: CAR by 4.4Broncos covered; the snaps say Panthers should have

26@21

Week 9

If the Panthers had fallen on their own fumble

Panthers after the play3%what really happened

Q4 1:24 9-B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [15-N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-15-N.Bonitto at DEN 44. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

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Home win probability, play by play

The river

100%

Hover, tap or drag along the river to read any play. Arrow keys work too. Click to jump to its drive.

CAR ▲DEN ▼

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The five biggest swings

+32%Q4 1:24 · for DEN(No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Young sacked at DEN 44 for -8 yards (N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (N.Bonitto) [N.Bonitto], RECOVERED by DEN-N.Bonitto at DEN 44.The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
+23%Q3 1:35 · for DENS.Forsythe reported in as eligible. B.Young pass incomplete short left to T.Tremble (J.Strnad).Denver challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED.S.Forsythe reported in as eligible. B.Young pass short left intended for T.Tremble INTERCEPTED by D.Key (J.Strnad) at DEN -8. Touchback.
+11%Q3 11:30 · for CAR(Shotgun) B.Young pass short middle to D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.
+11%Q4 2:53 · for CARA.Palczewski reported in as eligible. B.Nix FUMBLES (Aborted) at DEN 19, touched at DEN 20, recovered by DEN-J.Coleman at DEN 8. J.Coleman to DEN 8 for no gain (P.Jones).
+11%Q4 10:17 · for DEN(Shotgun) J.Coleman right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Nix pass to C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

Every drive, on the field

CAR attacks →← DEN attacks

Q1 15:00FG9p · 47y · 3:51
Q1 11:09PUNT4p · 14y · 3:04
Q1 8:05TD10p · 81y · 6:42
Q1 1:23PUNT3p · 1y · 1:04
Q1 0:19PUNT3p · 19y · 1:13
Q2 14:06MISS7p · 47y · 2:22
Q2 11:44INT7p · 48y · 4:15
Q2 7:29TD14p · 86y · 6:02
Q2 1:27FG7p · 30y · 1:23
Q2 0:04HALF0p · 0y · 0:04
Q3 15:00TD6p · 65y · 3:30
Q3 11:30PUNT4p · 3y · 2:44
Q3 8:46INT12p · 87y · 7:16
Q3 1:30TD14p · 80y · 6:13
Q4 10:17PUNT3p · -8y · 1:36
Q4 8:41TD6p · 61y · 3:00
Q4 5:41TD12p · 64y · 2:36
Q4 3:05PUNT3p · -10y · 1:16
Q4 1:49FUM2p · 12y · 0:25
Q4 1:18END4p · 9y · 1:18

Broncos9 drives5scoring drives (3 TD)56%drives ending in pointsOWN 29avg starting field position2three-and-outs1turnovers incl. downs

Panthers9 drives3scoring drives (3 TD)33%drives ending in pointsOWN 27avg starting field position2three-and-outs2turnovers incl. downs

Scoring summary

Q1
11:09Field goalW.Lutz 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.3–0
Q1
1:23Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass short right to C.Sutton for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.10–0
Q2
1:27Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to T.Tremble for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.10–7
Q2
0:04Field goalW.Lutz 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.13–7
Q3
11:30Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young pass short middle to D.Waller for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.13–14
Q4
10:17Touchdown(Shotgun) J.Coleman right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. B.Nix pass to C.Sutton is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.19–14
Q4
5:41Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Nix pass deep left to P.Bryant for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. W.Lutz extra point is GOOD, Center-M.Fraboni, Holder-J.Crawshaw.26–14
Q4
3:05Touchdown(Shotgun) B.Young pass short left to T.McMillan for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. R.Fitzgerald extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Jansen, Holder-S.Martin.26–21

Team stats

DENvsCAR

312Total yards353

230Passing yards257

82Rushing yards96

4.8Yards per play5.7

27First downs28

6-10 · 60%Third down3-10 · 30%

0-0Fourth down3-3

2-4Red zone TDs3-4

25/37Comp / att28/39

3.0Yards per carry4.8

1Turnovers2

1 (−7 yds)Sacks allowed3 (−19 yds)

