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The Verdict2026 · NFC North · through Week 9

Bears logoChicago BearsThe Verdict

Bears are 7-2; the play says 6.8 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-1 in one-score games. On fourth down, Ben Johnson kicked away 5 of 14 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 14th of 32+0.27-2 real · 6.8 deserved · 5.9 Pythagorean
Luck points · 17th of 32−2.1fumble bounces −10.2 · opponents' kicks +8.1
Chicken Index · 24th of 3236%Ben Johnson · 3.2 expected points lost on 41 graded calls
Flags net · 25th of 32−30.3 WP72 flags for 570 yards against · 67 drawn

Every game, judged

latest first

Bottom lineNone of these 9 games went against the play.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Buccaneers logoBuccaneers40% success · −0.27 EPA/play
2427
Bears logoBears43% success · −0.19 EPA/play

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 5.7, a deserved win probability of 85%.

Deserved marginCHI by 5.7
Real marginCHI by 3
Luck pts TB+1.6
Luck pts CHI−2.4

The swingQ3 3:50 · TB · −28 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 88-C.Otton INTERCEPTED by 1-J.Johnson at CHI 33. 1-J.Johnson for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Bears logoBears52% success · +0.18 EPA/play
3417
Seahawks logoSeahawks32% success · −0.16 EPA/play

Bears earned it: the snaps said Bears by 15.8, a deserved win probability of more than 99%.

Deserved marginCHI by 15.8
Real marginCHI by 17
Luck pts CHI+1.6
Luck pts SEA+1.2

