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The Verdict2026 · AFC North · through Week 9

Bengals logoCincinnati BengalsThe Verdict

Bengals are 6-2; the play says 6.0 wins. Record and play agree, within a game. They are 3-2 in one-score games. On fourth down, Zac Taylor kicked away 6 of 8 situations our model called a go.

This week's issueLeague Luck IndexHow we judge
Luck wins · 16th of 320.06-2 real · 6.0 deserved · 5.4 Pythagorean
Luck points · 14th of 320.0fumble bounces +0.8 · opponents' kicks −0.8
Chicken Index · 5th of 3275%Zac Taylor · 4.8 expected points lost on 25 graded calls
Flags net · 10th of 32+21.6 WP55 flags for 437 yards against · 73 drawn

Every game, judged

Robbed 1× · latest first

Bottom line1 of these 8 games went against the play. The biggest: CIN @ PIT, where the Bengals lost with a 76% deserved win probability. 1 more were coin flips.

How to read this chart
Each card is one game.
Under each team: its success rate (share of snaps that kept the offense on schedule) and EPA per play (expected points added: how much each snap improved its scoring chances; 0 is average).
The split bar is the deserved win probability:
how often each team would win if the game were replayed from the same snaps. Away team on the left, home team on the right, 50-50 at the tick in the middle. The longer side played better.
The stamp is the ruling.
Earned: the winner also played better. Coin flip: the winner deserved it less than 60% of the time. Robbed: the loser deserved to win at least 70% of the time (when this team won one of those, it reads Lucky).
Luck pts
(full cards): real margin minus deserved margin; plus means the scoreboard was kinder than the play.
Week 9EarnedGame file →
Bengals logoBengals54% success · +0.35 EPA/play
3417
Falcons logoFalcons47% success · +0.09 EPA/play

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 10.2, a deserved win probability of 97%.

Deserved marginCIN by 10.2
Real marginCIN by 17
Luck pts CIN+2.5
Luck pts ATL−1.8

The swingQ1 8:55 · CIN · +13 pts of win probability. (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Week 8EarnedGame file →
Titans logoTitans50% success · +0.16 EPA/play
3643
Bengals logoBengals58% success · +0.19 EPA/play

Bengals earned it: the snaps said Bengals by 2.2, a deserved win probability of 65%.

Deserved marginCIN by 2.2
Real marginCIN by 7
Luck pts TEN+1.4
Luck pts CIN−2.4

The swingQ4 13:40 · CIN · −27 pts of win probability. 30-C.Brown up the middle to CIN 46 for -3 yards (24-A.Taylor). FUMBLES (24-A.Taylor), RECOVERED by TEN-23-K.Winston at CIN 48. The Replay Official reviewed the loose ball recovery ruling, and the play was Upheld. The…

The luck sheet

All 32 →
One-score games3-2Decided by 8 points or fewer. Over a season teams win about half of these.
Fumble bounces+0.8 ptsKept 0 of 3 own fumbles; won 7 of 11 by opponents. League offenses keep 53%.
Opponents' kicks−0.8 ptsOpponents made 16 of 18 field goals against an expected 15.6, and 13 of 14 extra points.
Own kicking+7.1 ptsMade 12 of 12 field goals against 9.6 expected by distance. Skill, not luck: not in the luck total.
Net EPA per play+0.1266th of 32 · offense minus defense, passes and runs
Our picks on them5-2Our pregame model in Bengals games. All receipts

Coach on trial

Zac Taylor · 25 graded fourth downs · went for it 5×

Bottom lineThe calls against the model in this list cost 4.5 expected points in total.

How to read this chart
Each row is one fourth down:
distance, spot, score, what the coach chose and what our model would have done (a clear call, a lean or a toss-up).
The number on the right
is what the choice cost in expected points (EP, what a possession is worth on average from that spot): −1.00 means about a point thrown away. ✓ = the coach made the model's call.
The result
is what happened next; the grade judges the decision, not the outcome.
  1. 1CIN · 4th & 2Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 49, Wk 3 Q4 7:46, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−1.11 EP
  2. 2CIN · 4th & 3Zac Taylor chose Punt at opp 49, Wk 7 Q1 10:38, down 7. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.82 EP
  3. 3CIN · 4th & 2Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 39, Wk 8 Q1 9:40, down 3. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: punted.−0.81 EP
  4. 4CIN · 4th & 3Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 49, Wk 3 Q2 4:40, down 7. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.75 EP
  5. 5CIN · 4th & 3Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 46, Wk 7 Q2 7:06, down 10. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.64 EP
  6. 6CIN · 4th & 4Zac Taylor chose Punt at own 47, Wk 2 Q1 14:04, tied. Model: Go for it (lean). Result: punted.−0.42 EP