8 for 50Penalties13 for 119

31:55Possession28:05

Expected points added · nflverse model

The game in EPA

EPA per play+0.043+0.125

Dropback EPA+0.187+0.177

Rush EPA-0.174+0.009

Success rate43%47%

Explosive plays38

Plays6562

Who moved the needle

B.YoungDropbacks: 43+7.6

B.NixDropbacks: 39+7.3

P.BryantTargets: 5+5.5

D.WallerTargets: 10+4.6

T.McMillanTargets: 6+4.3

T.FranklinTargets: 4+3.4

Cost their side the most

T.TrembleTargets: 6-3.7

B.NixCarries: 5-3.3

J.ColemanCarries: 17-2.2

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bo NixQB	25/37	237	6.4	2	1	1-7	51.7	91.8

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Jonah ColemanRB	17	57	3.4	1	9
J.K. DobbinsRB	4	18	4.5	0	11
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	1	5	5.0	0	5
Bo NixQB	5	2	0.4	0	1

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Pat BryantWR	4	5	56	14.0	1	26
Courtland SuttonWR	5	9	45	9.0	1	12
Evan EngramTE	4	5	33	8.3	0	19
Jonah ColemanRB	4	4	31	7.8	0	10
Troy FranklinWR	3	4	31	10.3	0	14
Jaylen WaddleWR	1	1	22	22.0	0	22
Adam TrautmanTE	2	3	15	7.5	0	10
J.K. DobbinsRB	1	1	4	4.0	0	4
Marvin Mims Jr.WR	1	2	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Jahdae BarronCB	8	6	0	0	0	0
Ja'Quan McMillianCB	6	4	1	2	0	1
Alex SingletonLB	6	2	0	0	0	0
JL SkinnerS	6	5	0	0	0	0
Justin StrnadLB	5	2	0	1	1	0
D.J. JonesDT	4	1	0	0	0	0
Devon KeyS	4	2	0	0	1	0
Pat Surtain IICB	4	3	0	0	0	0
Jonathon CooperLB	4	1	0.5	0	0	1
Taylor RappS	4	4	0	0	0	0

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Wil LutzPK	2/2	100.0	48	2/2	8

Carolina Panthers

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	AVG	TD	INT	SACKS	QBR	RTG
Bryce YoungQB	28/39	276	7.1	3	1	3-19	86.5	106.4

Rushing	CAR	YDS	AVG	LONG
Chuba HubbardRB	16	79	4.9	23
Bryce YoungQB	1	13	13.0	13
Trevor EtienneRB	2	7	3.5	5
Jalen CokerWR	1	-3	-3.0	-3

Receiving	REC	TGTS	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG
Darren WallerTE	8	10	90	11.3	1	21
Tetairoa McMillanWR	4	6	56	14.0	1	20
John Metchie IIIWR	2	2	40	20.0	0	25
Jalen CokerWR	4	5	29	7.3	0	11
Tommy TrembleTE	4	6	24	6.0	1	10
Mitchell EvansTE	2	2	20	10.0	0	11
Chuba HubbardRB	4	5	17	4.3	0	8
Brycen TremayneWR	0	1	0	0.0	0	0

Defense	TOT	SOLO	SACKS	TFL	PD	QB HTS
Tyrel DodsonLB	8	7	0	0	0	0
Devin LloydLB	8	5	0	0	1	0
Chau Smith-WadeCB	7	4	0	0	2	0
Nick ScottS	6	5	0	0	0	0
Patrick Jones IILB	6	4	1	3	0	1
Derrick BrownDT	4	2	0	0	0	0
Marco WilsonCB	4	3	0	0	1	0
Corey ThorntonCB	3	1	0	0	3	0
Tre'von MoehrigS	3	0	0	0	0	0
Trevis GipsonLB	3	0	0	0	0	1

Kicking	FG	PCT	LONG	XP	PTS
Ryan FitzgeraldPK	0/1	0.0	0	3/3	3

Before kickoff · Regular season through week 8 · rank out of 32

Where it was expected to be decided

1Broncos pass protection vs Panthers pass rush
The Broncos' pass protection ranks 5th in sack rate (3.7% sacked, 271 dropbacks) against a Panthers pass rush ranked 29th (4.1% of dropbacks, 269 dropbacks faced).
5thDEN offense24 spots apart29thCAR defense
2Broncos red-zone offense vs Panthers red-zone defense
The Broncos' red-zone offense ranks 4th in red-zone touchdown rate (68%, 22 trips) against a Panthers red-zone defense ranked 31st (80% allowed, 20 trips faced).
4thDEN offense27 spots apart31stCAR defense
3Panthers defense against big plays vs Broncos big-play offense
The Panthers' defense against big plays ranks 5th in explosive-play rate (7.7% allowed, 453 plays faced) and faces a Broncos big-play offense ranked 27th (7.3%, 452 plays).
27thDEN offense22 spots apart5thCAR defense