The swingQ2 0:37 · SEA · +15 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 11-J.Smith-Njigba for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-1Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces−10.2 ptsKept 3 of 11 own fumbles; won 3 of 6 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks+8.1 ptsOpponents made 12 of 15 field goals against an expected 13.6, and 12 of 16 extra points.
Own kicking−4.1 ptsMade 15 of 19 field goals against 16.4 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.1027th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-3Our pregame model in Bears games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Ben Johnson · 41 graded fourth downs · went for it 18×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 2.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1CHI · 4th & 2Ben Johnson chose Punt at own 25, Wk 8 Q3 13:41, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.59 EP
  2. 2CHI · 4th & 2Ben Johnson chose Punt at own 12, Wk 8 Q1 1:48, up 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.56 EP
  3. 3CHI · 4th & 2Ben Johnson chose Field goal at opp 12, Wk 4 Q2 2:32, up 4. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.53 EP
  4. 4CHI · 4th & 4Ben Johnson chose Field goal at opp 7, Wk 9 Q2 3:06, up 11. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: good.−0.44 EP
  5. 5CHI · 4th & 3Ben Johnson chose Punt at own 34, Wk 2 Q3 4:15, down 3. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.34 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1CHI · 4th & 1Ben Johnson chose Go for it at own 44, Wk 8 Q1 10:58, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  2. 2CHI · 4th & 1Ben Johnson chose Go for it at opp 8, Wk 2 Q4 8:30, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
  3. 3CHI · 4th & 1Ben Johnson chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 4 Q1 9:14, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  4. 4CHI · 4th & 1Ben Johnson chose Go for it at opp 1, Wk 4 Q1 0:27, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: touchdown.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 4 · opp 7 · Q2 3:069Field goalGo for it3.35–2.92−0.44good
4th & 3 · own 27 · Q3 10:409PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.97-1.21–−0.24punted
4th & 10 · own 25 · Q3 7:019PuntPunt-2.15-1.32–✓punted
4th & 9 · own 14 · Q3 0:339PuntPunt-2.83-2.00–✓punted
4th & 12 · opp 46 · Q4 8:109PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.44-0.24-0.34✓punted
4th & 1 · own 44 · Q1 10:588Go for itGo for it1.02-0.49–✓converted
4th & 2 · own 12 · Q1 1:488PuntGo for it-1.58-2.14–−0.56punted
4th & 6 · own 25 · Q2 11:228PuntPunt-1.73-1.32–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 25 · Q2 6:118Field goalField goal1.81–2.40✓good
4th & 2 · opp 20 · Q2 1:128Field goalnot graded2.80–2.65good
4th & 2 · own 25 · Q3 13:418PuntGo for it-0.73-1.32–−0.59punted
4th & 7 · opp 25 · Q1 9:587Field goalField goal1.32–2.40✓good
4th & 7 · own 24 · Q1 5:547PuntPunt-1.93-1.38–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 20 · Q2 8:577Go for itGo for it3.39–2.65✓converted
4th & 8 · opp 13 · Q2 7:087Field goalField goal2.29–2.84✓good
4th & 8 · own 28 · Q3 3:037PuntPunt-1.78-1.16–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 43 · Q4 9:407Go for itGo for it1.26-0.190.20✓converted
4th & 11 · opp 35 · Q4 8:027Field goalField goal0.32-0.111.46✓missed
4th & 15 · opp 40 · Q4 1:397Field goalnot graded-0.20-0.150.71good
4th & 10 · opp 48 · Q2 12:046PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.43-0.28–✓punted
4th & 7 · opp 38 · Q2 7:236Field goalField goal0.47-0.131.03✓missed
4th & 1 · own 40 · Q2 1:526Puntnot graded0.78-0.63–punted
4th & 12 · own 49 · Q3 6:576Puntnot graded-0.75-0.35–punted
4th & 11 · opp 32 · Q4 15:006Field goalnot graded0.51-0.111.82good
4th & 13 · opp 42 · Q4 12:196Puntnot graded-0.24-0.170.38punted
4th & 11 · own 23 · Q4 3:476Puntnot graded-2.36-1.43–punted
4th & 15 · own 38 · Q1 12:135PuntPunt-1.59-0.71–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 29 · Q2 13:265PuntPunt-1.47-1.11–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q2 1:565Go for itnot graded4.12–2.95touchdown
4th & 10 · own 10 · Q2 0:515Puntnot graded-3.20-2.29–punted
4th & 11 · opp 25 · Q3 8:405Field goalField goal0.97–2.40✓missed
4th & 3 · own 20 · Q3 4:205Puntnot graded-1.43-1.61–punted
4th & 4 · own 39 · Q3 1:165Go for itnot graded-0.48-0.67–converted
4th & 9 · opp 9 · Q4 12:585Go for itnot graded1.44–2.90stopped
4th & 3 · opp 40 · Q4 8:365Go for itnot graded1.09-0.150.71stopped
4th & 21 · own 21 · Q4 1:105Go for itnot graded-2.92-1.55–stopped
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 9:144Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓stopped
4th & 1 · opp 21 · Q1 2:564Go for itGo for it3.32–2.61✓converted
4th & 1 · opp 1 · Q1 0:274Go for itGo for it4.12–2.95✓touchdown
4th & 2 · opp 12 · Q2 2:324Field goalGo for it3.39–2.86−0.53good
4th & 6 · opp 12 · Q2 0:024Field goalnot graded2.68–2.86good
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q4 10:044Field goalnot graded2.80–2.94good
4th & 1 · opp 32 · Q1 10:523Go for itGo for it2.55-0.111.82✓converted
4th & 6 · 50 · Q1 2:023PuntGo for it (toss-up)-0.15-0.32–−0.17punted
4th & 3 · opp 3 · Q2 14:023Go for itField goal (toss-up)2.80–2.94−0.15stopped
4th & 11 · opp 11 · Q2 1:563Field goalnot graded1.17–2.87good
4th & 5 · opp 30 · Q3 10:213Field goalField goal1.28-0.112.02✓good
4th & 12 · own 13 · Q3 2:453Puntnot graded-3.13-2.07–punted
4th & 1 · opp 34 · Q4 2:003Go for itnot graded2.42-0.111.58converted
4th & 7 · opp 32 · Q1 5:082Field goalField goal0.86-0.111.82✓good
4th & 8 · own 14 · Q2 14:142PuntPunt-2.73-2.00–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 33 · Q2 3:312Go for itField goal (toss-up)1.54-0.111.70−0.16converted
4th & 29 · opp 49 · Q2 1:522Puntnot graded-1.10-0.30–punted
4th & 3 · own 34 · Q3 4:152PuntGo for it-0.53-0.87–−0.34punted
4th & 7 · own 43 · Q4 14:562PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.71-0.52–✓punted
4th & 1 · opp 8 · Q4 8:302Go for itGo for it4.30–2.91✓converted
4th & 5 · opp 5 · Q4 6:262Field goalField goal2.17–2.93✓blocked
4th & 2 · opp 12 · Q4 0:012Go for itnot graded3.39–2.86stopped
4th & 1 · own 21 · Q2 10:351Go for itGo for it-0.40-1.55–✓stopped
4th & 5 · own 30 · Q2 7:071PuntPunt (toss-up)-1.25-1.06–✓punted
4th & 4 · opp 22 · Q2 5:241Field goalField goal2.02–2.57✓good
4th & 9 · own 21 · Q3 11:391PuntPunt-2.34-1.55–✓punted