Brave and right

  1. 1CIN · 4th & 2Zac Taylor chose Go for it at opp 5, Wk 8 Q2 3:12, down 6. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: stopped.✓ EP
  2. 2CIN · 4th & 2Zac Taylor chose Go for it at opp 42, Wk 3 Q3 10:11, tied. Model: Go for it (clear call). Result: converted.✓ EP
How to read this chart
Every fourth down this season.
Go EP, Punt EP and FG EP are the expected points of each option from that spot: the highest is the model's call.
Cost:
how many expected points the coach's choice gave up against the best one; ✓ = he made the best call. Late-game and lopsided situations are listed but not graded.
SituationWkChoiceModelGo EPPunt EPFG EPCostResult
4th & 7 · opp 38 · Q2 0:299Field goalnot graded0.47-0.131.03good
4th & 8 · own 22 · Q3 13:349PuntPunt-2.18-1.49–✓punted
4th & 7 · own 31 · Q4 9:279Puntnot graded-1.47-1.01–punted
4th & 5 · opp 25 · Q4 4:419Field goalnot graded1.61–2.40good
4th & 2 · own 39 · Q1 9:408PuntGo for it0.14-0.67–−0.81punted
4th & 2 · opp 5 · Q2 3:128Go for itGo for it4.24–2.93✓stopped
4th & 13 · own 24 · Q3 5:568PuntPunt-2.41-1.38–✓punted
4th & 3 · opp 49 · Q1 10:387PuntGo for it0.52-0.30–−0.82punted
4th & 7 · own 38 · Q1 5:497PuntPunt-1.03-0.71–✓punted
4th & 3 · own 46 · Q2 7:067PuntGo for it0.21-0.43–−0.64punted
4th & 4 · opp 46 · Q4 2:167Puntnot graded0.45-0.24-0.34punted
4th & 9 · own 48 · Q1 5:345PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.60-0.37–✓punted
4th & 6 · own 32 · Q3 10:515PuntPunt-1.28-0.96–✓punted
4th & 2 · own 46 · Q4 2:455Puntnot graded0.57-0.43–punted
4th & 8 · opp 8 · Q4 2:135Field goalnot graded1.59–2.91good
4th & 6 · own 39 · Q1 7:504PuntPunt (toss-up)-0.84-0.67–✓punted
4th & 6 · opp 10 · Q2 10:074Field goalField goal (toss-up)2.75–2.89✓good
4th & 5 · own 46 · Q2 0:044Go for itnot graded-0.24-0.43–converted
4th & 10 · own 38 · Q4 10:394PuntPunt-1.31-0.71–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 21 · Q4 0:564Go for itnot graded1.31–2.61stopped
4th & 4 · opp 32 · Q2 10:203Field goalField goal1.34-0.111.82✓good
4th & 3 · own 49 · Q2 4:403PuntGo for it0.40-0.35–−0.75punted
4th & 2 · opp 42 · Q3 10:113Go for itGo for it1.32-0.170.38✓converted
4th & 9 · opp 20 · Q3 8:263Field goalField goal1.46–2.65✓good
4th & 2 · opp 25 · Q4 13:333Go for itGo for it (toss-up)2.44–2.40✓touchdown
4th & 2 · own 49 · Q4 7:463PuntGo for it0.76-0.35–−1.11punted
4th & 4 · own 47 · Q1 14:042PuntGo for it0.02-0.40–−0.42punted
4th & 17 · own 49 · Q1 10:152PuntPunt-0.97-0.35–✓punted
4th & 10 · opp 45 · Q1 4:472PuntField goal (toss-up)-0.24-0.22-0.16−0.06punted
4th & 27 · own 27 · Q2 10:162PuntPunt-2.64-1.21–✓punted
4th & 10 · own 28 · Q2 0:312Puntnot graded-1.95-1.16–punted
4th & 2 · opp 33 · Q3 12:322Field goalGo for it (toss-up)1.90-0.111.70−0.20good
4th & 5 · opp 39 · Q4 12:212Field goalnot graded0.70-0.140.88good
4th & 5 · own 23 · Q4 10:022Puntnot graded-1.70-1.43–punted
4th & 16 · own 27 · Q4 5:172Puntnot graded-2.35-1.21–punted
4th & 8 · opp 39 · Q4 2:162Puntnot graded0.30-0.140.88punted
4th & 6 · own 30 · Q1 7:491PuntPunt-1.41-1.06–✓punted
4th & 2 · opp 2 · Q2 0:101Field goalnot graded3.29–2.95good
4th & 16 · opp 37 · Q3 10:081Field goalnot graded-0.05-0.121.18good
4th & 6 · opp 40 · Q4 14:091Field goalField goal (toss-up)0.48-0.150.71✓good
4th & 7 · opp 14 · Q4 5:231Field goalnot graded2.08–2.82good

Flags against

Ledger →

Bottom lineThe biggest here: Roughing the Kicker on CIN in Week 3, worth +14 points of win probability to PIT.