When the Broncos have the ballEdge DEN · +15 ranks

DEN dropback offenseEPA per dropbackCAR pass defense

22nd-0.00271 dropbacks

+0.06 allowed269 dropbacks faced16th

DEN run gameEPA per rushCAR run defense

13th-0.05181 rushes

DEN +15

-0.01 allowed184 rushes faced28th

Dropbacks include sacks and scrambles; rushes are designed runs. What EPA measures.

When the Panthers have the ballEdge CAR · +14 ranks

CAR dropback offenseEPA per dropbackDEN pass defense

16th+0.07305 dropbacks

-0.02 allowed340 dropbacks faced9th

CAR run gameEPA per rushDEN run defense

12th-0.05157 rushes

CAR +14

-0.02 allowed206 rushes faced26th

Third downNo big edge

DEN third-down offensethird-down conversion rateCAR third-down defense

32nd31.0%100 third downs

46.4% allowed97 third downs faced28th

CAR third-down offensethird-down conversion rateDEN third-down defense

22nd38.5%96 third downs

42.5% allowed120 third downs faced22nd

Conversions are third-down snaps that gained a first down or scored.

Red zoneEdge DEN · +27 ranks

DEN red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateCAR red-zone defense

4th68%22 trips

DEN +27

80% allowed20 trips faced31st

CAR red-zone offensered-zone touchdown rateDEN red-zone defense

10th64%25 trips

48% allowed25 trips faced8th

A trip is a drive with at least one snap inside the opponent's 20; the rate is trips that ended in an offensive touchdown. Small samples swing fast here.

Explosive playsEdge CAR · +22 ranks

DEN big-play offenseexplosive-play rateCAR defense against big plays

27th7.3%452 plays

CAR +22

7.7% allowed453 plays faced5th

CAR big-play offenseexplosive-play rateDEN defense against big plays

17th9.1%462 plays

9.2% allowed546 plays faced16th

Completions of 20+ yards and runs of 10+, per snap. Definition.

Pressure & sacksEdge DEN · +24 ranks

DEN pass protectionsack rateCAR pass rush

5th3.7% sacked271 dropbacks

DEN +24

4.1% of dropbacks269 dropbacks faced29th

CAR pass protectionsack rateDEN pass rush

23rd7.5% sacked305 dropbacks

DEN +10

6.8% of dropbacks340 dropbacks faced13th

Sacks per dropback. The public play-by-play has no pressure charting, so this is the sack side of it only.

TurnoversEdge DEN · +12 ranks

DEN ball securityturnovers per gameCAR takeaway defense

5th0.6 giveaways a game8 games

DEN +12

1.1 takeaways a game7 games17th

CAR ball securityturnovers per gameDEN takeaway defense

15th1.1 giveaways a game7 games

1.3 takeaways a game8 games14th

Interceptions and lost fumbles on offensive snaps, per game. Turnover rates are among the least stable numbers in football.

Sample: DEN 8 games, 452 offensive and 546 defensive plays · CAR 7 games, 462 offensive and 453 defensive plays. Rank 1 is the best offense or the best defense in each stat. Keys are the largest rank gaps (12+ spots) between an offense and the defense it faces, one per stat. Ranks are not schedule-adjusted.

Starters, confirmed

ConfirmedEvery game →

Confirmed from the official snap counts: at every position group the starters are the snap leaders. Expected lineup = today's depth chart, adjusted for the injury report.

Expected, did not start

Jaylen WaddleWR→ Pat Bryant

Riley MossRCB→ Jahdae Barron

Devon KeySS→ Taylor Rapp

Damien LewisLG→ Torricelli Simpkins III

Lee HunterNT→ Tyrel Dodson

Bobby OkerekeRILB→ Trevis Gipson

Jaelan PhillipsSLB→ Princely Umanmielen

Malcolm DeWalt IVLCB→ Corey Thornton

Will Lee IIIRCB→ Marco Wilson

AwayBroncos3 next man up · 2 questionable · 3 changes