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Offensive Holding on CHI in Week 7, worth +7 points of win probability to NE.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Offensive HoldingCHI → helped NE · Wk 7 Q4 5:27 · 65-L.Newman reported in as eligible. 4-D.Swift left end to CHI 26 for 8 yards (4-C.Woodson). PENALTY on CHI-13-Z.Thomas,…+6.9 WP
  2. 2Intentional GroundingCHI → helped MIN · Wk 2 Q2 2:13 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right [55-E.Wilson]. PENALTY on CHI-18-C.Williams, Intentional Grounding, 13…+6.5 WP
  3. 3Roughing the KickerCHI → helped ATL · Wk 6 Q3 12:48 · 16-J.Bailey punts 41 yards to CHI 9, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 14-K.Raymond. PENALTY on CHI-9-J.Walker, Roughing the…+5.7 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingCHI → helped TB · Wk 9 Q3 7:26 · 84-C.Loveland right end to CHI 38 for 4 yards (45-J.Trotter; 23-T.Smith). PENALTY on CHI-88-S.Carlson, Offensive Holding, 9…+5.5 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserCHI → helped CAR · Wk 1 Q1 12:54 · (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 18-J.Coker ran ob at CHI 2 for 26 yards. PENALTY on CHI-55-D.Odeyingbo, Roughing the…+5.0 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
Offensive Holding2019647.6
False Start115420.0
Delay of Game62913.3
Defensive Pass Interference47810.6
Kickoff Short of Landing Zone4010.6
Defensive Holding6307.5
Intentional Grounding1136.5
Roughing the Kicker1155.7

Flags drawn

  1. 1Illegal Touch KickNYJ → helped CHI · Wk 4 Q1 7:47 · 14-A.McNamara punts 62 yards to CHI 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers. PENALTY on NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers, Illegal…+8.5 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserNE → helped CHI · Wk 7 Q2 2:21 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass deep middle to 10-L.Burden to NE 48 for 22 yards (22-C.Woods; 14-R.Spillane). PENALTY on…+7.4 WP
  3. 3Roughing the PasserMIN → helped CHI · Wk 2 Q2 6:18 · 18-C.Williams pass short right to 14-K.Raymond to CHI 45 for 5 yards (7-B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-15-D.Turner, Roughing the…+7.3 WP
  4. 4Offensive HoldingCAR → helped CHI · Wk 1 Q2 4:11 · 25-J.Brooks left end pushed ob at CAR 46 for 12 yards (29-T.Stevenson). PENALTY on CAR-50-R.Hunt, Offensive Holding, 10 yards,…+5.1 WP
  5. 5Roughing the PasserCAR → helped CHI · Wk 1 Q3 4:31 · (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short right to 15-R.Odunze. PENALTY on CAR-95-D.Brown, Roughing the Passer, 10 yards,…+4.8 WP

Garbage Time Tax

18.7% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 19th most of 32

Bottom lineKyle Monangai: 131 of 324 yards (40%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Caleb WilliamsCHI · passing · 1,546 yds11%
Luther Burden IIICHI · receiving · 644 yds16%
D'Andre SwiftCHI · rushing · 576 yds22%
Rome OdunzeCHI · receiving · 540 yds8%
Colston LovelandCHI · receiving · 363 yds13%
Kyle MonangaiCHI · rushing · 324 yds40%
Kalif RaymondCHI · receiving · 290 yds7%

Our picks on the Bears

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Bears 61% at home against buccaneers. 24-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Bears 43% at seahawks. 34-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Bears 56% at home against patriots. 24-30 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  4. 4Week 6We gave the Bears 50% at falcons. 31-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 5We gave the Bears 76% at packers. 7-31 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  6. 6Week 4We gave the Bears 67% at home against jets. 12-23 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  7. 7Week 3We gave the Bears 61% at home against eagles. 7-27 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  8. 8Week 2We gave the Bears 59% at home against vikings. 9-3 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Chicago Bears verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bears/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.