How to read this chart
Each row is one flag:
the team in red was penalized, the team in green was helped.
The number on the right
is how much that flag moved the helped team's chance of winning, in points (100 = a whole game). When the play still counted, the play is included, so treat it as an upper bound.
Touchdown erased
marks a score wiped off by the flag, with the expected points it cost.
  1. 1Roughing the KickerCIN → helped PIT · Wk 3 Q3 6:48 · 19-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to CIN 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols. PENALTY on CIN-52-C.Johnson, Roughing the…+14.5 WP
  2. 2Unnecessary RoughnessCIN → helped MIA · Wk 5 Q1 9:48 · 47-R.Patterson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, NULLIFIED by Penalty, Center-46-T.Addington, Holder-48-B.Pinion. PENALTY on…+7.6 WP
  3. 3Defensive Pass InterferenceCIN → helped ATL · Wk 9 Q3 7:08 · (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London (0-D.Turner). PENALTY on CIN-0-D.Turner, Defensive Pass…+5.7 WP
  4. 4Defensive Pass InterferenceCIN → helped TEN · Wk 8 Q3 7:54 · (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass incomplete short left to 84-G.Helm. PENALTY on CIN-6-B.Cook, Defensive Pass Interference, 4 yards,…+5.2 WP
  5. 5Offensive HoldingCIN → helped JAX · Wk 4 Q1 12:27 · 9-L.Cooke punts 60 yards to CIN 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 81-D.Meyers to CIN 24 for 4 yards (47-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on…+4.8 WP
FoulFlagsYardsWP given
False Start115521.4
Offensive Holding1010019.2
Defensive Pass Interference66719.0
Roughing the Kicker11514.5
Defensive Offside63011.4
Defensive Holding52210.7
Face Mask4475.4
Low Block1152.5

Flags drawn

  1. 1Offensive Pass InterferenceJAX → helped CIN · Wk 4 Q1 3:44 · (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short left to 33-B.Tuten. PENALTY on JAX-87-N.Boerkircher, Offensive Pass Interference,…+6.7 WP
  2. 2Roughing the PasserJAX → helped CIN · Wk 4 Q1 1:24 · (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right intended for 5-T.Higgins INTERCEPTED by 12-T.Hunter at JAX 34. 12-T.Hunter to CIN 36 for 30…+6.7 WP
  3. 3Offensive HoldingJAX → helped CIN · Wk 4 Q2 5:10 · 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on JAX-73-R.Hainsey, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 3 - No Play.+5.6 WP
  4. 4Defensive HoldingTEN → helped CIN · Wk 8 Q3 2:16 · (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 45 for -8 yards (90-S.Thomas). PENALTY on TEN-25-Jo.Williams, Defensive Holding, 5 yards,…+5.3 WP
  5. 5Face MaskJAX → helped CIN · Wk 4 Q2 12:11 · (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to JAX 29 for 4 yards (4-J.Jones). CIN-1-J.Chase was injured during the play.…+5.0 WP

Garbage Time Tax

18.3% of the offense's yards came with the game decided · 21st most of 32

Bottom lineChase Brown: 88 of 397 yards (22%) came with the game decided.

How to read this chart
One bar per player,
as long as his season yards (passing, rushing or receiving).
Blue = yards with the game still alive.
Striped amber = garbage time: yards gained when the offense's chance of winning was already under 10% or over 90%, so the game was basically decided.
The percentage
is the garbage-time share of his yards (amber from 30% up).
Joe BurrowCIN · passing · 2,386 yds16%
Tee HigginsCIN · receiving · 758 yds21%
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN · receiving · 647 yds11%
Chase BrownCIN · rushing · 397 yds22%
Mike GesickiCIN · receiving · 252 yds17%

Our picks on the Bengals

Receipts →
  1. 1Week 9We gave the Bengals 70% at falcons. 34-17 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  2. 2Week 8We gave the Bengals 83% at home against titans. 36-43 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  3. 3Week 7We gave the Bengals 42% at ravens. 35-13 final, a win. (rebuilt)Wrong
  4. 4Week 5We gave the Bengals 74% at dolphins. 31-24 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
  5. 5Week 4We gave the Bengals 43% at home against jaguars. 22-17 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Right
  6. 6Week 3We gave the Bengals 67% at steelers. 27-30 final, a loss. (rebuilt)Wrong
  7. 7Week 2We gave the Bengals 56% at texans. 20-6 final, a win. (rebuilt)Right
Cite thisPigskin Nightly, "Cincinnati Bengals verdict, 2026", https://pigskinnightly.com/teams/bengals/verdict (2026)CC BY 4.0Data licenseCSVJSONEmbedHow it works

Every number on this page is computed from the 2026 nflverse play-by-play by our own models. Nothing is hand-picked.